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rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (10/29/2020 1:57:47 AM)
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Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Initiative.
1. Axis +1 and win ties.
2. Axis=4+1=5, Allied=8. Allies with the first roll.
3. Given all that's at stake even with the lousy weather forecast for Europe, the axis elect to re-roll.
4. No advantage for 2nd roll but axis still win ties.
5. Axis=4, Allied=4, and a good thing they do. Axis win the initiative and elect to move first.
A bit of elaboration on #3 above is necessary. What's at stake is that if the allies get the initiative and move first then there's a very good chance that the US will "preemptively" DOW Japan and Japan will lose the surprise advantage necessary to invade the Dutch East Indies, Philippines and elsewhere.
Now speaking of Japan declaring war on the US, well actually the Western Allies. Frankly speaking Japan is only partially prepared for their DOW on the Western Allies. However, with the US at 70% DOW success (for both Japan and Germany) it was imperative that the axis move first and get the jump on the US before they could get the jump on them. Japan has four key units (Yamamoto HQ-I, Imp Guard Mar, 1st inf div & 2nd inf div) tied up in Southern China against the Nationalist and with no short-term disengagement of these units in sight. This leaves them with the bare minimum of forces for their surprise invasion impulse to take key oil RPs, Hong Kong, Rabul, invade the Philippines and Malaya. In fact, getting forces down to Malaya will require double duty of the two divisions that are to take the Balikpapan and Tarakan Oil.
[image]local://upfiles/31901/94BBB8BB0C1D41F4AF0A7C54CF82E02A.jpg[/image]
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