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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/15/2012 10:29:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/14/42 and 10/15/42
 
Java Sea: The Japanese Navy finally made an appearance.  CA Atago led a handful of destroyers into combat in the straights between Billiton Island and Bangka.  In a clash with a small American APD/DMS TF, neither side suffered any real damage.  In a subsequent clash with a mixed Allied CL/DD force, no meaningful blows were struck.  The Allied CLs will have to retire to Cocos Island to replenish torps.  I'm hoping Atago will also have to retire (probably to Saigon).  These two clashes probably stopped Atago from finding any merchantmen, which are currently unloading at Toboali, Billiton and Ketapang (the latter TF is carrying a Port Service unit, but fortunately enemy patrols haven't sighted this TF).  Billiton Island airfield went to level three.  A detachment of 5th Marines is on the way to Ketapang.

DEI:  Elsewhere, everything looks good.  Engineers have arrived at Djambi, a potential level 9 airfield just south of Singapore.  The Allies intend to build this base out.

Burma:  The Very Happy Stalemate at Magwe Continues (the "Very" has been added in recognition of the Allies taking all hexsides and thus truly isolating the enemy force here).

China:  An interesting battle developing just south (true) of Chengchow.  A big Chinese army of 5,800 AV had retired a hex.  A smaller Japanese force (two divisions and a mixed brigade followed.  So the Chinese turned around to advance and attack this force.  Japanese air attacks slowed down some of the advancing Chinese, so the first attack consisted of only 2,000 AV fully supplied.  I thought that would be enough, but it was a strong 1:1 attack with the Chinese taking heavier casualties but little disruption.  Most of the rest of the Chinese army is in place now (4,000 AV total) with only two units in bad shape.  This army will attack again tomorrow. The danger is that there is a 15-unit stack of Japanese at Chengchow - one hex to the north.  If that army is on the move to reinforce the exposed units, then the Chinese could get a bloody nose.  It's worth the risk to hammer two exposed Japanese divisions.

NoPac: No sign of imminent enemy counterinvasion in the Kuriles.  16 more days until winter....

(in reply to zuluhour)
Post #: 2281
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/15/2012 11:27:00 PM   
Miller


Posts: 2226
Joined: 9/14/2004
From: Ashington, England.
Status: offline 		Hey Dan what is the turn frequency at the moment? This game seems to have been crawling for the last few months............

< Message edited by Miller -- 1/15/2012 11:29:48 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/16/2012 2:03:50 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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quote:

Burma: The Very Happy Stalemate at Magwe Continues (the "Very" has been added in recognition of the Allies taking all hexsides and thus truly isolating the enemy force here).


When you have all hex sides, does this also mean no supply flows into the hex to the surrounded troops?

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Post #: 2283
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/16/2012 3:20:29 AM   
desicat

 

Posts: 542
Joined: 5/25/2008
Status: offline 		I just don't think he has it in him to invade Para before Winter hits. I suspect he has spent this whole time reenforcing the other islands in the chain.

Just one more nail...

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Post #: 2284
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/16/2012 4:02:58 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Miller
Hey Dan what is the turn frequency at the moment? This game seems to have been crawling for the last few months............


We started the game 11 months ago and we've played 10 months into the war (Dec. '41 to Oct. '42). At first, we got in two turns per day, but Chez had a major job change in April that dropped us to one. We've maintained that pace pretty steadily, though I had to be away from the game for a week in December, and then Chez sent the wrong turn four times in one five day stretch in late December. Those two pauses really seemed to slow down the game.

I think my plan is to seriously consider starting a new game once this one reaches 1943. If Chez doesn't commit wholeheartedly to stopping the Allied expansion in the Java Sea, the game will be over for all intents and purposes by that date.

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Post #: 2285
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/16/2012 4:05:47 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: desicat
I just don't think he has it in him to invade Para before Winter hits. I suspect he has spent this whole time reenforcing the other islands in the chain.

Just one more nail...


That would be a catastrophic and inexplicable mistake on his part, but I think there's a decent chance you're going to be right.

Since the conclusion of the last major Allied offensive operation (invasion of Ndeni followed by occupation and building of Port Moresby and Milne Bay), the main Allied plan has been to have the assets in place to take advantage of a major enemy operation in the Kuriles before winter set in. The plan was to take advantage of the enemy being elsewhere to expand into the DEI in a major way. The Allied assets are indeed in place now, and the expansion into the Java Sea has begun, but there is still no sign of enemy action in the Kuriles.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/16/2012 4:08:05 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/16/2012 4:06:19 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
quote:

Burma: The Very Happy Stalemate at Magwe Continues (the "Very" has been added in recognition of the Allies taking all hexsides and thus truly isolating the enemy force here).


When you have all hex sides, does this also mean no supply flows into the hex to the surrounded troops?


I think that's the case. I'm operating on that assumption.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/16/2012 4:46:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/16/42
 
DEI:  CL Helena hits a mine at Toabali.  Allied ASW hammers an RO-boat, and damages an I-boat, in the vicinity.  The port service unit is ashore at Ketapang with a battalion of 5th Marines coming in tonight.  Reinforcements including armor, engineers and Chindits just arrived at Oosthaven.

Burma:  The Very Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues.

China:  The Japanese force near Chengchow holds against another 1:1 attack, but suffers disproportionately heavy casualties.  The adjusted AV of one of the two divisions drops to zero.  If, as expected, the Chinese dislodge the Japanese with the next attack, both Japanese divisions are going to be in very bad shape.  The two divisions involved are 23rd and 25th, which are both from nothern Manchuria.  After all the damage the Japanese army took in China during the spring and summer offensives, I cannot believe Steve has exposed two divisions against an experienced Chinese army of 5,500 AV.  Inexplicable.  (There is a chance the IJ army will be reinforced from the stack at adjacent Chengchow, but it's still inexplicable.)

NoPac:  No sign of imminent enemy counterinvasion.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/16/2012 4:48:57 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/16/2012 7:12:45 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		Do you have any ideal plans for the Chindits or will they simply be in the area to take advantage of opportunities. Also, do you have an idea of his fortification and garrison levels on Borneo and Java?

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/16/2012 7:36:10 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1.  The Chindit units are prepping for various targets in western Borneo, including Kuching and Beaufort (a small base just north of Brunei).

2.  For the near term, the Allied plan is to occupy and build Ketapang and Pontianak large - securing these critical bases.  At some point, the Allies can advance overland from Pontianak to Singkawang via land campaign.  If the Allies take Singkawang, I think that should essentially negate Steve's ability to use Singapore.  That, in turn, finishes his ability to adequately supply and defend Burma.

3.  Once Ketapang and Pontianak are secure and built out (and Singkawang taken, if still not strongly defended), the Allies will also have air bases within range to deal with Brunei, Miri, Balikpapan etc. 

4.  Where to from there?  In part, this will be determined by where the best opportunities lie (where the defenses seem vulnerable).  This could be western Borneo, southeastern and then eastern Borneo, or even Malaya.  But, at this point, I think the most likely target would be western Java - primarily Merak, but probably including Batavia.  Right now, these bases are weakly defended.  I can see a point in the not too distant future where the Allies would feel free to devote a fair portion of the current Sumatra garrison (defensive) to a campaign (offensive) in western Java.  As the Allied position in the Java Sea and Borneo bases grow, the peril to Sumatra declines, so the Allies will be able to draw down Sumatra to go on the offensive.

5.  There are a number of vacant bases on Borneo that are still Allied-controlled, meaning no forts.  I likewise suspect that Japanese forts in western Java are low, only because Steve hasn't ever committed major assets in the area.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/16/2012 8:43:05 PM   
obvert


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Status: offline 		From an earlier map I remember there were some choice locations still in Allied control. Once you have the bases on Borneo, and those are secure, if he hasn't taken those spots and brought in more garrisons it would be all too easy to start flying raider units and engineers around and have outposts building all over behind enemy lines. That is in addition to the very solid plans outlined above, which seem daunting enough, and it's almost impossible to see the Japanese countering any of them at this point.

Such an odd game. I still keep being surprised by the date, in 42.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/16/2012 8:45:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The rapidly developing situation in the Java Sea.




Attachment (1)

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/16/2012 8:55:48 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		P.S. Also, take note of the dot hex (Singtang) base up the river (inland) from Pontianak.  I've never made use of that hex before.  I've never heard of anybody making use of it.  But I can envision it being made use of in this game.  Assuming, that is, that it can be supplied by small xAKL or barges from Pontianak.  Under those circumstances, it would be worth developing that into an airbase proximate to pretty much everything on the island of Borneo.  It can be built to level eight. (I don't have barges yet, but don't the Allies get them eventually?)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/16/2012 8:57:48 PM >

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Post #: 2293
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/16/2012 9:55:56 PM   
zuluhour


Posts: 5244
Joined: 1/20/2011
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		removed. wrong idea.

< Message edited by zuluhour -- 1/16/2012 10:01:04 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/16/2012 10:30:37 PM   
JeffroK


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

P.S. Also, take note of the dot hex (Singtang) base up the river (inland) from Pontianak.  I've never made use of that hex before.  I've never heard of anybody making use of it.  But I can envision it being made use of in this game.  Assuming, that is, that it can be supplied by small xAKL or barges from Pontianak.  Under those circumstances, it would be worth developing that into an airbase proximate to pretty much everything on the island of Borneo.  It can be built to level eight. (I don't have barges yet, but don't the Allies get them eventually?)


You start getting Landing Craft instead of barges.

It would make a useful airbase for your short legged fighters and light/medium bombers to close down some oil ports.

I have, just because I could, sent a Bn there once as well as invaded Groot Nateuna, even the AI kicks you out quickly.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/16/2012 11:39:08 PM   
zuluhour


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From: Maryland
Status: offline 		looks like '44 to me

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/17/2012 1:34:45 AM   
Alfred

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
quote:

Burma: The Very Happy Stalemate at Magwe Continues (the "Very" has been added in recognition of the Allies taking all hexsides and thus truly isolating the enemy force here).


When you have all hex sides, does this also mean no supply flows into the hex to the surrounded troops?


I think that's the case. I'm operating on that assumption.


Supply flows across owned and neutral hexsides. It doesn't flow across enemy owned hexsides.

Alfred

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/17/2012 6:31:23 AM   
Alfred

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

P.S. Also, take note of the dot hex (Singtang) base up the river (inland) from Pontianak.  I've never made use of that hex before.  I've never heard of anybody making use of it.  But I can envision it being made use of in this game.  Assuming, that is, that it can be supplied by small xAKL or barges from Pontianak.  Under those circumstances, it would be worth developing that into an airbase proximate to pretty much everything on the island of Borneo.  It can be built to level eight. (I don't have barges yet, but don't the Allies get them eventually?)


Ingame that is not a navigable river. Although Singtang is classified as a "Base" and not an "AF" you can't actually build any port facilities there. It might or might not be a map anomaly, that is a question for Andrew Brown's expertise.

Alfred

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/17/2012 11:01:51 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

P.S. Also, take note of the dot hex (Singtang) base up the river (inland) from Pontianak.  I've never made use of that hex before.  I've never heard of anybody making use of it.  But I can envision it being made use of in this game.  Assuming, that is, that it can be supplied by small xAKL or barges from Pontianak.  Under those circumstances, it would be worth developing that into an airbase proximate to pretty much everything on the island of Borneo.  It can be built to level eight. (I don't have barges yet, but don't the Allies get them eventually?)


Ingame that is not a navigable river. Although Singtang is classified as a "Base" and not an "AF" you can't actually build any port facilities there. It might or might not be a map anomaly, that is a question for Andrew Brown's expertise.

Alfred


Too bad. It certainly looks navigable.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/17/2012 2:52:34 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/17/42
 
Not the best of days for Japan.  To be honest, I'm starting to wonder why we are playing this game.

The Place where Japanese Divisions Go to Die (China):  A third successive Chinese deliberate attack near Chengchow does the trick, dislodging and mauling two IJA divisions (23 and 25) and a brigade.  That's at least ten IJA divisions that have been "blown up" in China during the spring, summer and now autumn offensive.  All of these have been in small stacks that were negligently exposed to defeat in detail, but these last two were in a particularly ill-advised advance against a massive Chinese stack.

The Place where Japanese Divisions Go to Get Isolated (Burma):  4th Guards and 33rd (and Guards Tank) Divisions are isolated at Magwe.  No sign of a Japanese plan to come to their rescue.  The cordon isolating them isn't real strong, so you'd expect Japan to work on this, but I refer you to the next paragraph.

The Place where Japanese Divisions are Well and Truly Isolated (Sumatra):  21st and 38th Divisions (and two tank regiments) have been isolated at Padang for months.  I detect no evidence of an IJ plan to extract or relieve these units, and at this point it will take an all-out and therefore wasteful effort (because this hex is off in a corner where a major commitment is a waste even if successful) to even try. 

The Place where Japan has Every Advantage but May Squander the Opportunity (Kuriles):  Onne and Para are exposed, relatively weakly garrisoned, and for months had zero supply.  Through an appropriate use of sea and air power, Japan can impose an unbreakable blockade.  Then Japan can (relatively) easily reclaim both islands, removing a major thorn in the flesh.  While the opportunity was even better back during the summer monthhs (due to lack of Allied supply), it's still a good one...for 13 more days until winter sets in.  If Japan doesn't act now to reclaim these bases, by next spring both will be reinforced, fully supplied, and fort levels will be considerably higher.  If Japan doesn't counterinvade by the end of October....well, why are we playing this game?

The Place where Japan Already Squandered its Opportunities (DEI):  5th Marines have come ashore (134 AV) at Ketapang in good order.  The Allies are rapidly garrisoning their new northern "perimeter" (Pontianak and Ketapang) while Japan offers little to no resistance.  Troops are pouring into Oosthaven, where they then re-embark on smaller, less risky TFs for transfer to the Java Sea bases (the two just mentioned plus Billiton, Toboali and Muntok).  Lots more troops on the way.

Here's the Combat Report for the Whupping Taken by the Two IJA Divisions near Chenghow:
 
Ground combat at 87,45

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 142975 troops, 848 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 5421

Defending force 19053 troops, 267 guns, 35 vehicles, Assault Value = 444

Allied adjusted assault: 2683

Japanese adjusted defense: 462

Allied assault odds: 5 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(+), disruption(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
     11124 casualties reported
        Squads: 412 destroyed, 43 disabled
        Non Combat: 451 destroyed, 55 disabled
        Engineers: 37 destroyed, 9 disabled
     Guns lost 23 (11 destroyed, 12 disabled)
     Vehicles lost 23 (23 destroyed, 0 disabled)
     Units retreated 3 

Allied ground losses:
     1880 casualties reported
        Squads: 5 destroyed, 134 disabled
        Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 158 disabled
        Engineers: 1 destroyed, 17 disabled 

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
   93rd Chinese Corps
   2nd Chinese Cavalry Corps
   59th Chinese Corps
   13th Chinese Corps
   9th Chinese Corps
   85th Chinese Corps
   47th Chinese Corps
   89th Chinese Corps
   96th Chinese Corps
   45th Chinese Corps
   75th Chinese Corps
   36th Chinese Corps
   68th Chinese Corps
   67th Chinese Corps
   61st Chinese Corps
   80th Chinese Corps
   90th Chinese Corps
   40th Chinese Corps
   38th Chinese Corps
   98th Chinese Corps
   3rd Group Army
   33rd Group Army
   24th Group Army
   2nd Group Army
   26th Group Army
   4th Group Army
   36th Group Army
   39th Group Army

Defending units:
   23rd Division
   59th Infantry Brigade
   25th Division

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/17/2012 2:54:22 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/17/2012 2:54:39 PM   
jeffk3510


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Status: offline 		That has to feel good with that result in China... I hate China.. Can really be a thorn in either's side if one is good at it, but it annoys me

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/17/2012 5:12:15 PM   
paullus99


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Status: offline 		You destroyed pretty much a complete division there - this is nuts.

What the heck is Chaz doing with this ships, planes & troops? There doesn't seem to be any activity, anywhere.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/17/2012 5:30:09 PM   
SqzMyLemon


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Status: offline 		What is happening in China is inexplicable.

Is there any chance he's simply marshalling his forces for an all out strike...somewhere? Or have you accounted for most of his strength and find it unlikely he's able to move against you?

Your patience is amazing, but I can tell how frustrated you are becoming. I would think seriously upon your desire to start a new game, as this one seems to only be played by one person...yourself.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/17/2012 5:31:28 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		That's exactly right, paullus!  I was just mulling over at lunch, and over the past few days, the remarkable lack of offensive activity on the part of Japan.  Here's a summary:

Ground:  Nothing.  Anywhere.  Zero.  The last commitment of a ground unit to an attack was about 20 or 30 AV to a failed invasion of Ndeni about two months ago.  The last commitment of any kind of major ground force anywhere would have been many months ago when there were two-division advances on Padang and Magwe, both of which ended up with the Japanese forces isolated.

Sea:  CA Atago in Java Sea this week was the first commitment of a capital ship in an active front in months.

Air:  There are regular though modest commitments of Japanese bombers in the Kuriles, China, and Burma.  There was a sustained and larger commitment in Sumatra for awhile, but a few setbacks discouraged that so that we haven't seen a bomber or fighter there in several weeks.

Offensives:  The last offensive by Japan was the 30-AV invasion of Ndeni two months ago.  Other than that it has been four months or longer since Japan has tried any kind of offensive.  Well, you might consider the commitment of two divisions to Malaybaylay in the Philippines, but since that base was 1,000 miles behind the front lines, I don't. 

I think Chez is concentrating on building a strong MLR well inside the current front lines.  Why he's doing that I don't know.  If I were him, I'd rather go out in a blaze of glory than sit back and slowly die.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/17/2012 5:32:51 PM   
GreyJoy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Your patience is amazing, but I can tell how frustrated you are becoming. I would think seriously upon your desire to start a new game, as this one seems to only be played by one person...yourself.


+ 1

unfortunately as i said long time ago i simply think Chez is playing this game only because it would not be honourable to quit...but he probably has lost any interest in it so far...

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/17/2012 5:46:19 PM   
vettim89


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Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Toledo, Ohio
Status: offline 		Dan,

One of two things has happened here. Either Chez is losing interest in this game himself or he is just sitting back waiting for you to overextend yourself in one area of the map. He would then bring all his forces to bear for one symbolic vitory before the Empire collapses from the lack of fuel. So if you want a little "juice" back in this game, it is going to come from you not your opponent regardless of which of the two states I described exists.

C'mon, Man! Where is the guy who tried to take Hokkaido in 1943?

I double dare you to try something bold. No, I double dog dare you.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/17/2012 6:04:10 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Nope.  Nothing bold in the works.  The Allies have charted a course to victory and don't plan to deviate.  That course leads through Borneo and possibly western Java.  And, since the Allies are already strongly established, they can methodically advance under cover of LBA, take new bases, build new airfields, rinse and repeat.

To do anything else would entail unnecessary risk and probably would play into Steve's hands (or a symptom of victory disease) for the reasons you state.

This isn't an exciting way to prosecute an end game, but the game will end in 1943 (unless Japan can do without Palembang for an entire game and also do without - or without the ability to use - Balikpapan, Samarinda, Brunei, and Miri beginning in early 1943.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/17/2012 6:20:20 PM   
vettim89


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Nope.  Nothing bold in the works.  The Allies have charted a course to victory and don't plan to deviate.  That course leads through Borneo and possibly western Java.  And, since the Allies are already strongly established, they can methodically advance under cover of LBA, take new bases, build new airfields, rinse and repeat.

To do anything else would entail unnecessary risk and probably would play into Steve's hands (or a symptom of victory disease) for the reasons you state.

This isn't an exciting way to prosecute an end game, but the game will end in 1943 (unless Japan can do without Palembang for an entire game and also do without - or without the ability to use - Balikpapan, Samarinda, Brunei, and Miri beginning in early 1943.


I am calling the FBI. The real Canoerebel has obviously been abducted and replaced with a shoddy fascimile. Dan, go back and read your Forlorn Hopes AAR from beginning to end and then reread that last paragraph.

Nemo, where"s Nemo? We need a lecture on how to get into your opponents OODA loop and fast.

I TRIPLE DOG DARE YOU!!!!!!!!!!!

Just joking (mostly). That said I fear this game has grown stale for both sides. Nomad and I had a 2x2 game going where we had executed the Fortress Palembang strategy. That game ended in May of 1942 so you have done well to press into October

< Message edited by vettim89 -- 1/17/2012 6:46:26 PM >

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"We have met the enemy and they are ours" - Commodore O.H. Perry

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2308
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/17/2012 6:41:16 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Yeah, Nemo's successful Fortress Palembang against 1 Eyed Jacks ended early (June 1942 I think).  It appears that a successful Fortress Palembang, which Japan shouldn't allow to happen in the first place, is a good way to bring a game to a screeching halt.

Mind you, Steve hasn't given the slightest indication he's going to throw in the towel.  But if he hasn't done something by the end of 1942, I may approach him myself to inquire about his intentions and the utility of continuing.

(in reply to vettim89)
Post #: 2309
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/17/2012 6:56:40 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		I have two 1x1 PBMs going that each began about the beginning of December. Each of my opponents was impressed enough with this game that they made certain to not allow it to happen in the first place.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2310
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