ComradeP
Posts: 7192
Joined: 9/17/2009
Status: offline
|
As a strategic assessment of the situation at this point and a description of near future plans:
-The main setback thus far remains the lack of progress by AGN's mobile forces in the early turns, which also significantly reduced the benefit of sending them there and in turn postponed the Dnepr crossing until significant Soviet forces could be moved in.
-Until the mud hits, AGN will try to occupy the area between lake Peipus and lake Pskov (crucial to prevent the Soviets from walking into clear terrain across the major river hexsides during the winter) and possibly advance up to lake Ilmen. I won't try to capture Leningrad, it isn't going to happy anymore. I was hoping it was possible, but the swamp defense quickly removed that hope. The right hook east of lake Ilmen that some players have tried is interesting, and it has good potential, but that wasn't possible due to the initial lack of progress, and you really have to get east of lake Ilmen before around turn 10 to make it work.
As such, I've accepted that the historical gains in the AGN area are not going to be possible, primarily due to the terrain and not due to the Soviet forces in the area. I had actually planned for this eventuality and am perfectly fine with abandoning the attempt to capture Leningrad. There are significant benefits to capturing the city, but it would at this point require way too many forces if it's even still possible at all.
One corps will dig in on the Narva river. Hopefully the heavy woods and swamp hexes will greatly limit the impact of the Soviet blizzard offensive. I'll probably set them to static, as he can't really outflank me there.
-In the AGC area, the going is slow, but I don't consider that to be a problem at this point. My goals are to capture Smolensk and possibly Bryansk. Anything else is extra. I have no intention of pushing east to the historical limit, even if it would still be possible. Quite simply, I think the Axis should fight to survive the war, not to capture as much Soviet territory as possible, only to lose it again due to overextension. As I need over 145 or so points to get a minor victory on the final turn, I've accepted that the best result will probably be a draw as I'd need to hold the Ukraine until the end of the game for a minor victory to be possible.
One good thing about slow and methodical advances is that I'm fighting within reasonable distances of my rail lines, which eases supply.
I'll launch a limited 1942 summer offensive in the AGC area, but the goals will depend on where the frontline is after the snow turns in early 1942.
Soviet troop quality won't increase all that much unless they get a lot of morale boosting victories, which is one of the main reasons I'm surprised about the lack of counterattacks. The Soviets are not going to get beyond about 60 morale unless they win lots of battles. At 50-60 morale, a Rifle corps will have a strength of around 15, which is something I can deal with. 15 strength Rifle corps are not something the Axis should be too scared of. 30-40 strength Rifle corps, however, are extremely scary.
-AGS will hopefully be able to capture at least Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye. I'd like to capture the 3 cities east of that too, but that's probably not going to be possible without serious overextension.
I doubt it's possible to get across the southermost part of the Dnepr with all those swamp hexes on the other side, so I don't think I'm going to try to take the Crimea. Like with Leningrad, there are too many terrain limitations, in this case primarily the narrow entry point, which will be fortified to at least level 4 forts by the time I get there.
-The crucial thing that I have to keep in good shape is Wehrmacht morale and thus experience. If I can keep mobile unit morale over 90, and thus their experience too, their combat power will be good even when the TOE's downside rather seriously in 1945. If I only have ~60-70 morale/experience units by that time, I'm going to get creamed by the horde of Soviet mobile forces. A 1944 90 experience/morale Panzer division with adequate support should be more than capable of dealing with a Soviet Tank corps with around 60 morale/experience. The key is again to prevent Soviet victories.
I'm guessing he'll try to mix Tank corps with Rifle units for some easy victories, so the key will be to prevent such opportunities from presenting themselves.
-In general, my defense is going to rely on flexibility, mobility and trading ground lost in order to prevent units from being lost. The Soviets don't really have much flexibility and until their morale improves to counter the impressive additional MP's required for medium to low morale units moving from hostile ZOC to hostile ZOC, the mobility of his mobile units won't be too good.
As I see it, the mid to late war will come down to a wall of Soviet units moving west, with my mobile units nibbling parts of that wall from time to time. It's much easier to isolate Soviet forces they're attacking with their mediocre 1942-1943 armies than when I'm attacking, as the Soviets player can just pull back a bit and checkerboard. There's more or less zero incentive to hold ground currently.
-As to my opponent: I'd say he has thus far correctly played to the obvious Soviet strength that there's a major river running north/south around a large part of the map. You don't need to be a strategic genius to see the benefits of the river, but you do have to be a good planner to make a defense work. Some fort levels are a tad low, but he has done a good job thus far. He has also done a good job with pulling back his forces, so I can't really pocket much.
The main thing he isn't doing is concentrating his forces, and thus counterattacking. What you want to try to do as the Soviet player is to try and take the initiative from the Axis. Now he is giving the initiative solely to me: he's holding a static defensive line along a natural barrier. As far as I can see, there's little to no depth in the line. I can see about 1/3 of his Rifle formations. If I include the forces I assume to be present in the hexes bordering the Dnepr I can't see and the Leningrad area, that's about 2/3 of his Rifle formations. The rest are probably training or refitting. Ideally, you want to leave the Axis clueless where your forces are, but he's essentially yelling "here they are!" by placing them all in a fairly static position.
I think he'll have the common sense to get out of dodge when the Dnepr bridgeheads widen, but I would probably have done the Dnepr defense a bit differently. I'm not going to say how differently at this point as some of you might incidentally give him ideas that might make my crossings much more difficult than they already are.
The main flaws in his defensive planning thus far are in my opinion that he essentially doesn't counterattack and that he seriously overreacts to flanking movements, simply pulling everything back instead of trying to stall me and play for time. In the Velikie Luki area, for example, he has pulled back fairly significantly from the swamps in the area just because my mobile forces are about to encircle Velikie Luki.
As a good Soviet player, you should see those things as mostly unrelated events: the goal of the forces in the swamps is to prevent Axis infantry from moving up, the goal of the forces in the Velikie Luki area is to prevent the isolation of the city and to minimize the breakthrough. The forces in the swamps should not be moved east to support the area, as that will allow the Axis infantry to move in. As with chess, just because your pieces are next to eachother doesn't mean they should be used to accomplish the same goal. He has even moved forces into the hills east of the city, whilst fairly obviously my mobile forces will be heading south to isolate his strong between river "land bridge" defenses in the Vitebsk and Smolensk area.
I'll only truly be able to judge his skills during his blizzard offensive. If he botches that, my life will be a lot easier in 1942.
Thus far, as a grade I'd give him a B for being able to minimize losses and staging a fairly capable defense along the Dnepr and myself a C for the AGN and AGC areas and a B for the AGS area.
< Message edited by ComradeP -- 1/10/2011 4:24:43 PM >
_____________________________
SSG tester
WitE Alpha tester
Panzer Corps Beta tester
Unity of Command scenario designer
|
Printable Version
RE: Turn 5 - 
New Messages
No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages
Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages
Locked w/o New Messages
Post New Thread