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RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg

 
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RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/11/2011 11:45:39 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 10

AGC

Second Panzer commences Operation "There's No Here, Here", leaving Gomel. It's nice, but not really the place to be in the high summer. A seam in the defenses in located, and pulled. Second Panzer ends up south and east of Chernigov. I'd rather link up with Third Panzer sooner than later, but needing to leave Gomel, we tank the open road. Fourth Army and light elements of Second Panzers infantry commence opening a hole to the northeast as well. Linkup with Third Panzer is the short-term goal, now that the Prip Pocket is sealed.

Operation "Save Das Reich" (the Motorized Division, that is) will commence next turn, lol. It's been air dropped fuel for now. I expect it to be cut off next turn, as I left it exposed, and not in great position in any case.






Edit: I'm catching up to Oleg in views, woot.

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< Message edited by Senno -- 3/12/2011 12:48:32 AM >

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RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/12/2011 12:04:21 AM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 10

AGS:

6th Army takes Kiev in handoff from First Panzer and helps Second Panzer seal in the Prip Pocket as noted above.

17th Army heads east/southeast and collides with a well dug in line. Operatons to kick that line down will commence next turn, if it remains in place. First Panzer commences rolling down the inside of the Dnepr, attempting to roll up the defense. A very small pocket is formed southwest of Kiev.







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< Message edited by Senno -- 3/12/2011 1:07:53 AM >

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RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/12/2011 12:32:06 AM   
TulliusDetritus


Posts: 5521
Joined: 4/1/2004
From: The Zone™
Status: offline 		Senno, you started timidly, but now it looks like the machine is well oiled I would not know where to start with ze Germans. A few mistakes and it's over

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Post #: 93
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/12/2011 12:45:07 AM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Thanks TD, appreciate it.


I hope to be able to produce some nice pockets more consistently going forward. And continue to try to drive those Panzers with audacity.

Results vary, haha.



< Message edited by Senno -- 3/12/2011 1:05:32 AM >

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Post #: 94
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/12/2011 1:09:45 AM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 10

AGS:

11th Army and the bulk of the Romanians are now across the upper Bug in force. Soviets remain in force, well dug in along this line, for now.








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RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/12/2011 4:12:49 AM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		I still wish old "72-cannon" had quotes instead of just a large number of concubines and an impressive...er...cannon.  If he had said something worthwhile to inspire you this war would be over.

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Post #: 96
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/12/2011 4:34:11 AM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 11:

General Impression:

With the Infantry, we will be moving to contact. In AGN thats towards Leningrad, as the small breakthrough caused a retreat off the river line back towards Leningrad. In AGC that's east/northeast towards Moscow. In AGS that's to the Dnepr, then tracking down along it's shores to head to Stalino. That's pretty much historical, I believe.

Soviet retreats in AGC and AGS have yielded hundreds of square miles of hexes. How much is actually checkerboarded and not empty we shall see. But I'm not going to race forward with the Panzers, 2-3 turns from infantry. Just 1-2 turns out in front, haha. I've not killed enough units, and know that they are still out there somewhere. Unsupported panzers are easy to cut off.

My relative lack of audacity has prevented a PDH sized haul. I have to be content with the territory, and not the units dying. Not that I have the same advance limits as PDH, sadly... I am trying to be more audacious, though. It's difficult to do after watching TD chew up the Panzers in his earlier AAR....

If there's no checkerboard, I will close up to the Soviets, but try to remain balanced, so not easily surrounded.

I now have more territory to retreat from come the blizzard in the northern half of AGS. Maybe I will survive until Spring '42, rather than winter. We shall see.

I am happy that I got a chance to play Oleg. He accepts the defense, and has not done a Sir Robin on a strategic level. He is a fun opponent to play.

I am trying to do my part by accepting the offense, haha.



< Message edited by Senno -- 3/12/2011 5:49:37 AM >

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Post #: 97
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/12/2011 4:34:33 AM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		AGN:






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< Message edited by Senno -- 3/12/2011 4:35:19 AM >

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Post #: 98
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/12/2011 4:36:11 AM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		AGC:








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Post #: 99
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/12/2011 4:39:11 AM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		AGS:






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< Message edited by Senno -- 3/12/2011 4:42:00 AM >

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Post #: 100
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/12/2011 9:11:10 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 11

AGN:

I have spent the great majority of the points aligning the HQ's with units, and ensuring all units have SU's directly attached as best I could. It continues to be a grind, as he is heavily entrenced.

16th Army crosses the Luga, and smacks into the Soviets at high speed. We can begin to smell Leningrad at this point. LVI Panzer/Fourth panzer exploit into the opening, and create a pocket centered on Kotly.

The inner ring appears to be massively entrenched, the visible portions being levels 3 and 4. May have to commit more than 1 full stack to start breaking in, in the coming turns. As our maneuver options are narrowing as we get closer to Leningrad.

7 turns until mud, tick tock.

The Panzers of Fourth Panzer remain in excellent condition. The MP's are lowish though, generally in the thirties. I'm doing well enough, I think, that I will leave them off the front lines another turn. I hope to have over 40 MP's next turn, which will greatly expand options, including a potential right hook. I am unsure if Soviets recon flights spotted them or not, so I will shift them about slightly to at least force them to refly with their hordes. He remains somewhat committed South of Lake Ilmen, but if he doesn't commit more, I think I overmatch forces, and can bust through next turn. The forces staring at Novgorod could potentially shift to help out, MP's willing.

18th Army launches general attacks and moves north/northeast.

I hope AGN's area is loosing up somewhat, but it's strategic target can't be a surprise.

The infantry remain in good shape. Some are in the mid 80's TOE wise, refit status is adjusted, but they remain in the line.

The vast majority of my infantry are at 85% and above. Over half are over 90% TOE. The replacements coming in are just enough to maintain that 80% mark, for present. In AGN I grind em down to mid to high 70's , come next turn, they are ready to go.

The infantry corps are nearly reorganized. 4 per corps. I intend to to a 3 up, 1 back linebacker during winter. I have the forces for this on the present line I occupy if I have the Finns. If not, a shortening choice will be made. So, activating the Finns remains important. Coming down to the wire on that, haha. Exciting game for me.








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< Message edited by Senno -- 3/12/2011 9:53:14 PM >

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RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/12/2011 9:13:55 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		The Panzers of Fourth Panzer remain in excellent condition. The MP's are lowish though, generally in the thirties. I'm doing well enough, I think, that I will leave them off the front lines another turn. I hope to have over 40 MP's next turn, which will greatly expand options, including a potential right hook. I am unsure if Soviets recon flights spotted them or not, so I will shift them about slightly to at least force them to refly with their hordes. He remains somewhat committed South of Lake Ilmen, but if he doesn't commit more, I think I overmatch forces, and can bust through next turn. The forces staring at Novgorod could potentially shift to help out, MP's willing.






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RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/12/2011 9:20:45 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		AGN:

South of Lake Ilmen the charade that I started when I flashed down there into open space a couple turns ago continues.

Second Army is retasked to create conditions that might allow for a potential right hook, rather than simply screen. They join XXXVIII Corps of 18th Army, in this mission.

If conditions are ripe, the right hook might commence. I really need to streeetttttttcccchhhhhh the defense, and not let them consolidate so readily. He remains lightly to moderately invested South of Lake Ilmen, so we shall see.

Torzhok/Kalinin isn't that far off, either.

We are quite far from isolating Leningrad, and linking up with the Finns, though.

Thanks to PeeDee for his inspirational breakthrough screeny. I hope to be in Gorki, by late Fall now.




I forgot to add above that he still hasn't counter-attacked very much, at all. I'm happy with this, of course. Winter approaches, in any case. And I'm certain I will get my fill, then.

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< Message edited by Senno -- 3/12/2011 9:58:11 PM >

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RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/12/2011 11:18:53 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 11

AGC

What the rng gods give in AGN, they taketh away in AGC. Reducing the Smolensk pocket results in 2 helds during the combat. That's against a fully supplied, combat ready German force. I untimately had the mp's to reduce the pocket but 1 survives. There's an outstanding issue in how long the forces last when pocketed. These guys, having stewed only 1 turn remained tough. I hesitate to leave a pocket in my rear for very long to see when the last unit will surrender on it's own.

General combat along the line results in quite a few more "helds" as the defenses are solid. They should be, as Soviets have been in the vicinity forever and a day. I will go from double to triple stack in attack next turn, maybe. This is also generally expected, as the Soviets slowly improve their defenses and their own level of exp/morale.

Otherwise, Ninth Army continues to slog east/northeast towards Moscow. Third Panzer pulls out of the Smolensk, and declares victory. It has earned a small rest, as the Soviets have ceded the territory I intended to spend the next couple turns obtaining. This leaves us solidly in control of the Dnepr. with all combat forces across the lower Dnepr in AGC's section. The upper remains in Ninth Armies view as we continue across the landbridge.

The FBD is at Smolensk outskirts now. So things are looking up for the Drive on Moscow. 18th Motorized broke it's nose smacking into the next wave of defenss in the landbridge, haha. I didn't attack with it, and it's still healthy at 94% TOE.

Soviets will have to play "Where's Waldo" with my Panzers this turn.

The slow slog east out of VL continues, 1 hex taken, with moderate losses. Losses per combat are trending up, as expected. The Soviets are every so slowly improving. Not certain if they are thickening though. He may be strong where I am as a "show the force" exercise, but relatively hollow everywhere else?

I hope to see next turn, with 4 fueled panzer armies. PeeDee's example stands out in his massive breakthrough as the optimum, to me.

I am starting to wonder about his cavalry also. I want to kick them whenever I see them, to at least try to impact his winter mobility.

AGC will remain secondary to AGN for purposes of AP expenditures. So, the commands of AGC aren't optimized yet, neither are SU's. This will not change until Leningrad is isolated and/or taken.





PS: Moscow creeps into view.

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< Message edited by Senno -- 3/12/2011 11:19:48 PM >

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RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/12/2011 11:43:12 PM   
Encircled


Posts: 2024
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline 		Once the Russians get established, its a hard slog

Maybe, just maybe there is a gap there for you to at least force a general retreat

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Post #: 105
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/12/2011 11:47:34 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 11

AGC

In the southern half of AGC, Second Panzer also declares victory and pulls off the line to refit after converting hexes. I would have liked the pocketed Soviet forces, but accept the huge amount of territory as small compensation.

4th Army moves to contact. They meet the Soviets on the upper Dnestr, but lack MP's to engage in general combat. A cavalry division is kicked, though. The Soviets aren't well dug in here seemingly. Will see if that changes much next turn as the detection level improves.

The FBD is now at Gomel.











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< Message edited by Senno -- 3/12/2011 11:53:06 PM >

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RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/12/2011 11:51:59 PM   
Klydon


Posts: 2251
Joined: 11/28/2010
Status: offline 		It is likely not a matter that the Russians are "tough", but rather they are dug in better in good terrain and your guys are tired and away from the rail head. They have been on the move now for over 2 months straight, so the edge is getting a bit dull. 

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Post #: 107
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/13/2011 12:05:54 AM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Railheads are right behind the forces in AGN, at Smolensk, Kiev, and Gomel. I'm off the railheads only as a literal matter. The infantry are within supply range of the railheads.

Fatigue varies from 16 to 69 in the infantry.

And I'm never certain which unit might be a survivor from AGS or a survivor of various combats over the course of the game.

I don't believe I ever discounted the ground they are on, or entrenchment level as a factor, as well.

So the possibility exists that the divisions are ideed relatively "tough" as far as the Soviets go at this stage of this war. That's my own fault though, for the most part.

I don't disagree that the "edge is dulling" though, I'm getting ready to think about rotating divisions as fatigue rises.

Thanks for the comment, though.

I was speaking of the pocketed units to the immediate south of Smolenks, not those in Prip Pocket, btw.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Once the Russians get established, its a hard slog

Maybe, just maybe there is a gap there for you to at least force a general retreat


This is what I am hoping for. Gonna see if I can find it, if it exists.

< Message edited by Senno -- 3/13/2011 2:00:56 AM >

(in reply to Klydon)
Post #: 108
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/13/2011 12:27:54 AM   
TulliusDetritus


Posts: 5521
Joined: 4/1/2004
From: The Zone™
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Senno

AGC:









He gave you many free space west of Bryansk. I don't understand why he did not checkerboard the whole thing. He hasn't put the spared Southwestern Front units to good use Sufice to say that like 20 divisions could be diverted to other fronts and his defence would still be decent... He is oscillating between the two extremes: he allows you to swallow many of his forces (recent pockets) and then gives you tons of the motherland space for free. These are good news for you

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Post #: 109
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/13/2011 12:51:55 AM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 11

AGS:

Sixth Army for the most part crosses the Dnepr at Kiev and fans out, moving to contact. The Prip Marshes pocket is being reduced.

In the area of the "great withdrawal" the Soviets are checkedboarded, with a solid line on the Chula down to Cherkassy and down to the area of 11th Army.

Seventeenth Army advance east/southeast to co contact, closing in on Cherkassy.

The FBD is nearing Kiev. The possibility exists to route it through Cherkassy or points South for the Dnepr crossing.

11th Army knocks down size 3 forts which were oriented east/northeast shielding the way down to the Crim. A linkup with 17th Army is accomplished somewhat, with heavy combat in the area of the linkup.

The fallback leaves the Soviets with generally straight lines, just bowing a bit in the middle, opposite Kursk. This is the "bend but don't break" defense of the '70's Cowboys in action, haha. Let's see if I can be like the '70's Steelers, and break em down.

Fun game for sure. Started slowly, for me for sure. Oleg remains on his game, with formed defenses on the face of it.



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< Message edited by Senno -- 3/13/2011 1:42:36 AM >

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RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/13/2011 12:57:13 AM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus


He gave you many free space west of Bryansk. I don't understand why he did not checkerboard the whole thing. He hasn't put the spared Southwestern Front units to good use Sufice to say that like 20 divisions could be diverted to other fronts and his defence would still be decent... He is oscillating between the two extremes: he allows you to swallow many of his forces (recent pockets) and then gives you tons of the motherland space for free. These are good news for you


Thanks TD, I'm very glad to have the Dnepr behind me. And some open space.

The withdrawal give me the space I was prepared to spend the next few turns on for free.

He did end up checkboarding in AGS though. The way to Stalino isn't wide open, sadly. Overall I think he's protected the vitals. So much as I can detect anyway.




< Message edited by Senno -- 3/13/2011 1:05:50 AM >

(in reply to TulliusDetritus)
Post #: 111
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/13/2011 1:31:34 AM   
TulliusDetritus


Posts: 5521
Joined: 4/1/2004
From: The Zone™
Status: offline 		Now all you have in front of you is tank country, so enjoy. I guess this has to be most feared place when you're a Soviet player I'll be soon running for my life there

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Post #: 112
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/13/2011 1:41:20 AM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Good luck. 2ndACR is a roughrider.

Well, Dragoon that is. Yes indeedy.

(in reply to TulliusDetritus)
Post #: 113
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/13/2011 3:36:48 AM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 12:

Well, a quick glance at the returned game shows 2 successful counter-attacks in AGN. The 1st SS Motorized & 8th SS Cavalry are driven back, with moderate losses. This opens my mini-pocket and cuts off the 2 motorized north of there. Soviets come off worse for the wear in the actual combat. This is to the Soviets advantage overall though, as it delays Germans as the mud closes in.

In my pockets in AGC and AGS 2 units surrender in Prip Marshes, and the last Smolensk pocket victim surrenders.

The Soviets are off the Bug in 11th Armies area.








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< Message edited by Senno -- 3/13/2011 6:26:57 AM >

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RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/13/2011 3:42:46 AM   
2ndACR


Posts: 5665
Joined: 8/31/2003
From: Irving,Tx
Status: offline 		Very good. You know Dragoon's. LOL

But we gave up the title 2nd Dragoons in 1860's or so.

TD........you would be running if I was not sitting here crying because I have no turn.

Very nice rested Panzer Corp there. You have 5 turns to close off Leningrad. About time to unleash them. Once you blow a hole though.


(in reply to Senno)
Post #: 115
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/13/2011 4:21:42 AM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: 2ndACR

Very good. You know Dragoon's. LOL

But we gave up the title 2nd Dragoons in 1860's or so.

TD........you would be running if I was not sitting here crying because I have no turn.

Very nice rested Panzer Corp there. You have 5 turns to close off Leningrad. About time to unleash them. Once you blow a hole though.




Yes. It's just a unit nickname, of course. I realize the 2ndACR is off horses now.

LoL, about the hole.

The approach to Leningrad is pretty exciting. I'd love to make it, it's gonna be close I think. I gotta bring the forces up from south of Lake Ilmen to help now, if he's not worried about a right hook, I can't help it now. Defenses thick or thin, I have to go hard.



< Message edited by Senno -- 3/13/2011 5:13:30 AM >

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Post #: 116
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/13/2011 5:41:27 AM   
Ketza


Posts: 2227
Joined: 1/14/2007
From: Columbia, Maryland
Status: offline 		Very exciting game.

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Post #: 117
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/13/2011 6:26:09 AM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Thanks, Ketza.

Appreciate it.

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Post #: 118
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/13/2011 6:52:30 AM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 12

AGN:

Operation: "Time is not on my side" commences.

The cut off motorized are rescued by elements of Second Army and 16th Army. The pocket is tightened back up. Further advance by infantry opened a hole, and the Panzers of Fourth Panzer exploit to Pushkin. The panzers are double-stacked, and hopefully will be able to withstand any counter-attack Soviets can muster. The panzers are delivered fuel and supplies to the maximum extent possible.

I'm a bit surprised at this, thinking that defenses elsewhere would have been stripped to thicken up to the immediate south of Leningrad. Well, "bit surprised" is an understatement. Hopefully we can grab Leningrad in the limited time before mud. The Finns would be a godsend for winter, as well.

If the Soviets can wither quick in isolation or beachhead, I need it to happen now, haha. Need to get my left flank clear so infanty can push in and replace the panzers. I can't do it this turn, not enough mp's.

I have left the furtherst pocket west in place, as there's not a port there, and I'd rather them be isolated, than to have a larger pocket on "beachhead" status on the coming turn.

I'm later than normal on my winter preparations as well, gonna drop some forts to get some digging going, AP's willing.




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< Message edited by Senno -- 3/13/2011 7:54:33 AM >

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Post #: 119
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/13/2011 2:56:45 PM   
mmarquo


Posts: 1376
Joined: 9/26/2000
Status: offline 		Great move - and a Soviet grevious error; there should have been impregnable level 4 forts arrayed in depth to prevent such a catastrophe. I think you will be able to muscle him out by direct assault; your losses will be worht it.

Marquo

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