Tom Hunter -> What's going on? (9/12/2005 6:16:44 PM)
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From: US Intelligence Analysis Dept Washington, D.C. Limited Distribution Eyes Only Adm. Hunter Adm. Mandrake Adm. Bravotwosix, or replacement As you know recently the Japanese have been suffering very heavy losses amoung their merchant shipping. American air attacks off New Guinea, Allied air attacks flying from Soerbaja and Royal Navy action off Malaya have pushed the loss rate over 7 ships per day for several days. 7 ships is over 1% of the estimated total size of the Japanese merchant fleet. As the chart below shows, these losses are concentrated in the troop transport catagory: [image]local://upfiles/14870/45E8A1CC5E4D45EEAD38DBFEDF2B70FF.jpg[/image] In addition to ships known to have been sunk intelligence believes that at least 50 and maybe as many as 100 may be heavily damaged. This leaves the Japanese with between 20-40% of the troop transport capability that they had at the beginning of the war, 60 days ago. Intelligence believes that the Japanese are becoming aware of the detrimental effects of these losses on thier war effort and that an adjustment in Japanese strategy may occur as their operations become curtailed by a lack of transport capability. At the start of the war the Japanese launched invasions of the following areas in the following strength: Burma: 50,000 over land Malaya 70,000 by sea Luzon 80,000 by sea Mindano, Borneo, Celebes 40,000 by sea Rabaul, Solomons, 30,000 by sea At this time intelligence estimates that the largest invasion the Japanese are capable of launching is 40-50,000 men and that they can launch one invasion only.
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