Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
Can you outline the weaknesses of the Palembang gambit? I assume it includes isolation and eventual destruction of the Allied forces committed and/or loss of India. However, IMHO neither option is particularly easy for Japan and there is still the danger of destruction of the facilities upon capture.

quote:

ORIGINAL: princep01

I have followed your AARs carefully for a number of reasons...what has really impressed me in comparing your game with Q-Ball and this one is that you adopted what appears to me to be a more aggressive tactical game in the early going....CR, my question is what caused this change (if you consider it a change)? Did the lessons gleaned from your game with Q-Ball have a significant effect on your play this time. I've never played a Scenario 2 game against Japan. Was the Q-Ball game your first Senario2 game?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Fortress Sumatra Unveiled - A detailed look at how a casual comment prompts a little offensive stratagem that turns into the defining campaing of the war.

12/08/41:  I comment in my AAR that I intend to make my DEI stands at Singapore and Soerabaja, leading Nemo to chime in:  "Singapore and Soerabaja?  Deathtraps both of them."  Nemo recommends Palembang, with some explanation why defending it makes sense.

12/11/41:  Having acted on Nemo's suggestion, the Allies immediately begin transferring various Dutch units to Sumatra - many of these small units from far-flung outposts retrieved by patrol aircraft.  My comment:  "It's fun.  I just hope it proves effective - and I wish I had started on turn one..."

12/13/41:  Allied AV at Palembang already up to 300, though these are almost entirely low quality Dutch and Indian units.

12/23/41:  AV up to 470, including parts of some units at Singapore (though I fully intend to defend Singers, I do extract some cadres to beef up Sumatra).

12/26/41:  AV up to 515; I note:  "I am not comfortable going all-in" by stripping India to defend Palembang.  At this point I'm thinking of Palembang as a speed bump rather than a fortress.

12/29/41:  AV to 560; first unit (Indian brigade) arrives at Oosthaven, bringing its AV to 100.

01/02/42:  AV to 624, forts two.

01/05/42:  Note that the Allies are moving some CD guns to Sumatra.

01/11/42:  "Incresingly inclined to make a big p lay in Sumatra."  Decide to send first RCT from Americal Division to Capetown.

01/12/42:  "...the Allies are beginning to getthe notion that a forward defense is a good idea."  This notion was prompted in part by SigInt that 33rd IJA Division is aboard a maru bound for Luzon, convincing me (1) that Steve is not sure what he wishes to do, since previous SigInt showed it bound elsewhere; and (2) that Steve may be focusing on Luzon before the DEI.  This analysis and decision is right on and probably the most important of the war.

01/13/42:   "After mulling over things the Allis have committed fully to Fortress Palembang given what we're seeing from the enemy."  Now the Allies seriously begin the long process of sending India troops to Sumatra with the goal of strengthening additional key bases like Benkolen and Padang.

01/16/42:  Palembang AV/(Forts):  754 (3.08); Oosthaven:  421 (2.09).  [Note that Benkolen, Padang, and interior bases are still wide open at this late date.]

02/02/42:  99th Indian Bde. lands at Padang.

02/05/42:  Palembang 1179 (3.31); Oosthaven 632 (2.82); Benkolen 106 (1.50); Padang 136 (2.12); Djambi 24; Prabaemolith 164 (2.06).

02/11/42:  Allied LBA from Java sinks CVL Shoho in Java Sea.

02/26/42:  CVLs Zuiho and Ryujo sunk by Allied carriers, which just have reached theater, during invasion of Dempasar.

03/05/42:  Palembang 1399 (4.01); Oosthaven 1040 (3.18); Benkolen 361 (2.62); Padang 142 (2.56); Djambi 75 (2.13); Prabaemolith 181 (2.99).

03/28/42:  Allies successfully invade Paramushiro Jima and Onnekotan Jima, opening up a new front that demands Steve's attention.

03/31/42:  Allies successfully invade Sabang, opening up a new front that demands Steve's attention.  Sometime in March or early April, the Allies occupy and begin to build Cocos Island, a base that guards the southern approaches to Sumatra.  Cocos in Allied hands is huge.

04/02/42:  Singapore falls.   This, I figure, means the poo is about to hit the fan.  The Allies had elected to defend Singapore as strongly as possible, knowing that Japan wouldn't move on India until that impediment had been removed.  IE, Singapore brought me great peace of mind.

04/13 and 14/42:  Battle of the Andamans Sea:  Allied carriers sink BBs Ise and Haruna and probably CA Kako; BB Kongo is damaged.

05/11/42:  Allies successfully invade Moulmein, leading to seige of Rangoon.  That siege will ultimately fail, but ties up additional Japanese troops and ships for quite some time to come.  For instance, the KB spends a week in the Bay of Bengal in late May just covering transport TFs bound for Rangoon.

05/31/42:  Chinese wrap up intense six week operation that results in seven IJA divisions getting whacked.  The situation is serious enough that (I think) Steve is forced to commit additional troops to China to prevent a complete meltdown.

06/04/42:  Allies successfully invade Tarawa, followed soon thereafter by Makin, Ocean, Nauru, and Tabitueua.  In my opinion this isn't a really important theater, so I am going to be caught by surprise (but will be utterly delighted) at how important my opponent deems it.

06/06/42: Oosthaven airfield reaches level nine.  Part of the KB sighted near Borneo - I figure these ships are bound for Pago Pago or Tarawa.

06/10/42:  "As we've discussed, Jpaan still has a chance to isolate, concentrate, and hammer Sumatra, though the ticking clock isn't Japan's friend."

06/13/42:  Palembang 1613 (6.55); Oosthaven 1609 (5.70); Benkolen 507 (4.50); Padang 243 (3.26).

06/24/42:  Batavia falls. Merak will fall on 07/02.  Surely this will allow Japan to fully attend to Sumatra, right?

06/26/42:  Allies successfully invade Baker Island.

06/27/42:  First Naval Battle of Oosthaven:  Japan loses BB Mutsu and CA Chokai; Allies lose BB New Mexico and CA Astoria.

06/29/42:  Holy cow!  Yamato, Hyuga, Yamashiro, CAs Furutaka, Tone, and CVs Hiyo and Junyo committed around Pago Pago.  Since April, Japan has been committing major resources to this "Little Vietnam" campaign.  Hiei has also been here for extended periods.

07/05/42:  Enemy carriers take position NE of Tarawa, where they are to remain for the next seven weeks, more or less, with more carriers to show up.

07/07/42:  Second Battle of Oosthaven:  Allies lose Mississippi, Resolution, Prince of Wales and Exeter.  Japan loses Fuso, Mogami, Mikuma, and Suzuya.

07/21/42:  CVs Hiryu and Akagi sunk in the Battle of Cocos Island.

07/24/42:  Marine raiders occupy Siberot Island, just offshore from Padang.

07/28/42:  Fast transport convoys begin prepositioning supply at islands north of Oosthaven.  The Allies are no longer purely on the defensive in the DEI.

07/30/42:  Engineers arrive at Ndeni in the Santa Cruz Island, soon to be followed by about 190 AV of infantry.

07/31/42:  July also featured a number of IJ air raids vs. various bases in Sumatra.  Each of these was an Allied victory, and some decisively so.  Steve isn't drawing any comfort from the air war.  In late July, the Allies implement a major operation to reinforce and resupply Paramushiro Jima.  This is expensive, but draws BB Kongo in response.

08/01/42:  Land campaign for Padang begins, though Japan doesn't commit enough to have a decent chance here (at least through the end of August).  The Allies reinforce.

08/06/42:  First Allied infantry land at Billiton Island, north of Oosthaven.  More will follow at Toboali and Singkep over the coming weeks.

08/08/42:  The Allies announce a major change of plans.  Since it does not seem likely that Japan will be invading Sumatra, the Allies don't need to keep in reserve the major force that was to form the core of a counter-invasion to follow.  The Allies will isntead immediately begin transferring as many units as possible from India and Ceylon to Sumatra and the bases to the north.

08/15/42:  For several weeks in August, massed IJN carriers in CenPac ravage a variety of Allied shipping, mostly low value, around Tarawa and vicinity.  The Allies take some lumps, including losing CL Trenton, but having the majority of Japanese naval power centered here is too good to  be true.

08/25/42:  Second Paramushiro resupply and reinforcement operation underway with much more success than the first.

08/26/42:  Engineers arrive at Port Moresby and Milne Bay undetected, with major reinforcements about two weeks away.  If the Allies succeed in garrisoning and building these bases, the Japanese will have a new worry.  These bases to the west, plus Ndeni to the east, suddenly restrict the very long IJ LOC between Rabaul to the nroth and New Caledonia/Fiji/Savaii Island to the south and east.

08/28/42:  Palembang 1619 (8.31); Oosthaven 1810 (8.13); Benkolen 533 (5.22); Padang 780 (3.84); Djambi 127 (3.38); Prabaemolith 81 (3.39); and Lahat 36 (3.10).

That brings us to the current date.  Essentially every Allied move in the game has been made with the DEI in mind - either directly or indirectly aiding Fortress Sumatra.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Miller

"Steve can overwhelm any Allied position in the Pacific, given the strength of his assets and the Allied focus on the DEI"

If he concentrates all his remaining assets and uses them properly then yes, he can. However, history suggests he can't or won't.

Whilst this game is effectively over as a contest now, I cannot see it lasting beyond mid 43 in any event.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: Miller

"Steve can overwhelm any Allied position in the Pacific, given the strength of his assets and the Allied focus on the DEI"

If he concentrates all his remaining assets and uses them properly then yes, he can. However, history suggests he can't or won't.

Whilst this game is effectively over as a contest now, I cannot see it lasting beyond mid 43 in any event.

He's out and out said he's about out of fuel. I don't see how he can overwhelm much of anything and still make HI/airframes/ships. Run him out of gas. How long can he operate CVs near Tarawa?

Invade places as far away from his held fuel centers as possible. (Kwajalein and vicinity?) Run him out, put his fleet and merchant marine in port, then crush him.

quote:

simply brilliant!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Panther Bait

Don't forget to hear the lamentations of his women.

Mike

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: princep01

I have followed your AARs carefully for a number of reasons...what has really impressed me in comparing your game with Q-Ball and this one is that you adopted what appears to me to be a more aggressive tactical game in the early going....CR, my question is what caused this change (if you consider it a change)? Did the lessons gleaned from your game with Q-Ball have a significant effect on your play this time. I've never played a Scenario 2 game against Japan. Was the Q-Ball game your first Senario2 game?

This is actually "the real me." I was equally as bold in my early games, but I was also boldy ignorant. I didn't really know what I was doing, so I blundered into all kinds of losses that were very painful. I lost more carriers than you would believe possible.

Consequently, I decided relatively recently to impose on myself a strict discipline of caution that would allow me to have carriers later in the game. I employed this caution, which became an exteme uber caution I admit, in my games vs. Miller and Q-Ball.

In my game vs. Q-Ball, though, I came uncomfortably close to losing by auto victory. So, when I started this new match, seeking a contest in which an experienced IJ player might shoot for auto victory, and in which he might have the advice and counsel of lots of experienced players, I knew I had to play much differently than I had against Q-Ball...and much smarter than I had played against Miller.

Presto, my natural inclination to take chances was back in play. Honestly, though, I was pretty lucky to score some nice victories early on. Had I been stung, I might have crawled back into my shell. Instead, each bold act seemed to be rewarded, so that human nature and blood lust encouraged more.

Member: Treaty, Reluctant Admiral and Between the Storms Mod Team.

Reluctant Admiral Mod:
https://sites.google.com/site/reluctantadmiral/

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Bummer about N. Carolina.

Re the isolated stack, bomb them and use arty bombardments to drain supply. Put an LCU in the "approach hex" to delay any rescue attempt if you have the troops.