Chickenboy
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Joined: 6/29/2002
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
9/29/42
A momentous day with significant developments that require important decisions that will resonate around the globe.
Jalagon: Brad's army at Jalagon didn't attack. In fact, nearly 25% of his units departed the hex, either the beginning of a general retreat or part of a plan to fight for control of the flanking hexes. Either strategy is bad, at this point, but the latter is a particularly poor option. Time is against Brad. His only chance to retain the initiative or at least preserve the status quo is to attack and take Jalagon before Allied reinforcements arrive. Niether side attacked, Allied air strikes were not particularly impressive, and Japan's besieging army dropped from 95k to about 75k as several units seem to have pulled out to the east and to the south.
What is Japan Doing: While Brad might have ordered a general retreat, which would be his second best option at this point, I think he might be leaving a holding force at Jalagon while he prepares to fight for control of the flanking hexes. The fact that he just sent one of his five Bombay divisions north on the road to Jalagon makes this seem likely. But this is a losing strategy. The Allies have alot more reinforcements on the way. In addition to British infantry and armor and Indian infantry arriving in numbers at Indore, a flood of reinforcements just reached Karachi - an armored brigade is coming ashore, and reinforcements in the form of an Indian division and two Chindit brigades just came in at Karachi. This gives the Allies 700 additional AV to work with.
What will happen at Jalagon: If Brad stays and fights on the flanks, his army will eventually get beaten. If he has ordered a general retreat, the Allies will be right on his heals and things may turn into a disorganzed route.
What the Allies will do: The two Chindit brigades will move to forward bases, giving the Allies three paratroop units near the front. 27th USA Division will likely continue to Jalagon to make sure it is secure. Additional units arriving will move toward the flanking hexes. LBA will try to pound the enemy. If the enemy appears to be cracking or in general retreat, I may drop the paratroops on rear bases/dot hexes to theaten the enemy's line of retreat.
What the Allies need to evaluate: The Allies could use the new reinforcements to create an amphibious army that could land, under cover of carriers, at Mangalore. The Allies still control this base south of Goa, so the landing would be friendly (IE, no disruption or losses). Landing here in strength would seriously threaten two of Japan's best routes of retreat from the Bombay/Jalagon areas, posing a serious threat to the long-term survival of the Japanese army. This sounds "great" at first blush, but has important downsides: (1) At perhaps 1,000 AV, the Allies force could itself be surrounded and destroyed; (2) Japan has several big airfields in the area, including Cuttack at level seven; with the porous CAP and anemic flak that exists in AE, the Allies carriers would be at risk; and (3) revealing the location of my carriers gives Brad freedom to roam in the Pacific, and that's a bad thing at this point. For those reasons I am leaning against this operation.
Allied carriers: The conditions that led me to keep my carriers available for possible action in the Arabian Sea have changed. The Allies will be fine in India without them. Should I elect against the Mangalore operation, then my carriers are no longer needed in this theater. SigInt just reported IJA 24th Division prepping for Midway, which I think is an important strategic target for Japan. There are also the looming threats against Fiji and possibly Baker or New Zealand. Therefore, I am strongly considering moving my carriers from Capetown to Balboa to be ready for action in the Pacific.
The Pacific: Multiple IJN subs are working around Suva (one sank a supply xAK) and at Baker Island. A sub south of New Zealand's southern tip got an eyeful of a major USN combat TF including CAs Pensacola and Portland. (I wonder what Brad thinks of that.) Another sub is near Adak. Brad has also been reconning Midway, apparently by Emily (is Midway close enough to Wake to permit such?). I think things are going to get hot in the Pacific in about two or three weeks.
SoPac: The Norfolk Island invasion force leaves Hobart tonight.
Brad: The slow-down in turns doesn't bother me nearly as much as Brad's lack of interest in his AAR. As I checked his posting history this a.m., I found that he has posted several times in the new WitE forum. That's a bad sign. Back in my UV days, I was involved in a tight game. Suddenly, my opponent seemed to lose interest. Then he showed up in the then-new WitP forums, where he became immeresed in that game. He half-heartedly tried to continue our UV game, but eventually gave it up. That's what I'm afraid is happening here. I want to give it somore more time to see if things work out, so I won't say anything unless the trend continued into January or unless Brad brings it up.
If you are convinced that Brad is ordering a general withdraw from the Indian subcontinent East *and* you're going to be moving your carriers to the Pacific anyways, would this be the right time for you to consider your Sumatra option? I would think that you would want to swing around as wide as possible in order to snare as many Jap divisions in India as you could.
Nothing wrong with frontal assault attrition from the Allies perspective, but you may have an opportunity for maneuver warfare here to supplement the Indian attrition.
Just a thought...
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RE: One Weird Battle - 
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