Winning and Losing: Metrics (Full Version)

All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> Gary Grigsby's War in the East 2



Message

Zemke -> Winning and Losing: Metrics (4/4/2021 9:48:29 PM)

What is your opinion of a good measure of success or lack thereof for both sides? A dicy question that is full of pitfalls, I know.

Casualties?
Historical Advance Rates objectives captured?
Prisoners taken or lost?
AFV Availability?

When as Germany would you "halt" for the winter? (Edit Added) Playing the Germans, I feel you CANNOT stop till the weather forces you to, because if you let the Russian sit, they are dug in to level 2 forts and are really hard to dig out. So the pressure stays on, no matter what, with few exceptions for units desperate for rest or replacements. Is this advisable?

As Russia, can I preserve my Army, and just let the Germans have what want they want till the strain of logistics finally halts them? With the Exceptions of Leningrad and Moscow, which I think you have to fight for.



GloriousRuse -> RE: To Loki100 (4/5/2021 12:55:19 AM)

I am not Loki, and also not in the top 5% of players, but I'll take a crack:

Losses- predominantly these concern Russian losses. It takes some very aggressive German play (or a disaster) to make their losses substantial enough to significantly alter the outcome. The one exception might be panzers, as the state of the panzerwaffe often determines the German ability to move dynamically rather than enter a slog fest on the offense, and their ability to buttress a line and react defensively since they can rarely afford depth to the degree the Russian can.

Less than 3.7M Russian losses in '41 is going to generally be a bad sign for the Germans and will generally result in a stronger and earlier winter offensive as well as a harder spring of '42, while more than 4M is a very strong position to be in come winter, forcing the Russian player into a choice between pushing the winter offensive hard or building for spring since he no longer has the men to do both.

VPs- the game is, in all but a curb stomp, not going to end in '41. The German player's real chance to either put it away or play for the minor victory by Dec '44 comes in '42. Generally speaking, the Germans need to have 56 more points than their historical counterparts to win, or reach a mere 14 points more than their counterparts to exceed the Russian historical score as of Jan '45. Other than capturing Leningrad, Moscow, or the Tula-Tambov-Ryazan triangle, the single biggest chunk of those VP is going to come in '41 based on speed. A German who is on average 1-2 weeks ahead of history will be in a very competitive position for '42 and the long game, while one who is 1-2 weeks behind is going to be in a position where he really has to make '42 count or hope he can hold Berlin through August '45...which is not, from anything we've seen, anywhere near as easy as WitE1.

Prisoners- not wildly relevant. They help out with Hiwis, but mostly this is a loss subset.

AFVs - if the Germans ever drop below 50% ready AFVs then their panzers are going to be quite vulnerable to counterattack even when they still have offensive potential, and below 1000 ready AFVs they're just hanging on. At a sort of macro level, the Germans start '41 producing around 135 AFVs a week, so losing more than that is a good indicator of a week that will have long lasting consequences for the panzers until they can hit an operational pause. If the soviets are ever leading the Germans by less than 2,000 tanks the balance of armor in the east is distinctly against them for the moment.

Calling it - Situational. A November-December drive really has one of two goals: pick up VPs, or cull the Red Army. If you're below 575, aiming to cross that line and thereby ensure you won't be knocked out in '42 seems well worth it. After that it becomes a judgment call versus culling the Red Army so they don't put 500k "free" men into their ranks while you dig. But generally, if you're pulling off before mid-November you really have to have a good reason.

Russian Fleeing Strategy - not really. German logistics can, as a rule of thumb, advance 6-8 hexes a turn depending on terrain. You really can't afford that rate of continuous advance as the Russians. Moreover, fighting is what sucks the strength out of the Heer. Logistics means it can't be replaced easily, but a motorized division that doesn't have to fight until Stalino is still going to carve through you like butter.



Bamilus -> RE: To Loki100 (4/6/2021 3:05:31 PM)

This is a really important thread and if you can change the title (IDK if you can) to something that describes this thread better, I think it'd help more people. The game does a great job of giving you tons of data but doesn't always give you barometers for that data. I found Glorious' post incredibly helpful.

One other piece of data I'd fine helpful is if anyone has found a good gauge for acceptable level of air truck/losses for Axis by end of 1941 (or other years).



jnpoint -> RE: To Loki100 (4/6/2021 3:16:20 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: GloriousRuse

Losses- predominantly these concern Russian losses. It takes some very aggressive German play (or a disaster) to make their losses substantial enough to significantly alter the outcome. The one exception might be panzers, as the state of the panzerwaffe often determines the German ability to move dynamically rather than enter a slog fest on the offense, and their ability to buttress a line and react defensively since they can rarely afford depth to the degree the Russian can.

Less than 3.7M Russian losses in '41 is going to generally be a bad sign for the Germans and will generally result in a stronger and earlier winter offensive as well as a harder spring of '42, while more than 4M is a very strong position to be in come winter, forcing the Russian player into a choice between pushing the winter offensive hard or building for spring since he no longer has the men to do both.

VPs- the game is, in all but a curb stomp, not going to end in '41. The German player's real chance to either put it away or play for the minor victory by Dec '44 comes in '42. Generally speaking, the Germans need to have 56 more points than their historical counterparts to win, or reach a mere 14 points more than their counterparts to exceed the Russian historical score as of Jan '45. Other than capturing Leningrad, Moscow, or the Tula-Tambov-Ryazan triangle, the single biggest chunk of those VP is going to come in '41 based on speed. A German who is on average 1-2 weeks ahead of history will be in a very competitive position for '42 and the long game, while one who is 1-2 weeks behind is going to be in a position where he really has to make '42 count or hope he can hold Berlin through August '45...which is not, from anything we've seen, anywhere near as easy as WitE1.

Prisoners- not wildly relevant. They help out with Hiwis, but mostly this is a loss subset.

AFVs - if the Germans ever drop below 50% ready AFVs then their panzers are going to be quite vulnerable to counterattack even when they still have offensive potential, and below 1000 ready AFVs they're just hanging on. At a sort of macro level, the Germans start '41 producing around 135 AFVs a week, so losing more than that is a good indicator of a week that will have long lasting consequences for the panzers until they can hit an operational pause. If the soviets are ever leading the Germans by less than 2,000 tanks the balance of armor in the east is distinctly against them for the moment.

Calling it - Situational. A November-December drive really has one of two goals: pick up VPs, or cull the Red Army. If you're below 575, aiming to cross that line and thereby ensure you won't be knocked out in '42 seems well worth it. After that it becomes a judgment call versus culling the Red Army so they don't put 500k "free" men into their ranks while you dig. But generally, if you're pulling off before mid-November you really have to have a good reason.



This kind of facts is really helpful. It can't be read anywhere as far as I know. Thanks.



loki100 -> RE: Winning and Losing: Metrics (4/6/2021 5:16:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zemke

What is your opinion of a good measure of success or lack thereof for both sides? A dicy question that is full of pitfalls, I know.

Casualties?
Historical Advance Rates objectives captured?
Prisoners taken or lost?
AFV Availability?

When as Germany would you "halt" for the winter? (Edit Added) Playing the Germans, I feel you CANNOT stop till the weather forces you to, because if you let the Russian sit, they are dug in to level 2 forts and are really hard to dig out. So the pressure stays on, no matter what, with few exceptions for units desperate for rest or replacements. Is this advisable?

As Russia, can I preserve my Army, and just let the Germans have what want they want till the strain of logistics finally halts them? With the Exceptions of Leningrad and Moscow, which I think you have to fight for.



I think this is really hard to address, in part for the reasons that Glorious Ruse identifies. Over time with #1 a set of metrics came into general agreement (changing a bit with patches), but we lack that corpus of games played for #2. In testing very few HtH games got into later 1942, we mostly used Stal-Berlin for the mid-game and Vist-Berlin for the late game.

Axis losses matter in that till say April 42 you really struggle to replace them. This is a product of the freight routines where replacements seem to be the last things on the trains. Thereafter it eases radically (and you get all the winter 'wounded' back). So the best guess is keep it as low as possible.

For the Soviets, GR identifies what seems to be the critical element, under 3.7m and the winter is going to be dire, over 4m and you have a chance to fend them off. Either way the Red Army will be up around 5m by May 42.

The key part to the VP game is I think the German player has 2 ways to win (assuming a reasonable match etc), The later 42 turn targets are feasible (if you can avoid a sudden death) which can make things rather fun [;)], if you miss then the next chance is December 44 if you hold the Soviets below the HWM. The more the Soviets are under pressure to match that, the easier it is for you to manage the mid-game. If they can sit, build up, stomp over you and rest again, you will never get the chance to lash back or take out over-exposed units etc.

November 41 can have 2 dynamics. One, you need the VP due to the Jan 42 test, the other you don't. What you do will look similar, in that an offensive is a good idea to trash Soviet CPP, stop them deploying exactly as they want etc, but the second is where you are doing that to your dynamics. Overall I think #2 does a decent job at rewarding the player who is in control of the wider situation.

Soviet run away? Nope, you have to fight - and there are real rewards, its not just something to do to avoid something worse.



GloriousRuse -> RE: To Loki100 (4/6/2021 6:01:11 PM)

Regarding air losses, it is almost always pilots and qualitative shifts that matter. Other than recon aircraft, the air frames will be there in the long run; you might have big bursts of violence that put a dent in short term capacity, but the production will keep up over time (particularly as the winter can be twenty weeks long at times) unless you're truly suicidal in employment. And even if you manage to keep your force pristine, at some point obsolescence is going to force you into newer models.

Pilots quality is the real long term factor. The LW starts with a truly exquisite set of pilots, with extraordinary skill/experience (in game high 80s through the highest possible 99) whit the VVS has a competently professional if not great set running from the 50s to the odd ace in the low 70s. Then the dying starts. The only way to get to those levels again is take trained pilots and have them fight to that point.

The replacement pilots are either trained or untrained - trained pilots generally being of reasonable-not-stellar quality based on the overall health of the respective air force at that point in the war. Untrained are...untrained. The germans kick out about 135 trained pilots a week across the Reich, while the VVS trains about twice that.

For the early war Germans this really becomes an exercises in slowly replacing the exceptional with the merely very good as losses build up. If they can keep killing Russians at 10:1, they may even rebuild to being brilliant, but that's far from a given. For the VVS this becomes a matter of replacing "OK" with "not OK" trained pilots, or if the losses are particularly bad, 'atrocious" untrained heroes of the motherland.

Now eventually the VVS will get better. Eventually the LW will get worse; if nothing else, the Allies will increasingly take their toll and the reduction in German training programs throughout the war will ensure it. It isn't going to be a case where the LW is bludgeoned to death in '43, or the VVS makes a miraculous off the ropes rebound in early '42, but slowly the freedom of action in the air is going to shift more and more away from the initial German dominance based largely on quality. Barring absolutely absurd outliers, this is going to happen. The question is how fast, and that is tied to losses.

What the "right" speed is for spending your air force is is a matter of opinion. What I can tell you is that the spectrum you're playing on is measured in months of capability, not years. Keeping a few good JGs won't change the fact that there are a whole lot of IL-2s coming your way in '43. The original VVS living is not going to produce a cohort of Russian Hartmanns. But they might be just the tool you need to tip the scales for one campaign season.



Zemke -> RE: To Loki100 (4/7/2021 8:51:52 AM)

Excellent answers, and have helped me already understand where I stand in my games.



Page: [1]

Valid CSS!




Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.4.5 ANSI
0.59375