How accurate are scouts?

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How accurate are scouts? - 7/20/2006 4:11:28 PM

rpommier

Posts: 71
Joined: 4/29/2005
Status: offline

Guys this has been bugging the hec outta me. How accurate are the scouts in PS? While I have had some nice suprises, there's no rhyme or reason to it. I have overpaid for quite a few guys,only to have them fizzle. However I have only had maybe 2 guys suprise me with performance jumps.

Is the potential an important stat? The pitcher I'm pissed about had a 9 potential and 7 across the top of his ratings card and 9,8 across the bottom. He went 0-8, not the R.Clemens no run support 0-8, but 0-8 as in serving up softballs for the other team. The next year his stuff dropped to 6 and his other ratings remained the same and his potential dropped to 7. Is that the scout lowering expectations or his real ratings?

By the way, this is an awesome game.

Rod

Post #: 1

RE: How accurate are scouts? - 7/21/2006 3:04:30 AM

henry296

Posts: 418
Joined: 5/12/2006
Status: offline

There is no scout error in the game. Difference in performance with two players with identical ratings is due to random chance.

(in reply to rpommier)

Post #: 2

RE: How accurate are scouts? - 7/21/2006 4:02:31 AM

rpommier

Posts: 71
Joined: 4/29/2005
Status: offline

I must be over thinking it then... So you're saying there's no hidden ratings in the game that could make a players actual ratings inaccurate? So a batter with a 6 contact hitting .340 and a 8 contact hitting .279 is purely coincidental? If that's the case then I cool with that...

Rod

(in reply to henry296)

Post #: 3

RE: How accurate are scouts? - 7/21/2006 4:40:49 AM

lynchjm24

Posts: 240
Joined: 8/21/2005
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: rpommier

I must be over thinking it then... So you're saying there's no hidden ratings in the game that could make a players actual ratings inaccurate? So a batter with a 6 contact hitting .340 and a 8 contact hitting .279 is purely coincidental? If that's the case then I cool with that...

Rod

Could be related to speed. Or how they are being used in a platoon situation. Also, it's in combination with eye/power - I don't find that contact=average.

(in reply to rpommier)

Post #: 4

RE: How accurate are scouts? - 7/21/2006 4:48:45 AM

verizon32

Posts: 168
Joined: 5/23/2006
Status: offline

Shaun did mention before that all players have hidden rating. Some will peak early and some will peak late. Some will reach there potential faster and some longer.

Looking at stats is important too to judge a player.

(in reply to lynchjm24)

Post #: 5

RE: How accurate are scouts? - 7/21/2006 4:57:42 AM

KG Erwin

Posts: 8981
Joined: 7/25/2000
From: Cross Lanes WV USA
Status: offline

You just never know. The scouts' ratings mean one thing, but the stats may tell you something else. What do you rely on: your gut instinct, the ratings, or the player's performance?

Nothing is certain in real life, and it goes the same in Pure Sim, which is as it should be.

(in reply to verizon32)

Post #: 6

RE: How accurate are scouts? - 7/21/2006 5:55:23 AM

akcranker

Posts: 477
Joined: 12/12/2005
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: rpommier

I must be over thinking it then... So you're saying there's no hidden ratings in the game that could make a players actual ratings inaccurate? So a batter with a 6 contact hitting .340 and a 8 contact hitting .279 is purely coincidental? If that's the case then I cool with that...

Rod

I would also say that you need to take in account what order they are in the batting order. Depending on where they are in the batting order and who hits ahead of them and behind them can affect their stats.

(in reply to rpommier)

Post #: 7

RE: How accurate are scouts? - 7/21/2006 6:41:11 AM

Claymore Cut

Posts: 270
Joined: 5/16/2006
Status: offline

There are some hidden ratings...

(in reply to akcranker)

Post #: 8

RE: How accurate are scouts? - 7/21/2006 6:46:42 AM

rpommier

Posts: 71
Joined: 4/29/2005
Status: offline

Ok guys... is there a FAQ or something I can read on this? Or how about a good book? My baseball knowledge isn't the best, but I am intrigued by this game and baseball. I know that certain stats affect other things, but haven't watched baseball long enough to grasp what the underlying stats really mean.

I read Moneyball (dynamite read), anything else similar to it that could help me understand the meaning of the stats? Or will it just take time?

Rod

(in reply to akcranker)

Post #: 9

RE: How accurate are scouts? - 7/21/2006 3:54:35 PM

Abev

Posts: 228
Joined: 8/11/2005
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: rpommier

Ok guys... is there a FAQ or something I can read on this? Or how about a good book? My baseball knowledge isn't the best, but I am intrigued by this game and baseball. I know that certain stats affect other things, but haven't watched baseball long enough to grasp what the underlying stats really mean.

I read Moneyball (dynamite read), anything else similar to it that could help me understand the meaning of the stats? Or will it just take time?

Rod

How serious do you want to get? Goto sabr.org . Read anything by Bill James. A good start on bill james is this article. Warning might cause fights between friends.

James is the real brains behind moneyball, not all those other supporting characters.

The thing about baseball stats that I think people need to understand is that they are just calcuation of results. They have no other meaning than that.

Like whenever a player on someones team (in real life) goes on a "hot streak" say 20-45, they cant believe it when he goes cold like 10-70. Something must be wrong with him, or here in NY "he s*cks".

To further demonstrate: I love it when you get the isolated stats like Runners in scoring position or BA with the bases loaded. Well for those at bats, whats their BA vs that pitcher? their BA vs Lefty or Righty, their BA during night or day games?

Two stats I hope to one day perfect:

The Posada Effect (sorry Jorge) - RealRBI and RealBA Calculation of stats when the game actually means something, not when your team is up 7 runs in the 9th. Greater weight would be placed on higher pressure game on the line situations.

RealSplits - Taken into account the "spells" before and after a batter faces a specific pitcher. Someones in a 0-21 slump and faces a rookie pitcher and goes 0-4. Works in reverse too.

See what caffeine does? I have to lay down now.

(in reply to rpommier)

Post #: 10

RE: How accurate are scouts? - 7/21/2006 9:18:09 PM

SittingDuck

Posts: 1166
Joined: 9/1/2002
Status: offline

I like your rational thinking, Abev. I warned a bunch of forum nuts back in the spring when Tejada was hitting over .400 in monster fashion - he will come back to his average, most likely, and that means a serious cold stretch with ugly numbers.

The human need to quantify and calculate so as to judge is a complex thing.

(in reply to Abev)

Post #: 11

RE: How accurate are scouts? - 7/21/2006 10:41:58 PM

rowech

Posts: 215
Joined: 6/9/2005
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: rpommier

Ok guys... is there a FAQ or something I can read on this? Or how about a good book? My baseball knowledge isn't the best, but I am intrigued by this game and baseball. I know that certain stats affect other things, but haven't watched baseball long enough to grasp what the underlying stats really mean.

I read Moneyball (dynamite read), anything else similar to it that could help me understand the meaning of the stats? Or will it just take time?

Rod

Wow...so many books.

Books for the stat geek:

Bill James Historical Abstract...a must have. (James)

Baseball Between the Numbers...a very recent book and a good read. (Baseball Prospectus)

Baseball Prospectus website...writers of the above book. at times they can be a bit pompous and you won't buy everything they say but some good stuff to think about.

Books for baseball appreciation:

Ocboter, 1964 (Halberstam)

Baseball and other Matters in 1941 (Creamer)

(in reply to rpommier)

Post #: 12

RE: How accurate are scouts? - 7/21/2006 11:07:52 PM

JimboJ

Posts: 70
Joined: 10/8/2005
Status: offline

I have never heard anything about hidden ratings, and as far as I know there are no scouts.� My understanding is the only ratings are those that are displayed, and they determine the likelyhood of getting a hit, out, etc.� As far as stats, I don't think they are very useful in making lineup or personel decisions in this game.�

Stats are only as good as the sample size you are looking at. For instance,�I have two pinch hitters with very few at bats. The first one has�a .200 average but is rated 8 in contact hitting, and the second has a .300 average, but is rated a 5 in contact hitting.� Which one do you use?� I go with the first one, because he has a better chance of getting a hit, despite the fact that his average is lower.�

< Message edited by JimboJ -- 7/21/2006 11:14:31 PM >

(in reply to rowech)

Post #: 13

RE: How accurate are scouts? - 7/21/2006 11:27:43 PM

Amaroq

Posts: 1100
Joined: 8/3/2005
From: San Diego, California
Status: offline

JimboJ, I can say from direct conversation with Shaun that there are hidden ratings.

He plays his cards pretty close to the vest, and so didn't tell me exactly how they play into the pitcher-batter equation, but they do exist.

One obvious and observable one is 'vs lefty' and 'vs righty'. You can definitely find players who have almost no difference in batting average either way, and you can find players who have a .100 point difference. If you observe those players over five to ten seasons, you'll find some for whom that was a statistical oddity in one season, but you'll find many who consistently put up similar numbers, season after season. That rating is not made visible to the user in any way, but is discernable via observing the stats.

For a quick example of this, take your association and look at the top 20 batting averages, the top 20 home run hitters, and the top 20 on-base-percentage players. While they will have *good* contact, power, and eye, respectively, I don't think you'll find a direct correlation - the batting average leader may have a 73 contact, not the 99 you might have expected.

When I first started playing PS, I was very heavily in the 'always trust the ratings' camp, and the more I've played and learned about the game, I've come to rely on the ratings as well as the stats. Of course, you have to *draft* on ratings, but for other decisions I try to consider all the data.

In Jimbo's example, I, too, would use the 8 contact hitter - because the few at bats indicate that the data is statistically insignificant.

However, if I were looking at last year's batting averages, and they'd each had 500 at bats, I would go with the '5' who had a .300 average, concluding that there is something 'wrong' with the .200 hitter.

< Message edited by Amaroq -- 7/21/2006 11:30:28 PM >

(in reply to JimboJ)

Post #: 14

RE: How accurate are scouts? - 7/21/2006 11:30:03 PM

rpommier

Posts: 71
Joined: 4/29/2005
Status: offline

I run into anonolies like that too, which leads me to believe that there are indeed hidden ratings. I have a pitcher with steller stats that went 0-8 before I pulled him. Teams would hit off of him like no tomorrw. There has to be something there that we aren't seeing. I know run production has something to do with it. But if the guy is down by 3 or 5 runs by the first inning he just sucks! And this guy would do it, regularly. He had 7 Stuff 7 Velocity 8 Control and a potentional of 9... His stats have fallen some more in his 3rd year, yet his potential is still at 7. Why does he suck? There some rating that we can't see.

vr,
Rod

(in reply to JimboJ)

Post #: 15

RE: How accurate are scouts? - 7/21/2006 11:56:18 PM

JimboJ

Posts: 70
Joined: 10/8/2005
Status: offline

Thanks Amaroq, thats good to know. Now I'm very curious how the displayed ratings interact with the hidden ratings. It would be cool if the hidden ratings allowed for slumps. So the better player may not necessarily be the best one to use if he is currently mired in a slump, and therefore you need to look at his recent performance as well as stats.

(in reply to Amaroq)

Post #: 16