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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/29/2011 6:54:22 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Very strange - especially if you're not getting much in the way of SigINT information at this time denoting preps for other targets. He can still apply overwhelming pressure, but more and more it seems not to be pointed at the Western Part of the map.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/29/2011 7:18:49 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		witpqs, good question. If things continue this way, I'll end up wishing I hadn't stripped the garrisons from Borneo, Celebes, Java, etc. to bolster Sumatra's garrisons. There is a chance the Allies could end up backfilling, but not until I felt pretty sure Sumatra, with it's critical supply-producing capability, is safe. Of cousre, alot can change and very quickly (and that should be the case unless this game is really going awry), so I may be backing off my optimistic assessments in short order.

paullus99, I'm getting essentially zero "prepping for" SigInt. I think Imperial Guards prepping for Singaproe is the only divisional level info I've received to date. I've gotten some small units, but all of those reports were for obvious targets like Iba, Singapore, and Mersing. Zero intel that would clue me in to Steve's real axis of advance.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/29/2011 7:30:29 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Perhaps he is planning to invade... Hollywood! Fortunately, one P-40 can stop that plan.

On a more serious note, I still find the apparent misallocation of resources to NOPAC by Steve interesting. Arguably, it is the only solid clue you have to date regarding his intentions. Could be maskirovka of course, but something must be up.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/29/2011 7:33:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I agree about NoPac. Committing Shokaku and Zuikaku there is pretty signifiant in showing what weight he attaches to the area. I like holding the Aleutians, but as far as I'm concerned that's a dead-end route for an IJ player to pursue. If he comes for the Aleutians all-out, I won't contest it, because I'll be hard at work elsewhere.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/29/2011 7:43:24 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Just a thought - if he read your AAR with Q-Ball, he's probably suspecting that you won't show your carriers unless you were serious about a given area (perhaps a bit of "training to fight the last war" syndrome) - so he's thinking you are the one that's serious about the Aleutians & he is moving to try to forestall you there (the failed invasion stinks - you really should have been able to push him off that rock - stupid weather).



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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 12:25:58 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I went for a long walk this afternoon and puzzled and puzzled "'til my puzzler was sore" (as the Grinch would say). I didn't come up with much, but here are my thoughts.

1. Steve is a capable, experienced player who will not rattle easily. At least, I have to assume that he is. If he isn't, the game will spiral out of control for him and it won't be much of a contest. But if he is, he may be orchestrating some well-thought out master move that will leave me stunned.

2. I do think he wants to make a major play in China. Whether that means shipping in extra unrestricted divisions I don't know. But I don't think he's putting all his eggs in this basket. If he was, he'd be making a routine play for Luzon and the DEI, I believe. So, China is only part of it.

3. It is remotely possible that he's laid back in the DEI hoping that the Allies will pull all the troops out of Borneo, Java, etc. to reinforce Sumatra. He would do this only in hopes of making an easy conquest of the neutered bases, cutting off and isolating Sumatra, and then moving on India. But he's moving awfully slowly if that's his plan, and the Allied plan of "filling the vaccum" created by sending Indian units forward by substituting American units should thwart Steve. I hope. This plan makes the best sense from my perspective.

4. The only other plan that makes sense to me is an all-out grab for Hawaii or Oz. But if he were doing that, he'd also be making a routine grab for positions iin the DEI. So I don't think this is likely.

Therefore, until I find out otherwise, my overall strategy will be to reinforce Sumatra, perhaps leave 300 AV at Batavia, prepare to reinforce Port Blair and perhaps Burma (or at least continue the flow of supplies to Burma), and to fill in the vacuum with American troops. No more American troops go to the Pacific for the foreseeable future.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 3:01:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/15/42

SigInt: Report that 4th Division is on a maru bound for Iba; if true, this is to reinforce the IJ campaign against Clark Field. Previous reports were that 4th was on a maru bound for Truk. I had the same sequence with 33rd Division over the past week - once bound for Truk, now headed for Iba. What's with deciding five weeks into the war that you really do want Luzon sooner rather than later? He could have had these divisions on Luzon four weeks ago. These reports could be part of a big hoax, but they seem to dovetail with what I'm seeing, leading me to believe the enemy is in a state of confusion. Therefore, the Allies ratchted up the "Fortress Palembang" operation yet another notch. I bought another Indian brigade on Ceylon (the last one, so the cupboard will be very bare). I'm also preparing to send some base forces forward.

Western DEI: No further developments here with the exception of additional IJA regiments reinforcing the attack at Singapore. Singers AV is at 834 with forts 3.56. Palembag is now 731 (forts 3.07). Oosthaven is 305 (2.07). The Tarakan CD force unloaded at Oosthaven today. Most of an Indian brigade will land tonight. (Once Clark Field and Singapore fall, it would be natural for Steve to commit those troops to Palembang, so the longer they hold the better - I need about a month to double the eastern Sumatran defenses).

Eastern DEI: No forward enemy activity (very strange).

Luzon: I'm pulling my remaining units out of Manila to concentrate at Clark, where the Allies will have about 1550 AV behind four forts. If 33rd and 4th Div. are truly on the way, Steve should have enough to handle Clark relatively expeditiously.

China: The Chinese successfully pulled back from the front at Loyang and Chengchow. The new MLR will be in the forests east of Sian. A big IJ stack appeared near Kweilin. That's a critical post for the Allies. A breakthrough there is a disaster. I have 1400 AV behind three forts with another 800 AV on the way.

NoPac: Shokaku and Zuikaku Vals sank AM Oriole, which had been on picket duty near Attu Island.

CenPac: Quiet. Sara and Lex are southwest of San Diego. Ent repairs will be completed in two days. Ent and York will join the other two, make for Tahiti to refuel, and then look for opportunities in the short term to intervene in SoPac (while Shokaku and Zuikaku aren't around).

Timing Is Everything: If the Allies can reinforce Sumatra substantially over the next month as planned, it will leave India pretty naked. American troops won't begin to arrive there until about 45 days from now, beginning with a trickle and gradually building as time goes on. For the next three weeks, I have the ability to recall to India most of the troops I'm sending to Sumatra, but after than the defense of India will be dependent upon American intervention. There will be a gap - from about February 1 through about April 1, in which India will be terribly weak.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 3:55:32 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		Some earlier discussions about IJ players confounding Allied Intel got me thinking. One scenario I came up with is this: A unit is on board ship, destination set to Truk. Home port is set to Iba. Waypoint is set near Iba. When the TF arrives at the waypoint, player clicks on 'return to Iba'.

If there is an Allied Intel hit on the unit-TF destination, it will be Truk until right before it gets to Iba.


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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 4:15:06 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Yes, there are several clever ways to confuse the Allies on SigInt. Very useful and very tough to untangle.

I don't think that's what's happening here, though. I can't imagine that Steve would bother to disguise his intention to send units to Luzon early in the game. Luzon is an obvious target and there's little the Allies can do in response early in the war. Better to just send the units strait to Luzon and fiddle with SigInt deception for other units bound for less obvious destinations (I think).

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 6:46:02 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		In both WitP and AE, the games usually unfold similarly. The Japanese player uses his opening, "lightnening" attacks to seize forward bases including most of the DEI. During this opening flurry, which may las a couple of months, the IJ player vanquishes certain important Allied bases (Hong Kong, Singapore, and usually Luzon, though sometimes that is bottled up with a small holding force). This frees up the forces needed to then embark on the second wave of attacks - the "deep penetration" against India, Australia, the SoPac Islands, or Hawaii, that might give the Japanese player a chance at auto victory.

In this game, the opening Japanese move seemingly hasn't gotten on track. The Allies still hold most of the DEI, Japan is having a bit of trouble at Singapore, and Japan seemingly has made a belated decision to go all-out for Luzon.

I don't yet know whether this unorthodox and unexpected opening is part of a well-thought out plan or evidence that the enemy camp is in complete disarray. Since my opponent is an experienced player, I have to err on the side of not underestimating him. But I am baffled.

I'm going to post a series of maps that will illustrate the situation as of January 15, 1942, beginning with the Western DEI region:




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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 6:46:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The "placid" waters of the Western DEI...




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/30/2011 7:00:38 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 6:58:35 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		Some of the economic mods being done on DsBabes baseline are in recognition of the fact that Japan does not face the economic and merchant fleet constraints in-game that she did IRL. I'm sure there are variables and some experienced IJ player with a good sense of that game economy could give you some dates, but going by those discussion (in the scenario design and modding sub-forum) basically he just does not need the oil all that early. And as you are playing a game where an IJ attempt at auto-victory was stipulated going in, well, who knows exactly what and when he plans for the DEI?

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 7:07:22 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Burma: all quiet here.

(Note: I didn't stipulate that the Japanese player should go for an auto victory; rather, I just made an observation that auto victory is a possibility in Scenario Two).




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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 7:14:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The situation in China as of 1/15/42. The Japanese are present in large numbers from Sinyang to Chengchow, and there is a sizeable IJA stack across the river from Hengyang.

The Chinese will try to hold Hengyang and are building an MLR in the forests east of Sian.




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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 7:22:38 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The Allies tried to reclaim lightly-held Amchitka Island, but the Allied commander botched that. Now Japan has reacted by sending in reinforcements covered by Shokaku and Zuikaku. Interesting disclosure of the Japanese player's mindset, I think, that he would divide the KB and that he cares this much about Amchitka.

The Allies will not go for Amchitka in early 1942. Steve will have enough time to manage his defenses and can afford to commit more than I can. What I will try to do over the coming months is to strengthen the Allied garrisons at important bases and out-build airfield facilities so that Amchitka doesn't end up "ruling the skies." At present, Amchitka is a level zero airfield.




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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 7:25:08 PM   
witpqs


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From: Argleton
Status: offline 		Oh! I had thought that an auto-victory attempt was agreed upon, I misunderstood your early posts.

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Post #: 346
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 7:33:39 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I wonder if Steve is under the same impression? I hope not.

Another item to ponder. With Shokaku and Zuikaku in the Aleutians, at present, I doubt Steve is contemplating some humongous "leap forward" in the near future. He'd probably want to marshall all his forces to invade Hawaii, eastern Oz, New Zealand, or the major SoPac Islands. Shokaku and Zuikaku are in position to lend a hand in Hawaii over the coming weeks, but certainly not more distant operations.

I interpret this to mean that no huge auto-victory threatening move is pending for Hawaii in the next week or so, and nothing in SoPac or SWPac for many weeks. The USN carriers are assured of temporary local parity or superiority when they reach SoPac in a week or ten days. So I feel secure in continuing the major emphasis on reinforcing Sumatra.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 7:52:37 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I wonder if Steve is under the same impression? I hope not.



Well, it might have been an impression that I got in your Q-Ball AAR when you discussed contemplating posting an opponent wanted solicitation, and I don't know if Steve was a reader there?

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 8:14:53 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Either way, your opponent is moving along very slowly given the resources at his disposal - and splitting up the KB does potentially mean he'll have to postpone whatever decisive operation he may have planned (if he has one in the works - which I would suspect he must). Even in the normal scenario, the Japanese player can make a bid for India or Australia (and perhaps Hawaii as well - though only one), so here his hesitation is indeed very interesting.

It will make the coming battles, once he does get the gears of war moving again, that much more bloody - but that does continue to work in your favor here, given his drawback after the original bloody noses your gave him.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 8:17:20 PM   
fodder


Posts: 2160
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Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Oh! I had thought that an auto-victory attempt was agreed upon, I misunderstood your early posts.


You are not alone.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Gents,

Pardon me for being very discriminatory here, but I am looking for a top-notch IJ player. I'm warning you, I'm going to be very selective, but I need the Japanese player to be aggressive, very experienced, and with a long, long, stellar track record in the forums (IE, somebody known to be reliable).

This will be Scenario Two (or a similar mod giving Japan a number of advantages to work with).


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I am interested in Scenario Two because I think it gives Japan a pretty good chance of auto victory if handled by a reasonably aggressive and very experienced IJA player.





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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 8:20:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Right. I stated my opinion about Scenario Two. It seems clear (to me) that I wasn't insisting/specifying that my opponent shoot for auto victory.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 8:38:56 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Right. I stated my opinion about Scenario Two. It seems clear (to me) that I wasn't insisting/specifying that my opponent shoot for auto victory.


I just went back and skimmed that long thread in the OW forum. You didn't specify AV, but wanted an opponent who would keep you on your toes from Day 1.

Even though this one isn't going as most do, could we agree you're on your toes?

Aside on Z. and S. being split from the KB (your opponent has not talked of strategic goals in his AAR for many weeks)--does every potential AV target rate the full KB at this stage of the war?

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 3/30/2011 8:39:19 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 9:02:32 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		AV targets in the DEI don't rate full KB as Steve can utilize LBA. I'd say that essentially every AV target in CenPac and SoPac - excepting probably Port Moresby and maybe Luganville - would require full KB. Unless he's willing to count on surprise, or unless he figures he knows the whereabouts of the American carriers, he would want full KB to move on Hawaii, Suva, Pago Pago, Noumea, New Zealand and NE Oz. I'll have my carriers down there in two weeks looking for opportunities.

As always, Bullwinkle, your insights are much appreciated.

P.S. Has a certain momentous ceremony occurred in your life or is it still pending? When is the big day?

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/30/2011 9:03:48 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 9:22:51 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

AV targets in the DEI don't rate full KB as Steve can utilize LBA. I'd say that essentially every AV target in CenPac and SoPac - excepting probably Port Moresby and maybe Luganville - would require full KB. Unless he's willing to count on surprise, or unless he figures he knows the whereabouts of the American carriers, he would want full KB to move on Hawaii, Suva, Pago Pago, Noumea, New Zealand and NE Oz. I'll have my carriers down there in two weeks looking for opportunities.

As always, Bullwinkle, your insights are much appreciated.

P.S. Has a certain momentous ceremony occurred in your life or is it still pending? When is the big day?


Discounting the USN carriers, which he may (I say may, as his AAR is very "log-booky" and not a musing) assume you have stashed based on past performance, are Oz or NZ, to pick two (or really India either at this point in history), really such air powers in the first months where four IJN fleet carriers couldn't handle themselves, perhaps with mini-KB for flankers?

On the other, no, not yet. We applied for a license last Friday, and MN has a five-day waiting period. Still waiting for the #&*@# jeweler to stop going to trade shows and finish her ring. Then we have to find a date for some people to be free to fly in, and far enough out they can get decent air fares. So, I'm guessing June now. At least it'll be nice outside if we do that. Thanks for asking though. I already feel married, I like being married, and I just want to GET married. The first one, in a flippin' cathedral (Duke Chapel), didn't seem like this much logistics. Of course, for that one, I didn't do much more than show up in the monkey suit.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 9:29:06 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Are all you AE friends invited? We would behave....

As for the carrier question, I feel pretty sure the losses Steve took early in the game rattled him enough that he's leary of sticking his assets out too far. He doesn't strike me as a risk taker anyway, so I seriously doubt he'll leap forward without all of his carriers present. In the near term, say the next two weeks, I can't imagine a big move anywhere except the DEI, Port Moresby, or Luganville. In the next month, I can't conceive of anything further than Hawaii, Fiji, New Caledonia, and NE Oz. Those targets are all acceptable to the Allies in that time frame, because in a month the critical Allied logistical chain (Indian troops to Sumatra, American troops to India) will be in full operation.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 9:41:06 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
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Status: offline 		As I Posted last page this strategy isn't making sense to me.

You are in Scenario 2 which is a JFB extravaganza (it is so extreme in that direction I refuse to play it). Why he hasn't manifested a serious thrust ANYWHERE is simply beyond my comprehension. You are five-to-six weeks into the war and his focus should already be apparent.

The failure to attack even basic targets seriously (Singers, Palembang, Timor, etc...) is crazy. Perhaps there is a greater plan at work, however, I don't see it. Splitting the KB (a favorite activity of mine) is dangerous at this point. Your 3-4 CVs could make mincemeat of his dispersed heavies.

Don't know the OOB for the Japanese in Scen 2. What additional starting CV, if any, do they get?


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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/30/2011 10:15:25 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Don't know the OOB for the Japanese in Scen 2. What additional starting CV, if any, do they get?



I don't think they get any extras, but Shinano might, and I say might as I haven't checked, arrive as a Taiho (sp?) class.

However, his TBs are light-years ahead of Devastators, and make a 4-on-4 battle an Allied slaughter. 2-on-4 maybe a different outcome, but how many players are going to send 4 USN CVs to the Aleutians in the first winter?

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/31/2011 3:44:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/16/42

A Japanese invasion of Kendari is underway. This is a step towards taking control of the eastern DEI, but it is good in that Japan is still exhibiting a tendency to seek short, step-by-step progress in this region. At this rate, the Allies still have time - several weeks, maybe a month or more - to attend to Sumatra. This is a good thing.

Eastern DEI: BB Yamashiro, CA Kako, CS Mizuho, and probably other ships are escorting the troop transports that have arrived at Kendari, but haven't begun unloading. Allied bombers sortied in small and ineffective numbers.

Western DEI: I am really enjoying the effort to create the Fortress Palembang. It gives me something proactive to work on - something that requires coordination with most of the rest of the map - so that it's challenging and fulfilling. Oosthaven AV to 421 (forts 2.09); Palembang to 754 (3.08); Singapore 837 (3.59). I'm going to shuffle a few units around in keeping with preparation. Palembang's AV will increase and Oosthaven's will decrease. An Indian brigade prepping for Benkholen will arrive in four or five days. This will offer some protection to that base on the south coast. Question: Can the enemy invade Djambi (west of Palembang) by sea, or is that river too small? If it can be invade by sea, how important is garrisoning it in your opinion? I dont have the troops yet, but I need to think about it). Japan finally took Alor Star. The Allied AV at Port Blair is 60.

India: Another Indian brigade is loading at Colombo. Two British brigades and two Aussie brigades are in the Arabian Sea, probably a good ten days to two weeks from Sumatra. I'm temporarily out of troop transports in India, leaving me unable to bring forward another UK brigade and another Indian brigade. Lots of American aircraft squadrons have begun arriving at Capetown (I set this transfer system up from East Coast at the outset of the game). Most of these are going to India. A few will go directly to Sumatra.

China: No enemy advances yet. The Hengyang garrison is up to 2300 behind 3 forts.

Luzon: The final Clark Field AV will be about 1650 behind four forts with 16000 supplies on hand. That should last awhile.

NoPac: No sign of Shokaku and Zuikaku today.

CenPac: Lex and Sara are heading for Tahiti where they will refuel. Ent and York will leave San Diego tomorrow, also bound for Tahiti. From there, I may leave my carriers in SoPac, or I may move them into the Indian Ocean.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/31/2011 4:43:46 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		If Steve is truly taking a methodical, step-by-step approach in the DEI, it gives the Allies a layer of defenses in advance of Palembang since Singapore, Borneo, and Java remain in Allied hands. So it seems that Steve is currently focusing on what is the "next layer" of targets for him. I don't even detect any reconnaissance beyond that layer. IE, he doesn't seem to be paying any attention to eastern Sumatra at the moment. I'm still not positive whether this is by design or pure neglect.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/31/2011 6:57:54 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		IIRC in a previous game I was forced to re-direct my Sumatra invasion because Djambi was not subject to amphib assault. I would double-check because I can't remember whether I actually tried to invade. I do recall re-routing once I moused over Djambi and saw it has no port. This led to a rather embarrassing meeting with the Emperor, to say the least...

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