Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (Full Version)

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Becket -> Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/19/2004 6:38:27 PM)

I've been reading Fuchida & Co.'s book "Midway: The Battle That Doomed Japan." (a very interesting read so far, but since I'm only 100 pages in I can't offer more insight than that...)

Anyway, the authors criticize Nagumo for the decision to withdraw from the Hawaiian Islands after Pearl Harbor rather than seek engagement with the US carrier fleet. They go to note that Nagumo probably had to do this in order to rendezvous with his oilers, but the main thrust of their criticism is that Nagumo should have gone back to the area to seek out the "decisive battle." They go on to blame IJN strategic planners for sending the fleet willy nilly across the Pacific (instead of, again, seeking to crush the US fleet). In their eyes, the fleet was employed to "crush eggshells with sledgehammers."

So, the point of this post is to ask: Has anyone tested out the validity of this criticism by either keeping the fleet in the Hawaiian Islands area or sending them back from time to time in early 1942? If so, what results have you seen?



Nikademus -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/19/2004 6:41:47 PM)

Yes.

Generally i was turned off on the idea after one test. Sure i could well damage PH's infrastructure but in the end....my KB is still going to withdrawl.....the Allied player is still going to send the damaged BB's to West coast shipyards anyway (better capacity = quicker repair), and unless one has designs on Oahu.....it really wont affect the strategic situation all that much unless one plans to return in the near future.

I'd rather keep the pilots for smashing enemy warships and bases i'm actually going to invade in the future.



tiredoftryingnames -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/19/2004 6:43:09 PM)

Well with the varied first turn on you get that on the first day with one of the options as the CVs are close to port. What usually happens is the American CVs are sunk of course as they are outnumbered 6 to 2. On the other hand I've lingered in the area with the historical setup on and pounded PH over several days. I've never really battled it out with the American CVs this way as they smartly stay away.



Mr.Frag -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/19/2004 6:54:12 PM)

I guess you really have to reverse the question:

Is there anyone here who is going to bring their CV's anywhere near PH to protect PH knowing that Japan has no ability to do any realy damage that can not be repaired over time?

KB has a finite number of planes and bombs. Each raid weakens it, making it more likely that the USN's 2 weak CV's could actually accomplish something. I would not dare to come near PH with my CV's until such time that I had witnessed what looked like at least a 50% loss in Kates (I am not so worried about the Vals because I can repair that type of damage quickly enough without sinking).

The other problem becomes the Zeros, the starting Allied CV's have understrengthed wings of F4F-3's and F2A's. The F4F-3's have a chance but the F2A's are pretty much useless. Add to this that 90%+ of the Fighters at PH are trashed and the F4F-3's at Wake are probably all lost and you start to see that doing anything except running away to fight another day is the only viable option.



Pascal_slith -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/19/2004 7:13:59 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mr.Frag

I guess you really have to reverse the question:

Is there anyone here who is going to bring their CV's anywhere near PH to protect PH knowing that Japan has no ability to do any realy damage that can not be repaired over time?

KB has a finite number of planes and bombs. Each raid weakens it, making it more likely that the USN's 2 weak CV's could actually accomplish something. I would not dare to come near PH with my CV's until such time that I had witnessed what looked like at least a 50% loss in Kates (I am not so worried about the Vals because I can repair that type of damage quickly enough without sinking).

The other problem becomes the Zeros, the starting Allied CV's have understrengthed wings of F4F-3's and F2A's. The F4F-3's have a chance but the F2A's are pretty much useless. Add to this that 90%+ of the Fighters at PH are trashed and the F4F-3's at Wake are probably all lost and you start to see that doing anything except running away to fight another day is the only viable option.


Absolutely agree with you, Frag. The only question that comes to mind, given that the only way the Japanese can win in WitP is to lose the war after the historical date, is would smashing PH's infrastructure, supply, etc. etc. slow the future allied offensive enough so the Japanese surrender after the historical date?



tiredoftryingnames -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/19/2004 7:18:22 PM)

You can't damage PH but to the limits of the damage values, so knocking PH out for a while by itself will not help much for the overall war effort. Once you leave the engineers are going to start repairing and as long as you keep supplies coming from the west coast PH will be back as an operational base in a short time compared to the overall length of the long campaign.



Mr.Frag -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/19/2004 8:21:59 PM)

It really depends on the outcome of your first strike.

*If* you get BB lucky, staying to pick on the smaller aircraft after having dispatched a large chunk of the AA defences pays off. *If* you get BB unlucky, staying around to further loose aircraft really doesn't seem to help much.

You are pretty much immune though while you do this though. The question becomes just how many of those 432 pilots and planes are you willing to loose to sink ships at PH? Assuming Wake goes, the only aircraft that will be playing with you are those *at* PH. There is nothing there to give you any real fear. Should the Allied CV's show up, you *will* sink them. That is a sure thing unless you screw around with the aircraft on your CV and over commit A6M's for bombing and strafing.



Becket -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/19/2004 8:34:04 PM)

Thanks for the insights, all. If one accepts the simulation as a fair model of reality, the only benefit to having the fleet stay in the area (or come back) would be if the US decided to do the most advantageous thing for the IJN: send its carriers to intercept (and thus be sunk).

I cannot wait to start playing around with little what-if scenarios like this myself.



2Stepper -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 2:33:35 AM)

I understand what's being said about damaging PH's infrastructure and how that would affect things only very little, but what about the naval damage aspect?

If you assume for a moment that the attack goes along the lines with history a couple of things happen... Most notable is that the exit route out of the harbor is probably blocked by the beached Nevada... (though they beached her well short of the entrance preventing that problem) With that having occured it would make the ships in the harbor a sitting duck to further strikes. Thus it's entirely possible to blow a good share of the rest of the american battleships out of the water. Much like the Arizona was obliterated. In the very least, inflict much worse damage then what occured historically.

The near term (first 6-9 months) in the war would have been a good deal worse for the US. The US would have had to pull surface ships off the west and east coasts and "in theory" the Japs may have been seen as a greater threat to the US then the Germans were.

Historically I don't recall how many BB's we had on the coasts at the time (4 more I THINK), but they would have had to be recalled to the pacific to bolster up the fleet. As would any other carriers should the Lexington and/or the Saratoga get sunk.

Suffice to say I understand most of what I'm theorizing about is/would be impossible to model in the game, but for the sake of discussion I thought I'd toss it out there... See what people think...

Any further thoughts? I for one think the notion of holding the fleet near PH longer and pounding the daylights out of the ships at anchor has a lot of appeal as the IJN. Just MHO. CERTAINLY worth a bit of testing! [sm=00000622.gif]

[8D]



LTCMTS -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 3:04:12 AM)

Did I miss something? IIRC, only two fleet oilers accompanied the KB to PH. The Hiryu and Soryu had such little margin for error, Yamaguchi was ready to launch the strikes and abandon the carriers when they ran out of fuel. The KB DIDN'T have the range or fuel to stay in Hawaiian waters for much past the end of 7 Dec 41, or enough time for a third strike. The additional tankers needed to maintain the KB on station and for their return to home basewould have to be made available from some other operation, along with their escorts. If someone's spending a couple of days pounding PH from the air with the KB, then the logistics model is completely out of wack. The KB (or for that matter USN carrier TFs) were not the nearly self-sufficient, logistically sustainable CBGs the USN created from the late 50's.



DoomedMantis -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 3:42:24 AM)

you can add tankers to the support group.

Also CV's are limited to a number of strikes (sorties) before they have to rearm and refuel av gas.



pad152 -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 4:12:53 AM)

Something I would like to try, after the inital strike on Pearl, go east for a quick hit & run raid on Seattle(aircraft industry). Any delay to US heavy bomber production might be worth the effort.



Mr.Frag -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 4:23:17 AM)

quote:

Something I would like to try, after the inital strike on Pearl, go east for a quick hit & run raid on Seattle(aircraft industry). Any delay to US heavy bomber production might be worth the effort.


You can't, only a small part of the usa production is represented on map.



DoomedMantis -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 4:24:11 AM)

it would be a slow old trip back when you run out of fuel. Also is it really worth the fuel cost?



2Stepper -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 8:10:30 AM)

Not suggesting it would be a couple days without adding additional tankers to the group... What I was saying was the addition of a 3rd or 4th sortie to the attack, THEN make way for home. As I recall, another reason they bugged out for Japan after the 2nd strike was due to concerns about the American CV's catching them with less then sufficient fuel supplies as by strike 3 or 4 AV gas would be running a bit low...

It's still an interesting prospect to consider just what would have happened with greater damage to the US fleet at anchor...



Luskan -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 8:15:46 AM)

I'd much rather let the allied player come and loose his ships in my back yard where I know they'll have to sinK!



DoomedMantis -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 10:22:28 AM)

this from the man that generally trys to stay around for another day of attacks, but I noticed that he doesnt anymore with me (or at least in his last game). There are a number of tactics that the Allies can use to dicourage the second day of attacks, although they are not without risks, but still better than sitting there waiting to get blasted sitting in port.

I have a new doosey, but Im not telling untill someone tries it against me and it works[:D]



Luskan -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 10:25:58 AM)

A new doosey? Surprise on and free first turn rule on are the only way I'm ever going to play you as the japs from now on in (last game he had the entire pacific fleet waiting in the hex that KB arrives in to bomb pearl on the night of the 7th - what a bastard).

[:@]



Pascal_slith -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 11:43:20 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: 2Stepper

I understand what's being said about damaging PH's infrastructure and how that would affect things only very little, but what about the naval damage aspect?

If you assume for a moment that the attack goes along the lines with history a couple of things happen... Most notable is that the exit route out of the harbor is probably blocked by the beached Nevada... (though they beached her well short of the entrance preventing that problem) With that having occured it would make the ships in the harbor a sitting duck to further strikes. Thus it's entirely possible to blow a good share of the rest of the american battleships out of the water. Much like the Arizona was obliterated. In the very least, inflict much worse damage then what occured historically.

The near term (first 6-9 months) in the war would have been a good deal worse for the US. The US would have had to pull surface ships off the west and east coasts and "in theory" the Japs may have been seen as a greater threat to the US then the Germans were.

Historically I don't recall how many BB's we had on the coasts at the time (4 more I THINK), but they would have had to be recalled to the pacific to bolster up the fleet. As would any other carriers should the Lexington and/or the Saratoga get sunk.

Suffice to say I understand most of what I'm theorizing about is/would be impossible to model in the game, but for the sake of discussion I thought I'd toss it out there... See what people think...

Any further thoughts? I for one think the notion of holding the fleet near PH longer and pounding the daylights out of the ships at anchor has a lot of appeal as the IJN. Just MHO. CERTAINLY worth a bit of testing! [sm=00000622.gif]

[8D]


Some would say the loss of the battleships (not the sailors) was a godsend. They were slow and generally obsolete other than as shore bombardment vessels, though if you asked many senior officers in 1941 many would have still probably disagreed.

The loss of the battleships forced the US Navy to use its carriers as prime strike units. In any case, the example of KB's work in Pearl certainly bolstered the value of the CV's in the eyes of many of these senior officers.

Nimitz later intentionally withheld the battlewagons he had on the West Coast because they were slow and fuel guzzlers (this was especially the case during the first half of 1942).



DoomedMantis -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 11:47:00 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Luskan

A new doosey? Surprise on and free first turn rule on are the only way I'm ever going to play you as the japs from now on in (last game he had the entire pacific fleet waiting in the hex that KB arrives in to bomb pearl on the night of the 7th - what a bastard).

[:@]



Actually its a new one for the second turn



2Stepper -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 4:04:41 PM)

It's a good point Pascal, but I guess what I was driving from was more the public eye rather then the military one. Least in "theory" anyway... In the real outcome, despite a nasty blow on Dec 7th, the hierarchy in the war department still viewed Germany as the primary threat. I just find myself wondering if the IJN had dealt us a harder blow at Pearl if that view might have changed?

Granted it's all theory and guesswork, but it's a possibility I find interesting.

[8D]



j campbell -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 4:09:59 PM)

2stepper

i think germany always was and always would be the first choice enemy irrefardless of actions in the Pacific-the US could afford to put the entire Pacific theatre into "deep freeze" (ala do just enough to support china and australia but not go on the offensive until much later) if they wanted to and still come and win the war later so their actions were right in helping to take out Germany first.



2Stepper -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 4:16:59 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: j campbell

2stepper

i think germany always was and always would be the first choice enemy irrefardless of actions in the Pacific-the US could afford to put the entire Pacific theatre into "deep freeze" (ala do just enough to support china and australia but not go on the offensive until much later) if they wanted to and still come and win the war later so their actions were right in helping to take out Germany first.


I 100% TOTALLY agree J, I'm just thinking aloud here for sake of discussion. Germany was definitely the target of choice and for many good reasons that obviously came to light in late 1944 and 1945 when they fell. I just found it thought provoking that despite the presence of the Pacific (one MIGHTY big ocean), that just maybe something might have happened to turn that opinion the other direction... A far more devastated PH might not have been the ticket, but had the west coast been rendered defenseless by the total loss of the pacific fleet rather then it's crippling, that opinion might have changed...

That make sense? Again, this is all just for the sake of discussion. [8D]



Radzy -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 5:02:53 PM)

quote:

I just find myself wondering if the IJN had dealt us a harder blow at Pearl if that view might have changed?

Granted it's all theory and guesswork, but it's a possibility I find interesting.


I also was wondering about this, and here are my conclusions:

The US government and military administration would acknowledge Germany as lesser threat only if they did not attack Allies in Europe (or there was no such country as Germany) or the war in Europe went bad for Axis (fe. Allied units were more offensive in 1939).

The situation in Europe was more crucial for US than matters on Pacific. III Reich was potentially greater threat than Japan, because of their industrial and military potential and their achievements in conquering Europe.. However German government with or without Japanese forces support didn’t ever consider invasion of USA (They weren’t so stupid to think, they would be able to control such wastes of land with so many people. They rather were thinking about disabling them from war in less or more conventional way by A – bombs, which they were developing, or by defeating their Allies). It was obvious for US government that even if not directly involved in war, keeping Germans in bloody fighting (and not letting them to rest even for the while) was crucial for final victory, so let's say US wanted to keep the situation in Europe in some kind of status quo. And of course they were somehow waiting for some excuse to enter the war. I wonder then what would happen if Germans did not declare war on US after Japanese attack on PH.

Another however comes to my mind. If really US considered Japan as main threat, I presume, the allocation of units, alert levels and preparation for oncoming war would probably make the initial Japanese strikes much harder to achieve. It would obviously change the proportions of forces in favor of Allies, as US had more troops to spare around Pacific.
Despite military aid to fighting Allied countries (Lend-Lease etc.), US weren’t highly involved in conflict with Axis in Europe until Operation “Torch” and kept many of their divisions at mainland preparing for further operations. Those could be easily used to strengthen their positions in their bases in wastes of Pacific. Of course it wouldn't sink IJN's carriers at beginning but the attacks would me more costful for Japanese and they simply didn't have time and resources to waste...

Ok. Enough of this less or more wishful thinking [:D]

Regards,
Radzy



2Stepper -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 5:30:16 PM)

Nah, it's not wishful thinking or whimsical. I find it interesting. Though one major hurdle to such a shift in thinking for the time would be the fact that almost all americans at the time had a much stronger tie to Europe then Asia. That, by in large I'm sure had a lot to do with the focus on Germany as primary enemy. Added the fact that they went to Japan looking for an ally as I recall. Not the other way around. So in a great many ways, Germany made themselves the bigger target...

But getting back to my original point about Pearl, that's what I found so thought provoking about this... What would it have taken? The total crushing of the pacific fleet to draw more attention to Asia? Or would it have even mattered? Granted I don't think I would want to have seen the result, but for the sake of pondering history it's at least interesting. [8D]



Admiral DadMan -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/20/2004 5:45:00 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Luskan

A new doosey? Surprise on and free first turn rule on are the only way I'm ever going to play you as the japs from now on in (last game he had the entire pacific fleet waiting in the hex that KB arrives in to bomb pearl on the night of the 7th - what a bastard).

[:@]

That is too funny.[sm=dizzy.gif]



Radzy -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/21/2004 11:49:38 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: 2Stepper

But getting back to my original point about Pearl, that's what I found so thought provoking about this... What would it have taken? The total crushing of the pacific fleet to draw more attention to Asia? Or would it have even mattered? Granted I don't think I would want to have seen the result, but for the sake of pondering history it's at least interesting.


The answer would be much easier if we knew for sure whether US government had the information about the planned Pearl attack or not. If we consider some politicians and army personnel claimed such knowledge and also claimed Japan as main threat, I think IJN would achieve the same or even lesser victory than historically and it still would be only a Pyrrhic victory. What else, in condition where Japan is main threat, US would prepare to war better I presume, by switching their production to withstand the demands of Pacific Theatre (building ships, long range bomber, better fighters, etc.). Concluding, all that things (in addition to what I said in previous post) seem like putting the US eye on Japan would probably shorten the war in Pacific. However the question is, what would happen then in Europe and North Africa?

Regards,
Radzy



2Stepper -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/21/2004 5:14:18 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Radzy

The answer would be much easier if we knew for sure whether US government had the information about the planned Pearl attack or not. If we consider some politicians and army personnel claimed such knowledge and also claimed Japan as main threat, I think IJN would achieve the same or even lesser victory than historically and it still would be only a Pyrrhic victory. What else, in condition where Japan is main threat, US would prepare to war better I presume, by switching their production to withstand the demands of Pacific Theatre (building ships, long range bomber, better fighters, etc.). Concluding, all that things (in addition to what I said in previous post) seem like putting the US eye on Japan would probably shorten the war in Pacific. However the question is, what would happen then in Europe and North Africa?

Regards,
Radzy


Well see, you raise a question too right there... We're at least fairly certain (despite a few "conspiracy" notions that have cropped up in recent years) that the US new little or nothing about the impending attack on Pearl. They were out to achieve surprise and largely succeeded. Suppose for the sake of argument that the the fleet lost roughly half it's number of big shipping including most, if not all the battleships... The death toll having been say 3 times the historical number. The end result, you have a greater level of panic and public outcry at the loss of the pacific fleet. What then?

I think the big point in all this is the attatchment of the US to Europe and the "mother countries" so to speak. So a total shift to the pacific would have been difficult unless the US felt the west coast was vulnerable to invasion. The interesting thing is that if something like that had occurred, we'd have been put in a similar position that Germany was. "Two Front" war. Just the primary differences being that it was on the oceans not on land.

Who knows... my thinking is probably flawed somewhat, but it is interesting. We needed to take care of Europe because Britain was hanging on by a fingernail as was Russia by the end of 1941, but any number of things could have happened to change that. Japan would have had her day on the blocks eventually anyway... Afterall, as Yamamoto said...

"I fear all we have done is to wake a sleeping dragon and fill him with a terrible resolve..." [8D]

That they did.... [:)]



Mike Scholl -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/21/2004 6:35:48 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Radzy
However the question is, what would happen then in Europe and North Africa?

Regards,
Radzy


Pretty much what happened anyway. The Russians had already begun counter-attacking
Army Group Center BEFORE Pearl Harbor..., and Stalingrad occurred BEFORE the major
flow of "lend-lease" goods got to Russia. The British were going to get some help re-
gardless. They might not have gotten "Torch", but El Alemein was still in the cards,
and the eventual loss of North Africa. The only real difference would have been a
possible lengthening of the European War, and the Russians ending up on the Rhine.
It was the US Government and Military that saw Germany as the most dangerous of
the Axis Powers, not the populace as a whole. And more than half of US forces avail-
able went to the Pacific up through the end of 1943 in any case.



Xargun -> RE: Keeping Nagumo's fleet in the PH area (5/21/2004 11:29:51 PM)

One thing you guys may be forgetting. Although Japan had a large navy and very modern there was no way they could invade the west coast and have a prayer of supporting their attacks. They could have taken a few major cities, but then be stopped - not by our military (was to weak at that point), but by the shear distance between the West coast and Japan - therefore all reinforcements and supplies would have weeks of travel to get where they were needed - and thats not counting the hayday our surviving fleet (mostly CVs) would have had against the Japanese shipping.

If Japan wanted to invade the US, there was no way they would have the resources to hit the SRA - therefore their economy would have foundered in 1942 some time and their units on the west coast would have been eventually starved and wiped out.. The US was just to far for any concieved invasion at that time...

Xargun



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