Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: Feinder

There has been much discussion about "What if USA knew, and sailed out to meet the IJN fleet..." Blah, blah, blah.

My question is, What if say, KB had been spotted by Lex (or some other CV in the area), a few days before 12-07? What were their orders? They were under radio silence, no?

"What would KB have done if it had discovered a USN CV on say 12-05?" Were their orders to attack BEFORE 12-07?

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ORIGINAL: Feinder

It sounds like KBs orders are "Don't fire unless fired upon, until you bomb PH on 12-07."

Fine.

Let's say search planes from a USN CV stumbles across KB.

We'll even say that KB spots the USN CV. According to orders, KB increases CAP, and readies a strike (to fire if fired upon).

USN CV skipper radios Pearl, "Um. There's a really, REALLY, big TF with lots of carriers heading your way..."

What does the USN CV do then? The USN DDs at PH were on the footing of "shoot first, ask questions later" regarding subs in PH (but then again, not in international waters either).

-F-

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What does the USN CV do then? The USN DDs at PH were on the footing of "shoot first, ask questions later" regarding subs in PH (but then again, not in international waters either).

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It sounds like KBs orders are "Don't fire unless fired upon, until you bomb PH on 12-07."

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ORIGINAL: Feinder

There has been much discussion about "What if USA knew, and sailed out to meet the IJN fleet..." Blah, blah, blah.

My question is, What if say, KB had been spotted by Lex (or some other CV in the area), a few days before 12-07? What were their orders? They were under radio silence, no?

"What would KB have done if it had discovered a USN CV on say 12-05?" Were their orders to attack BEFORE 12-07?

Artwork graciously provided by Dixie

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ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

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It sounds like KBs orders are "Don't fire unless fired upon, until you bomb PH on 12-07."

Not sure a reading of the various orders supports that interpretation. I'll quote several relevent excerpts below:


The Commander-in-Chief of the Combined Fleet is empowered to use force in self-defense in case his fleet is challenged by American, British or Dutch forces during the process of carrying out military preparations.

2. The exercise of military authority cited in the Imperial General Headquarters Navy Order No. 5 will be effected in the event the American, British, or Dutch naval forces invade our territorial waters and carry out reconnaissance, or approach our territorial waters and their move is recognized to be threatening, or an aggressive act is taken to endanger us even beyond our territorial waters

JCW: so these two taken together (and the second is referring to the first) seem to authorize force to be used if threatening or endangering acts are taken ... were I the commander in question, I would not interpret this to mean only fire if fired upon, I would take this to mean, fire if as the commander on the spot, I mean enemy actions endanger the success of my mission. Such actions could include anything, movements, recon flights, anything that makes me as the commander believe my mission is threatened.

In the event that, during this operation, an enemy fleet attempts to intercept our force or a powerful enemy force is encountered and there is danger of attack, the Task Force will launch a counterattack.

JCW: again this third fragment, seems to indicate that counterattacks can be launched if there is danger of attack, no requirement is given that an enemy attack first be lauched. All, in all these sound like pretty liberal orders to me, essentially telling Nagumo, use your judgement, and if you see anything that threatens your force or your mission, you are free to destroy it.

Artwork graciously provided by Dixie

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I'd agree with you JW. I'd read this as "if someone gets in the way of your operation, sink 'em...but they probably won't."

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ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

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I'd agree with you JW. I'd read this as "if someone gets in the way of your operation, sink 'em...but they probably won't."

Based on Nagumo's subsequent performances, my guess would be, unless he was actually being attacked, he would be more likely to run. And note that these are reconstructed versions of the official orders, who knows what "informal" agreements he might have had with Yammamoto. Yammamoto, would likely not have wanted to fire the first shot, if negotiations were still possible, so it is plausible that he might have even unofficially authorized Nagumo to turn around, depending on how far he had progressed when spotted and depending on where the negotiations were. But that is all speculation, the question was "what were the orders" and TTBOMK these were the orders and they pretty much say shoot first and ask questions later.

Artwork graciously provided by Dixie

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Are you looking for actual historical records of orders, or are you asking for speculation?

"It is obvious that you have greatly over-estimated my regard for your opinion." - Me

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This dispatch is top secret.
This order is effective at 1730 on 2 December:
***** Combined Fleet Serial) #10.
Climb NIITAKAYAMA 1208, repeat 1208!

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ORIGINAL: Terminus

Might have been the action of a man who thought that his bosses would fire him if he did something considered timid for a second time.

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ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

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I'd agree with you JW. I'd read this as "if someone gets in the way of your operation, sink 'em...but they probably won't."

Based on Nagumo's subsequent performances, my guess would be, unless he was actually being attacked, he would be more likely to run. And note that these are reconstructed versions of the official orders, who knows what "informal" agreements he might have had with Yammamoto. Yammamoto, would likely not have wanted to fire the first shot, if negotiations were still possible, so it is plausible that he might have even unofficially authorized Nagumo to turn around, depending on how far he had progressed when spotted and depending on where the negotiations were. But that is all speculation, the question was "what were the orders" and TTBOMK these were the orders and they pretty much say shoot first and ask questions later.

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In the event that, during this operation, an enemy fleet attempts to intercept our force or a powerful enemy force is encountered and there is danger of attack, the Task Force will launch a counterattack.

JCW: again this third fragment, seems to indicate that counterattacks can be launched if there is danger of attack, no requirement is given that an enemy attack first be lauched. All, in all these sound like pretty liberal orders to me, essentially telling Nagumo, use your judgement, and if you see anything that threatens your force or your mission, you are free to destroy it.

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ORIGINAL: ChezDaJez

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In the event that, during this operation, an enemy fleet attempts to intercept our force or a powerful enemy force is encountered and there is danger of attack, the Task Force will launch a counterattack.

JCW: again this third fragment, seems to indicate that counterattacks can be launched if there is danger of attack, no requirement is given that an enemy attack first be lauched. All, in all these sound like pretty liberal orders to me, essentially telling Nagumo, use your judgement, and if you see anything that threatens your force or your mission, you are free to destroy it.

Assuming that Nagumo was within 24 hours of striking PH, I think that he would have launched against a US CV. Afterall, the CVs are what they were seeking.

Assuming KB sank the CV and was not significantly damaged in return, I think he would then still have attempted to strike Pearl Harbor, even if the US fleet had sortied. Potentially, this could have had far worse consequences than the historical attack as they would have had to concentrate on repair and fuel storage facilities instead. Pennsylvania would still have been in dry dock. The rest of the BBs would have sortied south if they were smart but it's possible that 1 or 2 may have still been close enough to port to be discovered and attacked.

Another option would have been to sail to a point where he thought the US BBs might sortie to and attempt to strike them there. This would have the benefit of avoiding the hornet's nest that would now surely be Pearl Harbor and sink many of the BBs in deep water.

Just a thought. "What ifs" can be fun to postulate on.

Chez

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But anything speculative is PROBABLY going to produce a result more favorable to the US.

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However, on the comments that Nagumo was a big chicken

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ORIGINAL: ChezDaJez

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But anything speculative is PROBABLY going to produce a result more favorable to the US.

I would agree in regards to losses of Japanese aircrews. However, they planned on taking far heavier losses than what they actually incurred.

However, I don't believe that any force at Pearl Harbor except several carriers had the means to inflict substantial damage on KB.

What Nagumo would have done after sinking a US CV is anyone's guess. But if I were Nagumo, I would rely upon my scout planes and subs to tell me where the fleet had gone. I then might select a course that would put KB in a position to cut them off if possible.

Without any tactical intel, I might take the fleet E/NE of PH in the hopes of finding any ships fleeing towards the West Coast. PH isn't going anywhere and once I've engaged the US fleet or ascertained that it can not be engaged, I can launch any necessary strikes against PH or retire. Assuming that I must strike PH, my first strike would target the airfields, specifically fighter airfields. If I'm able to gain air superiority, the repair and oil facilities would next be on the target list.
Chez

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You know exactly what advantages the game will give you, exactly where the US Fleet starts, where the US CV's were. Nagumo knew none of this. He knew he had charge of a number of his nations irreplacable assets..., and that he was several thousand miles from support or safety.

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ORIGINAL: ChezDaJez

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You know exactly what advantages the game will give you, exactly where the US Fleet starts, where the US CV's were. Nagumo knew none of this. He knew he had charge of a number of his nations irreplacable assets..., and that he was several thousand miles from support or safety.

My "what if" has nothing to do with WitP and the locations of US forces.

The premise is: What if Nagumo was presented with a present in the form of a US CV on Dec 6, 41? What would he have done?

The question is HOW would this happen? The two US CV's were a good deal South and West of Oahu; while Nagumo was coming down from due north of the island. This can only be a "what if" is someone was doing something totally stupid and against orders.

I think he would have attacked it and most likely sunk it. Then he has a choice. (1) Continue with the PH attack mission -or- (2) change his plans and attempt to engage any US ships that have sortied -or- (3) retire.

I'm sure that would have been what he tried to do too. But the chance of it happening was nil. Nagumo's course was determined specifically to avoid this kind of thing. His goal was SUPRISE.

(1) PH is alerted and the US fleet has most likely sortied. Is PH still a worthwhile target? Worthwhile in terms of damage inflicted versus losses to aircrews or damage to ships? In the Japanese mind, probably not the best choice. They want an engagement with the fleet, hopefully sink the remaining carrier. They know Saratoga is on the West Coast. They know that 2 carriers have been operating out of Pearl. Now one is sunk. Where is the other? Do they search for it or go after the BBs that have left port? What about option (2)?

And HOW does Nagumo KNOW that the Pacific Fleet has left PH? It isn't like he has satelite photography available. His first means of knowing would be when Fuchida & company arrived and found 100 fighters on CAP and no targets below. And as far as I can tell, the Japs had no idea where Saratoga was.

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ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl

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ORIGINAL: ChezDaJez

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You know exactly what advantages the game will give you, exactly where the US Fleet starts, where the US CV's were. Nagumo knew none of this. He knew he had charge of a number of his nations irreplacable assets..., and that he was several thousand miles from support or safety.

My "what if" has nothing to do with WitP and the locations of US forces.

The premise is: What if Nagumo was presented with a present in the form of a US CV on Dec 6, 41? What would he have done?

The question is HOW would this happen? The two US CV's were a good deal South and West of Oahu; while Nagumo was coming down from due north of the island. This can only be a "what if" is someone was doing something totally stupid and against orders.

I think he would have attacked it and most likely sunk it. Then he has a choice. (1) Continue with the PH attack mission -or- (2) change his plans and attempt to engage any US ships that have sortied -or- (3) retire.

I'm sure that would have been what he tried to do too. But the chance of it happening was nil. Nagumo's course was determined specifically to avoid this kind of thing. His goal was SUPRISE.

(1) PH is alerted and the US fleet has most likely sortied. Is PH still a worthwhile target? Worthwhile in terms of damage inflicted versus losses to aircrews or damage to ships? In the Japanese mind, probably not the best choice. They want an engagement with the fleet, hopefully sink the remaining carrier. They know Saratoga is on the West Coast. They know that 2 carriers have been operating out of Pearl. Now one is sunk. Where is the other? Do they search for it or go after the BBs that have left port? What about option (2)?

And HOW does Nagumo KNOW that the Pacific Fleet has left PH? It isn't like he has satelite photography available. His first means of knowing would be when Fuchida & company arrived and found 100 fighters on CAP and no targets below. And as far as I can tell, the Japs had no idea where Saratoga was.