Future of games like WITP

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madmickey -> Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 6:08:15 PM)
Can companies afford to put out games like WITP (I am talking about the company that develops it)? The team must have spent a couple years developing it and I would be surprised if they sold more than 10,000 units. Most people are playing either shooter games or much simpler strategy games. It would be sad to see an end of development of these types of games. What are other peoples feeling.

Oliver Heindorf -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 6:16:23 PM)
it has already started....360 pacific gone, SSI sold out, gone Microprose financial collapse due to mismanagement....look around, all the games you get now are more simplyfied, more balla balla etc. just glad that companies like matrix are around here. Dont forget that the games we play are usually for the older customer and the younger arent that much attracted

Mark VII -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 6:18:40 PM)
HEY!!! Your not calling my old are you? I'm only 48, thought that was pretty young. I still feel young!

Halsey -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 6:23:47 PM)
BRAVO! CHEER! WAVE! [:D]

ZOOMIE1980 -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 6:28:10 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: madmickey Can companies afford to put out games like WITP (I am talking about the company that develops it)? The team must have spent a couple years developing it and I would be surprised if they sold more than 10,000 units. Most people are playing either shooter games or much simpler strategy games. It would be sad to see an end of development of these types of games. What are other peoples feeling. Good question. I'm not so sure how "poor" these guys really are. They aren't rich, but they aren't poor, either. 10,000 units sold at $70.00 a pop is $700,000 for a three man company (2 X 3) minus whatever cut Matrix and DR get out of the distribution side isn't chump change. Even half that is still a decent take for a two-three year effort by three guys (and it's not like this one title is GG's and Co.s only revenue source, either). But as has been stated elsewhere, the grognard population is aging and is not being replaced from the next generation of gamers. So event he tiny market there is today will just about go away. There will always be at least a few, though, but maybe not enough to sustain a business. I think, long term, what really good games will come will come out of non-profit groups at very small volumes, probably from collaborative, open-source type efforts done by people as a labor of love rather as a career or as a source of income.

Speedysteve -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 6:35:41 PM)
Well i'm 24. Is that classed as old? Be careful now [;)]

madmickey -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 6:45:04 PM)
10,000 may be top end of sales. I would like to know how many patches have been downloaded. Of course I usually redownload patches when I clean up my windows (I have a really fast internet connection and even though I have a CD burner I trust a redownload more.)

Bradley7735 -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 7:12:07 PM)
Well, I happen to be an accountant for a software company. Let's just run the numbers. We'll assume 10k units sold, but none of us really know how many units have sold so far. I also don't know how the relationship between 2x3 and Matrix works. I think that 2x3 had 1.5 developers on WITP. I'm guessing that Matrix also had 1.5 people on the project (I was guessing only 1, but Joel said there were plural bodies in Germany who could do the 1.3 patch, so I'm guessing more than 1, but no more than 2) So, that'd be 3 full time developers on this project. I think it's been 4 years in development (correct me if I'm wrong.) A developer will cost a company more than $100,000 per year. Let's say they each make $65k. multiply that by 1.5 to get the full burdened cost for each dev. So, 3 developers for 4 years is about $1.2 million in costs. 10k units times $75. (some of us paid $10 more for the CD) is $750,000. Digital river takes 20% (or at least that's what they take from my company). Net revenue is $600k. Net loss on project is $600k. Now take into account that they've got one to two people continuing to make patches...... I'm betting that I'm off in the number of developers or the number of years in development, because no company can take a 50% loss on a project and stay in business. (maybe they pay their dev's less than $65k per year in places other than Seattle) But, even if my numbers are over stated, Matrix can not possibly be doing better than break even. Mike Scholl once suggested that some of us pony up more $ to keep this game going. I would pay for future patches, if necessary. I love this game. I love the fact that there are several people who test the game and moderate this site for free. I love the fact that Joel will give us the facts, despite other's flaming his company for doing so. I love the fact that people can make mods/scenarios for this game (can't wait for WPO). And, on top of all the great stuff that we get in the game, this forum has educated me more than all my other schooling. It's a shame that all the young ones want to play doom and such. I wish there was a huge market for these types of games..... What was the topic of this thread?? I'm rambling now. I should probably get back to work.

tanker4145 -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 7:23:58 PM)
I think there's more young wargamers than you think. Heck I'm only 26, so definately a young'en to most of you. Of course, I don't know anyone else my age who has this game. But there are some of us.

ZOOMIE1980 -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 7:29:24 PM)
You've got the idea right. For personnel costs we always take salary X 1.5. Not sure these guys are even on salary or not, or if they even have any benifits, which means that typical 1.5 may not be right. Not sure the sales figure, they guard that like some sort of national compartmented top secret piece of info for some reason. 2X3 is three guys and I think they borrowed one programmer from Matrix, part time, and Matrix graphics guy did the artwork. I think this thing was about 2 1/2 to 3 years in development, but not all three worked on it 100% of the time, either. They obviously make enough to continue their efforts long term and Matrix makes enough to send several people to Germany for a week and still pay the bills. I'll agree they are not getting rich but they clearly aren't poor either. So who knows other than them? The thread seems to be concerned with the future of the genre. How much longer is there going to be a fanbase large enough to sustain even a small business? Most of us are old-fart, over 40's or older. I don't see a lot of teenagers or twenty-somethings taking up interest in the genre. The genre is going the way of baseball in this country. Once there is no longer a critical mass sufficient to sustain a for-profit business it will only survive out on a place like SourceForge..... If I ever get to the point where I can starting working on my own stuff, I will do so without any expecation of any income of any kind coming from it....I won't be quitting my day job to do it, in otherwords...

Skyros -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 7:43:47 PM)
Well I tried to ensure the future, but my nephews got caught up in Magic, shootm ups, paint ball and sports. Then I had three daughters, which at least they play computer games, SIMS2 etc. I am teaching my 7 year old LOtR Risk so maybe there is hope. I was taken by surprise that the 30th anniversery of D&D just past, that made me feel old since I started playing that when it first game out. Well, we may not need any other games since WITP may take up all of my time just playing the standard games. I don't know if I will even find the time to play Tankers mods. Its like I keep telling my wife, all those books and games are for when I retire and I have time to read and play them all.[:D]

dereck -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 7:50:34 PM)
I got my start with the old Avalon Hill board war games back in the late 1970s most of which I still own. My favorite computer war games: 360 V For Victory: D-Day Utah Beach <== unfortunately can't be played with Windows 95, 98 or XP [:(] Avalon Hill Operation Crusader Stalingrad Swfte International Gettysburg Interactive Magic American Civil War: From Sumter to Appomattox SSI War in Russia Pacific War Conflict: Korea Second Front: Germany Turns East Western Front: The Liberation of Europe 1944-1945 Unfortunately games like these are a dying breed. Instead of the flashy shoot 'em up type games these need actual THOUGHT to play. There's exceptions to what I'm about to say which is that the majority of people below 30 don't seem to have the patience or aptitude for "mental" games. They want instant gratification of blowing someone or something up. Lack of imagination? My generation grew up without computers or computer games ... the box a refrigerator or dryer came in was a good play thing for a good part of two weeks. My generation saw the box as a potential fort, club house, hideaway, etc ... generations now only have the imagination to see a box [:(] It's a shame too because games that make someone think and plan are far more enjoyable -- in my opinion at least -- than ones that depend only on reflex. End of my soapbox statement [:-]

invernomuto -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 7:53:59 PM)
28 y.o. here. The Young Wargamers Syndacate is growing... Bye

Skyros -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 7:56:56 PM)
I agree dereck, I learned so much from playing the old board games. Geography, history and basic math. I don't know how many times I have sat in meetings where I could add up a column of numbers faster than the guys with hand helds. "Thats a 4-1 ratio your talking about" and I did not even take in the affect of terrain. That is probably the one drawback to the computer game is the lack of manual number crunching, but then if I had to keep track of everything I would never finish a turn.

John B -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 8:03:39 PM)
As one of the oldies who started off with boardgaming back in the 1970's, the trend there too has been towards simpler quicker games. Presumably one factor is that the average gamer of either board or PC games has generally only so much time to put into a game. The ones with the greatest time are probably those footloose and fancy-free youngsters, and us irresponsible oldies who once more have a bit of free time after kids and work have gone away. So in theory I'd think that those two ends of the gaming spectrum will always have an interest in WitP type games, but the majority in between probably not. The best solution I think, is what Matrix already seem to be showing signs of doing. That is to produce a mix of the "popular" games to generate income, whilst carrying on producing a smaller number of "WitPs". Lets hope there will always be designers and producers with an eye to more than just making money

ZOOMIE1980 -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 8:03:57 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Skyros Well I tried to ensure the future, but my nephews got caught up in Magic, shootm ups, paint ball and sports. Then I had three daughters, which at least they play computer games, SIMS2 etc. I am teaching my 7 year old LOtR Risk so maybe there is hope. I was taken by surprise that the 30th anniversery of D&D just past, that made me feel old since I started playing that when it first game out. Well, we may not need any other games since WITP may take up all of my time just playing the standard games. I don't know if I will even find the time to play Tankers mods. Its like I keep telling my wife, all those books and games are for when I retire and I have time to read and play them all.[:D] Now there's a curious thought for you! A game so compelling, so captivating, and requiring such a time commitment, bith daily and long term, that it leaves room for nothing else, hitting a very small market, effectively kills the market for anything else coming after for years because we are all locked up playing this title..... Is that far fetched? Compare the message traffic on this forum with all the other Matrix game forums. If that's any indication of the proportion in which people are playing the respective games......ouch....

Oleg Mastruko -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 8:18:26 PM)
Haha, no Zoomie, I just think we are more vocal on this board than on others, and also we formed sorta tightly knit group where we all know each other by name, avatar and posting style. I don't think the volume of posts is necesarilly indicative of anything, after all, 90% of posts here lately are just babling/chatting etc. since we all seem to be waiting for the patch. For far less time consuming games, yet fun and challenging, check out GG WAW and FPG when they're out. Both very promising titles, though I won't sacrifice my "WITP time" for them (have to find more time to play them all) Oleg

dereck -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 8:19:21 PM)
quote: I agree dereck, I learned so much from playing the old board games. Geography, history and basic math. I don't know how many times I have sat in meetings where I could add up a column of numbers faster than the guys with hand helds. "Thats a 4-1 ratio your talking about" and I did not even take in the affect of terrain. That is probably the one drawback to the computer game is the lack of manual number crunching, but then if I had to keep track of everything I would never finish a turn. I have one board game I never played that I bought a few months before I went into the Navy: War in the Pacific: The Campaign Against Imperial Japan, 1941-45 by SPI (Simulations Publications, Inc). It can be compared to the board game version of War in the Pacific. The maps when laid out were over 10 feet by 10 feet. It would have been a fun game to play but I do have to admit playing the computer WiTP would probably be much simpler as complicated as both games are. I think those of us who got our start with the old board war games got hooked at an early age and games like "War in the Pacific" draw us like magnets. I just wish Gary Grigsby would make about the American Civil War on the same scale as "War in the Pacific" -- I'd certainly jump at that game!

byron13 -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 8:37:34 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: ZOOMIE1980 Now there's a curious thought for you! A game so compelling, so captivating, and requiring such a time commitment, bith daily and long term, that it leaves room for nothing else, hitting a very small market, effectively kills the market for anything else coming after for years because we are all locked up playing this title..... Is that far fetched? Compare the message traffic on this forum with all the other Matrix game forums. If that's any indication of the proportion in which people are playing the respective games......ouch.... Never happen. Me and all of my friends have been guilty of buying a boardgame and never playing it. It was almost worth the price just to look at the mapboards and feel and smell the counters. Fantasizing about playing was almost worth the money. I still have a friend that buys esoteric board games and just puts them in a cabinet (he makes too much money, apparently). I would guess the same thing would happen with a computer game: I would buy it to make sure I could get a copy, assuming that I would play eventually. I think the real problem is the demographics. I'm not sure what the difference is, but the kids - generally - seem to be less interested in this type of game. Whether it is short attention span, the fact that older players in their youth regularly interacted with WWII vets, there weren't as many forms of entertainment when the older crowd was growing up and got hooked as a result, I don't know. My guess is that the FPS games are more exciting and that's what the kids go for (and why not?); there was no such thing as a fast-action FPS board game when the older ones grew up (Sniper and Squad Leader are the closest things I can think of), so we're more comfortable with a slower paced, contemplative game.

Honda -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 8:38:11 PM)
Will there be a merket? YES! Look at it this way. OLDER people play wargames and play them for a long,long time. Those kids shooting up, running aroung the house not caring about the total lack of strategy while at it will, I repeat, will grow up sooner or later (well most of them will). Now take the number of kids playing any type of computer game in the 80s and calculate the percentage of those playing wargames. Those kids playing wargames are people that are still playing. People in their 40s playing shooters are a rarity compared to 40 year YOUNG wargamers. Then take the number of kids playing comuter games today and calculate the percentage playing wargames. The percentage number is much lower but the actual number much higher. And that number is what counts because wargamers stay more loyal to their games. Now imagine 100 kids buying games for 5 years and 5 kids playing wargames for 30 years (essentialy growing up/maturing with them) . This math says there will be a market as 2nd and 3rd generation of wargamers start boosting the ranks of our honorable 1st generaton wargamers (commonly known as Antedeluvians)

Xargun -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 8:39:29 PM)
Personally I think its games like these that will revitalize the wargamming industry. I am middle aged (35) but have been a wargammer at heart for a long time (15 yrs+). With the scope and support of this game Matrix / 2 BY 3 can do nothing but improve the wargamming community... It has never been large, but I think we are keeping our size up and adding some new guys to the crowd... One big thing people overlook at times is that only the older people have the free time to dedicate to wargames... No indepth wargame is a quick game - not if you play it right... Older people tend to have more free time - maybe retired, kids are gone, etc... Thats why the youngins like RTS games - they last maybe an hour and are fun - I play them too... But to me no RTS can give me the strategy and indepth control like a wargame - especially WitP... Just a few changes (for my personal choice) and it would be the best game ever... [:'(] The advantage with computers is that I can play a wargame ANYTIME I want without having to fill the dining room with a map and pieces AND find someone else to play against.. With the AI and PBEM I can find all the opponents I will ever want / need online... Xargun

dereck -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 8:44:23 PM)
quote: I think the real problem is the demographics. I'm not sure what the difference is, but the kids - generally - seem to be less interested in this type of game. Whether it is short attention span, the fact that older players in their youth regularly interacted with WWII vets, there weren't as many forms of entertainment when the older crowd was growing up and got hooked as a result, I don't know. My guess is that the FPS games are more exciting and that's what the kids go for (and why not?); there was no such thing as a fast-action FPS board game when the older ones grew up (Sniper and Squad Leader are the closest things I can think of), so we're more comfortable with a slower paced, contemplative game. In my case, my father who served with the 13th Air Force in the Philippines near the end of World War II.

Feinder -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 8:51:16 PM)
The other things you have to consider is that, Matrix is the publisher. They generate funds from all of the titles under their belt. Three things to consider : 1. WitP is a expansion of UV. Yes, it is a -VERY- different game than UV, and far superiour. But think about all of the routines and database elements that were lifted directly from UV directly into WitP. Even if those algoithms require dramatic "tweaking", you still at least have the fundamental design and large object library to work from. This saves you a lot of money in developement costs, because you're not working from scratch. 2. Matrix generates funds from ALL it's games. Some will be more profitable than others, and can prop up a more narrow margin on game that goes over it's budgeted dev cost. Maybe "Starshatter" didn't end up costing them much. But then it has better than expected sales, and that surplus goes to (indirectly) subsidizing the budget overrun of another game. Or maybe Korson Pocket comes out and is a hit. It's making money, but not to the tune that "Startshatter" did. But now there's a new module, "Across the Dneiper". It's more scenarios, and some code enhancements, but even if you sell it at half the cost of the orginal, you didn't spend THAT long in developement for the thing, so it's going to make you a fair amount of money also. It's like the Cokes at McDonalds being $1.20, and a BigMac is on sale for $.99. They're making about $1.15 of that Coke, they can afford to eat the margin on the BigMac. 3. There's also the "get 'em in the door" effect. Matrix knows nobody would pay $100 for the game (for example). But they decide that $70 is the most they can charge, and not frighten folks away. It might be that at $70, they're only going to make $10 a copy (who knows). But they also know that something in the rest of their stock will appeal to us (notice the banners for everything else they sell is on every page?). So we buy WitP. Think, "Wow that's great! I had a great experiece with WitP, what else are these guys publishing..." And hense the opportunity to purchase something else (that might not have had a high developement cost). And that's your 1st year of MBA school in a nut-shell... [;)] -F-

Spooky -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 8:51:34 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Oliver Heindorf it has already started....360 pacific gone, SSI sold out, gone Microprose financial collapse due to mismanagement....look around, all the games you get now are more simplyfied, more balla balla etc. just glad that companies like matrix are around here. Dont forget that the games we play are usually for the older customer and the younger arent that much attracted I am not sure that the situation is so hopeless. Internet is now a great way to sell to a niche market like wargamers or strategy game players - no more retailers (and their margins !) and the publishers can now easily sell in the entire world [:)] Board-like wargames seem to mainly attract rather old players but the new breed of computer wargames (Combat Mission 1 & 2, HOI, HOI 2 ... even Strategic Command) are quite popular (for wargames !) without being too much simplified - and they are not attracting only old grognards like us [;)] Moreover, if the wargames market was dead, why did Paradox buy the Squad Leader licence last august ? To sum up, to design & publish wargames is not the best or fastest way to become rich & famous but with the right business model, it can be a sustainable business.

ltfightr -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 8:58:22 PM)
My favorite computer war games: 360 V For Victory: D-Day Utah Beach <== unfortunately can't be played with Windows 95, 98 or XP I must hold my breath right the V4V series runs on my p4 with xp.... I owed the series on floppy and lost most of them but downloaded it from the underdogs site and it runs ok the only problem I have is with my mouse it moves very slowly.

kaleun -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 9:08:16 PM)
Well; it looks like the majority of the grognards are over 40, but there is a small group of promising young 'uns coming along too. There is hope then. The first player shooters will get older, with worse reflexes, and smarter, then they'll move on to turn based RPG, and from there to strategy games, is only a matter of scope. IMHO[8\|] There is room for guarded optimism.[;)] Now back to the important things in life: I want my patch! I want my patch! (Throws tantrum.)

Joel Billings -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 9:12:51 PM)
Bradley7735 had a great analysis of the situation. It only got about 1/2 the items right, but is pretty darn good all things considered. Of course the story on WitP has not yet been fully written, so we'll have to wait awhile to see where it ends up. As for the future of wargames, hopefully they'll always be a dedicated few that are willing to scratch out a living in the industry to make these products. Perhaps some of the more serious games will be difficult to justify producing in the future. However, you never know what advancements will come in computers and computer science that may make it easier for us to keep making games. Something in mainstream gaming might change that trickles down to the wargaming market. For now, speaking from pure self-interest, I would ask any serious wargamer, that wants to support the industry now and into the future to talk up our upcomming game Gary Grigsby's World at War to anyone you know that plays computer games and might be interested in a strategy game that is relatively simple to learn but complex to master. We need to get some new blood into wargaming and this is one way to do it. Axis & Allies has sold millions of copies over the years and I think that every A&A player would be interested in GGWaW, and most would thouroughly enjoy playing it. I would bet a lot of you have played A&A with groups of people before and that many of these people have a computer but don't keep up with today's wargames. Why not get the group to buy GGWaW and try a 4 or 5 player PBEM game. I can almost guarantee that you'll enjoy the game more than A&A. Of course we're very happy with the AI (much better than the AI in computer A&A) so it's a good game for someone to learn while playing the AI. Also, we've included several advanced rules that make the game more interesting once you've learned the basics. This means that playing the basic game is much easier to get into for those that aren't used to complicated wargames. GGWaW will be distributed in stores with a box and manual. Hopefully you'll be able to find it in a store near you. Yes, you can buy it online, but feel free to buy it in a store when it first comes out. This will help because it will get the attention of the store if it sells well out of the gate, and it will also give you a chance to quickly check the game out and confirm whether I'm right about this game. Then if you like it as much as I think you will, you can quickly email your friends and try to convince them to get the game so you can play PBEM. This game is our (2by3 and Matrix) best hope to drive sales to non-hardcore customers that might be interested in other Matrix and 2by3 titles but haven't bothered to find out about Matrix. For those overseas, we expect GGWaW to have good international distribution (including localized versions in some languages) so don't feel left out. Hopefully especially once localized, you can convince your friends to give the game a try. You old guard (the true grognards) are our best marketing. I'm not kidding about this. If you decide you like this game and make an effort to convince some of your casual wargame/computer strategy game friends to try this game out, you can make a big difference. You will not only be helping with GGWaW, but helping to generate future customers and thus a future supply of good wargames. Yes, I am making a blatent appeal for your help. Yes, I will make more money if you do this. I admit it, I want to make enough so I can continue to justify working with Gary, Keith and others to make computer wargames. I want Matrix to make enough so they can continue to publish games by us and other dedicated wargame designers. We're doing everything we can to make GGWaW a very special game. The last game I felt this way about was Panzer General. I don't expect this game to sell as well as PG (arguably the best selling computer wargame in history) as it doesn't have the "role-playing" element of PG. But it is a darn fun game to play and a real mental challenge. And I'm learning something new everyday about WWII as I work on and play this game, and I thought I knew a lot already. What more could you ask for from a game. So there you have it. A crass appeal for money or a dedicated desire to grow the computer wargame market? As it should be, it's up to you to decide.

Skyros -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 9:15:47 PM)
quote: Me and all of my friends have been guilty of buying a boardgame and never playing it. It was almost worth the price just to look at the mapboards and feel and smell the counters. Fantasizing about playing was almost worth the money. My friends used to kid me that I only bought games to look at the maps and counter. "Look at al the pretty colors"[8D]

Jmsimer -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 9:21:10 PM)
Well, I think we're really speculating with all these figures. I have to assume Matrix and 2x3 thought they would make money if they sold the game for $70, and who knows whether they estimated the volume correctly. I just hope they do manage to stay around, because there are so few companies making truly good wargames. For the business side of it, if they need some free advice from an MBA student who will work for free (to a point), well, I'm right here! [:D]

madmickey -> RE: Future of games like WITP (10/21/2004 9:40:05 PM)
Joel, I was planning to buy 2by3 next game even though I do not know how much time I will spend on it because of WITP.

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