Ullern
Posts: 1837
Joined: 5/28/2006 Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Froonp While I was digging my hard drive with something about US Entry Chits, I found this VERY interesting piece of statistic about the A2A table. IMO it shows something highly interesting. I'll try to show it using an example : The German sends an air mission against the British, escorted by 1 FTR who has an air to air combat factor of 6. The British can only intercept with 2 FTR with air to air combat factor of 5. Well, the thing is, from the statistics below, that the British would be better advised to only send 1 FTR, fighting at +1/-1 (+1 for Germans) rather than send all their FTRs to fight at 0/0. I explain : Fighting at 0, or -1, the Brits have the same chance of letting the enemy bomber clear through : 36%. Clear through being the worst the Brits want to happen. Fighting at 0, or +1, the Germans have the same chance of hurting the British fighters : 56%. So, same chances of suffering losses, same chances of letting the enemy clear through, why send 2 planes. By sparing 1 FTR, the British may well be able latter to intercept an enemy mission that he would not been able to intercept if he had sent both his FTRs in the first raid. Indeed, fighting at -1 instead of 0 will have the Brits score more - (no effect), twice indeed. Scoring no effects is bad, as this let the chance to the enemy to live to fight for a further round. So it may have bad effects, to be at -1 instead of 0, but if you're stranded and short of FTRs, and want to spare some to achieve air superiority somewhere in the future, you can try this. If the German air mission is a ground strike against an out of supply Gort and black print MECH then Patrices argument is bullshit of course. In other cases it would be good. It all depends on the situation. I will now add the following information: A) I assume the phasing player (the German) will abort or kill his own FTR if he gets the choice (DA or DX results). B) If the CW FTR isn't removed but the German FTR is removed the German player will abort the combat. With those two asumptions the standings after one round of combat is: LND cleared directly: 36% LND cleared because it survived but CW FTR is aborted or destroyed: 27% LND aborted or destroyed directly: 16% LND aborted because CW FTR survives but the German FTR does not: 8% Bounce combat on German LND: 9% No result: 4% To simplify I will assume that the bounce combat will abort or destroy the LND 70% of the time and clear him 20% of the time (roughly +4/-4 odds). Then I can write the results after first combat round even simpler: 1 FTR against 1 FTR + 1 LND with the A2A beeing -1 and +1 respectively gives the following results after one round of combat: LND cleared: 65% No result: 4% LND aborted or destroyed: 31% On the other hand if the CW had two FTR fighting at zero A2A. Then the similar odds after one round of combat would be (roughly estimated): LND cleared: 45% No result: 1% LND aborted or destroyed: 54% Would you rather have a 31% abort chance in two different combats (which gives you a 53% chance of aborting at least one of them, but a small chance for aborting both) or do you want 54% abort chance in a single combat only? It all depends doesn’t it?
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