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RE: Developments - 2/10/2010 9:37:01 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've seen the file now.  Here's the skinny:

Allied ship losses:  BB Mississippi, 1 DD, 5 AM, 2 ML, 1 AR, 1 AG, 1 AGP, 3 CM, 6 xAK, 1 xAP, 1 SS, 2 AMc, 1 AVP, 1 AD.  I was surprised that Mississippi went down, because she only showed "fires" and no "heavy damage" reports.  There are additional damaged ships, but I doubt any of these will go under barring further attacks.  The impact on Allied ability to transport troops is negligible.

Japanese aircraft losses:  524 shown on the loss table - 262 a-2-a, 190 flak, 72 ops.  Not all of these occurred at Darwin - the Allies had two big bombing raids (Lautem and Rangoon) which cost the Japanese some fighters - probably 20 to 30.

Allied aircraft losses:  191 for the day.  Many of these were involved in the raids on Lautem and Rangoon. For instance, at least 60 aircraft were models only involved at Lautem and Rangoon (like Wellingtons, P-38Gs, B-17s, and Liberator IIs).  Of the 64 P-40Ks downed over the two-day turn, I don't know what proportion were downed at Rangoon as opposed to Darwin.  In total I probably lost about 50 to 75 aircraft at Darwin.

Tactical Effect:  Miller put it this way in his email:   "Well I cant disguise the fact the last turn was bad for me, I took the risk and lost. Back to the drawing board."  With the loss of Mississippi and the other ships I think it's closer to a draw.

Strategic Effect:  Decisive Allied victory.  At a time when the arrival of Allied carrier is going into overdrive, the Japanese just seriously weakened their own carrier power for several months.  Near term, this should result in the loss of Tarawa - Allied ships are already loading and/or heading to rendezvous points for that invasion.  The Japanese will continue to have a strong surface combat and LBA presence in the DEI, so I doubt I'll be able to take too much liberty here, but not facing the prospect of the combination of LBA and carrier-based air will be a big help.  This should move up the Allied invasion of Babo.

Chickenboy:  You said something like you were waiting for something like this at Darwin.  Since Miller doesn't have an AAR going, what would've tipped you off?   

Miller's Rationale:  I had wondered what Miller was thinking with the massive build-up at Darwin and vicinity.  I had been sitting there doing very little other than building, building, building for months.  I wondered whether this  might not create pressure to "do something."  Yes, this was tactically a draw with both sides taking solid licks, but there's no question which side came out in a better position to prosecute the war.




I don't see the harm in telling you that Miller's "Japanese industry" thread on the forum was not so much about Japanese Industry as about soliciting comments re: a full IJNAF strike on Darwin. A number of 'regulars' from this thread posted there (very carefully, I might add) that we could not really comment further, but were anxious to see the results and hear his perspective after the event. His announcement of his intentions was a surprise to me (a rather ballsy move, if I may say so)-there was nothing you did to show your hand or tip off your force disposition and invite this attack that I can detect. I'm constantly impressed that readers of sensitive material on AARs keep their mouths closed and let events transpire.

What a blood bath! 524 Japanese planes in a day is quite the airborne abatoir. Yeesh. If you can keep the pressure on now, it will be very difficult for him to replace these losses, regardless of how good his pilot training program is. You wanted attrition? Attrition you got.

I used to enjoy Pat Summerall and John Madden call football games as an announcer team. Mostly, they were past their prime the last decade or so. One thing that Summerall said stuck with me though. In reference to a player with 'potential', Summerall quipped that "potential just means you haven't done anything yet." Very true.

The table is set for a war of attrition. The potential is there for you-over the next 4 months-to break the IJNAF and IJAAF and keep them broken. Now you've gotta go get 'em and keep up the pressure.

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Post #: 931
RE: Developments - 2/10/2010 9:51:57 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Oliver Heindorf
can you upload a screenshot "plane losses today" please ?


Here you go:




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 932
RE: Developments - 2/11/2010 3:21:42 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		7/16/43 and 7/17/43
 
Now is the time for the Allies to implement a dash of deception and a pinch of substance.

SoPac:  The Tarawa-bound amphibious TFs at Pago Pago are loading and will soon head north to rendezvous with the "north compoment" on the way from the West Coast (carrying an Army division) and Palmyra (carrying a Marine regiment).  The CVEs left Wellington and Auckland and will join the transports enroute.  It is unlikely that Miller would send the KB to Tarawa after the recent action in the DEI, but I will try to keep him focused on the DEI.

SWPac:  I want to give the appearance of a move on Lautem while the actual move is made on the base of Babo on the New Guinea coast:  (1) bombers will hit Lautem and Ambon while a large, mock transport TF leaves Darwin and heads toward Lautem.  I'm pretty sure Miller has been looking for this for months, so this should feed his expectations.  Meanwhile, recon of Babo, Boela, and Sorong begins tomorrow.  If Babo looks open, I'll drop Marine paratroops.  An amphibios TF leaves Darwin tonight and should be between Kai-eilenden and Kaimana tomorrow - close enough to permit troops to hit Babo the following two-day turn.  I believe this activity will be sufficient to focus Miller's attention here while the Tarawa invasion nears.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 933
RE: Developments - 2/11/2010 5:00:14 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
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From: La Salle, Colorado
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Oliver Heindorf
can you upload a screenshot "plane losses today" please ?


Here you go:






Damn...this is BAD. Even with Fog of War there can be no doubt as to his losses being severe.

NOT a good move on his part. Had he reconned the base to know the large number of Fighters you had there?

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Post #: 934
RE: Developments - 2/11/2010 5:04:04 PM   
Canoerebel


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Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		He's had patrol aircraft and recon all over the area for awhile, but he never actually tested the CAP and probably didn't to prevent me from becoming suspicious.  In effect, he was rolling the dice.  Gutsy move and it worked in some ways, but the cost was too high for him.  In addition to the fighters at Darwin, those based at Bathhurst Island and Fenton are close enough to offer support.

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Post #: 935
RE: Developments - 2/11/2010 5:36:03 PM   
LoBaron


Posts: 4776
Joined: 1/26/2003
From: Vienna, Austria
Status: offline 		I´ve also seen Millers post, from a Japanese perspective It was also a good plan. He had to slow
your move to the DEI´s and he chose the time where success was at least still high enough. 

In fact this was the true success of operation Port Royale.
It forced him to do something he didn´t have time to prepare for because he had to counter in the Kuriles.

Sometimes we tend to forget that besides being vulnerable in the Pacific the Japanese Empire has a very weak
stomach if punched from the right direction...

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Post #: 936
RE: Developments - 2/11/2010 7:29:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/18/43 to 7/23/43
 
SWPac:  The move on Babo went off like clockwork.  The Marine 'chutes battalion took the unoccupied base on the first turn and the transport convoy arrived on the second turn. I'm allowing the transports two days to unload and then I'm pulling them out - this is a forward position ripe for interdiction by Yamato and friends.  I'm not too worried about a counter-invasion.  The fact that the base was unoccupied suggests that Miller wasn't too concerned about it.  But it can be built to 4 port, 5 airfield and will play a big role in the eventual moves on Boela, Sorong, Manikawari, and Morotai.

Burma:  Allied fighters flying sweep over Rangoon are getting roughed up.

China:  The Chinese have evacuated Kweilin in good order.

SoPac:  All ships assigned to the Tarawa invasion have departed the various ports.  D-Day is probably four or five days off.

Allied Carriers:  CV Constellation has arrived joining CV Bunker Hill and CVL Belleau Wood at Balboa.  When Constitution arrives next week all of these carriers will head to Auckland.  CVLs Princeton and Independence are southeast of Pearl Harbor and will linger well south of Tarawa during the invasion (only CVEs - seven or eight of them - will be placed in harm's way).

(in reply to LoBaron)
Post #: 937
RE: Developments - 2/11/2010 8:21:19 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

7/18/43 to 7/23/43
 
SWPac:  The move on Babo went off like clockwork.  The Marine 'chutes battalion took the unoccupied base on the first turn and the transport convoy arrived on the second turn. I'm allowing the transports two days to unload and then I'm pulling them out - this is a forward position ripe for interdiction by Yamato and friends.  I'm not too worried about a counter-invasion.  The fact that the base was unoccupied suggests that Miller wasn't too concerned about it.  But it can be built to 4 port, 5 airfield and will play a big role in the eventual moves on Boela, Sorong, Manikawari, and Morotai.

Burma:  Allied fighters flying sweep over Rangoon are getting roughed up.

China:  The Chinese have evacuated Kweilin in good order.

SoPac:  All ships assigned to the Tarawa invasion have departed the various ports.  D-Day is probably four or five days off.

Allied Carriers:  CV Constellation has arrived joining CV Bunker Hill and CVL Belleau Wood at Balboa.  When Constitution arrives next week all of these carriers will head to Auckland.  CVLs Princeton and Independence are southeast of Pearl Harbor and will linger well south of Tarawa during the invasion (only CVEs - seven or eight of them - will be placed in harm's way).

Nice moves in the DEI, Canoerebel.

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Post #: 938
RE: Developments - 2/11/2010 8:24:25 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
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Status: offline 		What are you doing with your non-CV assigned Navy and Marine squadrons?? If their use is not critical right now, I would max out the number of pilots and set them to 100% training for escort, NavT, or NavB. It may take close to two months before they get up to 70 experience, but you are going to need them as your carriers start to come on line in masse.  

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 939
RE: Developments - 2/11/2010 8:33:20 PM   
wpurdom

 

Posts: 476
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From: Decatur, GA, USA
Status: offline 		Regardless of the long-term effects on Miller's pilot pools and airframes, short-term this has to give you temporary openings in air coverage. Unless he in a position to pounce on your moves on the surface in night attacks, this is a time for you to make hay while the sun is shining. And in storyline terms, succesful operations are what you need to counter the blow to morale from all those ship losses. (If you go on the offensive after the big fight, you show your less than adoring public that you won the battle).

It's still possible, though unlikely to me, that Chickenboy's first assessment could be correct if you give him time to regroup. So we'll see just how ready you were to go on the offensive. Don't let him do to you, what Booby Lee did to Lincoln after Antietam.

< Message edited by wpurdom -- 2/11/2010 8:40:38 PM >

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Post #: 940
RE: Developments - 2/11/2010 8:36:35 PM   
Grotius


Posts: 5798
Joined: 10/18/2002
From: The Imperial Palace.
Status: offline 		Exciting game you have going, Canoerebel! And it's cool to see these later-war CVs in action. I'm looking forward to the tussle at Tarawa.

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Post #: 941
RE: Developments - 2/11/2010 8:51:52 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Some of my Navy and Marine squadrons are on frontline duty at the big bases ringing the northern periphery of Oz.  Those that aren't on the frontlines are training at 70% (fighters set to escort, bombers for naval strike).  I have no idea how to set training for Nav B and Nav C and Nav Q and UnNav L and SemiNavT and QuasiNav V and InnyNav S and OutyNav H etc. etc. etc. I really don't want to know.  I find the micromanagement of pilots tedious and a distraction/detraction from the strategic nature of the game [I understand that most players disagree].

Yes, Japan's loss of 500+ pilots creates a window of opportunity.  The Allies have already capitalized by pulling the trigger on the invasion of Babo (190 AV landed with lots of engineers and base force personnel).  Prior to the big air battle the date to implement this operation hadn't been set.  The second move will be to proceed with the invasion of Tarawa.  Assuming this turns out well it will help the Allies by knocking out the most forward Japanese bases that were supporting subs and threatening my supply line.  One the Tarawa invasion is complete, the transports and some troops will join the newly arrived carriers in moving to the DEI.  At that point I think the Allies will press pretty hard in the DEI.  But that's probably a good six weeks off and who knows how much strength the KB will have regained by then - probably alot.

Are you thinking, "Hmm, you need to strike faster!"  I can't move in the DEI until my carriers are in place and that would be at least four weeks anyhow.  Too, I need some time to build up the new base of Babo.  The main determinant on the speed of the Allied advance in the DEI is taking new bases and building them up before moving to the next base.  I've got Babo and once it's at about level three it'll be time to move on Boela or Sorong.

P-47s have just arrived at Adelaide - three squadrons.  Experience is low - in the 40s - so it'll take a few weeks to train them up and put them into the front lines.

Saumlaki's airfield just went to level six.  I transferred four B-24D1 squadrons there (the other two slots are held by fighters).  The Liberators will fly the first strike against Makassar.  So the "danger zone" for Japanese shipping just got pushed a bit further into the DEI.

(in reply to wpurdom)
Post #: 942
RE: Developments - 2/11/2010 9:20:34 PM   
Chickenboy


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Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Canoerebel, et. al.,

I was wondering if your Paramushiro / Oniwhatever invasions that triggered the Imperial homeguard reinforcements will serve to trigger Kamikazes on January 1, 1944? Does the early activation of Kamis only factor in where your forces are on January 1 or where they have been? Anyone know?

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Post #: 943
RE: Developments - 2/11/2010 9:20:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The situation in the eastern DEI as we near the end of July 1943.

The Allies have just taken Babo, a base on the western tip of New Guinea. It can be built up to level four port/level five airfield. Once improved to permit basing of 100 or 150 aircraft the Allies can move forward to either Boela or Sorong.

The other bases contained in the blue-lined perimter are shaping up nicely - especially Suamlaki (level six airfield on the way to eight) and Babar (level five on the way to seven).

Once the Allied carriers arrive in theater en masse it should be possible for the Allies to expedite the advance. The carriers will operate under an umbrella of protection provided by these air bases. It should be pretty difficult for the Japanese to penetrate the combined land/carrier CAP, yet Miller will be pretty desperate to impede/stop/contest what should be an inexorable, steady Allied advance. That's the game plan in a nutshell.

The main Allied air bases are at Ambon (this one is too close to the Allied air bases so Miller only uses it occasionally), Kendari, and Makassar.

Manikawari and Beola are lightly garrisoned. Sorong has four units but the airbase is still a zero.




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 944
RE: Developments - 2/11/2010 9:41:31 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Here's the map for Operation Griswoldville - the invasion of Tarawa.

Most of the troops transports just left Pago Pago. They've made just seven hexes and it's a pretty fair journey from PP to Tarawa, so D-Day may be a good week off. This group is carrying three Marine regiments, two Army regiments, artillery, engineers and base forces.

To the north, a TF carrying a Marine regiment is nearing the rendezvous point between Canton and Baker islands.

Further to the north, a TF carrying an Army division is well south of Pearl Harbor and should arrive at the rendezvous point on time.

Recon shows five units 25k strong at Tarawa. That's no pushover. But surely one division, four Marine regiments, and two Army regiments are sufficient. The Marines are mostly 100% prepped. The Army units will range from 50% to 80%.

Support will be provided by at least three fast BBs, one slow BB, and seven CVEs. Two CVLs are in the area if needed.




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 945
RE: Developments - 2/11/2010 9:44:31 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Canoerebel, et. al.,

I was wondering if your Paramushiro / Oniwhatever invasions that triggered the Imperial homeguard reinforcements will serve to trigger Kamikazes on January 1, 1944? Does the early activation of Kamis only factor in where your forces are on January 1 or where they have been? Anyone know?


Good question. I don't know the answer.

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Post #: 946
RE: Two-Day Attack on Pearl Harbor - 2/12/2010 6:15:26 AM   
morleron1225


Posts: 118
Joined: 12/29/2006
Status: offline 		Being a newbie to WiTP-AE (or the earlier WiTP for that matter) I'll definitely be hanging out here looking for hints on how to play the Allies. I'm currently playing against the Japanese AI in Scenario #2. This is my sixth try at it as I was using earlier attempts just to get the mechanics of this game down. Good luck!

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Post #: 947
RE: Two-Day Attack on Pearl Harbor - 2/12/2010 6:53:57 AM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
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From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		I believe the Kamikazes do come in due to that landing.  Will try to find it in my handbook.


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Post #: 948
RE: Two-Day Attack on Pearl Harbor - 2/12/2010 9:51:18 AM   
LoBaron


Posts: 4776
Joined: 1/26/2003
From: Vienna, Austria
Status: offline 		Canorebel however fast you move, now you have your war of attrition situation that the Allies need
to bring the Japanese to the brink of collapse.

Miller has no option to move back, hes probably right now setting a frantic perimeter defense at the
Timor - Kendari - Ambon triangle and he has to defend it with what he got.

I like the idea of a move to Sorong because it would give you another base to put pressure on the
DEI perimeter and could develop to a staging area in the direction of the Philipines.
Cutting off the DEI is probably as effective as conquering them so thats another new threat axis that
he would have to react to.

Wonder if it is an option to go straight for the Philipines and simply bypass the strongpoints Miller is right now
building up to protect his oilfields.

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Post #: 949
RE: Two-Day Attack on Pearl Harbor - 2/12/2010 1:39:18 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Before the Allied invasion of the Kuriles, the Allies had moved into the eastern DEI.  The Japanese reaction was violent and frantic.  It seemed to me that the Allies had caught the Japanese unawares down here.  Miller began a desperate effort to reinforce his major bases, especially on Timor and Kendari.  We also had some major clashes over the islands and he recaptured Taberfane and Aru Island.  SigInt showed he had 4th Division prepping for Saumlaki, but he never attempted a landing there.  4th Division ended up at Lautem.

The Allied invasion of the Kuriles threw Miller into another panic mode.  He righfully judged that the crisis there took precedence, so for three months all of his attention was focused in NoPac.  During that interval the Allies built up Saumlaki, recaptured Taberfane and Aru, and likewise took and built up Bathurst, Babar, Kai-eilenden and Kaimana.

Once Miller recaptured the Kuriles, he shifted his full attention to the DEI. The recent decisively bloody naval air attack on Darwin gave the Allies the chance to move forward and take Babo.

I think we have a situation in which Miller is perceiving a threat according to his evaluation of vulnerabilities, and has moved to garrison and protect according to his view.  That is - he thought Timor was the big threat, so he's really concentrated his defenses there.  Kendari, Ambon, and probably Macassar received similar treatment.  He's reacting to the threat of a direct move west toward Java - a reaction that is both understandable and prudent.

However, the Allies have no intention of moving against strong, well-fortified bases.  In a campaign similar in philosophy to the Allied island-hopping campaign in the war, the Allies intend to bypass strongpoints whenever there are attractive, lightly guarded alternatives.  In this case, the Allies can move on Sorong, Morotai, and a multitude of other small bases or dot hexes that can be "built large."

Rather than moving west from Darwin through Timor towards Java, the Allies will move across the northern Moluccas and Celebes.  From there they'll either hit Borneo or the Philippines.  I have a game plan from there, too, but I won't get into that now.

The Allies already have the troops parked at Darwin needed to sustain the drive forward at least through Borneo or the southern Philippines.  I'll have the combat ships and carriers in a month or two.  That's when the Allies begin to apply steady pressure.

The game will probably begin to resemble the "stand off" in the game between Q-Ball and Cuttlefish.  Both sides will have a large number of carriers plus many airfields.  Both sides will want to attack enemy carriers from the safety of haavy CAP provided by LBA.  Consequently, both sides will be dancing about looking for an advantage.

The wild card in the mix is Japanese subs.  They infest the DEI waters and have been brutal throughout the game.  I can just imagine losing several carriers in the confined DEI waters.  That could seriously affect the Allied position.

While the main focus of power will be the DEI, I intend to keep a "Mini-KB" force of CVEs in SoPac or CenPac.  At some point the Allies will move on bases like Wake Island and Marcus.

That's the grand Allied strategy for the remainder of 1943 and probably into early '44.

(in reply to LoBaron)
Post #: 950
RE: Two-Day Attack on Pearl Harbor - 2/12/2010 2:50:06 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		I like your thinking, Canoerebel-'strike emptiness with fullness'. Looking forward to the next year of your AAR.

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Post #: 951
Quick Question - 2/12/2010 5:30:52 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Quick question gents [filler/filler/filler/filler/filler/filler/filler/filler/filler/filler/filler]:

The Allies are approaching D-Day for the invaison of Tarawa.  I'm not anticipating heavy opposition from ships or aircraft.   I want this to be quick, but I'm having some doubts:

1)  The Japanese have 27,000 troops ashore.  I'm guessing the equivalent of a division.  The Allies have four Marine regiments, an Army division, and two Army regiments.  The doesn't sound like an overwhelming force to me.  What do you think?

2)  If there's a realistic prospect of getting bogged down, I may divert to some of the nearby islands - in effect bypassing Tarawa in favor of less tough objectives that could, in partnership with the Allied base at Tabiteaeu, isolate and nullify Tarawa.

Any thoughts?

P.S.  I don't want to get bogged down in a protracted campaign for Tarawa.  I have more important uses for my ships in the coming weeks.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 952
RE: Quick Question - 2/12/2010 6:58:25 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I think I've just answered my question.  I just scrolled through the TF carrying the Army division to Tarawa and made the unpleasant discovery that I loaded this as a transport rather than as an amphibious TF.  No way I would make a dumb mistake like that...but I did.  So I think I'll concentrate on Makin and perhaps another island and then move on.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 953
RE: Quick Question - 2/12/2010 9:00:29 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/24/43 to 7/29/43
 
CenPac:  I was already leaning heavily toward re-directing the Tarawa invasion when I found out my infantry division is transport-loaded rather than combat-loaded.  That made the decision easy.  I'm not sure I'm making the right decision - sudden changes made in haste are often recipes for disaster - but so be it.  My transports spent the past two days a single hex from Tarawa; my three-BB TF bombarded; and my CVEs took station a few hexes west.  But it's all a "juke" - in actuality three Marine regiments and one Army regiment plus some arty are going to hit nearby Makin.  I'm pretty sure it's lightly held - the port is still a level zero.  I had better be guessing right because my troops are prepped for Tarawa.  Another Army regiment is heading to vacant (and still Allied "owned") Abemama just south of Tarawa.  If things go well this will give the Allies three potential bases around Tarawa.  In reserve I'll have a Marine Regiment, Army division, and the base forces and engineers that will land once the coasts are clear.

SWPac:  I orchestrated a mock invasion TF targeting Lautem hoping that might be just a little extra incentive for Miller to stick here rather than going hunting at Tarawa.  Royal Sovereign TF hit the base as did bombers.  Miller is hastily reinforcing Sorong.  So be it -not anything I can do about it yet.  If he makes it too strong I'll bypass it.  The next target is Boela, which is lightly garrisoned - less than 10k troops.  It is close to Babo, Kaimana, and Kai-eilenden, so if Miller tries to reinforce I'll dispute his efforts.

Allied carriers: All reinforcements have arrived and are steaming toward SoPac.  Rendezvous point will probably be Auckland, where there is alot of fuel.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 954
RE: Developments - 2/12/2010 10:13:03 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Some of my Navy and Marine squadrons are on frontline duty at the big bases ringing the northern periphery of Oz.  Those that aren't on the P-47s have just arrived at Adelaide - three squadrons.  Experience is low - in the 40s - so it'll take a few weeks to train them up and put them into the front lines.

Saumlaki's airfield just went to level six.  I transferred four B-24D1 squadrons there (the other two slots are held by fighters).  The Liberators will fly the first strike against Makassar.  So the "danger zone" for Japanese shipping just got pushed a bit further into the DEI.



With a service rating of 1, great speed, armament, durability and a tremendous bomb load, I get the feeling that the P47 is going to be the AFB plane of choice. Better loved than the corsair.

I am anxious to see how the work for you.


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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 955
RE: Developments - 2/12/2010 10:15:43 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The situation in the eastern DEI as we near the end of July 1943.

The Allies have just taken Babo, a base on the western tip of New Guinea. It can be built up to level four port/level five airfield. Once improved to permit basing of 100 or 150 aircraft the Allies can move forward to either Boela or Sorong.

The other bases contained in the blue-lined perimter are shaping up nicely - especially Suamlaki (level six airfield on the way to eight) and Babar (level five on the way to seven).

Once the Allied carriers arrive in theater en masse it should be possible for the Allies to expedite the advance. The carriers will operate under an umbrella of protection provided by these air bases. It should be pretty difficult for the Japanese to penetrate the combined land/carrier CAP, yet Miller will be pretty desperate to impede/stop/contest what should be an inexorable, steady Allied advance. That's the game plan in a nutshell.

The main Allied air bases are at Ambon (this one is too close to the Allied air bases so Miller only uses it occasionally), Kendari, and Makassar.

Manikawari and Beola are lightly garrisoned. Sorong has four units but the airbase is still a zero.





The question is, is it better to go for Java or to continue to head for the Phillipines? In my long WITP campaign I went for the PI. After taking it, Java did not matter so much.

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I am the Holy Roman Emperor and am above grammar.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 956
RE: Developments - 2/12/2010 11:44:25 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		crsutton, in my WitP game with Miller I did the same - went from Timor to Moluccas to Celebes to Philippines to Formosa to Okinawa.

My observation that decisions on the fly are recipes for unhappiness was right on.  Things have gone a bit off track and I'm now trying to decide what exactly what I want to do.  The skinny:

1)  Troops landed at unoccupied Abemama (sp?) near Tarawa without incident.  This can be built to 4 port/5 airfield.  I'm going to land engineers and base force tomorrow.  This was good.

2)  An pre-landing bombardment caused some damage to the troops at Makin.  The amphibous landings encountered no shore guns (well, no ships were hit but there were the usual troop casualites).  The garrison is two Naval Guard units.  The Allies got badly disprupted in the landings and because of the auto-shock attacks.  The Japanese appear just as bad off.

3)  The covering CVEs got separated - one group of three moved to the south (don't know why, but I must've set something wrong).  The remainder put up a weak and ineffective CAP.  Japanese LBA sortied in moderate numbers (I think from Majuro).  Three CVEs took light to moderate damage.  I'm going to withdraw all CVEs and the bombardment TF (which will make another run at Tarawa on the way out to hopefully suppress LBA).  I'll cross my fingers and hope that my CVEs get away.

4)  I don't want auto-shock attacks tomorrow with troops already ashore badly disrupted.  So I'll withdraw the invasion fleet.  Once the troops ashore recover from disruption they may be strong enough to take the island.  There are plenty of supplies ashore.

5)  I'm sending the reserve Marine regiment and Army division on to Pago Pago.  From there they'll join the carriers making for Auckland and thence Darwin.  The sideshow here is over.  I'll build up Abemama (and Makin, if taken).  That with Tabiteaeu should be strong enough to neutralize Tarawa.

6)  It's time to move the carriers, combat ships, alot of transports, and a good number of troops to the DEI.

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 957
RE: Developments - 2/13/2010 6:15:49 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Here's a message that I sent to Miller that I hope accurately summarizes my views on the game to date.  I've been focusing so much on some of the problems that I probably haven't given adequate credit to him:

"This operation won't win me many prizes.  It's my Baker Island invasion on a larger scale. "The best operation I've put together thus far - Paramushiro/Onnekotan - didn't turn out well. "You've played a big part in the woes I've experienced.  You've played very well and have been particuarly adept at anticipating my moves.  "Part of my woes have also been due to certain glitches in the game, but none of them (except China) have been bad enough to stop the Allies.  You're the one that's stopping the Allies. "But the Allies will keep coming!" Indeed, despite Miller's good play and the various woes that have plagued me (China and the incredible number of ships lost to subs primarily), I'm still fairly satisfied with the Allied position in the game.  I believe the Allies are poised to move forward, though it's going to be tough and bloody. The biggest worry on my mind is the retreat from Makin.  I'm crossing my fingers in hopes the three damaged CVEs can make it.  They're still good for 12 mph.  They'll make the protection of Tabiteaeu in a day and a half if they don't get clobbered in the meantime.  If they make it that far they should be fine as LBA and four CVEs already at Tabiteaeu should provide sufficient CAP.  My main concern is Miller loading up Tarawa (aifield a level 3) with bombers.  It's already been hit and my bombardment TF will hit it again tonight in an effort to suppress Japanese LBA. The bombardment TF and the CVL Princeton/Independence TF are moving on to Pago Pago along with most of the transport TFs.  Once I disengage fully from Makin/Tarawa, the bulk of the Allied forces will move toward the DEI. DEI Objectives: 1)  Boela:  Defended by three units some 6k strong.  This base is so close to Allied bases that it will be tough or impossible for Miller to reinforce.  The Allies have 700 AV prepping for the base, so I don't expect much question about this campaign. 2)  Sorong:  Miller is reinforcing - current defense shows four units 10k strong.  The Allies have about 700 AV prepping and I may add more. 3)  Manikawari (on the north coast of New Guinea):  Lightly defended by one unit 1k strong.  I have three paratroop units prepping (2 USMC and one Aussie).  I may try to nab this by para assault. 4)  Morotai:  I've already begun prepping support troops, but haven't started with the ground units yet.  I think I'll devote the units pulling back from Makin/Tarawa (one Marine regiment, one Army division, plus others) to Morotai.  I won't move on this base until Boela and Sorong have been taken. Carriers to be committed to the DEI:  CVs Bunker Hill, Constitution, Constellation, Essex, Wasp, Saratoga and Victorious (the latter is scheduled for withdrawal in two months). CVLs Belleau Wood, Independence, and Princeton.  This is a powerful force, but is still outnumbered by the KB.  I'll have to operate within my LBA cover.  I'm also very, very concerned about Japanese subs. CVEs:  Because of the sub threat I am keeping the more fragile CVEs out in the Pacific.  The three damaged at Makin will need time in a shipyard assuming I extract them successfully.  I'll have six others in the short term, with reinforcements coming periodically.  

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/13/2010 6:16:05 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 958
RE: Developments - 2/13/2010 6:40:56 PM   
vettim89


Posts: 3615
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Toledo, Ohio
Status: offline 		I think this AAR and Q-Ball's AAR show that the Japanese must make a priority to defend the DEI. A sturdy defense in the CentPac and SoPac is obviously necessary but the Japanese can afford to trade land for time in those areas. They cannot do this in the DEI. THey have to protect this region or its game over. If I ever play the Japanese side I think I would follow the RL model of ignoring CHina. I would pull every unit I could out of there and Manchuko and send them south. A stout defense of Timor and points east is critical for Japanese long term survival

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 959
RE: Developments - 2/13/2010 6:48:39 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I agree with you Vettim.  There's lots of space in the Pacific, so the Japanese can afford to give ground.  Especially in late '42 and early '43 the Allies have to be cautious due to carrier disparity, so the Allies usually aren't going to hit a home run in the vast waters of the Pacific.

But the DEI is a different matter.  There are a vast number of bases and potential bases making it difficult for the Japanese to defend.  If he defends Lautem and Koepang and Ambon the Allied player can bypass those and build up equal or bigger bases nearby.  And to make things worse the DEI is the very vitals of Japan.  If Japan loses Baker Island, Tarawa, and even Kwajalein by early '43, big deal.  The Allies still have a long way to go to reach the vitals.  But if the Japanese lose Timor or Ceram by '43....OUCH!

If the Japanese player locks down the DEI, the Allied player can try New Guinea or the Solomons, because they too have alot of potential bases.  But they are much further from the Japanese vitals.

The Kuriles and Sikhalin Island are also critical due to proximity to the Home Islands, so they have to be adequately defended.

There's alot on the Japanese player's plate, but don't neglect the DEI or Kuriles while focusing on Tarawa, Kwajalein, Lunga and Port Moresby.

(in reply to vettim89)
Post #: 960
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