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RE: Aviation Support - 1/24/2008 2:36:26 PM   
Hipper

 

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quote:

Not one historical example of this could I find in WW2 but it is a daily occurence in the game.


In recognition of most conspicuous bravery. This officer was the pilot of a Beaufort aircraft of Coastal Command which was detailed to attack an enemy battle cruiser in Brest Harbour at first light on the morning of 6th April 1941. The aircraft did not return but it is known that a torpedo attack was carried out with the utmost daring.
The battle cruiser was secured alongside the wall on the north shore of the harbour, protected by a stone mole bending around it from the west. On rising ground behind the ship stood protective batteries of guns. Other batteries were clustered thickly round the two arms of land which encircle the outer harbour. In this outer harbour near the mole were moored three heavily-armed anti-aircraft ships, guarding the battle cruiser. Even if an aircraft succeeded in penetrating these formidable defences, it would be almost impossible, after delivering a low-level attack, to avoid crashing into the rising ground beyond.

This was well known to Flying Officer Campbell who, despising the heavy odds, went cheerfully and resolutely to the task. He ran the gauntlet of the defences. Coming in at almost sea level, he passed the anti-aircraft ships at less than mast-height in the very mouths of their guns and skimming over the mole launched a torpedo at point-blank range.

The battle cruiser was severely damaged below the water-line and was obliged to return to the dock whence she had come only the day before. By pressing home his attack at close quarters in the face of withering fire on a course fraught with extreme peril, Flying Officer Campbell displayed valour of the highest order.

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/24/2008 3:16:46 PM   
castor troy


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isn´t a 1E aircraft though...

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/24/2008 5:06:34 PM   
spence

 

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I think what Ron is really objecting to is the relatively common multiengine torpedo bomber attacks in harbor (spit it out Ron - what you really mean are attacks by Bettys and Nells on shipping in harbor) which occur in the game of which the above cited is an example (though not involving Bettys or Nells). I hate them too but my biggest objection is not so much that they occur but that they score a percentage of hits that is ten or more times the rate at which they scored hits historically; that is, with the one and only one exception of the sinking of the PoW and Repulse. That attack was not against ships in harbor but in it the IJN flyers scored 20-30% hits with their torpedos. In common with a number of other RL events that singular performance appears to be taken as the standard by which the in-game weapons systems are judged. (Certainly one can not expect those same bombers to score fewer hits against ships tied up to a pier than they did against hi-speed warships manuevering at sea even though the ship's ability to manuever or not might well be the least of the problems faced by torpedo bombers attacking a harbor as the afore cited example indicates.) If the rate with which the Bettys and Nells score hits was brought in line with their historical average and if the availability of torpedos was a bit more in line with historical availability the problem would probably go away (aren't torpedos less available in AE?). But then the problem might be that PoW and Repulse can blithely sail into the South China Sea and wreak havoc on the IJN on turn 2 which would probably be a little too depressing for IJ Players.

The air units that attacked PoW and Repulse had evidently undergone intensive training in attacking ships with torpedos. From the tone of the interview with the former operations officer (I think) of one of those Daitai this training was not generic in any sense. Perhaps the specialization of aircraft/pilots for different mission profiles will correct the overall problem of Bettys/Nells undue capabilities if not all Betty/Nell Daitai are initially given the torpedo attack specialty.


(Certainly PH and Taranto and quite a few attacks by TF38/58 involved torpedo attacks in harbors by single engine torpedo bombers. Of note though is that the attacks on Port Darwin and the harbors in Ceylon by both Bettys and/or the torpedo bombers of the KB did not involve torpedo attacks.)

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/24/2008 6:00:12 PM   
witpqs


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So we're up to three examples - Taranto, Brest, and Pearl Harbor...

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/24/2008 6:11:00 PM   
Feinder


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Maybe this has been brought up as a "solution" tothe torp-prolific planes, but why not just create a bomber version and torp version of the same plane (obvioulsy, you're limited by slots). 

A plane that truely was a torpedo bomber by default, like Kate and Swordfish, would be unchanged of course. 

But you could have a torp version of the Nell and a bomb version (still classed as level bomber).  You just assign the squadrons to use whichever version. 

You could limit the number of torp squadrons and that would relect the limited the number of squadrson actually trained in torpedo attacks.  The extended range of the torp bombers could carry the AP bombs (given their mission is to attack ships). 

And for the "bomber" squadrons, you could change the load-out to carry GP bombs, thus making them more effective at bombing AFs (which as I recall is a probem because normally the 2e Jap bombers are dropping AP bombs on AFs).

Do-able?

-F-

< Message edited by Feinder -- 1/24/2008 6:12:53 PM >


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RE: Aviation Support - 1/24/2008 6:22:26 PM   
witpqs


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I thought they already have different kinds of pilot training being tracked in AE? If torpedo attacks is one of the kinds, we should be go to go (along with limiting torpedoes via logistics).

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/24/2008 6:42:32 PM   
spence

 

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quote:

So we're up to three examples - Taranto, Brest, and Pearl Harbor...


As far single engine bombers attacking ships in bases with torpedos there are additional examples in the raids by TF 38/58 on Truk, the Japanese Home Islands. I think torpedos were used in a carrier raid on Rabaul in late 1943 as well. Examples of multiengine a/c torpedo attacks on ships in harbor are much harder to find. Lots of ships in Singapore Roadstead in late 41/early 42 yet I don't think there was even one raid on the shipping there that featured torpedo attacks.

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/24/2008 7:15:19 PM   
bradfordkay

 

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So far Brest is the only example mentioned that involves multi-engined torpedo bombers.

I am of the opinion that all anti-shipping attacks are too successful in the game - that something needs to be done to reduce the number of hits made by bombers of both sides.

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/24/2008 8:05:16 PM   
witpqs


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Maybe so, but I was also thinking about the other changes they are making. Pilot skill being tougher to achieve (has a lot to do with getting hits), reduced readiness rate for aircraft + higher ops losses = fewer attack sorties. It might be interesting to see how the play testing/beta testing goes.

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/24/2008 8:07:29 PM   
Feinder


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quote:

I am of the opinion that all anti-shipping attacks are too successful in the game - that something needs to be done to reduce the number of hits made by bombers of both sides.


Do I think it's too accurate (both level bombing and torpedos).  Yes.

But I also think that most ships take too much punishment before going down (combination of them being too robust to begin with, the fact that they often take 3-4 days to sink, and that strikes continue to pummel a striken ship).

So I'll add the warning that if you make the targeting harder (fewer hits), you also make it much more difficult to sink something.

Now, that all may have been address previously in this thread (not sure), and I'd bet that (even if it wasn't addressed), that it has been looked at - given the new damage locations means reworking the damage code anyway).

But I'm just saying that be careful for reducing the accuracy (which would be empirically correct), because it would probably make things even harder to sink.

-F-

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/24/2008 9:27:39 PM   
Mike Solli


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Feinder

quote:

I am of the opinion that all anti-shipping attacks are too successful in the game - that something needs to be done to reduce the number of hits made by bombers of both sides.


Do I think it's too accurate (both level bombing and torpedos).  Yes.

But I also think that most ships take too much punishment before going down (combination of them being too robust to begin with, the fact that they often take 3-4 days to sink, and that strikes continue to pummel a striken ship).

So I'll add the warning that if you make the targeting harder (fewer hits), you also make it much more difficult to sink something.

Now, that all may have been address previously in this thread (not sure), and I'd bet that (even if it wasn't addressed), that it has been looked at - given the new damage locations means reworking the damage code anyway).

But I'm just saying that be careful for reducing the accuracy (which would be empirically correct), because it would probably make things even harder to sink.

-F-


I think that having 12 different stats for pilots will do much to address your issue of bombing being too accurate.

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/24/2008 9:37:11 PM   
spence

 

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quote:

But I also think that most ships take too much punishment before going down (combination of them being too robust to begin with, the fact that they often take 3-4 days to sink, and that strikes continue to pummel a striken ship).



I agree with this. I think that compared to RL merchies in particular are way too robust.
3-4 days to sink is way too long when the ship only has half a dozen watertight compartments to begin with.

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/24/2008 11:26:46 PM   
The Gnome


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Altitude - setting it bugs me... why? When we ask about things like being able to specify weapon load outs we're told that type of thing is too tactical oriented - but setting altitudes for every squadron in theater isn't?

I know this isn't something being looked at, but setting altitudes at all should be beyond our scope as theater commanders.

edit note: cleaned up grammar

< Message edited by The Gnome -- 1/24/2008 11:34:01 PM >

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/24/2008 11:31:17 PM   
witpqs


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I agree. The game would be fine without players setting altitudes.

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/24/2008 11:48:42 PM   
The Gnome


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I guess what bugs me about the altitude thing is that many just use it to game the model. They find what they perceive to be the optimal altitude for a given mission and set everything there.

In reality altitudes were subject to all sorts of things, visibility - due to weather or smoke - flight conditions, mistakes, commander intuition, etc etc. I think if altitude were at least very variable the system would at least stop being gamed.


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RE: Aviation Support - 1/25/2008 12:20:51 AM   
Ron Saueracker


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

So we're up to three examples - Taranto, Brest, and Pearl Harbor...


Ahhh...the attack on Gneisenau was a 2E Beaufort (great example...totally forgot about this one off occurence.) Taranto was by 1E Swordfish and Pearl Harbor was by 1E Kates. As SPENCE said, my objection has been about the larger 2E types (Allied and Axis) being given ahistoric capability by allowing unhindered attacks in ports.

Even the famous Luftwaffe attack on shipping Bari by JU88s was conducted with bombs, not torps, because those in charge realised that it was physically near impossible to even hit the odd ship.


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RE: Aviation Support - 1/25/2008 12:27:56 AM   
Ron Saueracker


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Maybe so, but I was also thinking about the other changes they are making. Pilot skill being tougher to achieve (has a lot to do with getting hits), reduced readiness rate for aircraft + higher ops losses = fewer attack sorties. It might be interesting to see how the play testing/beta testing goes.


Well, I've been playing a CHS mod I made vs the AI (I'm bored, OK?) which is the same mod Bill and I played last year to test a few issues I tried to address, and pilot experience was drastically dropped (avg pilot is in the 30s) and weapon accuracy was dropped 50% across the board. Despite the lower experience and weapon accuracy levels I'm still seeing Bettys/Nells torpedoing PT boats, maneuvering ships being hit 30+ times etc! Hopefully they are really checking under the hood and can make the capabilities more believable.


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RE: Aviation Support - 1/25/2008 3:21:25 AM   
Feinder


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I hate the altitude settings as well.  I had a thread on it this past week, but folks pretty much said, "That's the way it is."

-F-

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/25/2008 3:35:59 AM   
The Gnome


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Feinder

I hate the altitude settings as well. I had a thread on it this past week, but folks pretty much said, "That's the way it is."

-F-

Whoops sorry I missed your thread Feinder!

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/25/2008 9:25:58 AM   
TheElf


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this is not a debate thread. Please take it elsewhere.

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/25/2008 11:49:14 PM   
vonHindenburg

 

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Okay, my Questions:

1. How many (number) new types of airplanes will arrive in Admirals Edition?
2. What kind (Types) of airplanes are new in AE?
3. More variations for other airplanes as example as Ki-61?

Thanks for answering my questions. :)

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/26/2008 1:41:43 AM   
timtom


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quote:

ORIGINAL: vonHindenburg

Okay, my Questions:

1. How many (number) new types of airplanes will arrive in Admirals Edition?
2. What kind (Types) of airplanes are new in AE?
3. More variations for other airplanes as example as Ki-61?

Thanks for answering my questions. :)



1) 500+. However as a/c are now categorised by nation, some of these are "dublicates" of the same a/c, fx four counts of PV-1's, one for each service that used it.

2) Light- and attack bombers, tac recon, float transports. Certain others have been reworked, like the float fighter.

3. Loads more.


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RE: Aviation Support - 1/26/2008 1:59:29 AM   
spence

 

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quote:

1) 500+. However as a/c are now categorised by nation, some of these are "dublicates" of the same a/c, fx four counts of PV-1's, one for each service that used it.


The PV-1 was initially built with two fixed .50 cal in the nose and a glass nose and carried a bombardeer. Later it was field modified with an metal nose and a 3 fixed .50 gun pack under the nose. This variation became the most common one in service thereafter. Included?

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/26/2008 5:45:10 AM   
Shark7


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quote:

ORIGINAL: timtom


quote:

ORIGINAL: vonHindenburg

Okay, my Questions:

1. How many (number) new types of airplanes will arrive in Admirals Edition?
2. What kind (Types) of airplanes are new in AE?
3. More variations for other airplanes as example as Ki-61?

Thanks for answering my questions. :)



1) 500+. However as a/c are now categorised by nation, some of these are "dublicates" of the same a/c, fx four counts of PV-1's, one for each service that used it.

2) Light- and attack bombers, tac recon, float transports. Certain others have been reworked, like the float fighter.

3. Loads more.



Which leads into this question:

With all these new stock additions, will there still be ample slots for the modders amoung us to add additional a/c for all sides?

Keeping in mind that the stock WITP didn't really give the Japanese side a lot of extra slots to work with, one has to be willing to give to gain...I'd like to avoid this if possible.


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RE: Aviation Support - 1/26/2008 8:02:53 AM   
el cid again

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: spence

I think what Ron is really objecting to is the relatively common multiengine torpedo bomber attacks in harbor (spit it out Ron - what you really mean are attacks by Bettys and Nells on shipping in harbor) which occur in the game of which the above cited is an example (though not involving Bettys or Nells). I hate them too but my biggest objection is not so much that they occur but that they score a percentage of hits that is ten or more times the rate at which they scored hits historically; that is, with the one and only one exception of the sinking of the PoW and Repulse. That attack was not against ships in harbor but in it the IJN flyers scored 20-30% hits with their torpedos. In common with a number of other RL events that singular performance appears to be taken as the standard by which the in-game weapons systems are judged. (Certainly one can not expect those same bombers to score fewer hits against ships tied up to a pier than they did against hi-speed warships manuevering at sea even though the ship's ability to manuever or not might well be the least of the problems faced by torpedo bombers attacking a harbor as the afore cited example indicates.) If the rate with which the Bettys and Nells score hits was brought in line with their historical average and if the availability of torpedos was a bit more in line with historical availability the problem would probably go away (aren't torpedos less available in AE?). But then the problem might be that PoW and Repulse can blithely sail into the South China Sea and wreak havoc on the IJN on turn 2 which would probably be a little too depressing for IJ Players.

The air units that attacked PoW and Repulse had evidently undergone intensive training in attacking ships with torpedos. From the tone of the interview with the former operations officer (I think) of one of those Daitai this training was not generic in any sense. Perhaps the specialization of aircraft/pilots for different mission profiles will correct the overall problem of Bettys/Nells undue capabilities if not all Betty/Nell Daitai are initially given the torpedo attack specialty.


(Certainly PH and Taranto and quite a few attacks by TF38/58 involved torpedo attacks in harbors by single engine torpedo bombers. Of note though is that the attacks on Port Darwin and the harbors in Ceylon by both Bettys and/or the torpedo bombers of the KB did not involve torpedo attacks.)


A technical observation here - which is not quite the same thing as saying there is nothing of value in Spence's point of view:

IF we take the attack on Force Z as a base

AND IF we compare it with an attack on ships in harbor

THEN we OUGHT TO SEE a MUCH HIGHER hit rate.

The chance of hitting a stationary target - or a slow target almost unable to maneuver as a ship in harbor is -
is far highter than it is of hitting a ship at full speed with complete freedom of maneuver as POW and Repulse had.

This observation leads me to be suspect of Spence's reasoning: he is reasoning from conclusions; he is not thinking about what SHOULD happen in a port.

For a better case of what should happen in port, look at PH or at Tarantao. Wether torpedo bombers have one or two engines machts nichts - they must fly low, strait, and not jink to have a good shot - and more or fewer engines changes nothing whatever about that. At PH it appears that it may be "every torpedo fired which did not bury itself in the mud struck a target." The principle uncertainty is "was one of the torpedoes fired NOT fired by an aircraft?" - and the answer to that uncertainty causes a slight variation in the hit rate. Note, however, that WITP so far does NOT provide for submarines to enter harbor - never mind that it really happened - nor does it provide for ships to have active or passive defenses (e.g. torpedo nets). It may be that some fraction of the torpedoes WOULD HAVE BEEN defeated had nets been rigged at PH. It also is not yet in the game that we can rate ports ease of entry in some way - so a place like Lahaina will seem less attractive because of its exposure to torpedo attacks. Lots of things might be changed/added - but the basic algorithms do not seem to be fundamentally wrong - just not properly modified for all situations.

In a mechanical game system requiring dozens of players to work out the math, played in public at Metro Seattle Gamers at Seattle University,
a wierd set of strategic circumstances caused a major naval engagement involving virtually every Allied cruiser in the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean to engage a small task force of the IJN (so small that this game, which had many old players of great experience, that the task force was commanded by two high school boys - one in command - the other boss of two CVLs). This game involved a serious statistical number of torpedo attacks - of all types - ship, aircraft and submarine. The Japanese were pinned - unable even to try to run by the necessity of defending transport ships - and they had only two Battleships (Nagato and Mutsu) supported by appropriate numbers of cruisers and destroyers. I did a statistical analysis and found exactly 1 in 6 torpedoes found its mark - regardless of the fact we required REAL torpedo fire control solutions and tracked EACH torpedo - or that only a minority of players had ever done this before. If there is a "target rich environment" the number of hits can indeed be above 10% - although that won't happen for distant maneuvering targets in small numbers. I found that often a torpedo intended for one ship hit another ship. If we went to a really sophisticated analysis system, we would have to think about missed shots, particularly if there are many potential targets close abeam - as in harbor. As once happened in a famous Fletcher Pratt game in a New York gymnasium (a housewife beat a real navy captain of destroyers) our high school boys came off looking very good indeed - they made not a single operational mistake in the days and hours leading up to the tactical battle - and all we had to do was give their ships players to work out what happened. Designed to win a decisive naval battle at sea - it looks to me like the one place the Japanese torpedo was truly decisive was in port.


< Message edited by el cid again -- 1/26/2008 8:19:26 AM >

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/26/2008 8:23:48 AM   
el cid again

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Feinder

Maybe this has been brought up as a "solution" tothe torp-prolific planes, but why not just create a bomber version and torp version of the same plane (obvioulsy, you're limited by slots). 

A plane that truely was a torpedo bomber by default, like Kate and Swordfish, would be unchanged of course. 

But you could have a torp version of the Nell and a bomb version (still classed as level bomber).  You just assign the squadrons to use whichever version. 

You could limit the number of torp squadrons and that would relect the limited the number of squadrson actually trained in torpedo attacks.  The extended range of the torp bombers could carry the AP bombs (given their mission is to attack ships). 

And for the "bomber" squadrons, you could change the load-out to carry GP bombs, thus making them more effective at bombing AFs (which as I recall is a probem because normally the 2e Jap bombers are dropping AP bombs on AFs).

Do-able?

-F-


You can game this solution in RHS right now. Many aircraft are given different loadouts at the unit level. We have GP bombs, AP bombs,
torpedoes and even ASW loadouts. It does make the number of torpedo attacks significantly less - and it is a very good concept. I think Spence first suggested it - and I have been playing with it.

Ideally we should let players select loadouts - but if that is not in the present cards - let the nature of the air unit select the loadout. What is needed is not so much more slots (which AE does have) as reports that look at the unit instead of the aircraft type - then players can "see" the loadouts they are using.

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/26/2008 8:26:53 AM   
el cid again

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: bradfordkay

So far Brest is the only example mentioned that involves multi-engined torpedo bombers.

I am of the opinion that all anti-shipping attacks are too successful in the game - that something needs to be done to reduce the number of hits made by bombers of both sides.


Reducing the number of units making torpedo attacks works.

Making AA realistic - so players move to higher altitudes (where bombs are less likely to hit) or get shot down (making it impossible to drop the bombs) - goes a long way to reducing the number of bomb hits.

Bomb hit algorithms are well known and as far as I can tell Matrix got in the ball park with them.

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/26/2008 8:31:18 AM   
el cid again

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: The Gnome

I guess what bugs me about the altitude thing is that many just use it to game the model. They find what they perceive to be the optimal altitude for a given mission and set everything there.

In reality altitudes were subject to all sorts of things, visibility - due to weather or smoke - flight conditions, mistakes, commander intuition, etc etc. I think if altitude were at least very variable the system would at least stop being gamed.




Let them. Skilled players will eat them for breakfest. You should not be predictable - never do the same thing twice in a row is better practice than "do the same thing every time." I LOVE to KNOW you will fly at this or that altitude.

NOT being able to set altitude is a fairly serious handicap - and takes out the "flavor" of an operational contest. There are sound reasons not to be forced to do the same thing every time - and who wants a die setting it?

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RE: Aviation Support - 1/26/2008 8:33:59 AM   
el cid again

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ron Saueracker


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Maybe so, but I was also thinking about the other changes they are making. Pilot skill being tougher to achieve (has a lot to do with getting hits), reduced readiness rate for aircraft + higher ops losses = fewer attack sorties. It might be interesting to see how the play testing/beta testing goes.


Well, I've been playing a CHS mod I made vs the AI (I'm bored, OK?) which is the same mod Bill and I played last year to test a few issues I tried to address, and pilot experience was drastically dropped (avg pilot is in the 30s) and weapon accuracy was dropped 50% across the board. Despite the lower experience and weapon accuracy levels I'm still seeing Bettys/Nells torpedoing PT boats, maneuvering ships being hit 30+ times etc! Hopefully they are really checking under the hood and can make the capabilities more believable.




Torpedo hits on PT boats was "fixed" in UV days - but somehow it still happens. It was formaly addressed more than once -but somehow there is something that lets it occur. Any such attack should miss- the torpedo would pass under the target.

(in reply to Ron Saueracker)
Post #: 599
RE: Aviation Support - 1/26/2008 5:23:06 PM   
Shark7


Posts: 7937
Joined: 7/24/2007
From: The Big Nowhere
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again

quote:

ORIGINAL: spence

I think what Ron is really objecting to is the relatively common multiengine torpedo bomber attacks in harbor (spit it out Ron - what you really mean are attacks by Bettys and Nells on shipping in harbor) which occur in the game of which the above cited is an example (though not involving Bettys or Nells). I hate them too but my biggest objection is not so much that they occur but that they score a percentage of hits that is ten or more times the rate at which they scored hits historically; that is, with the one and only one exception of the sinking of the PoW and Repulse. That attack was not against ships in harbor but in it the IJN flyers scored 20-30% hits with their torpedos. In common with a number of other RL events that singular performance appears to be taken as the standard by which the in-game weapons systems are judged. (Certainly one can not expect those same bombers to score fewer hits against ships tied up to a pier than they did against hi-speed warships manuevering at sea even though the ship's ability to manuever or not might well be the least of the problems faced by torpedo bombers attacking a harbor as the afore cited example indicates.) If the rate with which the Bettys and Nells score hits was brought in line with their historical average and if the availability of torpedos was a bit more in line with historical availability the problem would probably go away (aren't torpedos less available in AE?). But then the problem might be that PoW and Repulse can blithely sail into the South China Sea and wreak havoc on the IJN on turn 2 which would probably be a little too depressing for IJ Players.

The air units that attacked PoW and Repulse had evidently undergone intensive training in attacking ships with torpedos. From the tone of the interview with the former operations officer (I think) of one of those Daitai this training was not generic in any sense. Perhaps the specialization of aircraft/pilots for different mission profiles will correct the overall problem of Bettys/Nells undue capabilities if not all Betty/Nell Daitai are initially given the torpedo attack specialty.


(Certainly PH and Taranto and quite a few attacks by TF38/58 involved torpedo attacks in harbors by single engine torpedo bombers. Of note though is that the attacks on Port Darwin and the harbors in Ceylon by both Bettys and/or the torpedo bombers of the KB did not involve torpedo attacks.)


A technical observation here - which is not quite the same thing as saying there is nothing of value in Spence's point of view:

IF we take the attack on Force Z as a base

AND IF we compare it with an attack on ships in harbor

THEN we OUGHT TO SEE a MUCH HIGHER hit rate.

The chance of hitting a stationary target - or a slow target almost unable to maneuver as a ship in harbor is -
is far highter than it is of hitting a ship at full speed with complete freedom of maneuver as POW and Repulse had.

This observation leads me to be suspect of Spence's reasoning: he is reasoning from conclusions; he is not thinking about what SHOULD happen in a port.

For a better case of what should happen in port, look at PH or at Tarantao. Wether torpedo bombers have one or two engines machts nichts - they must fly low, strait, and not jink to have a good shot - and more or fewer engines changes nothing whatever about that. At PH it appears that it may be "every torpedo fired which did not bury itself in the mud struck a target." The principle uncertainty is "was one of the torpedoes fired NOT fired by an aircraft?" - and the answer to that uncertainty causes a slight variation in the hit rate. Note, however, that WITP so far does NOT provide for submarines to enter harbor - never mind that it really happened - nor does it provide for ships to have active or passive defenses (e.g. torpedo nets). It may be that some fraction of the torpedoes WOULD HAVE BEEN defeated had nets been rigged at PH. It also is not yet in the game that we can rate ports ease of entry in some way - so a place like Lahaina will seem less attractive because of its exposure to torpedo attacks. Lots of things might be changed/added - but the basic algorithms do not seem to be fundamentally wrong - just not properly modified for all situations.

In a mechanical game system requiring dozens of players to work out the math, played in public at Metro Seattle Gamers at Seattle University,
a wierd set of strategic circumstances caused a major naval engagement involving virtually every Allied cruiser in the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean to engage a small task force of the IJN (so small that this game, which had many old players of great experience, that the task force was commanded by two high school boys - one in command - the other boss of two CVLs). This game involved a serious statistical number of torpedo attacks - of all types - ship, aircraft and submarine. The Japanese were pinned - unable even to try to run by the necessity of defending transport ships - and they had only two Battleships (Nagato and Mutsu) supported by appropriate numbers of cruisers and destroyers. I did a statistical analysis and found exactly 1 in 6 torpedoes found its mark - regardless of the fact we required REAL torpedo fire control solutions and tracked EACH torpedo - or that only a minority of players had ever done this before. If there is a "target rich environment" the number of hits can indeed be above 10% - although that won't happen for distant maneuvering targets in small numbers. I found that often a torpedo intended for one ship hit another ship. If we went to a really sophisticated analysis system, we would have to think about missed shots, particularly if there are many potential targets close abeam - as in harbor. As once happened in a famous Fletcher Pratt game in a New York gymnasium (a housewife beat a real navy captain of destroyers) our high school boys came off looking very good indeed - they made not a single operational mistake in the days and hours leading up to the tactical battle - and all we had to do was give their ships players to work out what happened. Designed to win a decisive naval battle at sea - it looks to me like the one place the Japanese torpedo was truly decisive was in port.



If I recall correctly, didn't the Japanese actually modify their Type 91 Torpedos so that they could use them at PH? I seem to remember something about them adding some type of fins to prevent them from diving as deep once released, cause that was the only way a torpedo was going to work in water as shallow as a port.


_____________________________

Distant Worlds Fan

'When in doubt...attack!'

(in reply to el cid again)
Post #: 600
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