ComradeP
Posts: 7192
Joined: 9/17/2009
Status: offline
|
quote:
What turn is it anyway, and how many turns of clear does that allow you? Your objectives seem very conservative, but your opponent has been cagey and played the SU pretty well it seems. He has played a "Sir Robin", or "Commisar Robinsky" defense, which makes it very tough to encircle and destroy Soviets after the first couple turns.
Interesting take on long-term German objectives; you are focusing on force-preservation as #1, and plan to create a Ukranian Redoubt to hold-off the Soviets in 1944. Curious how that will pan out.
Starting with an aside: as you may know I read your WitP:AE AAR for the game against Cuttlefish as well as the game against Canoerebel. As a reader, I'm greatly annoyed at the success rate of an Allied Sir Robin defence in WitP:AE, especially the kind Canoerebel has pulled off where it seems he's essentially balancing everything in a way that will only just prevent you from getting an auto-victory (that's just my perspective, of course).
That's just too wildly ahistorical for my liking. It's not like the Allies could've said "OK, let's hide our most critical ships and allow the Japs to take everything in India aside from a couple of cities in the western part of the country, as we know they won't win the war until the cities in India are captured or our ships are sunk". I have to say I admire the fact that you accept that defence and keep playing. Aside from my limited interested in the Pacific component compared to the European/African components of WWII, the fact that Allied defensive strategies can be really cheesy is also something holding me back from buying it.
You might see it all differently, but it's just my observation.
The Axis can face a similar situation in WitE, but you at least have some tools to get at least a draw. Judging by the various WitP:AE AAR's, it's quite difficult for Japan to get a draw or prevent the Home Islands from being turned into the world's biggest open air BBQ through an Allied strategic air offensive. As I see it, a draw should certainly be possible in WitE.
Of course, there's always the point that the Western Allies would probably have walked into Berlin if the Soviets had not, provided the Axis were losing badly in the east, but the Western Allies are not really represented in the game aside from that they force Italy to surrender, provide Lend Lease equipment and lower the Axis production over time.
The Soviets more or less really need to try and take the initiative in late 1942/mid 1943, otherwise they're not going to have the momentum to win the war (win as in: hammer and sickle on the Reichstag and its counterparts in minor Axis countries).
To me, one of the most critical strategic failures of the Axis, but thus primarily the Germans, was the thought that if they kept pushing east, the Soviets would not be able to push them west. That idea should've gone out of the window after the first winter, but it didn't, and the Axis paid dearly in late 1942 and mid 1943, when their chance of stalling the Soviets essentially evaporated. You don't win a land war in Asia by capturing territory. You win land wars in Asia by killing so many enemies that their offensive capabilities are essentially crippled. The Japanese in China and the Axis in the USSR failed to do so, they tried advancing against a stubborn foe with, compared to them, nigh limitless manpower reserves. Holding Orel, Kursk, Kharkov and the surrounding areas for a year will be felt much less than the Soviets taking millions of losses.
The Soviets can easily replace men, they can't easily replace experienced men. If through skill or luck you destroy a number of good Guards formations, that's a genuine problem, and if you destroy mobile units, they'll immediately feel it. One of the main Soviet Achillesheels is that their national morale's pretty bad, and thus the experience their new units start with is pretty bad, which means it takes time to train them and that even when trained, their units are not too great. The same applies to the Germans later in the war, which is why force preservation is one of my main objectives. As I explained earlier: if I can keep the Soviets around 50-60 experience, and my own forces at around 90, I have a much better chance of keeping them out of the minor Axis countries than if I let the Soviets evolve their corps into unstoppable killing machines.
Given the choice between losing 100.000 men and moving the front 100 miles east to a position I can't possibly hold, or not losing those men and defending a position I can hold fairly comfortably, I'll pick the latter.
As to the Ukrainian redoubt: look at the map. Draw a line from Leningrad to the Crimea. Major population centers are pretty scarce west of that line aside from in the Ukraine. In the center, there's Vitebsk, Mogilev, gomel and Minsk, then a length of nothing and then Lithuania and Poland. In the north, there's Riga, Pskov and Tallinn. In the Ukraine, you stumble into the next city as you move away from the previous one. Not to mention that the Ukraine "protects" Romania and Hungary. The chance that the Soviets will get through Byelorussia with its light woods and convenient rivers and Poland with its equally convenient rivers and central location of Warsaw is pretty small unless he puts pressure on the Ukraine. If I hold the territory west of that line, I hold almost a quarter of the Soviet manpower, the highest concentrations being in the Ukraine.
There's also the resource production in the area, which benefit Axis war production. I'm hoping the resources in some cities won't be too damaged when I capture them (25+random roll of d75). The resources are one reason why I'm not yet sure if I'm going to make a push for Stalino and surrounding cities: if the Soviets recapture them during their winter offensive, and I recapture the cities in 1942, the resource factories will be damaged 3 times, so they'll probably take a year to start producing again. I'd rather try my luck with a single d75 roll than with three.
My main problem in the AGS area as I see it is that I'll be in deep excrement if notenome has a line in those swamp hexes along the southernmost part of the Dnepr. It's currently turn 8, as in: It's my turn and it's turn 8. I have 10 turns of clear weather and then some snow turns to iron things out. My objectives are conservative because it will take me time to get across the Dnepr in force and thus I don't know what I'll be able to accomplish in the center and the south. After giving it some thought, my advance in the center is less slow than I had initially thought: a competent Soviet player can prevent the Germans from arriving at the Dnepr in force until turn 4-5, which will mean they can make their first serious crossing attempt on turn 5-6. My crossing was on turn 7.
< Message edited by ComradeP -- 1/10/2011 11:15:28 PM >
_____________________________
SSG tester
WitE Alpha tester
Panzer Corps Beta tester
Unity of Command scenario designer
|
Printable Version
RE: Turn 7 - 
Your conservative approach is an interesting alternative to the historical go-for-broke strategy that everyone else including me is trying. 
New Messages
No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages
Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages
Locked w/o New Messages
Post New Thread