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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/14/2011 3:48:16 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
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quote:

With four IJ divisions on Java and Steve apparently fully focused on the DEI, the odds of a major Japanese amphibious operation elsewhere go down (and they were already pretty low).  This is a good time for the Allies to do as much as possible to apply pressure on the perimeter - Burma, China, NoPac, CenPac (Tarawa), SoPac (Pago Pago), and SWPac (if I can get enough PP to pull some things together over the next two months, I think the Allies will reinforce Port Moresby and occupy Milne Bay).


What are the strategic importance of taking Tarawa, Pago Pago, and/or Port Moresby/Milne Bay?? Again, these are not of importance in this war. This game is focused on southern Sumatra and your ability to hold this area and eventually expand from it. After he takes Java, Steve may try to increase the cost for you to move anything else into Sumatra. If I was him, I would steadily tighten the noose around Sumatra and await the arrival of "Mr Tojo" to sweep the skies of Allied fighters. Open up Burma and push in supplies to China since that front seems to be in your favor. Continue your southern push from Burma down towards Bangkok and Malaya. If he can just isolate Sumatra, then you will apply pressure on him from where??

< Message edited by ny59giants -- 7/14/2011 3:49:07 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/14/2011 3:50:39 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I have another important decision to make:  Do the Allies flood Java's airfields with fighters and bombers, hoping for a strike agianst the KB?  Ordinarly, that would be a no-brainer:  Yes!  However, the airfields have low supply and are mostly small, so that strikes might be weak, ineffective, and costly against a powerful KB cap.  That, in turn, would weaken the more important strikes (from large, well-supplied airfields) when the Japanese come for Sumatra.  As you probably can sense, I'm leaning towards conserving my airforce for the "real thing" (plus the occasional strikes of opportunity).

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/14/2011 4:02:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		In reply to NYGiants post, the most important theaters of action are Sumatra, Burma, China and NoPac.  Those are getting most Allied attention and resources.

The Allies do have forces elsewhere that are not currently in position to lend a hand in these theaters.  Is it better to take the additional time needed to move them from their locations to one of these theaters, or to strike Japan in tender areas that, while not as critical, still hurt Japan and throw the enemy commander-in-chief off balance?

For instance, I have a bunch of restricted units on Australia's east coast.  One possible use of my scarce political points is to accumulate enough to purchase these units.  Where do they go from there?  Reinforce Sumatra?  Occupy Port Moresby and Milne Bay in Greater strength?  Invade Timor?  Invade New Caledonia?  Those are all possiblities, but my assessment of ship availability and opportunity tells me that New Guinea is a good use.  The risks there are low, but it would go a long way toward establishing an Allied outpose on what is ordinarily the Japanese MLR.  If the Allies hold Sumatra, New Guinea is totally irrelevant.  But if the Allies should lose Sumatra, New Guinea becomes very relevant.  At that point, the Allies will be hurting a bit and will still face a long fight against Japan.  Holding New Guinea (and the Gilberts) would mean the Allies had a head start.

I don't want to put all of my assets into one investment (Sumatra).  If that were done, the Allies would risk a blockade imposed by the KB, with the Allied garrison fixed in place and few assets to advance elsewhere.  But if the Allies retain fighting forces in a variety of places, and use those forces to make advances while the enemy focues on the DEI, the Allies will (1) keep the enemy off balance (2) divert forces and thus dulute Japan's strength in the DEI, and (3) take territory that will be useful, either immediately (Burma and NoPac) or under a worst case scenario (New Guinea and the Gilberts).

Does that makie sense?  Is my focus askew? 

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/14/2011 5:08:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		While the Allies have enjoyed a remarkable string of successes so far, the game remains very tense and exciting.  That's because the Allies have pushed the envelope very far, so there remains a chance that it could burst at the seems, and the Allies left in terrible shape.

The best way I know to minimize the chances of such a calamity is to keep pushing the envelope.  The goal is to keep Steve reeling so that he's never able to put together the kind of victory or victories needed to cause the seems of the bulging envelope to burst.

That's what Nemo was able to accomplish in his game vs. One-Eyed-Jacks.  Nemo kept punching until Japan, staggering under the weight of accumulated defeat and misfortune, surrendered meekly.

In my game with Steve, he's not in quite as bad a position and he shows absolutely no signs of quitting.  So I've got to keep stuffing more and more into the envelope, hoping it ends badly for him rather than me.  It's great fun!

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/14/2011 5:09:18 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/14/2011 6:53:58 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/16/42
 
Missed Chances/Made Chances?:  The Japanese are landing three-plus divisions (52, Imperail Guard, 6th Tanks) at Semereng.  The armada is protected in-hex by BBs Mutsu and Nagato, witih the carriers stationed to the northeast.  The Allies might have been able to use their carriers to orchestrate a very nice cross-island ambush of the invasion force at a save distance.  But my carriers are a bit out of position as I had already decided to fight another day (a cost of commiting my reserves early in this developing battle).  The Allied carriers are about south of Padang, Sumatra, at the moment, and are thus in position to pursue another possibility.  A large number of Japanese merchants are exiting the Malacca Straits heading for Rangoon (or possibly to counterinvade Tavoy or Moulmein).  I have BB Revenge and CAs Dosetshire and Portland at Moulmein to handle things, but I may slip my carriers behind the merchants to finish them off.  The Allies are trying hard to whittle down the number of Japanese transports, and thrwarting early enemy efforts to address the developing crisis in Burma would also be good.

DEI:  The Allies will use B-17s to try to slow down the enemy advance across Java.  Japan can easily overwhelm the defenses, which were stripped months ago to reinforce Sumatra, but the Allies can slow this down considerably so that Sumatra might be safe well into June.  The Allies had to hold back a few transport TFs from heading into Oosthaven due tot he proxmimity of the KB, but two TFs have completed unloading a large American CD unit and an RAF base force.

China:  A Chinese army roughed up an already shattered IJ army outside of Kukong, once again mauling 104th Division.  This Chinese stack will now retire back through Kanhsien towards Changsha.  The Chinese army at Changsha/Kweilin will now sally forth to the northeast to try to catch and bludgeon the newly arrived and full-strength 40th Div.  Up at the Loyang sector, another Chinese stack will catch a depleted IJ army if it doesn't bug out within two days.

Burma:  The Allied expeditionary army at Moulmein might well be strong enough to recapture Rangoon if the Allies can stop Japan from reinforcing that base by sea.  If the Allies succeed in reclaiming Rangoon, they don't intend to withdraw.  Japan won't be able to mount a credible campaign against Rangoon until Sumatra falls (if ever), and by then it will be too late for Japan in Burma. 

NoPac:  It appears quiet up here, except for regular bombing raids.  Is it possible that Steve is temporarily satisfied with the status quo, having accomplished reinforcing a stout MLR south of Paramushiro and Onnekotan?  The Allies still expect to lose these two bases "any day," but just in case Japan is truly putting this on the backburner, the Allies will begin to organize the troops and ships to strongly reinforce Paramushiro.  This operation would probably include CV Wasp (and CVE Long Island if shie's on the map).  So, if Japan dallies for another four or five weeks, the Allies might decide that keeping these two islands is a possibility.

CenPac:  The Tarawa invasion TFs arrive at Pearl in about two or three days.  It will take a few days to unloading and then combat load, so the invasion force will likely depart Pearl in about a week.  D-Day in about 20 days, I think.  BBs Warspite and Colorada are already at Pearl.

SoPac:  Many of the transports have finished unloading and depart Pago Pago tonight.  No sign of imminent IJ reinforcement efforts.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/14/2011 8:07:24 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Goodness knows I've made alot of small mistakes and miscalculations in the game, with a few biggies thrown in to boot, but here's a couple of examples of continengcy planning that may pay off nicely:

1)  The decision to proceed with the invasion of Moulmein was made just over a week ago.  The decision to preposition the troops and ships was made about two weeks ago.  But the thought first occurred many weeks ago as 27th USA Div. was aboard transports heading to the IO from Capetown.  As a result, 27th Div. is 39% prepped for Rangoon, which probably beats anything Japan has there.

2)  The decision to proceed with the Tarawa invasion was made weeks ago, so that the prep assignment was made the minute 32nd Div. arrived as reinforcements at San Francisco.  32nd Div. is about three days out of Pearl, with prep at 29%.  By the time of the invasion, prep should be near 50%.  Many of the other Tarawa-bound units are 100% prepped.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/14/2011 8:11:34 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Chipping away at his merchants & possibly nailing some surface forces acting as escorts - all in the name of making Burma hotter for him than it already is, is more than worthwhile in my opinion. Again, you hit him where the KB can't interfere & it serves your purpose admirably.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/14/2011 8:25:32 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The decision has been made and orders issued the the Allied carrier TFs:

1)  Saratoga to remain on station south of Sumatra.

2)  Indomitable and Hermes to continue on to Colombo to replenish.

3)  Formidable, Illustrious, Hornet, Yorktown, Enterprise, and Lexington to proceed WNW to the Andaman Sea to be in position to strike enemy shipping.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/14/2011 9:11:22 PM   
ny59giants


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Status: offline 		Are you using Tracker at all?? It might help you monitor the supply usage in southern Sumatra and help you plan ahead. Do you known how long you could survive without any external input of supply in this area??

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/14/2011 9:28:55 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I never could figure out how to load Tracker, much less use it.  So, no, I'm not privy to that information.  I do have more than 300k supplies in Sumatra, mostly at Palembang.  With the supply generated by Palembang, I believe the Allies are in good shape.  Supply usage is going to be tapering off as the Allies are maxing out on airfield levels now.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/15/2011 2:34:15 AM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		You might really be able to land another major blow with your preparations. Good Luck.


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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/15/2011 6:44:13 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		He is making another unprotected move in the same zip code of the Andaman Islands battle. I concur that this presents another golden opportunity to hit Chez where it hurts. Good hunting!

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/15/2011 7:52:16 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		(Maybe). In reply to NY59giants question about the need to take SoPac islands.

Often you need to hold a base to take it away from your enemy, they may not lead anywhere for you but give them a stepping stone for future action.
If you can get some of them cheaply while your opponent is busy elsewhere it could be good value.  It may also cause a reaction which opens a small door elsewhere. IFFFF the occupation of Tarawa saw the IJN rush across map to counter, allowing a smoother entry into Sumatra you'd be praised for your planning.

Also

Having a look at other AAR, and messing with the AI in the DEI corner of the map, you often get into a step by step slogging match into an area full of large airbases and defensible terrain. Going through the Central Pacific and taking large steps between islands gets you into the Marianas with need for fewer invasions and battles. This can be made easier with the assistance of a crediblle threat in the SEAC/DEI area drawing away the IJN,  maybe the resources are not available in 5/42 but grabbing what terrain you can will help for the time when Essex & Hellcat arrives in mid 43. I suppose a 1942 offensive is possible in the SEA/DEI wheras you have to wait another year for CENPAC.


< Message edited by JeffK -- 7/15/2011 10:09:18 AM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/15/2011 11:15:29 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/17/42
 
Java:  The Japanese armada remains in place - transports unloading at Semereng, carrier TFs to the northeast.

Sumatra:  A Japanese DD TF sank a handful of ML operating just north of Oosthaven, then met an RN CL/DD TF in port with neither side taking meaningful damage.  Three Allied BB TFs are on patrol to the SW in close company with Saratoga.  Palembang airfield maxed out at level seven a few weeks ago, so engineers are now focused entirely on forts, which are 5.65.  Steve keeps up minor night bombing raids.  I don't like night raids as they seem overpowered, but I'll bide my time and repay him at some point.

Bay of Bengal:  Two IJ transport TFs totaling at least 20 ships are about two days out of Rangoon.  The Allies will impose a blockade using one or both combat TFs.   The combat ships are meant to rough up the transports and prevent supply from reaching Rangoon.  The Allied carriers, which are south of Sabang now, will close from the rear to ensure that none of these ships make it back to Singapore.  27th Div., 754 Tanks, and 14 UK Bde are about five to six days out of Rangoon.  Moulmein airfield is still shut down due to partisan activity during IJ occupation.  Thus, Allied fighters can't fly CAP.  Fortunately, this operation caught Japan with its pants down (as expected), so that base force personnel and/or supply problems have seriously limited the number of enemy aircraft flying from Rangoon and Bangkok.  In fact, no Allied ships have been damaged - a state of affairs I'd like to maintain.

China:  The Chinese will sock two small and weak IJ forces tomorrow while other Chinese troops are getting into position to deal with the two fresh IJ divisions - 40th east of Changsha and 3rd north of Sinyang. 

NoPac:  Subs and Netties claimed a PC and xAK at Paramushiro.  Wasp arrives at Balboa in 24 days, so if conditions remain static, the Allies could be in position to assert control of the LOC from the Aluetians to Para in about seven weeks.

CenPac:  An IJ sub heavily damaged an AP north of Pearl (drat, that's a good ship!), thus giving Steve intel that the Allies have troop transports in CenPac.  The transports will begin arriving at PH tonight with the balance tomorrow night.  D-Day at Tarawa in about 15 to 20 days.

SoPac:  Everything remains quiet at Pago Pago.  Most transports have departed.  The combat TF will remain at PP another day or two to cover the few remaining ships still unloading.  Final Allied AV here is 368.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/15/2011 1:24:12 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Your Chinese troops are gaining real experience with these manuevers - that's a very bad thing for your opponent as things move forward into 1943 - especially if you're able to start moving meaningful levels of supply up there as well.

I'm looking forward to moves at Rangoon - he's in a very bad position & more likely doesn't know it. This is about to be a repeat of the Pt. Blair fiasco for him, but he's going to lose Rangoon on top of it as well. It is a shame that more forces aren't available for you at this point (I bet allied command would have been screaming for more assets to take advantage of Japanese weakness if this had happened historically).

And if Chaz realizes that something may be up in the Pacific, he really doesn't have anything meaningful he can throw your way without curtailing operations in the very areas that he's already commited to - he is looking at a menu of bad & worse choices, and even if he doesn't choose, he's still in trouble.

Good luck & good hunting!

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/15/2011 5:51:17 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		From his perspective this is going to be very BAD...



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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/15/2011 6:23:00 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The operation to interdict and destroy enemy shipping bound for Rangoon has mutliple complex layers - just another example of the wondrous complexities and detail of AE:

1)  The most important thing is to halt enemy supplies (and possibly some reinforcements) reaching Rangoon.
2)  The second most important thing is to destroy those ships before they can retire to safety in the Malacca Straits.
3)  The downside is that the Allies reveal the location of carriers, thereby giving Japan some latitude to do things elsewhere.  Also, any missions flown will mean the carriers will have to replenish at Colombo.  Not a big deal, since they were headed there anyhow.
4)  There's a chance that Steve can get his bombers to fly missions from Rangoon or Bangkok and could clobber the Allied combat ships.  Losing Revenge, Dorsetshire or Portland to serious damage or destruction would be a major blow.

But halting the flow of supplies to Rangoon is critical IMO.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/15/2011 8:00:57 PM   
ny59giants


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quote:

any missions flown will mean the carriers will have to replenish at Colombo


You have plenty of ships that can convert to AKEs (or use AEs), besides those you have at game start. Move about 6 of the largest to the IO. Have them come into Port Blair and disband (I think they can just remain in a Replenishment TF) the same turn you move your CV TF in to replenish their sorties. Afterwards, the AKEs can move back to Colombo to reload supplies and reposition themselves about 1/3 the distance between Port Blair and Colombo to be used again if needed.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/16/2011 8:34:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/18/42
 
Bay of Bengal:  A satisfying day for the Allies as the Revenge TF reacts and intercepts a large enemy transport TF bound for Tavoy.  The Allied ships sink 11 xAK, 12xAKL and an SC and destroy 250 squads.  It appears that there is a second TF bound for Rangoon.  A second Allied TF is on patrol at the mouth of the river, so I hope the door is shut tight.  With a good bit of the enemy already liquidated, most of the Allied carriers, which I don't think were sighted, have been ordered to replenish at Colombo, just two or three days distant.  Enterprise and Yorktown will continue to a point west of Port Blair to handle any further opportunities.

Burma:  The Burma Army crossed the river from Schwebo and evicted an IJ engineering unit from Mandalay.  tomorrow, two Chinese divisions will reach the hex adjacent to Lashio.  And tomorrow, the main Allied spearhead (27th USA Div. and 14th UK Bde.) will reach the hex adjacent to Rangoon.  Japan has a crisis in Burma.

China:  Chinese stacks mauled small IJ units in three or four places.

DEI:  The Japanese took Semereng in strength (much more strength than needed to conquer now-vacant Java).  The KB is just north of Semereng in the Java Sea.  Two IJN DMS were pummeled by Oosthaven's CD guns.  I don't know if the ships were merely unlucky or serving as scouting kamikazees.  Palembnag forts to 5.69 and growing at a rate of .04 per day.  That's very good.

CenPac:  The Tarawa TFs will all be at Pearl tonight.  Unloading and re-loading might take four days.

SoPac:  A small IJ CL/DD force flagged by Yubari met a stout Allied TF flagged by Pensacola and San Francisco under the command of a 70/71 officer....but the Japanese gave better than they took.  Three small USN warships were moderately damaged and will retire to Pearl.  The Japanese didn't penetrate, though, so the handful of remaining merchants at PP weren't touched.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/16/2011 9:21:56 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		He must have expected you to react with carriers against his landings on Java - and use the diversion there to cover his reinforcement convoys into Burma. Once again, he's reacting in exactly the wrong places with the wrong assets.

I would keep an eye on Oosthaven, I don't know if that was a mistake or the first move towards a real landing there - using the troops he just dropped in Java (since he has to do something with that force). Your carriers, once they've replenished, should be in a good position to continue to cover your burgeoning Burma offensive & also react if he does make the move to Sumatra.

Good luck with the second convoy - though if I was him, I'd pull them back as quickly as possible.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/16/2011 10:12:09 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		I'd bet he was probing for mines and CD gun strength at Oosthaven.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/17/2011 2:47:00 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/19/42
 
Bay of Bengal:  Allied combat ships rough up a smaller IJ transport TF, probably sinking 4 xAK, 2 PB and an SC.  Steve says all these ships had been given orders to head to Moulmein back before the Allied invasion.  That doesn't sound quite right to me - why would he send troops to vacant Moulmein when Rangoon was much more important?  Not sure whether he's dissembling here.  All ships are retiring to Colombo to replenish, except the Ent/York TF which remains on patrol west of Port Blair "just in case" Steve tries something new.

Burma:  Two IJ units have moved to the hex east of Rangoon, where 450 Allied AV are sitting.  The IJ force is pretty weak, so the Allies expect to repulse them tomorrow and to then move into Rangoon shortly thereafter.

DEI: The massive Semereng invasion armada is breaking up and moving off to the NE.  It will be a week or weeks or longer before Steve is ready to orchestrate his next move.  By then, the Allied carriers will be replenished and back on station.

Pago Pago:  SigInt that 87th Nav Guard is aboard a maru bound for Pago Pago.  The Allies are very, very pleased that Japan is reinforcing a rather hopeless situation.

Pearl Harbor:  The troops have unloaded and are switching from strategic to combat modes.  Two TFs east of Pearl at other bases are loading a Marine RCT and a tank unit.  D-Day at Tarawa in 20 days or less.

(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 1222
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/17/2011 10:52:54 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/20/42
 
Burma:  The Allied army at Pegu threw back an IJ regiment and artillery unit, but the odds weren't as one-sided as I had expected.  Rangoon isn't stronlgy defended - perhaps the equivalent of three poorly supplied regiments - but with the urban bonus it might be tough.  At Mandalay tomorrow, the Burma army will be in action against a newly arrived IJ unit - probably a poorly supplied infantry regiment.  150 Chinese AV will arrive at Lashio in a day or two, facing yet another regiment.

Bay of Bengal:  The Allied navy continues to mop up scattered weak opposition.  Two carrier TFs have already replenished and refueled at Colombo and depart tomorrow - one to replace Ent/York on patrol west of Port Blair (while those two CVs make for Colombo) and the other to join Saratoga and Hornet south of Sumatra.  Steve is scrambling to get aircraft and base forces to Bangkok and Rangoon.

Sumatra:  Quiet at the moment.

Java:  KB still just NE of Semereng.

Pago Pago:  The Japanese reinforcements arrive tomorrow or the following day.  The recent Allied reinforcement of this island should come as a rude surprise.

Tarawa Invasion:  The troops at Pearl begin loading tomorrow.  The force shall include 193 Tanks, 8th Marines, 102 Combat Engineers, 32nd Div., 4th Field Artillery, 10th Sea Bees, 119 USAAF Base Force.  9th Marines is also available, though I've got to carefully weigh force allocation to make sure I have enough supply.  Also, 138 RCT is prepped for Ocean Island.  If there are transports to spare (unlikely), it comes too.  The Allies will use alot of AP and AK, so unloading should be relatively efficient.

NoPac:  Enemy TF well east of the Kuriles possbily raiding the Aluetians.  The Tennessee/Houston TF is in the vicinity.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1223
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/17/2011 11:05:53 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Steve hasn't tried an air raid against Palembang or Oosthaven in months.  I'm pretty sure he's hoarding his fighters for training purposes after the shellackings he took over Singapore early in the year.  This tells me that he might well be reading Nemo's "Salutations" AAR in which he (Nemo) opined as to how One-Eyed might best deal with a Fortress Sumatra.

There's no question now that it will take Japan well into July or later to deal with Sumatra, and it's possible that Palembang won't be vanquished.  It should be a titanic battle, though.

In the meantime, the Allies have many effective operations underway (Burma, China, Pago Pago, Kuriles), more about to get underway (Tarawa and possibly Ocean Island), some in mind mid term (reinforcing Paramushiro, if conditions permit, and invading Baker Island), and distant term (invasion of Mili and Nauru, reinforcement and occupation of Port Moresby, Milne Bay and associated islands).

The main brake on Allied activity continues to be political points.  For instance, I'd proceed with New Guinea immediately if I could afford to buy the Aussie units needed, but Paramushiro has a much higher priority unless and until Steve allocates the forces to make such an operation infeasible.

The overall feeling is that the Allies know what they want to do and when they want to do it (subject of course to modifications as conditions warrant).  The Battle of Sumatra is going to be tense and critical, but the Allies are effectively forcing the enemy to allocate assets elsewhere or face dire results.

So, overall I'm pleased.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1224
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/17/2011 2:54:00 PM   
princep01

 

Posts: 943
Joined: 8/7/2006
From: Texas
Status: offline 		Canoe, doesn't the intervention of Chinese troops into Burma activate some sort of reinforcement for the IJA? Memory may fail me here, but I think that the IJA receives a couple of relatively poorly trained Burmese divisions or some such. It is not an insubstantial reinforcement. That may be what is showing up in Mandalay. May want to check this out in the manual.

Your bold move into Burma is already paying nice dividends. Are you able to reinforce and make this a threat beyond cutting off the regiments in Burma....like a threat to Bangkok or even Singapore? Here we are in May 42 and you have him dancing to your tune(s).....what a puppeteer you are, sir:)!

I am confused by your opponent's willingness to expose the location of the KB w/o compensatory action that it is directly supporting. Is it actually supporting the Java landing or some other offensive action or is it (as it seems) just bubbling about as some kind of general deterent to Allied tactical strikes against his shipping in the area? If the latter, then you have achieved yet another strategic victory as knowing its whereabouts allows you something of a free hand elsewhere....like the eastern Pacific. I don't understand his strategy here at all. Then again, I get made the fool all the time in this game.

As to Pago-Pago...he's throwing good money after bad in classic style. Let him reap the whirlwind.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1225
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/17/2011 3:26:03 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		It is interesting to see how the committment of the Allied CVs too early is now having repercussions. As I see it 1 CV is isolated down south, 4 are now replenishing and 2 more are hovering in the region of Rangoon ready to kill transports if they proceed to push the landing. That's your primary asset of strategic decision split into three groups, none of which is mutually supporting, because of replenishment needs.

Your opponent won't take advantage of this but were he more capable he could easily cover the landings in Java with LBA and free his carriers to pin one element of your CV forces and anihilate it. Were I in his shoes once you had made that strike I would have pursued with KB, pushing the Allied CVs back and into either Colombo or Australia. This would have made the fight in Java/sumatra an LBA vs LBA affair ( since there are few Allied players who would have unloaded their CV-based planes whilst running pell-mell from a rampaging combined KB) and been a chase that the Japanese KB could probably have won as it would have more recently refuelled than the Allies ( KB should have topped up its tanks in Southern Borneo while the Allies would have had to transit from western Oz/Ceylon and thus should have less fuel to expend in the chase ).

Assuming 1 week to read Perth or Ceylon and refuel and 1 week to return to the fray that would give 2 weeks of freedom to Japanese forces in-theatre and in 2 weeks a competent player could arrange multiple multi-Corps amphibious invasions covered by LBA throughout the whole DEI/Burma theatre.


Of course you fit the plan to the opponent and your opponent is now trying to be methodical but still miscalculating and losing far more force than he should. The primary question now, for you, is, I believe, how you phase your remaining operations. Do you rush ahead now or give him the time and space he needs to fit the noose over his own neck by committing his reserves to Burma and Java before you pull the trigger elsewhere.


One question: Why do you have a single CV hanging around south of Java? It is too small a force to tackle any sizeable force the IJN might commit but is enough of a force to be worth hunting down ( which, admittedly, your opponent hasn't shown capable of doing ). I am just wondering what the rationale is in having an isolated force which is too small to meaningfully impede the enemy but sufficiently valuable to be a significant loss hanging around so near to an active theatre. It seems like there's a lot of downside but not real upside to that disposition. Could you post a map of CV positions? I'm really very curious about them for a number of reasons:
1. They are your strategic reserve.
2. They are your primary means of strategic decision at this point in time.
3. Your handling of them recently has garnered you a lot of kills but I'm concerned that some players could use such play to lay traps for you and that your search for kills at the expense of strategic freedom of action could be costly.
4. If we were ever to play this sort of situation is precisely what I'd seek to create and then disembowel you over. Honestly, if I saw this in a game I'd think this was the perfect situation for Japan to make a great strategic leap forward. Your forces are dispersed, not mutually supporting, have frittered away their combat potential for the next week or more and there's a potential for pinning your force near Rangoon against the Indian coastline east of Ceylon and using the bulk of the island to use KB to block your run westward while land-based Netties launch attritional raids vs just one small group of your CVs. I'd really be looking at taking out half of your CV force over the next week ( especially since I would figure your CVs hitting the force near Rangoon would be relatively low on fuel and thus not capable of making a lot of high speed dashes without refuelling in either Southern India or Ceylon - which would let me pin and destroy them). FWIW though I don't think you need to worry about that in this game but, as I said, I think your challenge now is to prep for the next game. This one has been over for months as a going concern.


Princep,
I think those IJA Militia Divisions are activated if the Chinese move into Vietnam ( French IndoChina ). The IJA doesnt' get anything if they move into Burma. It may well be time to consider a push by the Chinese out of China into Vietnam in order to link up with British and Indian troops moving down into Thailand from Burma. I'm a big fan of an Allied land corridor via Thailand and Vietnam into southern China.

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 7/17/2011 3:29:04 PM >

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to princep01)
Post #: 1226
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/17/2011 4:17:59 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Nemo - I agree with some of your analysis. Against a more aggressive & more psychologically prepared player, splitting up the allied carrier forces at this time would invite disaster. In this instance, Chaz is still unaware of the exact location of the allied forces (as they did not reveal themselves in the most recent action - I believe only SCTF were involved).

For Chaz to try to drive back into the Bay of Bengal or south of Sumatra without have much idea of what he is facing (and Canoe has shown a beguiling ability to have this forces in the right place at the right time to inflict maximum damage), he'd be putting his sole remaining mobile asset, the KB in harm's way without knowing what he'd be getting in return.

As the climatic battle approaches, I would recommend that Canoe concentrate his forces again & make preparations for alternative re-provisioning (the AKE & AE idea above seems like a good one to me). Chaz also doesn't seem to have the ability or the inclination to properly constitute of 3-Dimensional threat (surface, carrier & LBA) in actions thus far - and I don't know if this ability will suddenly manifest itself, in light of the multiple threats he is currently having to deal with.

He's got too many hotspots & doesn't seem to be able to close out any of them to better concentrate on the main area - losing over 20 transports in an attempt to reinforce his Burma position, again without gauging the level of threat by allied forces on the SLOCs is a sign of lack of attention & consideration in his movements. Even if Canoe is unable to completely dislodge the Japanese from Burma, they've suffered yet another setback and are now fighting for positions they should instead be using for offensive power projection against the allies in the Bay of Bengal.

Of course, everything else is a bit of sideshow at this point, because the allies lack the PPs and forces to create a true strategic offensive threat (although Canoe is doing a great job bluffing here) - but that will certainly change as additional forces and especially carriers are available to support operations elsewhere.

Unless Chaz can truly close the deal on Sumatra, and do so without taking massive losses to his surface and LBA assets, Canoe will be in a position, once more forces are available, to turn any number of the current sideshow operations into major offensive jumping-off points.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 1227
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/17/2011 4:35:07 PM   
Miller


Posts: 2226
Joined: 9/14/2004
From: Ashington, England.
Status: offline 		If I was Chez I would be hunting high and low for the Allied CVs with the KB, not having it standing off Java covering a pointless invasion. Its about the only advantage he has over you in the game now.

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 1228
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/17/2011 4:57:24 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Between an AKE, a fleet HQ and building up the port with those marvelous Allied engineers, you might make Cocos Island a serviceable pit stop (I don't know its starting and max port levels). If nothing else, the need to retire to Ceylon after every CV strike points out a problem best addressed before the big show if possible.

_____________________________


(in reply to Miller)
Post #: 1229
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/17/2011 4:57:56 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		I disagree a bit with Miller's thought above. Chez must DO something and truly needs to be three dimensional at this point.

The KB is his sole remaining major asset but he has to be cautious with it due to Dan's concentration of CVs. If battle does occur it will be very bloody for BOTH sides and that does not benefit Chez whatsoever. He needs to isolate or trap a portion of the Allied Fleet without significant loss to his forces. With Dan's playing and skills he will have a very difficult time doing this.

< Message edited by John 3rd -- 7/17/2011 4:59:05 PM >

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(in reply to Miller)
Post #: 1230
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