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RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 2:14:37 PM   
Nomad


Posts: 5905
Joined: 9/5/2001
From: West Yellowstone, Montana
Status: offline 		The dud rate for MK 13s at this date is 50%.

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Post #: 271
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 4:33:33 PM   
DanielAnsell

 

Posts: 128
Joined: 5/5/2006
From: United States
Status: offline 		Those results are very disturbing. Just started a PBEM, and it looks like the best plan might well be to keep all Allied CVs far, far away from anything resembling Japanese carrier air power till 1944 in AE.

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Post #: 272
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 4:53:14 PM   
Grfin Zeppelin


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Carny

Those results are very disturbing. Just started a PBEM, and it looks like the best plan might well be to keep all Allied CVs far, far away from anything resembling Japanese carrier air power till 1944 in AE.

Everyone who plays the Japanese against you will love you for that :)

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RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 5:18:06 PM   
herwin

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Carny

Those results are very disturbing. Just started a PBEM, and it looks like the best plan might well be to keep all Allied CVs far, far away from anything resembling Japanese carrier air power till 1944 in AE.


It was a war of attrition until late 1943. Live with it.

_____________________________

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"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

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Post #: 274
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 5:39:58 PM   
janh

 

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quote:

30


I guess this was a reasonable outcome, though bad fortune of war. It could as well have worked out the other way, if any of the 50 TB had scored hits. But so is war.

The bleed over feature to other TFs is a great addition though.

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Post #: 275
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 6:33:57 PM   
khyberbill


Posts: 1941
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quote:

Those results are very disturbing. Just started a PBEM, and it looks like the best plan might well be to keep all Allied CVs far, far away from anything resembling Japanese carrier air power till 1944 in AE.


That might be too conservative to win the war.

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Post #: 276
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 6:38:38 PM   
castor troy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: herwin


quote:

ORIGINAL: Carny

Those results are very disturbing. Just started a PBEM, and it looks like the best plan might well be to keep all Allied CVs far, far away from anything resembling Japanese carrier air power till 1944 in AE.


It was a war of attrition until late 1943. Live with it.


the question though is how the Allied actually attrited the Japanese when in real life there would be 100 SBDs achieving only 2 hits...

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RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 6:40:31 PM   
castor troy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: janh

quote:

30


I guess this was a reasonable outcome, though bad fortune of war. It could as well have worked out the other way, if any of the 50 TB had scored hits. But so is war.

The bleed over feature to other TFs is a great addition though.



for sure not reasonable, at least not relating to reality. I don´t want to make String´s victory smaller, excellent game play but the Allied hit rate was nothing but off if you want to get anywhere closer to reality. Such things would just not have happened if that number of bombers would scream down on IJN carriers. We´re not talking about idiots in flying junk but USN pilots in SBDs. And exactly those trashed the IJN carriers in the war. While doing this with far SMALLER numbers over the carriers.

Again, this is not critisizing String, just pointing out that it´s one of those very off results of a game that has nothing to do with reality.

< Message edited by castor troy -- 3/16/2010 6:41:36 PM >

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RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 7:00:15 PM   
Andy Mac

 

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Status: offline 		Cest la vie **** happens sometimes the greater the challenge the greater the glory

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Post #: 279
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 7:03:36 PM   
Andy Mac

 

Posts: 15222
Joined: 5/12/2004
From: Alexandria, Scotland
Status: offline 		Remember my plan worked perfectly as well.

I chose to do battle in 42 with KB, perfect positioning within 2 hexes so all my aircraft took part

150 bombers got through on a 1st strike.

Everything worked as planned but the hit rate was poor.

Next day my SBD's (orphans) with far less numbers sunk a CL DD TF

So I have to conclude it was just bad luck in which case there is no point getting irritated by it

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Post #: 280
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 7:12:33 PM   
Andy Mac

 

Posts: 15222
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From: Alexandria, Scotland
Status: offline 		I still have Formidable, Lexington, Enterprise and Wasp I will need to be very carefull with them from now on and will need to consider long and hard whether I send cariers back to the uK

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Post #: 281
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 8:01:49 PM   
Wirraway_Ace


Posts: 1400
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From: Austin / Brisbane
Status: offline 		Andy,

I had a very similiar experience; 80 SBDs got through the CAP--no hits--in a thunderstorm. Lost both Enterprise and Yorktown to his strikes. I found it frustrating as I had carefully employed all by CVs in raids to get them combat experience. They sank parked AKs just fine, but my best DB pilots could not hit any moving enemy combat ships in 4 consecutive strikes. The Lex air group then put 4 bombs out of 18 into a CA on the third day while escaping. Go figure.

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Post #: 282
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 8:31:08 PM   
Andy Mac

 

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Status: offline 		Yup well I will be back in 18months to make him pay !!!

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Post #: 283
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 8:49:17 PM   
Zigurat666


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wirraway_Ace

Andy,

I had a very similiar experience; 80 SBDs got through the CAP--no hits--in a thunderstorm. Lost both Enterprise and Yorktown to his strikes. I found it frustrating as I had carefully employed all by CVs in raids to get them combat experience. They sank parked AKs just fine, but my best DB pilots could not hit any moving enemy combat ships in 4 consecutive strikes. The Lex air group then put 4 bombs out of 18 into a CA on the third day while escaping. Go figure.



And I got that CA all fixed up for ya!!

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RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 8:51:48 PM   
wpurdom

 

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From: Decatur, GA, USA
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quote:

Such things would just not have happened if that number of bombers would scream down on IJN carriers. We´re not talking about idiots in flying junk but USN pilots in SBDs. And exactly those trashed the IJN carriers in the war. While doing this with far SMALLER numbers over the carriers.


I'm not sure that comment properly adjusts for thunderstorms weather. At Midway, for instance, one had perfect flying conditions.

The Japanese results are also quite poor compared to fair weather performance. At Midway, the Japanese sent a strike force of 18 Vals, 11 were shot down prior to release and the remaining 7 scored 3 hits. They sent 10 Kates, 4-5 were shot down prior to release and the remaining 5-6 got two torpedo hits. There seems to be a consensus that the other 3 CV's of Carrier divisions 1 & 2 could perform at similarly high levels (Akagi, Kaga, and Soryu)

In contrast, at Midway over 40 Devastators got no hits. The Dive bombers came in untouched without any fighter opposition on a sunny day. Many dive bombers were into their dives before Japanese AA could respond. I don't have Shattered Sword with me, so I will have to comment on the results later, but IIRC, the percentage of hits under ideal conditions was less than the Japanese percentage with all their planes getting shot up. Is morale affected in the midst of a strike by hits and teammates getting killed, I don't know.

I do not know what the game mechanics are on air strikes, but it makes sense that being hit by flak or an enemy fighter could affect accuracy, perhaps through morale adjustments. In the Battle of Fiji 13% of the USN 1st strike completed their mission undamaged, 68% of the Japanese flight did. Of course, I don't know what percentage of any strike was damaged after release of weapons. Thunderstorms may accentuate advantages in morale, experience and skill.

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RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 9:28:42 PM   
Wirraway_Ace


Posts: 1400
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zigurat666


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wirraway_Ace

Andy,

I had a very similiar experience; 80 SBDs got through the CAP--no hits--in a thunderstorm. Lost both Enterprise and Yorktown to his strikes. I found it frustrating as I had carefully employed all by CVs in raids to get them combat experience. They sank parked AKs just fine, but my best DB pilots could not hit any moving enemy combat ships in 4 consecutive strikes. The Lex air group then put 4 bombs out of 18 into a CA on the third day while escaping. Go figure.



And I got that CA all fixed up for ya!!

Stop bragging and get back to sending your turn

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Post #: 286
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 10:28:51 PM   
Jim D Burns


Posts: 4013
Joined: 2/25/2002
From: Salida, CA.
Status: offline 		Hi Andy,

I'm interested in knowing the experience ratings for you SBD pilots for low level naval attack (I assume dive bombers use that rating). Do you have an old save where you could post the SBD pilots exp. ratings in a screenshot for us? Just a couple CVs pilots would be enough, perhaps a side by side of the best overall squadron and the worst overall when it comes to pilots ratings?

I would greatly appreciate it if you could. It’s too late in your game of course, but I’m just starting a PBEM allied and desperately want to find any hopeful solution to this issue. It may be there is no hope, but I’m hopeful I can find a reason for hope. Else my game will be very dreary until 1944+.

Jim


< Message edited by Jim D Burns -- 3/16/2010 10:29:04 PM >

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RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 11:22:27 PM   
Andy Mac

 

Posts: 15222
Joined: 5/12/2004
From: Alexandria, Scotland
Status: offline 		Wpurdon do not trust that damaged is one for one an aircraft can be damaged more often than once - remember 150 bombers got through


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Post #: 288
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 11:23:42 PM   
Andy Mac

 

Posts: 15222
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Status: offline 		the is pretty much the average of all my Sqns

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Post #: 289
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/16/2010 11:24:19 PM   
Andy Mac

 

Posts: 15222
Joined: 5/12/2004
From: Alexandria, Scotland
Status: offline 		oops




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 290
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/17/2010 12:43:02 AM   
Jim D Burns


Posts: 4013
Joined: 2/25/2002
From: Salida, CA.
Status: offline 		Thanks for taking the time Andy.

Here’s the at start Hiryu pilots for their dive bomber squadron. While they do have a bit higher low naval rating overall, there’s isn’t a huge difference, so perhaps just the naval bomb rating is all that is used after all. Not good news for allied players.




I do note the 1000 SAP bomb has a 50 accuracy rating in the database (looking at scenario 1 database). While the 250kg SAP bomb has an accuracy rating of 26. A stark difference that would leave one to believe the results we saw should have been reversed as far as hits achieved.

Perhaps there is something amiss with accuracy ratings and the algorithm they use for how they’re applied via the combat code? I don’t know.

Jim




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 291
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/17/2010 12:49:16 AM   
Andy Mac

 

Posts: 15222
Joined: 5/12/2004
From: Alexandria, Scotland
Status: offline 		Or maybe I just got unlucky..

Next day 40 SBD's got 10 hits...


Morning Air attack on TF, near Suva at 132,160

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes


Allied aircraft
     P-38E Lightning x 3
     P-39D Airacobra x 9
     P-40B Warhawk x 6
     F4F-4 Wildcat x 16
     SBD-2 Dauntless x 17
     SBD-3 Dauntless x 26


Allied aircraft losses
     SBD-2 Dauntless: 1 damaged
     SBD-3 Dauntless: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
     CL Kuma, Bomb hits 3,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     DD Fuyo, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     DD Tadeshiwa, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     DD Karukaya, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     DD Yugao, Bomb hits 3,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     DD Uruyuke



Aircraft Attacking:
      8 x SBD-3 Dauntless releasing from 3000'
              Naval Attack:  1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb
     11 x SBD-2 Dauntless releasing from 4000'
              Naval Attack:  1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb
      2 x SBD-3 Dauntless releasing from 4000'
              Naval Attack:  1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb
      4 x SBD-3 Dauntless releasing from 2000'
              Naval Attack:  1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb
      2 x SBD-2 Dauntless releasing from 3000'
              Naval Attack:  1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb
      2 x SBD-3 Dauntless releasing from 2000'
              Naval Attack:  1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb
      2 x SBD-3 Dauntless releasing from 4000'
              Naval Attack:  1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb
      4 x SBD-3 Dauntless releasing from 4000'
              Naval Attack:  1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb
      4 x SBD-2 Dauntless releasing from 2000'
              Naval Attack:  1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb
      4 x SBD-3 Dauntless releasing from 3000'
              Naval Attack:  1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DD Fuyo
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CL Kuma
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DD Tadeshiwa

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Post #: 292
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/17/2010 12:59:06 AM   
Jim D Burns


Posts: 4013
Joined: 2/25/2002
From: Salida, CA.
Status: offline 		Yep, I just looked at your attacks again. I’m starting to think the 1k release height is the culprit. I note none of your bombers released at 1k while 40+ of his did on day one. Looks like 2k and above are almost guaranteed to miss, at least when trying to hit a CV.

I bet if you watch the replay on delay of 5 and note what planes of his actually hit, all or most of his hits your CVs suffered occurred from planes bombing at 1k.

Looks like die rolls are the culprit, no way I know of to force 1k releases.

Jim

Edit: If flak worked as historical, 1k releases would be almost suicidal.

< Message edited by Jim D Burns -- 3/17/2010 1:01:33 AM >

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RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/17/2010 1:52:00 AM   
wpurdom

 

Posts: 476
Joined: 10/27/2000
From: Decatur, GA, USA
Status: offline 		Admiral Spruance fought a 4 - 4 CV battle in 2/21/1942 in his AAR and got 25 hits with 104 SBDs and 7 Vindicators in decent weather and with fairly light fighter interference.

At Midway 46 SBD got about 9 hits in an unopposed attack.

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Post #: 294
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/17/2010 9:15:53 AM   
castor troy


Posts: 14330
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quote:

ORIGINAL: wpurdom

quote:

Such things would just not have happened if that number of bombers would scream down on IJN carriers. We´re not talking about idiots in flying junk but USN pilots in SBDs. And exactly those trashed the IJN carriers in the war. While doing this with far SMALLER numbers over the carriers.


I'm not sure that comment properly adjusts for thunderstorms weather. At Midway, for instance, one had perfect flying conditions.

The Japanese results are also quite poor compared to fair weather performance. At Midway, the Japanese sent a strike force of 18 Vals, 11 were shot down prior to release and the remaining 7 scored 3 hits. They sent 10 Kates, 4-5 were shot down prior to release and the remaining 5-6 got two torpedo hits. There seems to be a consensus that the other 3 CV's of Carrier divisions 1 & 2 could perform at similarly high levels (Akagi, Kaga, and Soryu)

In contrast, at Midway over 40 Devastators got no hits. The Dive bombers came in untouched without any fighter opposition on a sunny day. Many dive bombers were into their dives before Japanese AA could respond. I don't have Shattered Sword with me, so I will have to comment on the results later, but IIRC, the percentage of hits under ideal conditions was less than the Japanese percentage with all their planes getting shot up. Is morale affected in the midst of a strike by hits and teammates getting killed, I don't know.

I do not know what the game mechanics are on air strikes, but it makes sense that being hit by flak or an enemy fighter could affect accuracy, perhaps through morale adjustments. In the Battle of Fiji 13% of the USN 1st strike completed their mission undamaged, 68% of the Japanese flight did. Of course, I don't know what percentage of any strike was damaged after release of weapons. Thunderstorms may accentuate advantages in morale, experience and skill.




You noticed the weather during the IJN attack didn´t you? What goes for one side should go for the other side too, if not, something is off. And if not then it again should be the other side because the rugged USN bombers should definetely do BETTER in bad weather than their IJN counterparts IMO. If the Japanese get a mega attack in thunderstorms but the USN doesn´t then hey ho.

If the Japanese attack is reasonable then the USN attack is completely off. You can´t say on one side thunderstorms was the killer while on the other side it hardly had any effect.


Just as a reminder:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Kandavu Island at 129,167

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 60 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 84
B5N1 Kate x 53
B5N2 Kate x 183
D3A1 Val x 161



Allied aircraft
Martlet II x 15
F4F-3A Wildcat x 13
F4F-3 Wildcat x 14
F4F-4 Wildcat x 38


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 5 destroyed
B5N1 Kate: 4 destroyed, 7 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 10 destroyed, 39 damaged
D3A1 Val: 4 destroyed, 63 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Martlet II: 1 destroyed
F4F-3A Wildcat: 1 destroyed
F4F-3 Wildcat: 2 destroyed
F4F-4 Wildcat: 3 destroyed

Allied Ships
CA Vincennes, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CV Saratoga, Bomb hits 6, Torpedo hits 2, heavy damage
CA Louisville, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
CV Yorktown, Bomb hits 5, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
CA Chester, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
CL St. Louis, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA Pensacola, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Lamson
DD Case
CL Helena, Bomb hits 1
DD Vendetta
CL Trenton
DD Flusser
DD Clark
DD Shaw
CA Chicago, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires
DD Perkins
CL Raleigh
CL Nashville
DD Conyngham
DD Cushing, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
DD Preston
DD Porter
DD Dent




< Message edited by castor troy -- 3/17/2010 9:20:44 AM >

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RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/17/2010 9:18:07 AM   
castor troy


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From: Austria
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jim D Burns

Hi Andy,

I'm interested in knowing the experience ratings for you SBD pilots for low level naval attack (I assume dive bombers use that rating). Do you have an old save where you could post the SBD pilots exp. ratings in a screenshot for us? Just a couple CVs pilots would be enough, perhaps a side by side of the best overall squadron and the worst overall when it comes to pilots ratings?

I would greatly appreciate it if you could. It’s too late in your game of course, but I’m just starting a PBEM allied and desperately want to find any hopeful solution to this issue. It may be there is no hope, but I’m hopeful I can find a reason for hope. Else my game will be very dreary until 1944+.

Jim




DB crews need nav bomb skill AFAIK as this is what increases during an atack.

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Post #: 296
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/17/2010 1:48:00 PM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline 		"Weather in hex: Thunderstorms "

You know, I don't know how Gary modeled weather and what has been done to the model since.  But I do know Pacific/Asian thunderstorms.  They are the same as in the SW US.  You can have 12"/hr of rain falling with lightning going off like crazy on you and the guy across the street is dry.  Really.  I've crossed the street to get out of the rain.

IF the t-storms are modeled like that, and there is no reason they aren't, then likely when an attack happens there is a random roll to see IF there is a weather effect going on at that moment.  Maybe yes, maybe no.  60 miles is a LONG way for t-storms.  So I know in the Pacific, if you are having a t-storm and I'm even 5 miles away, I could be in sunny weather looking at the big, black cloud over you.

I bring this up, because if you are from Europe or Mid-west/East US, you don't see this. T-storms to you means rain over a fairly broad area intensifying towards the middle of the rain. To Pacific Isles, it doesn't at all. These are just singular, monster cloud bursts with bright sun inter-mixed, OR a line of monster clouds moving in one direction preceded and followed by perfect clear skies. You just have to see it ...

Just food for thought ...

< Message edited by PaxMondo -- 3/17/2010 1:52:26 PM >

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RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/17/2010 1:49:03 PM   
wpurdom

 

Posts: 476
Joined: 10/27/2000
From: Decatur, GA, USA
Status: offline 		There's been a lot of discussion of the results of the Battle of Fiji. Do you and String still have the saved game from before the battle? If so, would you be willing to exchange information on the bombing accuracy figures of your respective squadrons. (I'm talking about the single figure on the left). Enquiring minds want to know.

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Post #: 298
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/17/2010 2:32:31 PM   
Andy Mac

 

Posts: 15222
Joined: 5/12/2004
From: Alexandria, Scotland
Status: offline 		Yes I have it I will dig it out

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Post #: 299
RE: Battle of Fiji - 3/17/2010 3:33:12 PM   
wpurdom

 

Posts: 476
Joined: 10/27/2000
From: Decatur, GA, USA
Status: offline
quote:

Wpurdon do not trust that damaged is one for one an aircraft can be damaged more often than once - remember 150 bombers got through


I assume as a developer you're right about this. Let's try to do a rough re-estimate.

113 DB reported a hit/lost rate of 87%. Let's just assume that on average 43% of the targets are damaged (this is high for several reasons (such as lost planes can't be hit and planes already hit that are hit again don't lower the undamaged targets) but on the other side, some planes probably got damaged after release). Accordingly, this reestimates the undamaged planes as 51 out of 99.

In heavy cloud weather Andy got a 25% hit rate, similar to what Admiral Spruance got in his AAR. you do a similar re-estimate of his damaged planes (49 hits with 88 planes). (Also similar to the good-weather, unopposed hit rate at Midway, if you include near-misses which may have done significant damage). So what should happen in thunderstorms?

Let's look at the Japanese side. In heavy clouds the next day, after his pilots were tired and morale perhaps reduced by losses, String got a 56% (of undamaged planes) hit rate. - if you do a similar re-estimate of his damaged planes (49 hits with 88 planes). (If you allow for reduced number of hits by damaged planes, it's likely his real hit rate was about 50%). In his thunderstorm attack at the same time as yours, he got a hit rate of 20% of undamaged plane, about 1/3 of the cloud attack the next day.

Now let's go back and guess how many hits Andy should have gotten. In clear weather 51 planes should get 12.75 hits. 1/3 of that brings us down to 4 hits. 48 damaged planes attacked. If you guess a shot-up pilot reduces the chanes by 2/3, he should have gotten 1 more hit, if by half 2. So maybe he should have gotten 5, or at most 6 hits.

On the other hand, given how shot up his Albacores were, I think he was lucky to get 2 torpedo hits from them, and I don't think you should expect any USN torpedo hits.

So I suspect that Andy was unlucky - that he should have gotten about 6-8 hits and he only got 4.

Of course, the other implication of this, is that the Japanese pilots were twice as likely to hit as the American ones, or String was pretty lucky in both sets of attacks.

Final PS - or maybe getting all your squadron mates shot up rattles you (affecting morale) which lowered the hit rate in both Allied attacks vis-a-vis the IJN.

< Message edited by wpurdom -- 3/17/2010 4:24:52 PM >

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