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RE: When SLOCs go bad....

 
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RE: When SLOCs go bad.... - 5/17/2010 1:00:34 PM   
Galahad78

 

Posts: 386
Joined: 9/28/2009
Status: offline
Very interesting AAR Nemo, lots of things to learn 

One little and very low-level question about your interdiction of SLOCs. It also occurred to me to take note of enemy's search arcs (only against IA) but left the idea even before implementing it because of the sheer amount of work it represents. How did you manage to do it? Do you have an easier way to do it or am I doing something wrong (could perfectly be, I'm just a newbie )?

The battle you were refering, could it be the war against Nabis, or the Roman-Spartan war, as it is also known? When Flaminino assaulted the Spartan walls.

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 361
RE: When SLOCs go bad.... - 5/21/2010 5:51:18 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline
Galahad78: Well, it is pretty simple really... Just take a guess as to his search distance and begin moving subs towards his base ( have them in column formation (e.g. 4 subs, 1 right after the other ). When your first sub gets spotted you've found his search planes... Let them sit there for a couple of days and you'll get some consistency as to how "far back" he spots your sub column.

E.g. If your 1st sub is 11 hexes from his base and the first two subs routinely get spotted but the 3rd and 4th don't then that's a search arc in which the enemy player has limited his search range to 12 hexes.


That's phase 1.... Phase 2 is simply spreading those subs out laterally in pairs at the already determined search range ( 12 hexes- or whatever it might be in your game ) until such time as 1 of the subs is being routinely spotted while the other goes routinely unspotted.


Two simple steps and you have the search arc depth and breadth plotted.

Personally I wouldn't bother with this level of tactical complexity most of the time. I'm a big believer in focussing on the strategy and resting assured that the tactical stuff will take care of itself if the overall strategy is good but, on occasion, when trying to plot a truly razor's edge operation with no room for failure it can be necessary to get into the tactical complexities. At such times knowing precisely where your enemy is actually looking can be important. To counter anything like this I regularly enough change my patrol arcs and depths and, obviously, create gaps which aren't actually gaps.


February 25th Report:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Ketoi-jima at 134,48, Range 18,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Kuma
DD Yamagumo, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Minegumo
DD Samidare
DD Ayanami
DD Satsuki
DD Minazuki

Allied Ships
AMC Prince Robert, Shell hits 26, heavy fires, heavy damage

Interesting... He is using light surface TF patrols in the north. A good tactical answer to his current problem. My first airfield in the Kuriles is due to go live in a couple of days. Once that happens the fighters and light bombers will begin flowing into the area ensuring this front becomes more and more of a problem for the Japanese.



229 IJAAF and IJNAF fighters swept the skies over Palembang before 35 Betties went in on port attack missions. Unfortunately for Mike Palembang is a FlaK area and, as such, isn't an area I will commit fighters unless he actually amphibiously assaults the base.

The sweeps met no resistance but the 35 Betties committed were met with such a storm of FlAK that 17 of the 35 Betties were downed. Not bad for a passive defence. His failure to defend Kwajalein today and a nasty ambush of my Chinese Air Force I15s and I16s means that the 17 Betties were the only thing which gave me a positive exchange rate today.... I downed 24 Japanese planes in return for 10 of my own, including 4 PBYs on naval search.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Nanyang (85,45)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 37903 troops, 297 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1269

Defending force 12875 troops, 112 guns, 69 vehicles, Assault Value = 476

Allied adjusted assault: 1000

Japanese adjusted defense: 51

Allied assault odds: 19 to 1


Combat modifiers
Defender: op mode(-), leaders(-), preparation(-), experience(-)

Hmm, the wrong op mode. That has proved expensive for him... This division will be wrecked and rendered combat ineffective. I have some 2,000 AV available for offensive action in the area but may look at freeing up a little more in order to mount a spoiling attack.

Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
5591 casualties reported
Squads: 90 destroyed, 98 disabled
Non Combat: 127 destroyed, 69 disabled
Engineers: 8 destroyed, 21 disabled
Guns lost 18 (10 destroyed, 8 disabled)
Vehicles lost 29 (15 destroyed, 14 disabled)

Units retreated 1


Allied ground losses:
351 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 33 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 21 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled


Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
12th Chinese Corps
77th Chinese Corps
89th Chinese Corps
55th Chinese Corps
13th Chinese Corps
30th Chinese Corps
51st Chinese Corps
7th New Chinese Corps
Jingcha War Area
31st Group Army

Defending units:
15th Division



_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Galahad78)
Post #: 362
RE: When SLOCs go bad.... - 5/26/2010 12:37:21 AM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline
February 26th.

Another 9 Allied planes go down. Half to ops losses ( my Catalinas are particularly hard hit in this area but right now I need the recon over Singkawang and Singapore --- I can spot 27 IJA formations at Singkawang, several BBs and CAs and what are reported as AOs, TKs and even CVs there... I have to believe that Singkawang will be the base he's going to hit Java from ---- ) and the other half to the odd fighter interception here and there are I LRCAP likely IJA bomber targets over China.

In other news my FlAK traps continue to work well. He hit two of them today and lost a total of 21 bombers to FlAK today. Over the entire day he lost just short of 30 planes and his losses in planes are now roughly 1,350 vs 1,310 of mine ( which includes 200 planes lost in the pretty disastrous CV battle with mini-KB ).


I am finding Roi-Namur massively overburdened with troops ( some 12,000 troops are there vs the 6,000 allowed ) and supply spoilage is massive. Accordingly I am beginning to route reinforcement convoys to Kusaie Island ( which does not yet have a Level 1 port and thus can only take amphibious TFs --- and most of my reinforcement TFs are transport TFs ) and even Ponape Island... Ponape is open to rapid interdiction by the Japanese but to forestall that I'm going to begin basing significant fighter forces there... This starts today with the basing of just under 100 P-40s and my only squadon of P38s there. A good surface bombardment would destroy the airfield but that's why I have ever DM I have in service on the way there, backed by ACMs in order to create the thickest minefields I can as a barrier - Ponape also has some CD units and so isn't utterly defenceless. Lastly, if he does bombard well, I'll only lose P40Bs and those are obsolete anyways... I'm using them up so that when the squadrons are down to a single plane each I can fly them out to a backwater and use them for 100% pilot training.

Elsewhere the US CLs have made good their escape from Japanese waters and are proceeding to Australia where they will link up with the Royal Navy and beef up its CL strength.... In the meantime most of the USN is in Pearl Harbour getting repaired and upgraded as necessary. As my ships finish upgrading they are forming into TFs and making for Darwin or the Marshalls as that is where I expect the next major battles to be --- well, a CL TF will make for the Kuriles as I want to sink the IJN CL TF there.

In other news another Australian Division is almost unloaded at Oosthaven. This division is to garrison Benkoenen and ensure that that port has a garrison of 500 AV - more than enough to hold against any end run by the Japanese forces.


That's it really. The Marshalls are now pretty secure, engineers, base forces and aviation support squads are flooding into the area. Marcus, Wake and Midway are all building up to Level 6 fortifications and are well stocked with supplies and CD units. The northern DEI (Sumatra ) is very strongly held now with Level 5 forts in Oosthaven and Palembang and 3 Level 5 airfields in Sumatra ( perfect for basing B-17s ) while a large influx of Australian forces into the Southern DEI ( Kendari/Ambon/Makassar ) is ongoing and pretty soon each of those bases will have 400 or so AV situated in defensive positions and building more forts every day. I think Manilla has tied him up long enough to allow my forces to filter into their southern DEI positions.

He's definitely beginning to move though as today saw over 200 fighters flying sweeps over Sumatra... Fortunately he still hasn't spotted my super-secret jungle lair and so that base hasn't been swept yet. It can only be a matter of time though so I've increased the CAP from 20% to 30% and am considering opposing him over Palembang just to give him a sense that he doesn't need to sweep elsewhere... I just have to give a bit more thought to that bluff first though.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 363
RE: When SLOCs go bad.... - 5/26/2010 8:28:01 PM   
Capt. Harlock


Posts: 5358
Joined: 9/15/2001
From: Los Angeles
Status: offline
quote:

I am finding Roi-Namur massively overburdened with troops ( some 12,000 troops are there vs the 6,000 allowed ) and supply spoilage is massive. Accordingly I am beginning to route reinforcement convoys to Kusaie Island ( which does not yet have a Level 1 port and thus can only take amphibious TFs --- and most of my reinforcement TFs are transport TFs ) and even Ponape Island... Ponape is open to rapid interdiction by the Japanese but to forestall that I'm going to begin basing significant fighter forces there... This starts today with the basing of just under 100 P-40s and my only squadon of P38s there. A good surface bombardment would destroy the airfield but that's why I have ever DM I have in service on the way there, backed by ACMs in order to create the thickest minefields I can as a barrier - Ponape also has some CD units and so isn't utterly defenceless. Lastly, if he does bombard well, I'll only lose P40Bs and those are obsolete anyways...


Your strategic tempo is impressive. It's not even March and you already have a squadron of P-38's, and consider P-40B's to be obsolete? How is the replacement of Buffaloes going?

_____________________________

Civil war? What does that mean? Is there any foreign war? Isn't every war fought between men, between brothers?

--Victor Hugo

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 364
RE: When SLOCs go bad.... - 6/10/2010 6:34:46 PM   
Nemo121


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Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline
Harlock,

Well, let's be honest, the P40B is pretty much obsolete from December 41. That I consider it obsolete doesn't mean it isn't still a front-line fighter - due to lack of choice. As to the P38... I found a single squadron I could bring out. This squadron has some 20 fighters and no replacements. It is nice to test the P38 in action and use it to draw Mike's attention but 20 planes aren't a big deal no matter how good they are. This thing will be decided by the clash of 800 or so fighters over the DEI by month's end.

Buffaloes: I still have Buffalo/ B-339D squadrons in action. Mostly they are flying night CAP missions over my bases but I've managed to get a Dutch ace flying B339Ds and several Dutch pilots with 3 and 4 kills. Over time though, hopefully, I'll get to upgrade the Dutch pilots a little to Hurricanes and P40s.



3rd mARCH 42.

Some interesting developments... I tried to run an intercept on his mini-KB around the Kuriles and managed to get a good, solid hit on his CVL TF with my SC TF managing to engage it on 4 separate occasions throughout the night. Unfortunately I only scored a single hit on a CVL.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Onnekotan-jima at 137,50, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CVL Ryujo
CVL Zuiho, Shell hits 1
DD Mutsuki, Shell hits 2, on fire

Allied Ships
DD Helm
DD Henley
DD Patterson
DD Gridley, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD McCall, Shell hits 3, heavy fires.

( I amn't showing the other three intercepts but suffice it to say Mutsuki ended up sunk but the two CVLs got away. )


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Babeldaob at 91,96, Range 5,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
PB Gamitsu Maru #1, Shell hits 7, and is sunk
PB Nichi Maru #1, Shell hits 12, and is sunk
PB Showa Maru #3, Shell hits 4, and is sunk
PB Showa Maru #5, Shell hits 6, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CL Phoenix
DD Benham
DD Ellet

I wanted to transit another CL into the DEI as I was a little short of CLs for my liking. I had the option of running it safely from Roi-Namur to Noumea, Brisbane and then up along the coast of Oz before moving north into the DEI from Darwin OR just pegging it across from Wake through the IJN SLOCs before hitting his shipping around Badeldoab. I, obviously, chose the latter option.

1st combat - 4 enemy PBs sunk 46 miles north of Badeldoab.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Babeldaob at 91,96, Range 14,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
PB Edo Maru, Shell hits 22, and is sunk
PB Kure Maru #5, Shell hits 9, and is sunk
PB Myoken Maru, Shell hits 16, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CL Phoenix
DD Benham
DD Ellet

2nd combat - 3 more PBs sunk.


McCall got sunk by IJN Kates as it was too heavily damaged by enemy fire from Mutsuki to actually escape. Still over the course of the day I killed 1 DD and 7 PBs and lost a single DD. Fair trade.


In other news Shimushiri Jima fell ( only after I'd evacuated cadres though ) after the IJA committed some 400 AV to the battle - 400 AV who won't be invading the DEI, sweet.

Manilla also fell today. Damned supply bug *sigh*. Still, it held long enough that I managed to begin getting significant reinforcements into the Southern DEI. Still, it would have been better for it to hold out another month, as I'm sure it could have if there had been no supply bug.



_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Capt. Harlock)
Post #: 365
RE: When SLOCs go bad.... - 6/10/2010 8:32:20 PM   
Capt. Harlock


Posts: 5358
Joined: 9/15/2001
From: Los Angeles
Status: offline
quote:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Onnekotan-jima at 137,50, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CVL Ryujo
CVL Zuiho, Shell hits 1
DD Mutsuki, Shell hits 2, on fire

Allied Ships
DD Helm
DD Henley
DD Patterson
DD Gridley, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD McCall, Shell hits 3, heavy fires.


Three shell hits to five, and only one DD on the Japanese side. Well, I suppose any night time action where the IJN fails to get a long lance hit is a good thing!

_____________________________

Civil war? What does that mean? Is there any foreign war? Isn't every war fought between men, between brothers?

--Victor Hugo

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 366
RE: When SLOCs go bad.... - 6/18/2010 7:02:08 PM   
wpurdom

 

Posts: 476
Joined: 10/27/2000
From: Decatur, GA, USA
Status: offline
Is the game inactive or just the AAR?

(in reply to Capt. Harlock)
Post #: 367
RE: When SLOCs go bad.... - 6/19/2010 8:05:48 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline
Aye it is still going. It just isn't really my style to post when little is happening. Basically he has reinvaded and taken one of the islands of the kuriles, using 500av to do so so he won't have them available for java, I've consolidated my hold on the marshals and I've continued running ships into java etc to help when the main battle hits - lots of ARs ADs and AGs in that area now as well as 6 BBs and a commensurate number of DDs and CLs. Few CAs though.

Just yesterday I spotted KB split between Truk and the southern DEI so soon we should see something.. I've put 70 first-line allied fighters up this turn over Balikpapan and am beginning to rotate the B17s into place.. In a week or so we'll probably see some major action if he heads for Java. If he's just going for southern Borneo then I'll happily let him waste time there as I continue to build up the RN base west of Java and ship in the planes etc necessary to defend it.

In other news another division of troops was able to sneak into Sumatra over the last week.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to wpurdom)
Post #: 368
RE: When SLOCs go bad.... - 6/20/2010 6:14:56 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Mar 06, 42

Well Mike has 3 CV TFs at sea, one in the Kuriles ( 2 to 3 CVLs ) supporting his operations there, another operating around Truk ( spotted a couple of days ago and may just comprise some CVLs/CVEs ) and what I think is KB is operating just south of southern Borneo. I thought it might attack Balikpapan today but no dice on that. Instead a couple of enemy Daitai tried to sweep Ponape to help the IJNAF torpedo bombers get at the 2 BBs I have guarding the unloading of my transports there... big, big mistake. I ate his Zeroes alive. Honestly, whoever is finding it difficult to get good exchange rates vs Zeroes really needs to look at their play, today I killed 12 Zeroes and 3 Oscars in the air over Ponape out of a force of 12 Zeroes and 3 Oscars. In return I lost 2 P40Bs to A2A combat and one P38 on landing. So, that's a 5:1 exchange rate in A2A combat.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 20 encounters mine field at Bataan (78,77)

Japanese Ships
DMS Teiko
DMS W-20

52 mines cleared

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Singkawang at 56,88

Japanese Ships
PB Teibo Maru #2

Allied Ships
SS O16

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Singkawang at 56,88

Japanese Ships
DD Tatsuyuke

Allied Ships
SS O16, hits 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 20 encounters mine field at Bataan (78,77)

Japanese Ships
DMS Teiko
DMS W-20

44 mines cleared

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Hengchun at 85,68

Japanese Ships
DD Tachikaze
DD Harukaze
DD Hatakaze

Allied Ships
SS Spearfish

As you can see my subs are very much back in action again but the poor torpedoes are really hindering them.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 454 encounters mine field at Truk (112,108)

Allied Ships
SS Pompano, Mine hits 1, on fire

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Shimushiri-jima at 132,51

Japanese Ships
xAK Tempei Maru, Shell hits 2, on fire

Allied Ships
SS Trigger, hits 2

Trigger fired three entire volleys of torpedoes at Tempei, got 3 torpedo hits and not a single one exploded. *sigh* In time this'll improve. For now I'll just endure.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 201st(Sep) Infantry Regiment, at 136,48 (Onnekotan-jima)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 48 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 16 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 3 damaged


Allied ground losses:
42 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Onnekotan Jima is definitely next on his hit list... A major error, he needs Palembang and Java NOW. Every delay is letting me bring more and more in. I just counted my forces in Sumatra today and have a total of 5,000 AV on the island. I just don't see him taking that away from me, especially since I have Level 5 and 6 forts and CD guns to hide behind.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Ponape , at 119,113

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 42,500 feet.
Estimated time to target is 27 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 3

Allied aircraft
P-38E Lightning x 6
P-40B Warhawk x 28
F2A-3 Buffalo x 1
F4F-3A Wildcat x 2


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-Ic Oscar: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-40B Warhawk: 1 destroyed

In reality all three Oscars were downed for just a single P40B.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Kwajalein Island , at 132,115

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes


Allied aircraft
A-20A Havoc x 3
F4F-3A Wildcat x 3
F4F-3 Wildcat x 3


Allied aircraft losses
A-20A Havoc: 1 damaged



Runway hits 5

Just trying to keep Kwajalein a little suppressed and to maintain the fiction that I am keeping B17s and other bombers at Roi Namur.... In reality they are all shuttling to the DEI for the coming battle there.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Ponape , at 119,113

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 38,810 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 2

Allied aircraft
P-38E Lightning x 5
P-40B Warhawk x 24
F2A-3 Buffalo x 1
F4F-3A Wildcat x 1


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed

Both Zeroes were destroyed by the P40Bs.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Singkawang at 56,88

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 26 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 29



Allied aircraft
Blenheim IV x 9
B-17D Fortress x 4
B-17E Fortress x 6


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Blenheim IV: 2 destroyed, 1 damaged

I actually lost 2 Blenheims here.... I had set my bombers to training 100% but had actually set them to Naval Attack, train 100% so a few decided to take off and attack. If you want 100% training then your primary mission MUST be training. Oops!!! Only cost me the 5 Blenheims though so that's not too bad.


Japanese Ships
BB Haruna
xAK Shinyubari Maru
DD Urakaze
DD Tanikaze


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Singkawang at 56,88

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 37 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 12



Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 6


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 3 damaged

Japanese Ships
BB Kongo


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Singkawang at 56,88

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 48 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes


Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 6


Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
xAK Hankow Maru

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Singkawang at 56,88

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 41 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes


Allied aircraft
Blenheim IV x 12


No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
xAK Kasagi Maru
xAK Taikei Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
xAK Kamoi Maru

The B17s appear to have damaged so many fighters that the Blenheims were able to sneak through without being engaged. A lucky break but one which fits with my proposed strike plan to the landing beaches when he comes for Sumatra - send the B17s in first to break the enemy CAP and then have all my more fragile bombers follow up while the enemy CAP is massively depleted.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Singkawang at 56,88

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 49 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 16 minutes


Allied aircraft
DB-3M x 3


No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
xAK Tonan Maru

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Ponape , at 119,113

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 24 NM, estimated altitude 33,810 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 16



Allied aircraft
P-38E Lightning x 5
P-40B Warhawk x 24
F2A-3 Buffalo x 1
F4F-3A Wildcat x 1


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 3 destroyed

10 Zeroes destroyed in return for a P40B. A few more were damaged and might go down on the way home. Either way it is a Daitai of Zeroes which has been pretty much wiped out.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Singkawang at 56,88

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 30 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 18



Allied aircraft
B-17D Fortress x 3
B-17E Fortress x 3


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-17D Fortress: 2 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
BB Haruna
xAK Shinyubari Maru

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Singkawang at 56,88

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 49 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes


Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 6


Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
xAK Yamahagi Maru
xAK Senko Maru

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 1st Indian Light AA Regiment, at 57,56

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 21 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 20



Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 2 damaged


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Singapore at 50,84

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 28 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 13
Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 5



Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 4


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
DD Asashio

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Singkawang at 56,88

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 42 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes


Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 2


No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
CA Atago

I removed a lot of IJAAF and IJNAF air attacks on my ground troops in Burma and China as they aren't really decisive attacks.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 86,41

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 7546 troops, 543 guns, 478 vehicles, Assault Value = 2421

Defending force 139146 troops, 1124 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 4283

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 16 (4 destroyed, 12 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
311 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)


Assaulting units:
1st Engineer Regiment
9th Tank Regiment
28th Engineer Regiment
26th Recon Regiment
20th Recon Regiment
3rd NCPC Infantry Brigade
8th Recon Regiment
5th Armored Car Co
7th Ind.Mixed Brigade
27th Electric Engineer Regiment
3rd Tank Regiment
15th Tank Regiment
23rd Tank Regiment
37th Division
20th Engineer Regiment
1st Recon Regiment
8th Engineer Regiment
6th Ind.Mixed Brigade
9th Ind.Mixed Brigade
5th Tank Regiment
14th Division
4th NCPC Infantry Brigade
5th Army
Tonei Hvy Gun Regiment
8th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
11th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
12th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
1st Ind. Field Artillery Regiment
7th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
28th Mountain Gun Regiment
6th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
1st Army
15th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
24th Ind. Engineer Regiment
4th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
31st Road Const Co
13th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
22nd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
1st Field Artillery Regiment
10th Mortar Battalion
9th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Army
Kwantung Army
7th Ind. Engineer Regiment
2nd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
4th Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
1st Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
3rd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
26th Field Artillery Regiment
4th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
4th RF Gun Battalion
9th Ind. Engineer Regiment
40th Const Co
6th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
8th Mountain Gun Regiment

Defending units:
40th Chinese Corps
2nd Chinese Cavalry Corps
84th Chinese Corps
36th Chinese Corps
96th Chinese Corps
7th Chinese Corps
57th Chinese Corps
1st Chinese Corps
38th Chinese Corps
29th Chinese Corps
85th Chinese Corps
48th Chinese Corps
61st Chinese Corps
33rd Chinese Corps
3rd Chinese Corps
34th Chinese Corps
47th Chinese Corps
82nd Chinese Corps
80th Chinese Corps
76th Chinese Corps
98th Chinese Corps
1st War Area
8th War Area
1st Artillery Regiment
7th Group Army
22nd Artillery Regiment
8th Group Army
41st AA Regiment
7th Artillery Regiment
3rd Group Army
57th AT Gun Regiment
18th Artillery Regiment
3rd Heavy Mortar Regiment
20th Artillery Regiment
39th Group Army
2nd Group Army
24th Group Army
4th Heavy Mortar Regiment
21st Group Army
36th Group Army
Red Chinese Army
34th Group Army
4th Group Army
49th AA Regiment


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Changsha (82,52)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 2040 troops, 249 guns, 45 vehicles, Assault Value = 5089

Defending force 137632 troops, 786 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 4400

Japanese ground losses:
66 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 9 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
10 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Assaulting units:
9th Armored Car Co
11th RGC Temp. Division
116th Division
12th Division
34th Division
13th Division
6th Division
51st Infantry Brigade
40th Division
58th Infantry Regiment
23rd Division
10th Division
3rd Division
39th Division
10th Tank Regiment
13th Ind.Mixed Brigade
13th RGC Temp. Division
13th Tank Regiment
17th/A Division
2nd JAAF Base Force
2nd Ind. Engineer Regiment
51st Const Co
51st Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
2nd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
14th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
15th Ind.Medium Field Artillery Regiment
11th Army
51st Road Const Co
52nd Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
11th Field Artillery Regiment
1st Mortar Battalion
9th JAAF Base Force
10th Mortar Battalion
13th JAAF Base Force
8th Ind. Engineer Regiment
5th Ind.Hvy.Art Battalion
6th RF Gun Battalion
22nd Ind. Engineer Regiment
54th JAAF AF Bn

Defending units:
26th Chinese Corps
21st Chinese Corps
3rd New Chinese Corps
9th Prov Chinese Corps
10th Chinese Corps
70th Chinese Corps
20th Chinese Corps
78th Chinese Corps
28th Chinese Corps
4th Chinese Corps
6th Construction Regiment
99th Chinese Corps
37th Chinese Corps
74th Chinese Corps
72nd Chinese Corps
73rd Chinese Corps
58th Chinese Corps
100th Chinese Corps
5th Construction Regiment
3rd War Area
32nd Group Army
9th War Area
19th Group Army
27th Group Army
25th Group Army
17th Chinese Base Force
10th Group Army
29th Group Army
30th Group Army
56th AT Gun Regiment


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Polillo (81,78)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 1204 troops, 8 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 43

Defending force 0 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 40

Allied adjusted defense: 1

Japanese assault odds: 40 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Polillo !!!


Overall in the last 3 days the Japanese have lost 64 planes ( including 24 in the past day ). Today my forces lost 5 planes ( 2 Blenheims, 2 P40Bs and a P38 to ops ) and in the previous 2 days I'd lost a plane to ops losses. So, overall, just short of an 11:1 exchange rate over the past 3 days. Most of that is because I only accept combat when absolutely necessary and on my own terms and am relying on a lot of FlAK traps and ambushes to inflict really disproportionate losses.

In other news... Onnekotan Jima will fall soon enough, which is a pity, but my forces are really flowing into the southern DEI and Cocos Islands.


_____________________________

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Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 369
RE: When SLOCs go bad.... - 6/21/2010 4:45:45 AM   
Capt. Harlock


Posts: 5358
Joined: 9/15/2001
From: Los Angeles
Status: offline
quote:

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 24 NM, estimated altitude 33,810 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 16



Allied aircraft
P-38E Lightning x 5
P-40B Warhawk x 24
F2A-3 Buffalo x 1
F4F-3A Wildcat x 1


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 3 destroyed

10 Zeroes destroyed in return for a P40B. A few more were damaged and might go down on the way home. Either way it is a Daitai of Zeroes which has been pretty much wiped out.


It looks to me as though much of your success in A2A last turn was by far outnumbering the incoming fighters. This one, however, was different. I wonder if the weather had anything to do with it?

_____________________________

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(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 370
RE: When SLOCs go bad.... - 6/21/2010 5:10:12 AM   
bbbf

 

Posts: 493
Joined: 7/16/2000
From: Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Status: offline
5000 AV behind 5-6 level forts ina advantageous terrain!

He'll need just about everything available on the map to break that concentration. 

That's a bad miscalcualtion by him.

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Robert Lee

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Post #: 371
RE: When SLOCs go bad.... - 6/21/2010 7:56:18 AM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline
Harlock, no just pilot training and fighting over my own terrain with radar. Pilot training is really the key.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to bbbf)
Post #: 372
RE: When SLOCs go bad.... - 6/22/2010 7:29:07 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline
8th March 1942
Not too much happening, just shifting forces around, getting USN ships ready for action in the DEI, continuing further repairs, bringing squadrons into second-line positions ready to shift into front-line positions as the need arises and waiting for the next attack in the Kuriles. Mike appears to be busy clearing minefields from Bataan before sending shipping into Manilla to bring his troops out and into their forward bases ready for the next set of invasions.

The IJA made another attempt to break through east of Sian but got held with heavy losses, about 140 squads and 40 or so tankettes. MY forces suffered losses but they were relatively light given what was done to the IJA. My forces are all in the RED in terms of supply but I'm gambling that they can resupply overnight as I've ordered them to attack tomorrow. I'm gambling that the IJA won't recover much effectiveness and that my forces will be able to overcome the tripling of defensive power due to terrain whilst getting the supplies they need forward.

Even if I fail I should inflict a lot of casualties and that might make a meatgrinder here quite an attractive proposition. I believe also that if the attack fails ( which is likely ) I should still be able to fend off any immediate IJA riposte as the IJA won't be strong enough in 2 days time to successfully attack.

This is a HUGE risk but I think given the new ground combat system it is a risk which should yield, at worst, 1:1 exchanges ( which would be a major win for me ), improve my experience and give me something to draw forces north with ---- at which time something rather nasty might develop in the south --- well, it is already developing to be honest as I have two local offensives in the centre and have recaptured a city there already. Supplies are bedevilling these offensives but as they are spoiling offensives merely designed to disrupt the rail lines running from Changsha to Sian - in order to make it look like I'm trying to prevent reinforcements going north, bolstering the maskirovka that the action in the north is a major thrust on my part - their inability to push farther forward is no significant issue. I'll try to remember to provide a picture next turn if people are interested.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 86,41

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 67768 troops, 927 guns, 1380 vehicles, Assault Value = 2421

Defending force 139173 troops, 1122 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 4281

Japanese adjusted assault: 460

Allied adjusted defense: 8519

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 18

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
5670 casualties reported
Squads: 73 destroyed, 650 disabled
Non Combat: 60 destroyed, 740 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 123 disabled
Vehicles lost 271 (43 destroyed, 228 disabled)



Allied ground losses:
4922 casualties reported
Squads: 23 destroyed, 285 disabled
Non Combat: 13 destroyed, 313 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 18 disabled

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 373
RE: When SLOCs go bad.... - 6/23/2010 7:05:42 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline
Well, the gambit didn't quite work but I came close and, rather importantly, the attrition of the IJA was very significant. So was the attrition of Chinese forces but I believe that the attrition might just about favour my forces.

IJN submarines sank an Allied ship while I had 4 separate sub attacks resulting in 3 hits but no detonations of torpedoes. In the end though the 5th attack put a torpedo into a large AK bringing fuel into Singkawang ( which I think he is setting up as his forward base for the invasion of Java ). Once my sub torps begin working the IJN losses should rise massively. To be honest though I think that this game will be utterly decided by October 1942 so Allied torpedo power will only be an issue if Mike chooses to play on past that point in order to practice defensive tactics.

Now onto the main news of the day... China...

Firstly we need to look at CHangsha, context is, after all, supremely important.

Ground combat at Changsha (82,52)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 2010 troops, 248 guns, 45 vehicles, Assault Value = 5146

Defending force 138015 troops, 786 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 4433

Japanese ground losses:
35 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 7 (1 destroyed, 6 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
11 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Basically he is just bombarding but the fact that I deployed my 2nd echelon artillery reserve there en masse has helped turn those bombardments very much in China's favour. The key is that he has deployed over 5,000 AV along this axis --- and that I allowed him to do so without any hint that I'd seen them, all the while readying the central spoiling attack and northern counter-attack.

Now Mike has a major problem, at just the time that his forces in the north are coming under pressure he finds the rail line heading north has been cut and he's soon about to find local counter-attacks going in around the flanks of his main force at Changsha in the south - designed to mess with his mind as he begins freeing units from the front at Changsha and sending them to the north via either:
a) the central rail line - they'll have to fight to clear the rail line but will easily clear it as my forces have outrun their supplies.
b) a long move eastward to the rail lines north of Anking and from thence to Chengting etc.

He can deal with all three threats but he needs to apportion his forces quite finely. I'm not forcing errors but I'm certainly providing him with a situation in which only a finely judged apportionment of forces and routes will get the appropriate forces into each of the theatres in China ( Changsha, central and Sian ) in the appropriate numbers and times.

My assessment is that he'll make an error in the temporal apportionment and that'll give me a further opportunity to further complicate the strategic situation in China and provide him with more opportunities to make errors.



So, let's look at the outcome of the attacks.,..

Yesterday the IJA began the day with 2421 AV in the hex east of Sian. It lost 73 infantry and 5 engineer squads as well as 43 tanks. So that's 121 AV destroyed outright. Another 650+123+228 = 1001 AV were disabled. Given my knowledge of the AV calculations that would mean that I'd expect the unadjusted AV today to be 2421 - ( 121 + 0.5(1001) ) = 1800 AV.

Actual unadjusted AV was 1730. So, my guesstimate was right to within 70 points. With non-combat squads accounting for 0.1 AV per squad and 60 destroyed and 740 disabled that accounts for another 6 + 0.5(74) = 43 points. So counting in non-combat units my estimate would be right to within 27 points - not bad when we're talking a total loss of 691 or so...


Ground combat at 86,41

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 124332 troops, 1049 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 4056

Defending force 71489 troops, 936 guns, 1677 vehicles, Assault Value = 1730

Allied adjusted assault: 1539

Japanese adjusted defense: 2193

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+)
Attacker:


Japanese ground losses:
2565 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 56 disabled
Non Combat: 84 destroyed, 339 disabled
Engineers: 65 destroyed, 89 disabled
Vehicles lost 256 (26 destroyed, 230 disabled)



Allied ground losses:
5503 casualties reported
Squads: 55 destroyed, 405 disabled
Non Combat: 24 destroyed, 269 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 42 disabled
Guns lost 7 (2 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Very serious losses in terms of disabled Chinese forces on the first glance but when you look at it more deeply I've actually only lost squads ( 55+ 202) + non-combat ( 2.4 + 13.5 ) + engineers ( 21 ) AV = 294 AV... |So, a lot less than it looked at first. Let's look at what the IJA has lost....

Squads ( 3 + 28 ) + non-combat ( 8.4 +17 ) + engineers ( 65 + 45 ) + tanks ( 26 + 115 ) = 307.

So, both sides lost pretty much the same unadjusted AV. On the other hand my forces will have gained experience which will at least partially offset the losses. Projected IJA strength tomorrow = 1423 ( it'll be a bit more because they'll repair )

Overall though 2 days of combat have reduced them from 2400 AV to about 1400 AV. My guys should muster an unadjusted AV of about 3700. That means the actual combat ratio ( unadjusted ) will have shifted from about 1.66 : 1 in my favour 2 days ago to 2.5 : 1 in my favour today. That's a pretty significant, and promising, shift.

Conclusion: A little care to pick the right time to attack again along this axis and I could break through. I can't wait too long though as his forces will recover FAR more quickly than mine. Already in 2 days I've burnt through a fortnight's worth of infantry squad replacements. I don't analyse things for myself in this detail. I can see these patterns without running the numbers but I thought it was useful to run the numbers for readers who mightn't see the disparate attrition ratios hiding behind the data in the combat report. Reading the combat report is one thing, interpreting it is something else entirely. Reading yields almost no information, interpreting it is where the payoff is in AE. I normally don't point that out as I believe people should make those connections themselves but the recent discussion about the lack of utility of combat reports in AARs led me to the conclusion that perhaps people weren't seeing the implications inherent within the reports.

BTW, the fact that combat is no longer as much of an all or nothing affair and stands up to that more realistic analysis is a credit to the land warfare team. It makes much more sense and stands up to much more scrutiny now. Not perfect and still a bit too all or nothing but a huge improvement, especially given the code base.

If anyone has any questions etc please feel free to ask, some of this may not be that obvious and I'm hoping some may find it a little helpful... I don't know though maybe it is just obvious to everyone, I had pretty much thought it was until I read that thread about combat reports in AARs.


The picture below illustrates the situation in a simple manner.... Attack in the north, spoiling attacks in the centre to cut the easy lateral LOC to the north and a major IJA force in the south which is vulnerable to flanking and manouevre-based disruption.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 6/23/2010 7:11:23 PM >


_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 374
RE: When SLOCs go bad.... - 6/29/2010 8:28:01 PM   
SuluSea


Posts: 2358
Joined: 11/17/2006
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Nemo , what's the Palembang situation looking like ? I thought your defense plan of the area and the damage /delay it would cause the empire was brilliant.

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Post #: 375
RE: When SLOCs go bad.... - 6/30/2010 1:35:52 AM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline
Well Palembang currently has 1200 AV behind Level 5 forts ( on their way to Level 6 ) and in swamps. Prep levels are pretty much 100 across the board and experience levels are climbing to 50 as this preparation takes hold. Most importantly though the terrain has a x 3 modifier. So 1200 AV x 50% Exp x 2 for full preparation (+Corps and Army HQ Full prep ) x 3 for terrain x 2 for fortification bonuses = 7,200 adjusted AV. It won't get that high but it still shows how things get magnified. I've also got a 100% strength Aussie Division of 470 AV I'm thinking of adding in there to boost the defences. I gave them their ops mode order today. CD defences are only about a dozen guns but I do also have an additional 3 regiments of 25 pounder artillery which should help kill landing craft as well as lots of 2 pounders etc.


Oosthaven has 2000 AV + 24 x 6" CD guns for defence. It is also Level 5 but closer to Level 6 in terms of forts. Prep is again 100% and exp levels close to 50 as training takes hold. So, 2,000 x 2 for forts x 2 for prep x 0.5 for training = 4,000 AV Really for Oosthaven I'm relying on the CD guns and the intervention of the Royal Navy and USN to do a huge amount of damage to the landings so I need a lesser adjusted AV.


Benkoenen - Has some 600 AV ( including a full Oz division ) as well as some 6 inch CD guns and Level 3 forts. Benkoenen is weakly held since he can't really invade it unless he takes Java first so I should have a lot of time to bring reinforcements in there if needed. Basically Benkoenen will be my unloading base once Java falls.

Jahat (sic) just east of Benkoenen is my main reserve area with a Level 7 airfield, 700+ planes hiding in the jungle and 800 AV of armoured units in strategic mode ready to reinforce Oosthaven or Palembang within 2 days. Tanks are real IJA-killers too so having the equivalent of 2 armoured divisions on hand should really help me butcher IJA attacks.


In addition to that I have hellacious amounts of FlAK and artillery in each of these hexes. For example I've just delivered a British AAA Brigade to Oosthaven and that alone has something like 140 FlAK guns, many of them the excellent 3,7 inch FlAK gun.

Royal Navy forces in theatre now comprise 6 BBs, 2 CA, 12 CL and about 30 DDs all fully fuelled and armed and ready to intervene in Java or Sumatra. In addition I have formed a major USN TF comprising 4 BBs, 2 CA, 2 CL and about 20 DDs which I plan to use to raid Truk and then move into the southern DEI region to support RN actions in the region. Each of these fleets should be pretty much enough to take on the remaining IJN battleline ( minus CVs ). Semi-combined they ought to crush it so long as I can dodge Nells.

Currently USN CVs are transferring USN and USMC fighters to Oz in preparation for shuttling them into Sumatra also. I want more than 1,000 planes there but amn't sure if I'll get that by the time he acts. Right now my forces are topping out at about 800 or so planes.


I could be stronger in Sumatra but I've been building up Kendari, Ambon and Makassar into significant bases with Level 3 forts, 400 AV, airfields and enough supplies and fuel to fight for months if isolated. I think that's worthwhile because they will either distract him from his main invasion ( Sumatra ) OR be left alone while he invades Sumatra and be too difficult for him to take by the time he gets around to them. They also close off most of his Tanker SLOCs from Java and southern Borneo and allow surface raiding TFs into his SLOCs.


At this stage I'm actually reasonably confident I can hold Sumatra. It is self-sufficient in supplies and where I'm weak in troops I have lots of CD guns, Palembang has major terrain defensive bonuses and I have a HIGHLY mobile reserve of 700 +AV of tanks and armoured vehicles... That alone ought to seriously hurt the Japanese.

Combine that with AAA killing his bombers when they appear and my own fighters on CAP acting as escort to my bombers attacking his shipping as it unloads in the base hex ( ueber-guaranteed 100% co-ordination and a REALLY nice trick which I haven't seen anyone on the forum publicise yet ) and I think it'll be far more bloody than he can imagine. I might be wrong but that's my thinking...

The CAP thing is as follows:
1. If you have a Level 4 airbase put 200 fighters on CAP. They intercept incoming enemy strikes and butcher them.

2. When your strike planes come in your CAP co-ordinates with them and provides an "escort" since it is already in the air in that hex. This guarantees co-ordination.

3. Your CAP seems to have a combat modifier based on it being in the CAP role as opposed to the ESCORT role. This means that each of your fighters is MUCH LESS handicapped than it would be if it were escorting. In addition your fighters will be less fatigued since they haven't flown as far.

4. Enemy fighters in the base hex will be either:
CAP from their CVs - operating at 25% of max capacity, already you've reduced its effectiveness by 75%, big win for you. OR
LRCAP - which will fight while hugely fatigued - big win for you.


So, I think that the air war will be very much in my favour. Already I've destroyed just under 1,000 IJNAF planes in the past 3 months of conflict and overall he has lost 100+ more planes than I. I also have lots of 70 Exp fighter pilots in my squadrons and huge stocks of torpedoes in Sumatra.

As I said it may all go horribly wrong but I've done whatever I can to stack the odds in my favour and fight on ground favourable to me. The rest is beyond my control.


If you have any further questions please feel free. I'm not sure if the above is clear, I'm v, v, v, tired ;-)

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to SuluSea)
Post #: 376
Sumatra -- Come for the Warmth - 6/30/2010 8:27:03 PM   
Capt. Harlock


Posts: 5358
Joined: 9/15/2001
From: Los Angeles
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quote:

Jahat (sic) just east of Benkoenen is my main reserve area with a Level 7 airfield, 700+ planes hiding in the jungle and 800 AV of armoured units in strategic mode ready to reinforce Oosthaven or Palembang within 2 days. Tanks are real IJA-killers too so having the equivalent of 2 armoured divisions on hand should really help me butcher IJA attacks.


In addition to that I have hellacious amounts of FlAK and artillery in each of these hexes. For example I've just delivered a British AAA Brigade to Oosthaven and that alone has something like 140 FlAK guns, many of them the excellent 3,7 inch FlAK gun.


There's been a discussion in Cuttlefish's latest AAR on the value of time, properly used, in defending the DEI. I'm one of the ones holding the opinion that with just a bit more time than historical, a much harder fight can be made for Java and Sumatra. But you dispositions have gone beyond what even I imagined. A superb job of transporting resources, sir. (And I'll bet you have a number of first-line aircraft available, too.)

My only fear is that this game will be over before the invasion happens. The fuel situation in Japan must be a problem by now...

_____________________________

Civil war? What does that mean? Is there any foreign war? Isn't every war fought between men, between brothers?

--Victor Hugo

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 377
RE: Sumatra -- Come for the Warmth - 7/1/2010 1:18:18 AM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline
This is scenario 2 so the Japanese have enough fuel to last a long time. Thanks for the heads up on the Cuttlefish AAR. I'll check it out.

Basically for the DEI if the Allies can hold it till end of January 42 then the Japanese shouldn't take Sumatra, assuming the allies concentrate their defence appropriately.

Edit: I've read that thread now. Lots of use of the term strategic- often incorrectly used - a shockingly rapid dismissal of Alfred's input ( really his input was virtually thrown out en masse with very limited discussion ) and a strategic plan outlined which is mutually contradictory in places and transitions at an inopportune time ( I can't be more specific unless his opponent agrees to stay out of this thread). All in all I don't think there's an interest in having the "plan" critically evaluated and debated so won't be posting there. With that said I'm sure the two players will enjoy the game and Cuttlefish will definitely write an interesting AAR.

With that said a debate on the DEI strategic options would be interesting and I'd be happy for that to occur here if people want to post.

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 7/1/2010 1:40:55 AM >


_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Capt. Harlock)
Post #: 378
RE: Sumatra -- Come for the Warmth - 7/1/2010 9:14:58 AM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6685
Joined: 9/28/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

This is scenario 2 so the Japanese have enough fuel to last a long time. Thanks for the heads up on the Cuttlefish AAR. I'll check it out.

Basically for the DEI if the Allies can hold it till end of January 42 then the Japanese shouldn't take Sumatra, assuming the allies concentrate their defence appropriately...


...With that said a debate on the DEI strategic options would be interesting and I'd be happy for that to occur here if people want to post.


Ah...for some time now I have reflected on the Sumatra plan and notwithstanding its excellent points, had already come to the conclusion (partly for the reasons advanced in Nemo's last post) that it provides Japan with some excellent opportunities. So with the invitation advanced, here are some opening remarks.

(1) I have not looked at the Japanese opening position so I have to make certain assumptions. Primarily, in view of the declared dedication to historical accuracy, I assume that Japan starts off with similar stockpiles to the historical record. That being so, Japan should have stockpiles sufficient for at least 12 months of industrial production even without gaining any raw materials from the SRA.

(2) The SRA is not the only area from which Japan can capture additional raw materials to feed its industry and military operations in years 2, 3, and 4.

(3) The Allies can not turn off raw material production. What does not get used immediately is stockpiled. Thus the key point is not really when a base is captured but whether the transportation means exist to cope with daily production and the stockpile.

(4) Bases are static, field armies are mobile (but note the next point). Destroy the field army and you can always come back later to capture the base with its stockpiled raw materials.

(5) In the PTO field armies can be trapped and made irrelevant. We are not dealing with continental war but rather several separated theatres. Lose control of the SLOCs and essentially we just have a series of mutually non supportive giant boxes much like those of Graziani in 1940 and Ritchie in 1942.

(6) The scale of the deployment to southern Sumatra (as per the AE map orientation) means that there must be some significant areas, with valuable raw materials, undergarrisoned. This is only a problem if the Japanese realise this and act accordingly - and I think I know how Japan can take advantage of this deployment on southern Sumatra.

(7) Only about 50-60% of the Allied deployment is reliable. The very impressive paper figures mask some serious Allied weaknesses. Again this will only be a problem if Japan adopts a suitable plan to take advantage of this fact.

(8) Clearly Japan should already have lodged its forces in strength in the SRA. That it has not yet done so means that it must adapt to the changed conditions because if it proceeds along conventional lines, it will probably suffer a shattering defeat. But sometimes one's strength can be turned upside down into a major weakness.

You will note I have been careful in not being very prescriptive, but rest assured I have, as Baldrick would say, a cunning plan. I'm quite certain that Nemo is well aware of how, if he was the Japanese commander, he could undo the Allied plan. The fun will be to see how others would approach the puzzle.

Alfred

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 379
Sumatra - Stay Forever! - 7/1/2010 5:26:55 PM   
Nemo121


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Well that's a pretty call for plans from Alfred there. So how would you guys deal with an Allied investment of about 5,000 AV in southern Sumatra.

We'll take as read that there should be lots more recon to find what I have there and help IJA and IJN planning. In return for the plans I'll outline the counters I have or any counter plans...... OR I'll just go. " damn I hadn't thought of that, want a game."

_____________________________

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Well, that's that settled then.

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Post #: 380
RE: Sumatra - Stay Forever! - 7/1/2010 7:57:42 PM   
Ketza


Posts: 2227
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What would I do to counter such a huge allied force in Sumatra?

Not let it set up to begin with. You need a very fast forward tempo as Japan to keep such a beast from growing. You got to know when its time to bypass areas and come back for them later such as Bataan. You need a long range plan that takes into account protecting "quiet" areas while you push forward in other areas. Many Japanese players fail to garrison places such as the Kuriles with even a speed bump of forces. Many neglect setting up a defence of the Marshalls with enough force to keep an allied player thinking twice before commiting large surface units within Nettie/Zero range.

You have taken advantage of his huge errors and he has fallen for multiple traps you have set for him. I have pondered what his options are in this game and I cannot come up with anything that he can do to salvage the situation he finds himself in. You are sitting on top of his lifeblood and every turn you sit you grow stronger. He has no option at this juncture except to come at you and take horrendous casualties. He will have no navy left and his air force will be battered after what will at a minimum a 3-4 month struggle. If he is able to clear you out before the end of July he will be in no position to push any further.

He has lost the game but the battle that may come would be fun to read about. 


(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 381
RE: Sumatra - Stay Forever! - 7/1/2010 10:13:19 PM   
Alfred

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ketza

What would I do to counter such a huge allied force in Sumatra?

Not let it set up to begin with. You need a very fast forward tempo as Japan to keep such a beast from growing. You got to know when its time to bypass areas and come back for them later such as Bataan. You need a long range plan that takes into account protecting "quiet" areas while you push forward in other areas. Many Japanese players fail to garrison places such as the Kuriles with even a speed bump of forces. Many neglect setting up a defence of the Marshalls with enough force to keep an allied player thinking twice before commiting large surface units within Nettie/Zero range.

You have taken advantage of his huge errors and he has fallen for multiple traps you have set for him. I have pondered what his options are in this game and I cannot come up with anything that he can do to salvage the situation he finds himself in. You are sitting on top of his lifeblood and every turn you sit you grow stronger. He has no option at this juncture except to come at you and take horrendous casualties. He will have no navy left and his air force will be battered after what will at a minimum a 3-4 month struggle. If he is able to clear you out before the end of July he will be in no position to push any further.

He has lost the game but the battle that may come would be fun to read about. 




That is far too defeatist an attitude for two basic reasons.

Firstly it doesn't appear to be based on a detached assessment of what assets remain to Japan. From this distance it seems to me that Japan still has:

(a) oodles of reserves in Manchukuo for which PPs do not have to be paid for their use outside of Manchukuo. They could be used in China or Burma or even India
(b) the KB remains intact. Surely Japan has been engaged in appropriate pilot training. I would be very surprised to discover it to be incapable of dominating any naval encounter involving it.
(c) Japan still retains interior lines so it can still descend on any Allied "box" and obliterate it.
(d) in terms of first class materiel Japan should still be outproducing the Allies hence it should not yet fear becoming entangled in attrition
(e) the at start Southern Army remains largely intact and overall still retains its overall qualitative edge over the Allied field armies. The breathing space accorded to the Allies to date will have allowed them to improve their quality to a degree, but not to the degree that should adversely affect the Japanese commander's morale
(f) effective deployment of IJA air assets is yet to occur. They should still be largely intact.

Secondly, what exactly do you mean to be his lifeblood. What exactly do you think Japan must do or have in order to prosper? If your answer is oil/fuel then that is a pretty conventional approach which overlooks some important factors:

(i) as I said in my previous post, I assume Japan starts off with a substantial stockpile of raw materials which together with continued production from Manchukuo/Hokkaido/China should be sufficient to see it through 1942. Palembang is certainly the jewel in the crown of oil/fuel production but there are certainly plenty of other sources which can be conquered independently. Provided Japan does not become fixated on Palembang to the exclusion of other just as valuable sites, Japan could still prosper.
(ii) due to the Allied concentration on southern Sumatra this means that important secondary raw material production sites will be subjected to much reduced Allied pressure. Thus Japanese investment in repairing those sites will make much more economical sense than usual.
(iii) the Allied head on southern Sumatra has been considerably strengthened, but what about the shoulders. Immediately fighting on southern Sumatra is playing into Nemo's strength but what if you strike elsewhere which is just as important, albeit for slightly different reasons. How quickly and effectively do you think the Allies can redeploy if they lack control over their SLOCs.

If Japan approaches the situation along conventional grounds, then yes I expect it to be resoundingly defeated. It's reaction to the action in the Mandates has also unnecessarily weakened Japan. But to say it is already defeated, well then the same could have been said of Japan on 7 December 1941, particularly as it failed to strike at Pearl Harbor. It is possible that my cunning plan would not be good enough to deliver victory to Japan in the long run, but it is most definitely wrong to say that whatever it does now will be a failure.

Alfred

(in reply to Ketza)
Post #: 382
RE: Sumatra - Stay Forever! - 7/1/2010 10:44:41 PM   
DTurtle

 

Posts: 443
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Not having played the game - I only read some AARs - here are my thoughts:

1) The Allied player has a massive force at Sumatra - a force that is missing elsewhere (ignoring the fact that some of it is from a successfully evacuated Singapore). This means that invasions unthinkable in a normal game might actually be possible here.

2) Is Sumatra self-sufficient concerning supplies? If not, it might be possible to isolate and starve it. Isolating it also makes it impossible for the Allied player to move the oil/fuel out of Sumatra, which could make it possible to capture those stockpiles once the supplies run out.

3) So, I would let Sumatra stand (for now) and finally invade Java and Burma.

4) To complete the isolation of Sumatra and take advantage of the massive concentration of forces there, I would invade Sri Lanka at the very least and possible attempt an invasion of India itself. At this point in time the Japanese Navy is still strong enough to support such an undertaking.

[Edit]Having found a better world map, point 4 is probably impossible because of the various straights, and going the long way around Java and through the Indian Ocean is too long for any major invasions by sea. I do not know how viable an overland invasion via Burma is, but Sumatra is a thorn in the side for this theater.

The other possibility is moving on Australia - I expect the reinforcements for Sumatra mostly came from here. This might make it possible to try what PZB blew off at the last moment in his game: A complete conquest of Australia. I do not know how many Resources Australia includes, though I do recall Allied players having major fuel troubles in Australia.

However, there are very capable players here who can definitely give a lot better ideas.
[/Edit]

However, I seriously doubt that your opponent will do anything like this. He has so far done very little given the large leeway given in your house rules.

Frankly, I as a spectator would absolutely love it if someone else would take over the Japanese Forces at this point, as you have shown that you completely outclass your opponent. Your talent is going to waste against such an opponent. Your planning and the thoughts behind it are very illuminating and entertaining - it would be nice to see you go up against an opponent who forces you to your limit. Everyone - including, I think, you - would profit from this.

Watching sheep go to the slaughter might be interesting for a while and include quite a few intellectual challenges, but a real fight is better for all.

< Message edited by DTurtle -- 7/1/2010 11:19:38 PM >

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 383
RE: Sumatra - Stay Forever! - 7/1/2010 11:20:37 PM   
SqzMyLemon


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Oops, posted in error.

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 384
RE: Sumatra - Stay Forever! - 7/2/2010 1:34:37 AM   
Nemo121


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Interesting, I think Alfred and I would not view Palembang as being as essential as most here seem to think. It certainly is the biggest OIL producing centre on the map but when all of the other easily-taken OIL centres are added together Japan has enough to run its HI in Scenario 2 at full strength. So, Palembang is really only necessary if the other sources of OIL don't fall ( and since most of those are in Borneo or Malaysia and |Burma that's pretty much unthinkable ) OR Japan wants to expand its economy ( which it can get away without doing ).

So, I would suggest we really need two strands here:
1. Ways to actually take Palembang relatively intact now and
2. Things to do if you don't actually try to take Palembang intact, or at all.

That should result in more options revealing themselves. The key is too not just accept the conventional wisdom and say "Palembang must be taken"... That's fine at one level of analysis but on a deeper level while hugely important it may not be worth the price being asked. E.g. Right now it would take the entire SRA for a period of a month to take Sumatra and by the end of that month the SRA would be incapable of further offensive action toward Oz or India at all. The act of taking SUmatra ( which Japan can still do with the forces at its disposal now ) would consign it to being on the strategic defensive for the rest of the war - fulfilling my prime strategic goal in pouring those troops into Sumatra.

Now, what we need to ask ourselves is whether or not Palembang is worth THAT or could we do something with the SRA during the rest of 1942 which would be worth leaving Palembang untaken or destroyed in our rear?

Personally if I were Japan right now I would launch two major strategic offensives, at least one of which would only have been made possible by the fact that my lack of interdiction aided the Allies in pouring their forces into Sumatra. The goal would be to gain the strategic depth to buy another 12 to 18 months of survival.


I will also point out that given our HRs in this game India is UTTERLY doable. In fact not only is it doable, it would actually be hard NOT to take it if you were the Japanese player and took the indirect approach with combined IJA/IJN operations. And I'm not talking about taking a small portion of south-east India, I'm talking about capturing and holding the whole country whilst still maintaining the strategic availability of the SRA.

So, add that to your analyses and let's see what you come up with




DTurtle,
Sumatra makes about 1,000 tons of supplies per day so it is pretty self-sufficient.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 385
RE: Sumatra - Stay Forever! - 7/2/2010 4:56:13 AM   
Alfred

 

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Nemo121,

Hmn...at the risk of disclosing too much of my "cunning plan" (and thank you v..e..r..y m..u..c..h for starting to expose to the public my hidden "cunning plan"), I will confirm that yes I do not consider the capture of Palembang to be as indispensable as most players do. Nor am I particularly concerned if it is completely in ruins when captured provided other important objectives in compensation have been achieved. The oil of Palembang is only important if it is needed and that ultimately depends on what the Allies do or are capable of doing. There is no prize awarded to Japan simply for building up its GDP, the important thing is for what purpose does it need that GDP.

As to Japan having two strategic offensives. I can see several, not just two, very promising actions but the loses incurred in the Mandates would almost certainly limit his realistic options. Irrespective of what Japan has to hand, the situation on southern Sumatra makes one particular objective an imperative which Japan simply cannot overlook.

You might care to consider posting some screenshots with your estimates of enemy and Allied theatre forces to assist others to frame operational plans as per your last post. Otherwise you might just get some wishful thinking.

Alfred

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 386
RE: Sumatra - Stay Forever! - 7/2/2010 7:30:55 AM   
Nemo121


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No need to thank me . I just didn't wantbto have to sit through Palembang only options. Don't get me wrong though, i think there are ways in which Sumatra can be taken without wrecking the SRA too much.

I'll give that data tonight.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 387
RE: Sumatra - Stay Forever! - 7/2/2010 8:04:02 AM   
LoBaron


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Very interesting discussion here.

If I may I´d like to add some points to it:

While I agree that Palembang and its oil varies in importance depending on the expansion of Japanese industry,
Sumatra (and Java, Timor etc.) are needed for a working definsive perimeter. This is something I would rate the
primary goal of conquering the DEI´s anyway.
As with Darwin, many of the Japanese offensives should be viewed as denial of bases to the Allies that have the
potential to act as staging areas for later war counteroffensives.
From this perspective conquering Sumatra is vital to Japanese survival.

That said, a massed Allied army in any of those areas just makes the neccessity to conquer them more important
for the Japanese player - if this is at all possible.

So the basic question for the Allied player is:

- Should the forces committed for defensive operations in Sumatra include units that could be of value later
in the war? 
- If the answer is yes, is the loss of those units something that outweights the gain in delaying the Japanese advance in the area?
- Is the benefit that comes with forcing the Japanese player to committ more forces for the conquest and the resulting delay in other strategic regions
worth the price of exposing units that could be later used for other operations?

And most important:
- With the above implications that Sumatra is a must-have and that its obvious that the Japanese player simply
has to use the forces to conquer it, but without the added pressure of performing this operation as fast as possible (because raw materials
don´t dictate your op tempo there), is Sumatra tenable?

My "stomach" answer would be no, which would lead me to the conclusion that the Allies should committ, if possible, enough forces to delay the
advance, but not invest in blocking an offensive completely.


_____________________________


(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 388
RE: Sumatra - Stay Forever! - 7/2/2010 3:57:51 PM   
Wirraway_Ace


Posts: 1400
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Nemo121,

Hmn...at the risk of disclosing too much of my "cunning plan" (and thank you v..e..r..y m..u..c..h for starting to expose to the public my hidden "cunning plan"), I will confirm that yes I do not consider the capture of Palembang to be as indispensable as most players do. Nor am I particularly concerned if it is completely in ruins when captured provided other important objectives in compensation have been achieved. The oil of Palembang is only important if it is needed and that ultimately depends on what the Allies do or are capable of doing. There is no prize awarded to Japan simply for building up its GDP, the important thing is for what purpose does it need that GDP.


While I agree that capturing Palembang intact is not indispensable, leaving intact airbases with adequate supply from which the Allies can operate 4Es against your oil and refinery centers throughout much of the DEI is simply not viable. That being said, bottling up a large Allied Army in Palembang (similiar to Bataan), is an option for Japan, but it would tie down a significant force.

Nemo's strategy has combined the Brits and the Dutch in good terrain astride a key strategic objective for Japan. Bypassing this salient is not an option. It must be squeezed down to Palembang in my opinion. It might work to rapidly complete the take-over of all the remaining DEI and then hit Ceylon and much of India to isolate the salient, but I still think Nemo could use resupply from Cape Town or Perth and employ 4Es against oil/refineries, making the situation intollerable for Japan. I think the likelyhood that Japan could occupy all the airfields in 4E transfer range is slight, although I have not done the math.

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 389
RE: Sumatra - Stay Forever! - 7/2/2010 9:10:43 PM   
Ketza


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Well if my opinion is deemed as "defeatest" its because this particular player in my humble opinion has been defeated and the fat lady is on her way to the stage. I do however have great respect for players such as Alfred and Nemo and look forward to reading thier opinions and theories concerning this great game. So why do I feel he is beaten?

He really has not shown the ability so far in this game to compete with Nemo and honestly it does not appear that will change. He will have to overcome some serious hurdles that would challenge even the most experienced player. Losing the Marshalls in early 1942 and having a very potent allied force in Sumatra/Java through 1942? Its a nightmare. Throw in the fact his surface units have taken a hard hit and the problems are compounded.

His aces up his sleeve are of course KB, LBA and a very effective ground force. Surely he could push where the allies arent but if he does so two very dangerous thorns in his side continue to grow. One of those thorns will allow the staging of 4E bombers into the heart of the SRA. Nemo is already planning an offensive in China as well.

I am really looking forward to seeing what these plans are for potentially getting him out of this mess. Maybe I will learn a few things along the way.


(in reply to Wirraway_Ace)
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