|
rkr1958 -> RE: 6-Player Friendly PBEM Global War (7/9/2021 4:46:01 PM)
|
quote:
ORIGINAL: Courtenay
Don't know what the German player is muttering about. He is at least one turn ahead of normal German advance; Paris looks just about certain to fall in M/J, which is my definition of a successful Case Yellow.
Well, we don't actually hear anyone muttering except our own self. That's one beauty of PBEM play is that our responses to bad beats can be cooled before we respond as opposed to face-to-face where we don't have that chance. [8D]
I was embellishing a bit in the war log narratives based on my inference from some of the messages sent by the German player and how possibly I might have reacted. [:D]
quote:
ORIGINAL: Courtenay
One question for the CW player: Last turn he had 2 CAs (3 point) and 2 CL (1 point) that had to take two A results. He put them on the CAs, not the CLs. I am curious why he did it that.
Used the handy Excel sort feature to look through CW naval combat for the last two turns. I believe you're referring to combat below, which occurred on turn 3 (JF40), axis impulse 7 and in the Faeroes Gap. I think like you I like to put risks generally on the "least valuable" ships. So personally I'd put the 2A risks on the 2 CLs vs 2 CAs as the CW player did. While I can't speak to the specifics of why the CW player chose the CAs vs CLs, we can look at the odds for both selections (i.e., CAx2 vs CLx2).
(1) Chance of 0 aborts: CAx2=16% & CLx2=4%
(2) Chance of 2 aborts: CAx2=36% & CLx2=64%
(3) Chance of 1 abort: CAx2=48% & CLx2=32%
All I can figure is that he was playing the odds to minimize the chance that both were aborted (possibly)?
[image]local://upfiles/31901/36C9D691DD8B4DE0A0B781C7B922B5F7.jpg[/image]
|
|
|
|
