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warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/29/2020 8:03:55 AM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
The details are unnecessary. It is clear that the Germans have far more than enough force to overwhelm Spain.
In programming, this is called "Information Hiding":
You can't see the forest if you bury yourself in the trees.
So, German planners will determine the right amount of force to bring to bear on Spain. They have more than enough to choose from.
warspite1
But why are the details not necessary? I thought we were intending to pursue an interesting discussion to look at the effects of the Germans going for a Med first strategy? I thought we would be looking at the troops required, the likely plan of attack, what this new direction means for the war generally, you know all the interesting things that a counter-factual sparks off. And above all we would be looking to gauge whether the Germans would be in a better position than had they gone with what happened historically. And if they were, then to what extent would that actually mean they had a chance of winning the war.
But instead, all you seem to be intent on providing is a superficial, high level 'staff study' that provides no detail about anything and effectively says this:
The Germans have got the biggest badass army in the world. We know the Spanish are weak. So lets just say some German 'army group' or other (it doesn't matter which as they are all homogeneous and besides they will be overwhelming), blitzes the Spaniards and then take Gibraltar. No details, no timing, other than we'll start at stupid o'clock (no R+R required for these super troopers), who will be supplied by super trains, and they will have it all wrapped up in time for tea and medals before moving on to the next, equally successful phase.
There will be little response from the British because they have noticed a motor boat - The Saucy Sue - moored in Boulogne harbour and suspect the Germans will cross the channel packed with tens of troops to storm the beach of southern England. The British are especially worried because they've seen a searchlight on the boat and suspect the Germans will come over at night, cunningly negating Fighter Command. Clearly with this level of threat, the British decide not to send any troops or aircraft anywhere else. Apparently there is proof of that because it seems there was no second BEF (I wonder where the Wiki article for that went?). Okay I exaggerated the point about the invasion but that was borne out of frustration with the whole stupid Northern France/Demonstration/Barges nonsense.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch - er I mean the Peninsular, the conveniently, but totally unrealistically, compliant Spaniards sue for peace as soon as a German counter occupies a hex in Madrid (cos that's the rulz) and, grateful to their conquerors the Germans, the Spaniards agree that its time to stop fighting and make love not war. They decide Franco is still their man despite presiding over this disaster. Hitler rolls his eyes and aims a playful smile at the restored Claudillo (despite forcing him into this action), and everyone is happy and free to live a life of religious fulfilment.
The Germans pile some highly trained, crack Italian peacekeepers in to police the joint just in case the Spanish do get a bit miffed about the needless death and carnage wrought on their already scarred country, the further physical damage to the infrastructure, and of course the small matter that they have no food and no oil. But hey, its cool, the Italians, who were complicit in the invasion will be loved and admired and will sort it. Besides we don't need to bother ourselves with details.
Meanwhile in phase II of the operation, those cunning Italians have decided to go along with a spiffing wheeze cooked up by those dastardly Germans. The Italian 10th Army cross over the Egyptian border. They jump up and down, blow a few raspberries and do a few moonies. The British, angered by such provocation, decide to attack with their massive WDF. BUT the Italians have a surprise in store. They don't hang around, but instead race back to Tripoli with their highly mechanised army staying out of reach of the British. The Italians only stop when they get to the Libyan capital, turn around and laugh at the British who are now surrounded as the Germans have charged through the Middle East to take the undefended Cairo from the rear!! D'oh says Churchill, we never saw that one coming.
Where did those Germans come from? Well in a "wash, rinse, repeat" of Spain, the German 'army group' have blitz'd through Turkey and the Middle East. No details necessary because like with Spain we are talking overwhelming force, super trains, no supply issues regardless of terrain, compliant victims, no politics, no alternate response allowed from the Allies or Stalin who is seeing his country threatened from Petsamo to the Caucasus (although to be clear, with all this going on in the west, Stalin is allowed to make threatening noises toward Japan of course). It's just all very simple and straightforward - where was Curtis Lemay when Hitler needed him?
Speaking of Japan, they can see what is happening in Europe and, [cough] quite understandably, they believe a Soviet attack on Manchuria is imminent (and there is probably a Wiki article to confirm that). They therefore don't take the historical route of trying to improve their dire economic and military situation and decide to do...... nothing*. A navy consuming 400 tons of oil an hour - despite not being at war (other than China), a USN that with it's latest announcement, will be out-building the Japanese massively, losses in China impacting the ability of the military to grow, an embargo of strategic materials.... but the Japanese decide to do nothing because it will help the Germans in this scenario (er I mean it will stop the Soviets from launching their imminent invasion)....
*Note Curtis Lemay is a little at war with himself on this, but he's confirmed that if the Japanese do decide to do something then of course it will be to attack the NEI only because apparently there is no way the Japanese would ever go to war with the US because of oil..........(weird, I'm sure I read a Wiki article on something called Pearl Harbor - maybe I imagined it).
I mean apart from the fact that it is total sloblocks, what have you just achieved by stating that? What does that superficial nonsense actually mean? What does that lack of any interesting detail actually tell us? What use is that Janet and John episode - er sorry, I mean 'staff study' to anyone?
In your scenario you now have the Germans as owners of the Med and North Africa from Gibraltar to Suez, and you have the German Army poised to attack the Soviets in May/June 1942. You have the USA not in the war and no sign of them entering. And so what? Because you've explored nothing, because you've provided no detail, there is no gauge as to what this alternate strategy may have cost the Axis compared to real life, there is no assessment of what the Allies could have done differently its just been a pointless Axis wet dream.
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