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csm308 -> RE: Modern conflicts scenarios recommendations needed (12/6/2021 6:32:00 AM)
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Indeed, you'd have to include Belarus and as much of Russia's Western Military District as possible to reflect units that deployed there for the Zapad exercises. Granted the Zapad exercises involve mostly invading Poland or deterring an invasion from Poland. Zapad 2021 had a bit of turning south to invade Ukraine as well. It appears all of the Zapad 2021 units returned to the far western part of the Western Military District, Bryansk/Yelnya/Orel, warehoused their equipment then returned to home base.
This does not include the Russian 20th Guards Combined Arms Army which is stationed along Ukraine's eastern border outside of the Donetsk, nor the 1st Guards Tank Army, which recently moved forward its units to staging bases along Ukraine's northeastern border.
You should go as far west/north as Poland, Kaliningrad, Lithuania, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Moldavia. Any European or US relief forces would have to rail through Warsaw. The other countries are also NATO members and may provide relief forces as well. There are currently, I believe, sufficient warehouses of US equipment to outfit a small US Army Corps (Two divisions with supporting units) in Belgium, Germany, and Poland (of all places). A far cry from the old Reforger days of seven full divisions worth of equipment in POMCUS plus two US Army Corps already stationed in Germany alone. All victims of the "peace dividend."
I mention Kaliningrad and Moldavia due to potential Russian Spetznaz raids from those areas. Both areas have at least one combat brigade in them as well, I think. The Zapad exercises usually included a brigade size attack from Kaliningrad eastward to meet up with attacks from Belarus to cut off Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
I wouldn't want to guess how many units the US and NATO/European Union could field. I only know what the US could field within a week then move to Ukraine. Two combat divisions mixed armor mech infantry and supporting units of an Army Corps. You could also include at least one airborne brigade of the 82nd within 24 hours, with the remaining two airborne brigades within 72 hours.
I'm also not including US air and naval forces. The Black Sea could be a slaughterhouse if it wanted to be. I don't even know if the US would risk a carrier battle group there, let alone any other NATO countries. They might send Los Angeles/Virgina attack subs though.
I'm guessing with Russian airbases so close, US air superiority or even parity might not be possible.
The reality is that nobody wants to send any units to assist Ukraine, but to increase the "fun" factor of the game you can release whatever you think logical, especially if it appears Putin is going for the whole Ukrainian enchilada.
You could of course shorten the map by starting any relief forces on Ukraine's western border or as far east as you feel the need. I also don't think the Russians have the logistics to conduct attacks against both Poland and Ukraine at the same time. They'd have to do it on their own as there is no longer a Warsaw Pact to back them up. No more East German, Polish, Czech, or Hungarian divisions to fight alongside them. Its the other way around now and you could add Rumania attacking Moldavia to pin down Russian forces there. I don't think the Poles would actually invade Belarus, but they might provide forces to Ukraine and/or attack Kaliningrad to either seize it or pin down Russian forces there.
Belarus is a basket case militarily and wouldn't add much to Russia's force structure. Belarus might attack with Russian forces, but certainly wouldn't attack on their own.
Lots of ifs to take into consideration. Most importantly, no nukes! Putin's a lot of things slimy but even he'd not start throwing nukes around, especially if he's not fighting on Russian soil.
VR
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