RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (Full Version)

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rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 10:37:22 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Allied #11. In Support of the Med. Post Naval (Combine).

CW Naval Allied #5.

A 6 range (6 a2a) Hurricane XII IND FTR2 is transported from Aden to the Italian Coast. Also, a CW transport loaded with 2 div is "returned" to Palermo and along with the Queens will be reorg by Wavell. If the turn continues the transport will be able to pick up a second FTR2 unit from England at get it back to Sicily during RTB assuming the allies get another impulse. In addition to replacing the 3 CPs lost/aborted from Cape Verde Basin last impulse the RN finally manages to get a supply CP into the Italian Coast.

CW HQ Reorg. Allied #5.
Wavell reorgs TRS & Queens in Sicily. Intention, assuming allies get another impulse this turn is for the TRS to load a strong FTR2 and the Queens to load mot corps from Great Britain and get them back to Sicily and/or Malta during the RTB.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/C348B70F06E443F2A54E14FD6C42CC19.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:07:05 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1941. Allied #5 & 11. The Med Combat Logs.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/80A11BC1B262426BA329AD65E5E4E7A4.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:08:05 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1941. The Med. Post RTB/Reorg.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/22EBC1AD1D994367A8E245546E5EBA22.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:10:51 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Atlantic. Combat Logs.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/24843DA371EC44CB8EF803B9CBBA1D1E.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:13:38 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Allied #5. Atlantic. The Threat.

CW Naval.

The RN hasn't taken a "full" naval in a while. If last impulse proves anything it proves how vulnerable British convoy lines are. So the Brits take a full naval and put out their ASW escorts and patrols in at risk areas.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/18578A2EDEDB40358412EDBF914447B9.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:18:14 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. The Asian Front. Combat Logs.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/B9723BF9477F4159B9F13B1002499821.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:21:55 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Allied #1. The Asian Front. End of Impulse.

Nationalist cav corps gallops through the seam between IJA Army Group North and IJN Army Group Center/South and is threatening to liberate Wuhan.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/C406E2598A2A438EB2BFEC06E015C20C.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:22:52 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Axis #3. The Asian Front. End of Impulse.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/8F045F6D104E43C080C08B7482B99695.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:23:37 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Allied #5. The Asian Front. End of Impulse.

Wuhan liberated.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/764AA29FFCD3478CB813FE59C6F6288C.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:27:41 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Axis #8. The Asian Front. End of Impulse.

1. Japan recaptures Wuhan. No reaction by US.
2. Nationalist cav corps deals Japanese attacking units a blow.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/9D1238DA38E9456CB41B2E27076101A9.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:29:28 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Japanese/Soviet Non-Aggression Pact.

Allied #1: 3rd Siberians railed out of Manchuria west to Krasnoyarsk, USSR. The USSR needs to rail a division into the pact area as soon as they can accomplish this. By the way, the I-16 in Vladivostok was returned back to the force pool by the Soviets at the start of the turn.

Allied #5: The Soviets FINALLY had a div in position to rail to Asia, which brings them in 100% compliance with their pact garrison requirements. It's been a long time coming due to poor planning on the Soviets part and this rail prevented them from railing out the blue factory in Kalinin. Hopefully the Soviets will get an opportunity to get that factory East before it's too late.

Allied #8: Zhukov HQ-A finally railed as far west as 1 rail move takes him.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/6CD8562310C5468395D3A61D36BC3F29.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:33:41 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. The Eastern Front. Combat Logs.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/885183FB6772480EAA0401D574A5135E.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:34:50 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. The Eastern Front. Allied #1. End of Impulse.

Blue factory in Tula railed east to Novosibirsk.


[image]local://upfiles/31901/AC32172FA460473F874A6173335713A9.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:35:39 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. The Eastern Front. Axis #3. End of Impulse.


[image]local://upfiles/31901/F92792C5488748618B43814728F8477C.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:36:42 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. The Eastern Front. Allied #5. End of Impulse.

The Soviets FINALLY had a div in position to rail to Asia, which brings them in 100% compliance with their pact garrison requirements. It's been a long time coming due to poor planning on the Soviets part and this rail prevented them from railing out the blue factory in Kalinin. Hopefully the Soviets will get an opportunity to get that factory East before it's too late.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/5FD30F36FFE041488996264309D8D006.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:38:00 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. The Eastern Front. Axis #8. End of Impulse.

German Action Choice: Adm Rader is pushing for a naval and Gross Adm Donitz for a combine (at a minimum). However, the land situation on the Eastern Front takes priority even with blizzard in the arctic and snow in the north temperate a land action is indicated and will be taken by Germany.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/2586AE5E4B7F4970A9096FBE9D31CB59.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:39:07 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. The Eastern Front. Allied #11. End of Impulse.

1. Kalinin blue factory railed to Karaganda.
2. If this turn doesn't end (50/50 that it will) then Stalingrad and the blue factory within will be German.
3. EOT D10=1, turn ends! Stalingrad saved, for now.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/F06ECE9B1CBE40DEB070334AEA2FC3BF.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:40:49 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Destroyed.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/CBE4BC7766EA442E86C4F572F191CA4F.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:41:14 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Repair.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/02094ED2B254462AACBC917D2A8AA5E7.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:42:06 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Partisans.

5 countries check for partisans: (1) CHI=7 (1 partisan), (2) NEI=92 (no), (3) BUR=54 (no), (4) YUG=52 (no) and (5) FIC=99 (no).

Chinese partisans deny Japan a Chinese RP.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/C7D1C74AA85F4A66AA9B61AB70FFE76B.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:43:26 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. US Entry.

1. Prior: GE/IT=42/30 (30% DOW Success) & JPN=38/29 (30%). US gets 2 draws.
2. 1st draw, GE/IT=4-val. GE/IT=48/30 (60%) & JPN=40/29 (40%).
3. 2nd draw, JPN=3-val. GE/IT=50/30 (70%) & JPN=45/29 (70%).
3. The US reaches the trigger point for both Germany/Italy and Japan to DOW the US.
4. If the allies move first then the US, starting with Germany/Italy, the allies will check to see if they attempt a DOW.
5. If D10 <= DOW %/10 then they will attempt. If they succeed at DOW on Germany/Italy or don't make the attempt then they will check to see if they attempt DOW on Japan.
6. Going to get interesting.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/91A1F5450D814356B834A40AC14AE87E.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:44:12 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Economics.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/F02A2A522B0244AEB245FB643F0CB81E.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:44:50 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Build Spiral. Axis.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/ABE118D766724E69AED7243A1DDB109C.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:45:11 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Build Spiral. Allied.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/5045C8E9F9FD4F1E8BD752DC5E5913AA.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:45:40 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Global Map. Control.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/5DC601E6DCFC40F5924D8C97EF7B3768.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:46:11 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Global Map. Units.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/B375E74CDE3A42D1BB33D2548704BE0C.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:46:35 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Global Map. Active Axis.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/332B0F5DF4F4406B9B65D4F1B2C059CA.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:46:52 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Global Map. Active Allied.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/5D09FD9756AE41ECB1A8B8CFFC3D72EF.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/9/2020 11:47:20 PM)

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Victory Totals.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/C39F31375F1B4299BE0ADCC0D3793287.jpg[/image]



Courtenay -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/10/2020 6:14:04 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. US Entry.

1. Prior: GE/IT=42/30 (30% DOW Success) & JPN=38/29 (30%). US gets 2 draws.
2. 1st draw, GE/IT=4-val. GE/IT=48/30 (60%) & JPN=40/29 (40%).
3. 2nd draw, JPN=3-val. GE/IT=50/30 (70%) & JPN=45/29 (70%).
3. The US reaches the trigger point for both Germany/Italy and Japan to DOW the US.
4. If the allies move first then the US, starting with Germany/Italy, the allies will check to see if they attempt a DOW.
5. If D10 <= DOW %/10 then they will attempt. If they succeed at DOW on Germany/Italy or don't make the attempt then they will check to see if they attempt DOW on Japan.
6. Going to get interesting.

That #5 is very conservative. If the US has a 70% chance, they should take it, because their odds really can't improve very much. 60% is pretty good, too. 50% is dubious.



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