Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (Full Version)

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sillyflower -> Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/23/2021 3:52:52 PM)

Game 1 at start of R 1st turn after the fascists invade the Rodina, our NM had climbed to 33 after suffering 187 casualties.

Game 2 in December army XP (tx to Nirosi below)was also 33 after 7 months of war and about 900 casualties. From memory (which is not 100% reliable) it was about 4 turns to get to 31.

Am I lucky in game 1 or unlucky in game 2, or both? Either way, it does seem a little too random to be fair to either side.



ncc1701e -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/23/2021 4:09:37 PM)

Hard to tell. I did not get exactly how NM is increasing:
1. Is it with losses?
2. Is it with destroyed units?
3. Is it with battles fought?



Nirosi -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/23/2021 4:12:43 PM)

I assume it is national XP (not morale)? If I recall correctly Alvaro mentioned in a post that is battles fought. Although inside that, but I guess there could be other variations such as loses... or not?



sillyflower -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/23/2021 4:25:45 PM)

I didn't keep a tally of combats but obviously there have been very many times more in game 2.

I also thought XP boost was tied to no. of combats, but ? also losses, but I'm less concerned about the parameters than what seems to be a huge random element




ncc1701e -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/23/2021 5:13:59 PM)

Agree the difference is huge but knowing the formula may help to understand why.



ncc1701e -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/23/2021 5:18:07 PM)

Did you run away? Did you try any counter attack even at low odds?



sillyflower -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/23/2021 9:16:51 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ncc1701e

Did you run away? Did you try any counter attack even at low odds?


You should know - you are my opponent in game 2 [:D]. I can't remember re our game, but no c/a yet in game 1 obviously



ncc1701e -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/23/2021 9:54:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

You should know - you are my opponent in game 2 [:D]. I can't remember re our game, but no c/a yet in game 1 obviously


I wasn't sure.

So you made two attacks only on one infantry corps near Leningrad. No other counter attack.

The majority of your losses was during the Kiev pocket where I did surround about 7 corps.
I took a souvenir.

Do units that surrender count in the increase of the experience?

[image]local://upfiles/46661/8B80B24DDBAB4A999C6265367B823641.jpg[/image]



Harrybanana -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/24/2021 3:29:11 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

Game 1 at start of R 1st turn after the fascists invade the Rodina, our NM had climbed to 33 after suffering 187 casualties.

Game 2 in December army XP (tx to Nirosi below)was also 33 after 7 months of war and about 900 casualties. From memory (which is not 100% reliable) it was about 4 turns to get to 31.

Am I lucky in game 1 or unlucky in game 2, or both? Either way, it does seem a little too random to be fair to either side.


I am guessing that I am your opponent in game 1 (just my luck). I have also found that there can be a large discrepancy from game to game in how quickly or slowly National Experience goes up. I think my worst was my game was with Hadros where I was the Allies. It took my US troops almost 2 years (and many many battles) to advance from 45% experience to 50%. But of course the Russian number is far more important. I have had games where the Russians have reached 50% (from a start of35%) by the Winter of 41/42 and other games where it has taken until the Winter of 42/43.



ncc1701e -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/26/2021 7:40:42 AM)

In this situation, 1942 is more than problematic for the Red Army imo.

@Alvaro, anything justifying this large discrepancy? Just would like to confirm how this is calculated.

Thanks



AlvaroSousa -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/26/2021 3:29:09 PM)

It has never been a problem. It is a random chance each time there is combat. The chance is small but always by 1943 the Soviets catch up



ncc1701e -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 10:13:41 AM)

The problem is that the Red Army now starts at 30% instead of 35%. When German player put a "death star" of 12 Panzer corps all together in one single point of the frontline, this is very difficult.

Before this modification, I was finding 1941/1942 just about right against a good German player. Now, I did not find a solution yet to save Moscow.



Harrybanana -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 3:51:29 PM)

I personally would be disappointed if the Axis massed their armour with Moscow as the objective and failed to capture it. However, if they are able to do this while at the same time capturing Leningrad and driving deep in the South than that would be a problem. Losing Moscow by itself is not fatal to the Russians, so long as the Red Army itself remains strong and they are able to hold territory elsewhere.



ncc1701e -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 5:50:16 PM)

I have a psychological problem. Losing Moscow is like losing the game for me. [:D]

Seriously, I must do something wrong.

For example, in this PBEM, Barbarossa started in April 1941. Withdrawal, in good order, since then with many battles lost in May, June, July and now we are at the beginning of August.

We are August 1st. Germans are at one hex of Leningrad. Four hexes of Moscow.

[image]local://upfiles/46661/C45DC1B79637436381D806F88D423D04.jpg[/image]



ncc1701e -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 5:50:50 PM)

My casualties.

[image]local://upfiles/46661/ABA29DD79F6F450C87C96F82AE092A46.jpg[/image]



ncc1701e -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 5:51:15 PM)

My forces.

[image]local://upfiles/46661/C4F0DEF762194E8FB58656E8A82F895E.jpg[/image]



ncc1701e -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 5:55:25 PM)

The Russian army experience is at 36% since it is now starting at 30% only.
I didn't understand the rationale for lowering it.

Anyhow, I have taken casualties. I am replacing them 200PP to 250PP per turn. But, so far, most of my units are barely at 32% experience.

I have Anti-Tank 1941 and Assault 1941 discovered since beginning of 1941.

Most of my received armies (the one forming by default in the Deployment window) are not even upgrading and are still at Assault 1939 or Anti-Tank 1939 (when I change the advancement).

I have bought 4 armies (Anti-Tank 1941) in April when Barbarossa started.
I have still Infantry Rifle Corps at Anti-Tank 1940 but at 30% experience. Few of them converted to half armies.
All my tank / mechanized corps are at Heavy Armor 1941 but are pushed like twigs.

And, I have seven forming armies that are not coming...

Is the Red Army strong enough for you?

[image]local://upfiles/46661/8A51A8B6841946AA94F29B0DE347F001.jpg[/image]



Flaviusx -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 6:36:49 PM)

Soviets got nerfed too hard in the last big patch, imo, and this because of a 42 Barbarossa that basically nobody ever bothers with. The effect here is to make 41 a lot rougher for the Sovs.

I'd like to see the experience hit reverted, and maybe even the hit to Soviet mobile units. Between this and the much improved BoA, the balance has definitely swung over to the Axis. I'm okay with the BoA as is, but with the UK tied down now and not very able to ship over PPs in 41, I don't think the Sovs need to be hit so hard as they have been.

There is a reason Sveint is doing wild things in this 1940 Barbarossa you are seeing. It might not work but prior to this patch it would not even be plausible to try this.



sveint -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 7:36:14 PM)

I'm just trying Barbarossa 40 for fun, I have no hopes of actually winning the game.

What nerfs hit the Soviets? So far I don't notice much. But I am losing my first game as the Allies catastrophically, the UK sure got hit hard (but in a good way, they were too easy before)!

In my latest game I am trying Barbarossa 39... [:D]



Harrybanana -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 7:42:48 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: ncc1701e

The Russian army experience is at 36% since it is now starting at 30% only.
I didn't understand the rationale for lowering it.

Anyhow, I have taken casualties. I am replacing them 200PP to 250PP per turn. But, so far, most of my units are barely at 32% experience.

I have Anti-Tank 1941 and Assault 1941 discovered since beginning of 1941.

Most of my received armies (the one forming by default in the Deployment window) are not even upgrading and are still at Assault 1939 or Anti-Tank 1939 (when I change the advancement).

I have bought 4 armies (Anti-Tank 1941) in April when Barbarossa started.
I have still Infantry Rifle Corps at Anti-Tank 1940 but at 30% experience. Few of them converted to half armies.
All my tank / mechanized corps are at Heavy Armor 1941 but are pushed like twigs.

And, I have seven forming armies that are not coming...

Is the Red Army strong enough for you?



I think you are doing OK; not great, but not disastrous yet either. How close are you to 42 Heavy Armour tech? If you have maximized research you should be close by August 42. How many armour and mechanized do you have? How many have been destroyed? What is the situation in Africa? Where did the UK invade in the summer of 41?



Flaviusx -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 8:00:56 PM)

Uh, the 5% experience nerf is kind of a big deal. The Sovs are very hard pressed to reach 40% experience by the end of 41, if they are lucky. On top of that they are essentially fighting at infantry speed until the end of 42, and their mech upgrade is also delayed until then, so those units stay fragile much longer than they used to.

The reason these were put in was not because there was a balance problem in 41. It was fine as it was before. Alvaro put this in here to enable a 42 Barbarossa option that absolutely nobody is playing. Like I said: the actual effect of these nerfs is to make life harder for the Sovs in 41-2 during a regular game just to make it possible for the Germans to ignore the Soviets until 42 (which in fact is still a bad idea even with this nerf.)

Personally I don't see any good reason to make it easier for the Axis to put off Barbarossa until 42, and indeed they are positively encouraged now to do it earlier.



Nirosi -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 8:43:53 PM)

quote:

Seriously, I must do something wrong.

For example, in this PBEM, Barbarossa started in April 1941.


Well if it started in April 41 you are not doing bad at all I would say. An April Barbarossa is very tough in the Soviet (and probably should be). Maybe it is too easy to have April Barbarossas (or not enough opportunity cost whene done) but that is another debate I guess.

But I would still wait a little before a final judgement since I think we have quite a small sample for now and probably with the same 5-6 players too.

If there is one thing I have noticed since looking at all the various posts and AARs is that the level of play makes the biggest difference. What is obviously easy to a player can sometime be close to impossible to another.


PS : Yes experience went down 5% but now corps can upgrade to half armies. That is also a very big deal PP wise. Part of me wonder if by the end of the first winter, the Soviets are not actually better off than before when taken into account both changes?



ncc1701e -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 8:47:36 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Uh, the 5% experience nerf is kind of a big deal. The Sovs are very hard pressed to reach 40% experience by the end of 41, if they are lucky. On top of that they are essentially fighting at infantry speed until the end of 42, and their mech upgrade is also delayed until then, so those units stay fragile much longer than they used to.

The reason these were put in was not because there was a balance problem in 41. It was fine as it was before. Alvaro put this in here to enable a 42 Barbarossa option that absolutely nobody is playing. Like I said: the actual effect of these nerfs is to make life harder for the Sovs in 41-2 during a regular game just to make it possible for the Germans to ignore the Soviets until 42 (which in fact is still a bad idea even with this nerf.)

Personally I don't see any good reason to make it easier for the Axis to put off Barbarossa until 42, and indeed they are positively encouraged now to do it earlier.


Why 42 Barbarossa option has started? This is because of the France 1940 all-in strategy. The Germans were so badly destroyed after the fall of France that it was impossible to invade USSR in 1941.

Now that UK is much weaker, France 1940 is much more feasible. And with the new shattering rule, it means more Panzer Corps coming back for the Germans in case of something bad is happening.
For me, 1940 is at the right balance. BoA is very good now too.

With a UK much weaker, and 60 landing craft for Mechanized units, plus a BoA to survive, this is also meaning that a naval invasion to help USSR in 1941 is more unlikely.

USSR in 1941 won't be helped much by lend lease too (UK occupied, USA neutral).

Definitely, I think Soviets are too weak. And, for me, the problem comes from this change:
quote:

Change Soviet default experience lowered from 35% to 30%


They were just about right. I think the default experience must go back to 35%.



ncc1701e -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 8:56:23 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

I think you are doing OK; not great, but not disastrous yet either. How close are you to 42 Heavy Armour tech? If you have maximized research you should be close by August 42. How many armour and mechanized do you have? How many have been destroyed? What is the situation in Africa? Where did the UK invade in the summer of 41?


I have 42 Heavy Armor tech already. Just the units won't upgrade since I have too much casualties to replace.

[image]local://upfiles/46661/E76A86C7427C49558951A78E94F6D5FB.jpg[/image]



ncc1701e -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 8:59:42 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

I think you are doing OK; not great, but not disastrous yet either. How close are you to 42 Heavy Armour tech? If you have maximized research you should be close by August 42. How many armour and mechanized do you have? How many have been destroyed? What is the situation in Africa? Where did the UK invade in the summer of 41?


I have purchased three Tank corps in 1939. Right now, I have:
. 5 armor corps on the map
. 1 armor corps in the Deployment queue (it shatters last turn)
. 12 mechanized corps

[image]local://upfiles/46661/B6BD5755DA784752ACD35F670BD53E11.jpg[/image]



ncc1701e -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 9:01:17 PM)

But, despite all this, Moscow fell. With a default experience of 35% this was very rare for me. Now it seems to be the norm.
And I was even capable of small deadly counter attacks.

[image]local://upfiles/46661/DE10FC992D1547FD8AA8BC7C515F396B.jpg[/image]



ncc1701e -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 9:14:54 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

There is a reason Sveint is doing wild things in this 1940 Barbarossa you are seeing. It might not work but prior to this patch it would not even be plausible to try this.


I hear you. I have yet to start my AAR but my Soviets are badly pushed. [:D]



stjeand -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 9:26:51 PM)

Based on all the games I have played with the new version...the Soviets seem to be underpowered but the Allies seem to be over powered.

So far the USSR just gets hammered over and over...until the Allies land somewhere early. They have to land early 42 or the war in Russia is close to over.
I have not seen Moscow in Russian hands in any game by the end of 41.

NOW not to say this is every game...but all I have played.

I have seen others that did not go this way...



ncc1701e -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/27/2021 9:42:07 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: stjeand

Based on all the games I have played with the new version...the Soviets seem to be underpowered but the Allies seem to be over powered.


Over powered in which way?



ncc1701e -> RE: Russian NM - A tale of 2 games (6/28/2021 6:23:30 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Uh, the 5% experience nerf is kind of a big deal. The Sovs are very hard pressed to reach 40% experience by the end of 41, if they are lucky. On top of that they are essentially fighting at infantry speed until the end of 42, and their mech upgrade is also delayed until then, so those units stay fragile much longer than they used to.


Personally I would proceed by small steps and just increase the based experience back to 35%. I like the idea that, in 1942, the Red Army is not yet ready for big offensives with their mobile corps and that the deep battle theory is not yet there.

For both players, I like that Germany is still dangerous in 1942 and that they have one last attempt possible to win on the Eastern front.

Like Harrybanana have said earlier, if all their resources are put at one single point of the front, the Germans should still be able to do some breakthroughs in 1942. Much harder than before, i.e 1941, but still possible and not everywhere of course.



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