Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

While here Rader has clearly shown he wants the whole of China and the whole of India and he has committed everything he had.

Under this pov i think digging in at Bombay was a mistake.

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Nemo, Fishbed and Bullwinkle,

again i thank you really much for being so analitic and for spending time writing here. I really do appreaciate.

Specifically speaking it's clear that you all consider my overall strategy dumb to say the least. I hoped the new analysis and elements i've given to you had changed a bit your vision upon this match...they did not.

As soon as i get back from office i'll have some time to reply to you in deep.

In the meanwhile thanks a lot again

gj

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121
The cultural premium put on personal experiential learning bears moderation.

quote:


Context is everything . What you see in an AAR is a mere perception of a reflection seen through a mist of the actual situation in-game...

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Hmm, 600 AV of troops lost in Bombay for a 2 or 3 day delay. Seems like a terrible exchange rate to me.

In addition despite the way his armoured forces used good terrain to outmanoeuvre you before you are setting up a widely dispersed defensive line which is NOT contiguous, is NOT set up for a defence in depth to avoid penetration and exploiting into your strategic depth and in which you are simply begging to be pocketed and destroyed piecemeal just like you have been before.

Attitude is all well and good but your dispositions are suicidal.


It is good to play and learn from your own mistakes but is it necessary to learn every lesson personally the hard way?

Lastly, Rader is a reasonably good player. He isn't going to be bothered by those losses from your B-17s because in the greater scheme of things:
a) your B-17 losses represent about 10 days worth of replacements. He can replace his losses in less time than that. So, attritionally the losses you inflicted still work in his favour.
b) you won't have significant reserves of the B-17s, he will have reserves for each of those airframe types. Thus in 1 week his defence will be as strong, your attack will be weaker. Again, the exchange rate favours him.
c) Even if your B-17s were tearing him up it is a tiny morale-raising sideshow which does nothing about the situation which is going to develop in Karachi.

UNless there's a significant change in strategic dispositions your opponent is on the money to become the first player to take all of India and CHina. After that he should logically go for Australia and, if you're willing to play on, then mobilise everything to invade CONUSA and be the first player to capture the entire AE map. That is what I would be thinking of were I in his position.


So, it is great to see fighting spirit but I think you haven't yet come to terms with the land warfare model in AE and are going to find yourself surprised, yet again, despite advice to the contrary in this AAR, when his schwerpunkt dislocates your outpost line ( I won't call it an MLR since it isn't contiguous and it won't offer much resistance ).

Previously you had good options on the table - although you didn't know it. Now your only possibility for continuing to hold Australia into 1943 ( which IS what you are now fighting for, even though you don't realise it ) is to turtle into Karachi.


With all of the above said, you can still easily enough win the game so don't despair.... what you do over the next week will determine whether you go on to win or whether you go on to lose the map ( which is, IMO, a real possibility if your opponent is a man of ambition ).

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

While here Rader has clearly shown he wants the whole of China and the whole of India and he has committed everything he had.

Under this pov i think digging in at Bombay was a mistake.

I think it's at least concievable that Rader has decided he wants to see if he can eliminate every single vestige of Allied power on the Asian landmass: India, China, and USSR, before the auto-vic date in January.

CR is right. Giving up Bombay with its large LI-based supply generation and x4 bonus, was unwise. Karachi only matters if you have some semblance of sea power in the region. You don't. The massive set of surface assets you have detailed to the Marshalls sideshow is enough for 4 great surface action groups, and 7-8 modest ones. You are wasting it. The war will be decided in the IO and that's where your navies ought to be. If you're playing some "historical" mindset where only the RN and Dutch can operate in the IO, well, your opponent is not playing as if bound by history. Rader already has the Aden channel locked down; LOD reenforcements won't get to Karachi. With Bombay, he has a massive refuel, rearm and repair base necessary to permanently interdict the entire west coast of India.

You continue to focus on air power. At this point it is a sideshow. Supply, naval power, and more supply should be your focus.

Again, I ask, WHY are you not using Ceylon, for anything? It is a massive asset in Rader's (now) backyard where you could be harrassing him to no end, patrolling out as far as DG and the CT exit, and possibly stopping some of the transports about to dump 3+ new divisions from Socotra NORTH of Bombay, either right on Karachi, or more likely on Surat, for a supply interdiction run to the NE, possibly right at your "new" love, Hydebarad (sp?).

Even if you execute the Marshalls perfectly, what is there in VPs in the best case? Why would Rader spend a second worrying about it? The war is in Asia, not the Marshalls. You have most of your effective response forces off on a rabbit chase. You think he'll panic and shift the IJN to stopping you setting up on Wotje? Really? His planning horizon is six months. He doesn't care. But those 30+ small to heavy combatants you have detailed to the Marshalls could shift the balance in the IO if they were there, with many/most at Ceylon. Your air effort should be going to providing an umbrella over that vital base, and you should be harrassing Rader at every opportunity on the water. His land-based supply lines are long (about to get much shorter when he takes Bomaby, but still . . .) You're giving him a pass, not bagging easy VPs he has at sea. Attacking the Marshalls may make you feel as if you're "doing something", but right now, since you've punted on Bombay, it's the wrong something. If you'd have fortified Bombay and bought time, maybe a more moderate Marshalls campaign would make some sense, but now, having pinned your hopes on H. and K., I don't think so.

Anyway, it's your game. I'll watch some more now.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

GreyJoy, to clarify something I said early today, you didn't reveal anything from my game with Q-Ball (I was just reminding everyone that the game may resume - hopefully - so that I wouldn't want anything to be revealed).

Now to another point. You didn't go from 3,000 AV in India to 5,000 AV by bringing in an Aussie division or so.

What this tells me is that you actually had quite a bit more AV in India than you were aware of. As you gain more experience, you'll be more aware of things like that, but the sooner you start the better. Also, it will help people in giving informed advice if they have an accurate picture of the situation. 3,000 AV was a desperately poor sitaution, but 5,600 AV is a different matter.

As always, good luck with your battles.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Fishbed

GreyJoy, when you say that you left the railways undefended, did you at least put some scam units along the way? No reason to have it use the railways for free and let the cities open to paratroopers, while it would cost only a dozen AP points each time to interdict them...!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

If you are thinking of something up north I'd hold off. I've always liked Iwo Jima myself. I've taken it in the 2nd quarter of 1942 in several games. In another game I took the islands around Saipan/Guam in mid-42 which rather put a crimp in my opponent's plans as, previously, I'd allowed him to advance down towards Noumea with just enough resistance to make it seem like I was fighting a delaying action. In the end he actually had to drain fuel from AKs etc ( meaning his entire 3,000 AV invasion force of Noumea was trapped with no way home.... ever ) in order to gather enough to send some CAs and DDs back to Truk. Of course he hadn't planned for the CVs I had lying in wait just out of sight of Guadalcanal. My point is that if you hit something in the rear you can do more damage at less cost than going head to head with those front-line troops. IIRC I utilised a total of 600 AV and lost 4 xAK in the entire operation and I basically trapped half the SRA and he had to quit when I counter-invaded the Phillipines in September '42. If I'd put those 600 AV into Noumea they'd just have been destroyed by the 3,000 AV of IJA troops there. However, instead of being destroyed piecemeal they ended up winning me the war because I applied them to a critical and poorly defended point.

So, with less you CAN do more, if you think through your taskings and strategy imaginatively. Right now though you are dancing to his tune which means you aren't going to see those sorts of opportunities.

The key thing with those two operations though was that the either cut the SLOCs to forward IJN operations or allowed me to base bombers into areas where his SLOCs to the Phillipines/mainland China were. I'm just outlining why people are having issues with an attack on the front as opposed to an attack on something behind the front lines which can dislocate his forward operations, force them to turn inward and buy you much greater disruption at much lesser cost.

In addition hitting him somewhere he really doesn't expect will mean he'll have to begin garrisoning things much more. I'm sure he has, in this game, become used to a lack of raids etc and so is garrisoning very lightly.... make him pay for that.



With this said, at the very least losing India and China will simplify your strategic situation. After they fall he'll either come for Oz ( most likely ), Pearl Harbour or the Soviet Union. Probably he'll do Oz and PH in that order. Simplifying the strategic situation is, IMO, essential for you.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Couple of points:

1. If you wait for full prep then you will lose your opportunity. In three months time something else will have developed in the Pacific.

2. Numbers can make up for prep. 800 AV is far more than you'd need to take Iwo and Haha Jima at this stage of the war.

3. Bonins or Marianas. That's the choice.

4. Do you still hold Marcus and Wake?

5. Do you have ANY recon of the Bonins or Marianas? If not send subs to the various bases - they are the best way to get intel without it being noticed.

6. I don't think the correct approach for you here is to adopt another plan. I think the correct approach for you here is to work through the question and answer process of crafting a plan so you learn how to do that.... and can carry that knowledge through to other games. With that said, if done properly taking the Marianas or Bonins would be a good strike.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Ok I look forward to seeing your plan for a Bonins operation which should include, at least,
1. a timeline - I estimate you have a month, no more, for such an operation. Even that might be too late.

2. Deceptive ops.

3. Your force allocation, which force goes to which island

4. A decision about whether you go just for iwo and haha jimas or the third island as well.

5. How you are going to get fighters there.

6. A plan to take Marcus ( essential )

7. Your routing plans to get to the Bonins.

8. Underway replenishment TF size etc....

9. Escorts, whether CVs will be involved and suchlike.


You need to think it through in detail and be able to write it all down. This may take 4 or 5 pages. Then you need to be able to summarise it all in no more than 5 sentences ( short sentences ). If you can't do that summarising then you need to hone the plan until you can.

E.g. My Palembang strategy - which was the basis for the entire war plan could be summarised in about 4 sentences. That helped me maintain strategic focus and prioritise appropriately... something you'll need.

Again, learning the process of how to plan is more important than adopting the right plan for you right now.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Ok I look forward to seeing your plan for a Bonins operation which should include, at least,
1. a timeline - I estimate you have a month, no more, for such an operation. Even that might be too late.

A month is doable i think. Manila is ready to be stormed so those units will be eventually moved to the Pacific and i need to hurry up. Luckly almost everything is ready at PH now


2. Deceptive ops.

Not easy...we're still moving in Nopac so i guess the Marshalls and Nopac should be considered some deceptive ops. We're going to land at Baker very soon in order to test his dispotion and estabilish a Catalinas base there so that could be considered a deceptive op if we're gonna switch to Iwo later on.

3. Your force allocation, which force goes to which island

Yes, i need some more time to choose...

4. A decision about whether you go just for iwo and haha jimas or the third island as well.

IWO and Haha for sure...nothing more cause the third island has some 280mm guns

5. How you are going to get fighters there.

I have 4 AKV ready at PH and i'll bring with my CVs 5 extra Marine fighters groups (the devastators have been based at PH). Those fighters will provide extra CAP till the fleet is around, then they'll be based on the newly conquered islands. However i'll bring with me lots of fighters and dive bombers packed in AKs...

6. A plan to take Marcus ( essential )

Yes...i'm elaborating...
7. Your routing plans to get to the Bonins.

I'd say Midway and then north of Marcus...

8. Underway replenishment TF size etc....

I have a replenish TF which contains 200k fuel...plus i have some 30 TKs full of fuel to be moved to the theatre once it's conquered.
9. Escorts, whether CVs will be involved and suchlike.

Still planning here... however 5 single CV TFs will be used plus a CVE TF...


You need to think it through in detail and be able to write it all down. This may take 4 or 5 pages. Then you need to be able to summarise it all in no more than 5 sentences ( short sentences ). If you can't do that summarising then you need to hone the plan until you can.

E.g. My Palembang strategy - which was the basis for the entire war plan could be summarised in about 4 sentences. That helped me maintain strategic focus and prioritise appropriately... something you'll need.

Again, learning the process of how to plan is more important than adopting the right plan for you right now.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Couple of comments for you to consider:

When invading non-atolls all that matters is overall adjusted AV. When invading atolls what matters is the AV per man generated by a unit. Why is this? Stacking rules. The manual/others can explain why.

What this means for you is that you should ALWAYS stack atoll invasions with tank-heavy units and only when the atolls have more than enough tanks should you commit any to non-atolls.

Have you checked whether iwo and Haha-Jima or Marcus Island are atolls?

Also, those paras are wasted landing over the beach. Airdrop them using PBYs and they will halve defender AV on the day of the landing shock attack while freeing up space on the APs for more assault troops. End result by landing paras by air instead of by sea you'll halve the defender's AV while slightly increasing your own... all without committing a single extra soldier, but by committing them more cleverly.

This is the sort of thinking you need in India also... That simple change DOUBLES the effectiveness of your troops. If you could do that in a few places in India you might find yourself comfortably holding vs being destroyed in Karachi. Anyways, the paras are wasted amphibiously, scrub that, base them at a base within flying range of Marcus and airdrop them on the day you land your amphibious invasion. If not Marcus then Midway...

Reserves: Wasted in atoll invasions. Either invade with everything you have or send the reserve elsewhere. Maintaining a reserve just means forcing a shock attack when you land the reserve and doubly trashing the troops you've already landed which weren't enough to take the island. It'd be a disaster and do exactly the opposite of what you planned.


Overall it looks to me like you have found some 2,500 AV. That's a HUGE force. FAR more than you can ever fit onto the Bonins. I suggest you look into retaking Midway, Marcus, the 2 Bonins and some bases in the Northern Marianas. That would be a very significant strategic change. If it necessitated taking 6 bases you'd still find yourself with 400+ AV per base, more than enough to make retaking it a major problem for Japan, requiring full support from KB and the surface fleet.

This is far more than you need, far, far more. I can't remember the exact figure but I think I took out the entire Marshalls chain up to Truk ( about 6 separate invasions ) with 900 AV over the course of 3 or 4 days in early 42. That should give you an idea of how much overkill this force of 2,500 AV is... but overkill is good. I think you could create a significant strategic salient with this force, IF you move quickly and rely on mass to make up for lack of preparation.

quote:

ORIGINAL: SoliInvictus202

just a small side remark - as I'm not discussing strategies here:

30 TKs full of fuel won't do you much good if you don't have any ports large enough to unload them - even single TKs can take AGES to unload if you don't have enough Naval Support and large enough ports.... - and many of the targets you are considering have small ports, and building ports takes time especially if you're focus will be on airfields and forts....

just another thing to consider - it's probably a minor issue, but keeping your ships in moving condition, especially RUNNING AWAY FROM DANGER - is quite important if you're deep in enemy territory... -and the 200K Fuel on the AOs are used up rather quickly if you bring along 5 CVs with support ships....

EDIT: but as it seems you hold Midway - that's a huge difference...