RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (Full Version)

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Evoken -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/20/2020 12:22:17 PM)

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BBfanboy -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/20/2020 3:06:53 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

M-M is right about shipping from LA to Panama to Cape Town...they need to be free units.[:(]

So I need to calculate out what my PP future usage will be needed as American troops arrive in Cape Town and be prepared.

Here is a list of troops at sea...headed to Suva is the American 34th Rgt & friends off Hawaii...the British off map reinforcements don't show up on this list.

In two days at most, I need to start allocating Catalina squadrons to tracking the India/Oz invasion from the Java area..which means they can't do naval strike or transport troops.

Big priority though will be air lifting out the HQc III Indian Corp from Malaya to India....it can really add to the defense, but where? Calcutta? Bombay? Madras? Viz?



[image]local://upfiles/44178/01D8DE03B74E4EF3A046A3CB142B530B.jpg[/image]

The two critical bases to keep in India are Bombay and Karachi. They are close enough to Aden to receive reinforcements and have some industry. They are also spawning bases.
Note that the British units arriving at Aden are all assigned to unrestricted HQs - no PP required.
I don't think you can hold any of the islands west of India until you have lots of aircraft to defend against KB and threaten it with bombers - especially TBs. Beaufighters are your friend!

The British fleet should be held where it can dodge off-map when KB comes calling, unless you intend to get the withdrawing ships sunk. The British fleet can deliver a nasty bite if Japan has weakly escorted convoys but it cannot compete with KB or strong LBA. US air power is the filler they need.

And don't discount the Indian units - if you get enough supply into India for the units to fill out their TOE, they gain morale and experience much more quickly than when they are start-up fragments. I think support squads are important for this.

After a couple of months of game play, you should be able to reshuffle the garrisons - putting minimum AV units in each base to free up larger AV units - to create a fighting force from the best units. Key equipment will be AA guns and A/T guns.



RangerJoe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/20/2020 7:37:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Then Oldendorf can have a bunch of battleships to play with.


This early, using the slow BBs is just giving Japan victory points, they are so vulnerable to night attacks, especially by Iboats.

It is going to take prep for a bunch of bases, grabbing the easiest and countering his subs, betties and nells and zeroes. It won't be easy...early CAP traps will be key, as will running away at the right point.

But yes, today we are marshalling 90% of the USN to operations against the Kuriles all the way to Kunashiri and Shikotan.

I have add that I have never ever predicted what my opponent was going to do with any degree of accuracy in the short term. Longer term I have done ok...still, I think if he goes Oz, I can recover, If he goes Burma, I can recover, if he goes Socotra I need to do Kuriles plus.

I still plan on pushing everywhere the KB isn't...

4 Carriers in 2 weeks, 5 carriers in 74 days...plus everything I can pump into India now and prepare to hit his supply lines.


If he is going for India, his navy will be out of position for Hokkaido bombardments, his I-boats may be elsewhere, his air units will be busy in the Central Pacific with what you are doing, his ground reserves should be shifting to counter your Central Pacific moves. So you can move supplies north, which you would do anyway, and some units as well. If one of those is a paratroop unit, then they need no prep to grab a base - especially if it is undefended. Think of having Kingfishers and Torpedo Cats to attack cargo ships in the area.

Check the line for the North Pacific Winter Weather so you can retreat the battleships there which could severely dampen his air response. Up there at this time, the weather would be your friend. You could move in, not be seen, then bombard a base or two. Then move out. If you do not see any decrease in air activity elsewhere, then you could presume that the only air units that may be redirected would be his trainees.

If you move in subs first, they will give you an idea of his Naval Search range plus any ASW TFs in that area. If you also send in DDs to sink the ASW TFs, that will help your submarine efforts. Any cargo TFs that they can sink will be a bonus for you.



Lowpe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/21/2020 11:35:22 AM)

Dec 16th, 1941

Marblehead is intercepted, but manages to break off. It was a close in fight exacerbating all the early USN weaknesses and multiplying IJN strengths...so if she can escape from this it is a big win.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Singkawang at 56,88, Range 4,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Ashigara
TB Hiyodori
TB Hayabusa

Allied Ships
CL Marblehead, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Barker
DD Bulmer
DD Stewart
DD Paul Jones
DD Parrott

Reduced sighting due to 3% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Overcast Conditions and 3% moonlight: 4,000 yards



Lowpe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/21/2020 11:35:59 AM)

Dutch subs are thick in this area...my experience is once this fuel laden ships start to burn, nothing can save them until they are out of fuel in the holds.

Later in the day, the Dutch put another sub into her and the previously hit merchantman.[:)]

[image]local://upfiles/44178/6ECD8FCD14D64F749D53521489FAB40A.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/21/2020 11:42:45 AM)

Over China, the Flying Tigers sweep...



[image]local://upfiles/44178/F23A03515B814B3DACC2235243E0200F.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/21/2020 11:44:51 AM)

Interesting!

[image]local://upfiles/44178/0648250486EE4BF1AA6D2B55246E6995.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/21/2020 11:51:50 AM)

The tip of the spear!

[image]local://upfiles/44178/3BC89440C27947EBA2FDDE3FE6BF5D37.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/21/2020 11:58:22 AM)

The Spear!



[image]local://upfiles/44178/0411AB36489C4BCEA85736175E50AEC2.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/21/2020 12:11:51 PM)

China -- just noticed the IJA troops near Pingsiang have started moving west. Interesting.

[image]local://upfiles/44178/B811085E688A4B80A225EFC6BE3798C6.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/21/2020 12:16:05 PM)

Ouch, I accidentally left a Buffalo squadron on CAP that I moved...over Rangoon. Oscars had a field day among the them.



[image]local://upfiles/44178/68A134AADF4649F59BB4BF435B87B759.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/21/2020 12:26:01 PM)

Philippines and Marianas

[image]local://upfiles/44178/2F075FC695B2471EA96193FDF6403811.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/21/2020 1:15:52 PM)

I think Japan is coming for the islands looking to establish a complete blockade of India...

However, he could as easily be just coming for Ceylon which will be stripped of all fuel and supply by tomorrow at the latest.

Or even a fast landing at Pegu/Diamond Harbor etc.




Lowpe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/21/2020 1:35:06 PM)

Pretty impressive speed...too bad their torpedoes have a high dud rate.

Anyhow, need to use them well to merit sending them over here.



[image]local://upfiles/44178/5B919FA3531C43C0ACABF07DEA300643.jpg[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/21/2020 1:44:51 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

The Spear!



[image]local://upfiles/44178/0411AB36489C4BCEA85736175E50AEC2.jpg[/image]

You and others called it - a full court press into the IO and presumably an attack on India/Ceylon. For now, it looks like hunting the British fleet and merchies - no amphibs yet. I think you are also right that he will gather troops from Java after it is conquered to go to India, but he might be tempted to send them to take Palembang first. That would give you a couple of weeks delay.



BBfanboy -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/21/2020 1:48:51 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Philippines and Marianas

[image]local://upfiles/44178/2F075FC695B2471EA96193FDF6403811.jpg[/image]

Either he is expecting the Guam AF to go to level 2 soon or he is just using it as a transit point between the HI and the Marshalls or Carolines.



Mahrgell -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/21/2020 2:23:59 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Ouch, I accidentally left a Buffalo squadron on CAP that I moved...over Rangoon. Oscars had a field day among the them.



[image]local://upfiles/44178/68A134AADF4649F59BB4BF435B87B759.jpg[/image]


Japanese lost 9 ship VP, Allies lost only 8 ship VP, according to the Bureau of Propaganda.
The tide has turned, you are now clearly winning! [:D]



Lowpe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/22/2020 12:25:22 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

You and others called it - a full court press into the IO and presumably an attack on India/Ceylon. For now, it looks like hunting the British fleet and merchies - no amphibs yet. I think you are also right that he will gather troops from Java after it is conquered to go to India, but he might be tempted to send them to take Palembang first. That would give you a couple of weeks delay.



I would be 100%shocked if this gaggle of shipping didn't have troops with it. All the times I have been invaded it is rare that I spot troop carrying ships.

This is far, far too much to send merely hunting British Fleet.



Encircled -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/22/2020 12:33:28 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

You and others called it - a full court press into the IO and presumably an attack on India/Ceylon. For now, it looks like hunting the British fleet and merchies - no amphibs yet. I think you are also right that he will gather troops from Java after it is conquered to go to India, but he might be tempted to send them to take Palembang first. That would give you a couple of weeks delay.



I would be 100%shocked if this gaggle of shipping didn't have troops with it. All the times I have been invaded it is rare that I spot troop carrying ships.

This is far, far too much to send merely hunting British Fleet.


On the other side though, he could be just trying to stop reinforcements reaching Palembang/Singapore.

Its still a very risky move to go for India with the DEI not yet secure.

(but I do agree with your assessment!)



Alfred -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/22/2020 12:38:26 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

You and others called it - a full court press into the IO and presumably an attack on India/Ceylon. For now, it looks like hunting the British fleet and merchies - no amphibs yet. I think you are also right that he will gather troops from Java after it is conquered to go to India, but he might be tempted to send them to take Palembang first. That would give you a couple of weeks delay.



I would be 100%shocked if this gaggle of shipping didn't have troops with it. All the times I have been invaded it is rare that I spot troop carrying ships.

This is far, far too much to send merely hunting British Fleet.


Of course there are troops embarked. The only sound reason for capturing both bases on either side of the Sunda Strait, and then not immediately moving forward in force to both Palembang and Batavia is that with Singapore still in Allied hands (and Medan) the troops are earmarked for action elsewhere and fleet movement operational secrecy is maximised by sailing through the Sunda Strait.

Japan capturing Ceylon is not going to come close to compensate for losing Saipan/Guam/Tinian. Nor compensate for 4Es attacking from a fully supplied Luzon.

Alfred



Lowpe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/23/2020 12:43:23 PM)

Turn is away...finally. Wedding this week, lots of family time and the wife hurt her back.

Anyway: Lots of little strikes again, getting aggressive with British fleet, perhaps too aggressive.

Looks like maybe a Palembang invasion is scheduled, not sure since I spotted BB in the task force and they can't get there, but we are planning on it...

Bought out the HQc III Indian and flying it up to Burma. Along with a Command HQ it should really bolster the defense.




RangerJoe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/23/2020 12:49:20 PM)

Well, maybe it is time to brush off your massage skills or hire a nice, pretty, young one [:D] - for your wife! [:-]

As far as weddings go, men should get married on their birthdays. If it was they day that they were born, it might as well be the day that they die. So long, free wheeling bachelorhood!



GetAssista -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/23/2020 12:52:33 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
... Wedding this week, lots of family time and the wife hurt her back.

Man, that's a tad harsh. Your first wife only hurt her back and you already plan another wedding? [:D] Best wishes and quick recovery to her!


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred
Japan capturing Ceylon is not going to come close to compensate for losing Saipan/Guam/Tinian. Nor compensate for 4Es attacking from a fully supplied Luzon.

Seriously, I don't see how Marianas capture in the beginning of 42 is a noticeable blow to Japan. Them can be easily recaptured, there is ample time even after the bonus amphibious period. More like free VPs from the Allied LCUs involved, and anything else committed to a futile defence



witpqs -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/23/2020 1:14:40 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
... Wedding this week, lots of family time and the wife hurt her back.

Man, that's a tad harsh. Your first wife only hurt her back and you already plan another wedding? [:D] Best wishes and quick recovery to her!


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred
Japan capturing Ceylon is not going to come close to compensate for losing Saipan/Guam/Tinian. Nor compensate for 4Es attacking from a fully supplied Luzon.

Seriously, I don't see how Marianas capture in the beginning of 42 is a noticeable blow to Japan. Them can be easily recaptured, there is ample time even after the bonus amphibious period. More like free VPs from the Allied LCUs involved, and anything else committed to a futile defence

The amphibious bonus will be expired so the operations to recapture them will be much more costly.



Alfred -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/23/2020 1:27:43 PM)

Japan does not have the assets to recapture the Marianas and win in India. Period.

Japanese land assets have purposely not be committed to date in any meaningful manner. They aren't there moving to capture Singapore. They aren't within sight of Palembang. They aren't on Java or Luzon in overwhelming force. Which means they are being husbanded for some other operation. That operation is clearly not those mentioned for the simple reason that if they were meant to be so deployed then valuable time has been wasted for no net benefit.

The husbanded assets are clearly for a Hail Mary operation aimed at auto victory. Lowpe's search indicates the target is India. A couple of Japanese divisions is not going to achieve much in India. Japan will need a substantial land commitment and the presence of the KB. The Bay of Bengal is a fair distance away from the Marianas and the Marianas can not be recaptured without the full support of the KB. Japan either proceeds with the Indian operation and losses the Marianas, or it has to severely weaken the Indian operation in order to attempt to recapture the Marianas. All this takes time, which Japan does not possess.

If Japan had followed a standard plan of securing Luzon, Singapore, Palembang and Java in a timely manner, it would have assets close enough to the Marianas to probably reinforce them in time to prevent their loss, and if not certainly blockade them and ensure their prompt recapture. At the very least Japanese assets will need to be retasked at a cost of time. An Allied move on the Marianas (with foloow up to Luzon) from Hawaii/West Coast is the sole interior lines of communication available to the Allies which carries a significant threat to Japan's position at this stage of the war. All other Allied movements are too time consuming. Japan, by moving to India has temporarily lost the interior lines.

To date, all the evidence points to a greedy Japan which is disregarding basic military concepts.

Alfred




GetAssista -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/23/2020 2:03:04 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred
Japan does not have the assets to recapture the Marianas and win in India. Period.

Hardly any Japan ever won in India, even with mature JFB playing against a newbie like in Rader vs GreyJoy. Too much territory, too far away from Home Islands, too close to Aden. And by a win I mean capturing Bombay and Karachi of course, anything else is fleeting. I would be surprised if Lowpe's opponent is aiming at something truly exceptional with this opposition, and not the usual Calcutta industry grabbing secured by Ceylon and other islands. I also doubt he's counting on Lowpe allowing his Indian assets into a major encirclement. What remains is a regular well-trodden route which does not require each and every LCU Japan has. What njp72 is doing with bypassing seems to me more like an insurance for a quick capture and probably cutting off some Burma/Chinese guys in the process.

I tried the Karachi rush several times, bypassing everything. It's hard to pull off even against the hapless AI which does not understand the importance of the base and cannot trouble you in the bypassed areas. And the price of miscalculation is steep with all the modern emergency reinforcements coming in.

Marianas on the other hand.. How much does Japan need to recapture? Pretty modest for 42 - dominance in the CV air and bombardments to burn off Allied supply, all achievable with a fraction of assets and there is ample time too. Japan does not need much of its surface navy for India action anyway. No atolls in Marianas either.



Lowpe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/23/2020 2:04:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

Seriously, I don't see how Marianas capture in the beginning of 42 is a noticeable blow to Japan. Them can be easily recaptured, there is ample time even after the bonus amphibious period. More like free VPs from the Allied LCUs involved, and anything else committed to a futile defence


In, and by itself, I agree with you to a degree. But what can I do with it? Stay tuned.




RangerJoe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/23/2020 2:14:49 PM)

The annoyance factor would be high. The Marianas move inhibits movement to Truk so the move protects SoPac and Eastern Australia. It can also allow reinforcements and supplies to the Philippines. With a move to Iwo Jima, it makes it worse for the Japanese.



Lowpe -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/23/2020 2:15:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista
Marianas on the other hand.. How much does Japan need to recapture? Pretty modest for 42 - dominance in the CV air and bombardments to burn off Allied supply, all achievable with a fraction of assets and there is ample time too. Japan does not need much of its surface navy for India action anyway. No atolls in Marianas either.


I think you guys are looking at it the wrong way or like I am going to drop tons of troops in the Marianas. If I am abandoning Ceylon, what makes you think I would take and attempt to hold all of the Marianas or earlier even attempt to defend Socotra? Well, maybe my posts led you to think that...but therein lies the problems with most AFBs, I think.



There is never ample time for Japan. [;)]



GetAssista -> RE: Spanking Lowpe (NJP72 vs Lowpe (A)) (9/23/2020 2:37:28 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista
Marianas on the other hand.. How much does Japan need to recapture? Pretty modest for 42 - dominance in the CV air and bombardments to burn off Allied supply, all achievable with a fraction of assets and there is ample time too. Japan does not need much of its surface navy for India action anyway. No atolls in Marianas either.


I think you guys are looking at it the wrong way or like I am going to drop tons of troops in the Marianas. If I am abandoning Ceylon, what makes you think I would take and attempt to hold all of the Marianas or earlier even attempt to defend Socotra? Well, maybe my posts led you to think that...but therein lies the problems with most AFBs, I think.



Wait... you mean you will not come to the people of the Marianas as a liberator from the imperial oppression, to stay there, defend them and lead them to a new life? I thought only Japanese aggressors capture with a plan to plunder and destroy and then skedaddle when the heat rises. O tempora, o mores... where has the spirit gone [:D]



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