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MSAG -> RE: A tale from '42 - AlbertN vs MSAG (12/20/2021 11:54:10 AM)
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SOVIET COMMENTS CONTINUED
LATE SPRING & SUMMER 42
In many respects the period April-June 42 is the bleakest for Soviet player. After the winter respite one has to get used to constant Axis qualitative advantage again. While Axis seem to be able to recover supply- and morale- wisely rather quickly, the 45 NM level hurts Soviets a lot.
My situation assessment in May
Due to heavy losses to date the Soviet army was of a modest size (briefly reaching 5M before spring operations commenced), with many units at or below 60%. That coupled with low morale makes the defence of any position very difficult. That already has been shown to me during winter – with both Leningrad and Moscow defence lines breached numerous times.
Enemy intensions – big unknown (in April)
The question was – would AlbertN go for the southern push (Stalingrad and/or oil in Caucaus) or would he try to follow through with Leningrad and/or Moscow. After rational (though slightly fatalistic I have to admit) reflection I decided that if he really commits to any of them – there is nothing I can do to really prevent it (perhaps with notable exception of Moscow due to supply). I could make reaching objective difficult but probably could not stop it.
After accepting the above I decided that as long as I keep the army intact I can survive Axis success and aim at role reversal in 43. Perhaps loss of the oil fields in Baku could affect fuel production and Soviet war making capabilities going forward but Baku is truly very far for Axis to reach.
Force Management
Getting ready for the summer campaign I started to create the stronger units – Cav Corps and Guards Rifle Corps. Due to very low number of Guard infantry units I used Airborne Brigades conversion to make a core of a dozen GRCs.
I also reversed a little the Theater Box approach. During 41 I tried to pack the side Theatres with individually weaker units (mainly Rifle Brigades) in order to bring over the more experienced, 100% TOE divisions to the front. Now I started to send again the Rifle Divisions to Transcaucasus and Far East, bringing the Brigades back. They are to be used as a “mobile” reserve to be attached to the Urban/City forts and to individual Rifle Divisions in the hot sectors.
Also, in order to optimize resources, I disbanded some less needed units – heavy artillery regiments and some construction battalions and even regiments to free the manpower which seems to be the my real bottleneck now (some may rise question the wisdom of disbanding of the heavy artillery units now, but imho it makes sense because (1) HW goes to the pool – I can use it back, (2) heavy artillery production is limited for Soviets during the war so it is rather prudent NOT to use it when loosing battles is likely due to losses).
I am more conservative with creation of the Tank formations. I have not reached the limit of the Tank Corps yet. The time for it will come later in the year when Mech Corps become available and when I can fill the SU slots in them.
Sources of (limited) optimism
National Morale level change. As of July 1st 1942 NM goes up from 45 to 50 and at the same time the German one goes down from 75 to 70. It may not sound like much, but after couple of months (needed for readjustment, because NM can be seen as “equilibrium” level) Soviet units make a big leap towards closing the quality gap.
I was also very hopeful on Axis vehicle losses. 120K+ losses before the beginning of the summer. I thought I saw lower numbers on some AARs. In retrospect my hopes were misplaced I think. If the vehicle shortages affected Axis operations I cannot say.
Operations
At the end of June Albert decided to use his airforce more aggressively. I left the ground support “on” before the end of the turn … and my carefully husbanded air assets suffered 35% losses during 1 week (4300 planes!) effectively crippling my ability to use it more actively for foreseeable future.
Albert executed the summer offensives skilfully and to great extent successfully. In a matter of weeks my forces were defending directly urban hexes of Leningrad and Moscow. I believe that Albert have not reached Stalingrad because he decided not to do so.
If there was any reason for me for at least a little optimism – it was his force dispersion. Simultaneous attacks on Leningrad, Moscow, Voronezh and Novorossiysk. Progress was made on all fronts – that speaks a lot about the sorry state of my forces (and my skill level I am afraid). But his forces were divided and to a great degree out of immediate support distance.
I was pushing back where I could. Cutting off the spearhead of the offensive was possible, using the newly formed Tank Corps and cavalry. I was not strong enough to keep them surrounded for more than a week (necessary condition if one wants to make them surrender) but I managed to rout a few divisions here and there.
Not all counterattacks were worth it. The failed attempt in the very south caused the “counter-surrounding” of 10 divisions on the plains and fatally weakened my defence of Novorossiysk, Maikop and Krasnodar.
Leningrad debacle
I was not happy about having the Leningrad cut off but was not despairing – the supply stockpiles in the city are significant and I was sure I can disrupt the air blockade every few turns to send more. The whole setup depends on having the Ladoga ports open and the Volkhow-Tikhvin rail line operational.
Honestly I was expecting Albert to focus on air blockade. The terrain there benefits defender big time. Instead he kept pushing! I was feeding more forces there and felt confident that it should be possible to keep the ports open when disaster struck! Axis push around the Rybinsk Reservoir in August broke the front and the deep penetration cut the Volkhov rail line! Luckily, sensing trouble, my reserves, including elite 16th Army (3 Guards Rifle Corps and 2 Guards Cavalry Corps) were already moving into the area. I managed to cut off more than 10 mobile divisions at some stage. But Albert had reserves himself! After the chaotic battle only one (7th) Panzer Division was forced to surrender.
Now the rail line is open again but damage is done. Benefitting from supply crisis that befall on my forces in the north Albert managed to capture all the ports! The only supply possibility now is by air.
Overall Situation as of end of September
The Soviet Army managed to survive. Its OnMap strength slowly increases (4.8M now) Autumn rains are coming soon and some slowdown should help in further buildup. New equipment production and LL deliveries start to be felt.
Strategically, with notable exception of Leningrad blockade I think we are well positioned. I am really looking forward to 1943!
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