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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 8:13:13 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

GreyJoy: In terms of your long-overdue fighters, how filled out are those squadrons? What I mean is that if they are operating at half their numbers, you might want to disband them in order to flesh out your other squadrons and save the PPs.

Keep up the good work. This is like watching Star Wars for the first timeas a kid.

Cheers,
CC


C.D., yes, after the prolonged and bloody battles of the last weeks i re-organized my squadrons, sending home those requested (the 3 AVGs and some other RAF and RAAF squadrons), so keeping pilots and airframes and mixting them among those groups that will remain on line. Now the only PPs i lose are those connected to the ships not withdrawn. I'm still keeping them cause those british DDs, CLs and CVs are badly needed at the moment...


August 4,5 1942

Another 2 days playing the "mouse".
The last Bde (the 5th) of the 2nd UK division safely arrived at Karachi using a fast amphib TF (20 knots) escorted by 4 DDs. This was done right under the nose of the KB which came again and positioned herself 6 hexes south of Karachi, close to Surat. To act as a bait for the KB i moved in from Aden also a SCTF composed of 3 CLs (Mauritius, Caledon and Colombo) and 6 DDs.
My fighters and bombers all had been ordered to stay down again at Karachi. Good call.
Rader came in with 300 fighters on sweep. The A6M2s are now retired and completely substituted by those damned A6M3s. However the fighters didn't find anything and got home without a single kill and with some more fatigue. He didn't send the bombers (for sure they're still recovering after the tremendous losses of the last weeks).
The KB launched 2 big strikes against Karachi harbour, targetting both ships and the port. Kates attacked from 20,000 ft to avoid my flak but didn't score a single hit (100 kates escorted by 50 zeros). As foreseen the Kates went after my CL division, leaving alone the amphib TF that could unload safely the brit bde and move back to Aden during the following day.
The Kates didn't manage to score a single hit on my fast and manouvrable ships.
A side note: the KB has fully replaced its losses and now its strenght seems to be up again at 100%.

A very good turn indeed.

Now that they've shown their face to the enemy my CLs will move back again to Aden. Hopefully Rader will send his usual SCTF to hunt my ships and the KB on naval strike, along with sweeps over Karachi.
If it will so he'll find an empty harbour and empty AFs...all my planes are moved to Hyderabad where 200 fighters will perform a 40%CAP at usual altitudes (P-38s and Hurri MkIIc at 31k, Hurri mkIIb at 20k, P-40s at 15k and P-39s at 9k or lower).
These days of "cat and mouse" have allowed me to refit my units with 15 new planes and to reorganize my groups. Now i equipped a 13 B-24 squadron with naval bombing pilots and prepared the british squadron that will be equipped with Vengeance (with naval bomb skilled pilots).
I need to gain time in order to arrive at the crucial moment (when he'll cross the LOD) with my fighter air force in the best condition possible. At the same time i cannot simply avoid the fight. Rader needs to know that i'm there and that i can still harm his precious air groups.
If i manage to arrive to the crucial moment in a good situation (meaning having groups fully prepared to recieve spits and those 72 hurris) i think i have the chance to contest the air supremacy for some time. Exactly the time i need to get those reinforcements to Karachi. It can be done!

My intelligence is following the movements of those 3500/4000 AVs of the "Manila" Army. They're now moving from Singers to Calcutta. I've counted at least 5 Inf Divisions and 1 tank division. I think Rader is waiting to cross in order to have all his eggs at hand...i'm seeing the BIG stack forming up at 44,19 (now 50 units) and i'm pretty sure he's ready to steamroll...but i think he'll wait to have the perfect STEAMROLLER weapon. Hopefully by the second half of the month i'll be able to equip the first airgroup with the new P38Fs so that i'll have 2 groups of P-38s operating at full strenght. At the same time i'm sweating to get to September when 65 P-40Ks will be available monthly.
My pilots pools remain in a good shape and those guys already operating in India now have gained an incredible experience and most of them are eligible for TRACOM.



(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 811
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 8:56:11 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline 		Ok, time to do some homework in math (which was not my favourite subject during the school years).

Let's say i manage to get 6500 AVs beyond 9 forts in a light urban hex.
Without taking into consideration other factors like supplies, how much AV must japan have to get a 1-1 ?

which is the formula? 6500 x 2 (terrain) x 9 (forts)?

How will the armoured units play in a urban hex? are they disadvantaged or not?


(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 812
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 9:50:29 AM   
String


Posts: 2661
Joined: 10/7/2003
From: Estonia
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Ok, time to do some homework in math (which was not my favourite subject during the school years).

Let's say i manage to get 6500 AVs beyond 9 forts in a light urban hex.
Without taking into consideration other factors like supplies, how much AV must japan have to get a 1-1 ?

which is the formula? 6500 x 2 (terrain) x 9 (forts)?

How will the armoured units play in a urban hex? are they disadvantaged or not?





6500 AV in a light urban hex with 9 forts is undefeatable as long as you have supplies and the forts hold. Your armor, by now, should be much better than the Japanese, expect to see his armored units devastated in the first attacks.

_____________________________

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Post #: 813
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 10:16:38 AM   
ilovestrategy


Posts: 3611
Joined: 6/11/2005
From: San Diego
Status: offline 		Greyjoy. I love how you present your AAR, its like a pageturner! 

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Now CIV IV has me in it's evil clutches!

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Post #: 814
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 10:40:43 AM   
beppi

 

Posts: 382
Joined: 3/11/2004
From: Austria
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Ok, time to do some homework in math (which was not my favourite subject during the school years).

Let's say i manage to get 6500 AVs beyond 9 forts in a light urban hex.
Without taking into consideration other factors like supplies, how much AV must japan have to get a 1-1 ?

which is the formula? 6500 x 2 (terrain) x 9 (forts)?

How will the armoured units play in a urban hex? are they disadvantaged or not?




It is not that easy to calculate the AV Japan needs. I usually divide the forts by 3 to get a correct value, this should be then 6500x2+3 = 32500.

So it is almost impossible to capture that base as long as you have supply there. The main problem is to bring the forts down. During that process you take usually that much disabled squads as attacker and killed engineers that it is quicker to rebuild the forts even to lvl 9 than bringing them down.

I had a fight for a fort lvl 9 base in open area (Shwebo) with around 3x the defenders AV. First attack was not that problematic to bring the forts down to lvl 8. But second attack around a week later with some bad rolls resulted in 800 disabled squads for the attacker, around 50 for the defender. Bombarding the defender resulted in destroyed artillery units for the attacker as lvl9 forts offer a massive protection.

With lvl 9 forts even constant air attacks with >200 4E resulted in almost no effect. Only airfield attacks to kill supply are working. The only way i could imagine to take that base is with around the clock naval bombardment as soon as you are contained in Karachi only. So think about a way to prevent that with mines, PTs and enough small stuff (DDs) which is hard to kill with KB but disrupts Naval bombardment TFS.

You too should start to think about the future. Sieging a city is a two way operation. He only needs around 3k AV to contain you there and you cannot use air attacks to weaken him as you cannot attack owned bases. It is a PITA to get sieging units out of a base, so the better way would be some landing somewhere in India sometimes in the future. So do not dump every unit you have into karachi. 6,5k AV is enough to defend it and use the reinforcing divisions for a counter invasion in India at begin of 1943 to force a retreat by him. You can even send a few US division to speed up that process.

For the air losses, yes they seem massive but i think that you opponent goes for a auto victory so he might have stopped most of his naval program and just producing as much airframes as possible and with a good pilot program he can sustain such losses for quite some time.







(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 815
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 12:28:21 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The defensive multiplier for the Allies should be 3x (urban plus 100% prep) plus whatever fort multiplier is then in effect. With 6,500 AV, the first attack agains the Allies may find the adjusted AV north of 35,000. Even if Japan brought 30 divisions 100% prepped, that would only be an adjusted AV of about 30k, and there's no way Japan will have the equivalent of 30 divisions.

Are you getting lots of SigInt that Japan is prepping units for Karachi? If not, are you getting SigInt about prep for other bases? What do you make of the SigInt?

It was suggested months ago that Japan's window to conquer India closes in September. By that point, the Allies are growing so strong that the task becomes impossible. There may be ways for rader to pull it off using the KB, massive combat ship bombardments, and a sustained massive air campaign, but the odds makers have to be abandoing rader now.

While you still must give your full attention to the defense of India, you have to be thinking ahead if you don't want to make as big a blunder as rader has made. You've got to be thinking how you're going to transition to the offensive in India (amphibious operations ought to figure heavily into your thinking) and in the Pacific (if rader really throws everything at India you know he's weak elsewhere).

I know China capitulated, which gives him more divisions to employ in India, but political points and garrison requirements should slow that.

Once the Allies go on the offensive in India, rader's army (assuming he has 15 or 20 or 25 divisions there) is going to be in big trouble. Withdrawing in the face of a powerful and aggressive army is very, very difficult. He's going to lose a heckuva lot of men.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/8/2011 12:30:13 PM >

(in reply to beppi)
Post #: 816
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 1:35:53 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline 		Hi all,

Thanks Beppi, String and CR for the insights

well defenetly Japan will need a good amount of men and time to get rid of Karachi. forts are up to 8 and 56%...so they're growing fast!
All the signtin reports i get are about units prepping for Jodpur...till now nothing concerning Karachi or Hyderabad...that's pretty strange to say the truth. Rader should know (he has had for months now recons flying over my positions and he must be well aware of what he's going to face there!
Concernuing the bombardment runs Rader cannot risk its BBs untill he has the full control of the skies over Karachi cause the presence of 50 torpedo bombers of mine there could really ruin his day (consider that i'm keeping 25 subs in those waters in order to wait for an opportunity shot) and also i'm keeping my RN BBs and my CVs at Aden just for the pourpose of sending there to Karachi if Rader dares to get there with his BBs...i have there mines and 3 CD units too...so not an easy prey!

I think it's too early to think about a future offensive in India. Scoodra and Diego are in his hands and with tons of Netties he could easily repulse every attempt of mine to land beyond his positions. To do that i'll have to bring my US CVs to the Indian ocean but then there's the KB there...so i think it's better to think about saving my butt first and use this long window to gain ground in the pacific.

For the latter my plans aren't changed. He's reinforcing a lot the Banda Sea islands so i'd like to avoid that route. My plans, at the moment, are the usual ones: Bonins and Gilberts, with the latters coming first acting as a "reinforced" diversion so to drain his attention here while the main blow will be delivered up north. Now i can count of 6 CVs...with a total strenght of 505 aircrafts...a decent platform i'd say in the absence of the KB.

I'm pretty confident the KB will stay out of the pacific for a long time now. If he crosses he'll have to keep it there in order to interrupt the communications between Aden and Karachi. He doesn't have many choices at the moment me think.

Now every day is leaving Adebadan a cargo with 3200 supplies. My intention is to keep a constant flow of supplies to Karachi...i have lots of transports to sacrifice for this goal and, as far as the experience of the last 3 months tells me, he cannot completely deny this flow...something will pass through!


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 817
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 2:40:14 PM   
jeffk3510


Posts: 4132
Joined: 12/3/2007
From: Kansas
Status: offline 		Keep in mind folks...he doesn't have 100% of the 6500 AV actually IN Karachi...it is rather spread out.

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Life is tough. The sooner you realize that, the easier it will be.

Currently chasing three kids around the Midwest.

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 818
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 2:51:48 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

Keep in mind folks...he doesn't have 100% of the 6500 AV actually IN Karachi...it is rather spread out.


3000 in Karachi, 3000 at Hyderabad (2 hexes far from Karachi) and 500 at Jodpur. I think, if i don't run crazy all of a sudden, that it's not that difficult to predict that at least 6000 of those 6500 will be easily moved back to Karachi safely

(in reply to jeffk3510)
Post #: 819
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 3:27:15 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


quote:

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

Keep in mind folks...he doesn't have 100% of the 6500 AV actually IN Karachi...it is rather spread out.


3000 in Karachi, 3000 at Hyderabad (2 hexes far from Karachi) and 500 at Jodpur. I think, if i don't run crazy all of a sudden, that it's not that difficult to predict that at least 6000 of those 6500 will be easily moved back to Karachi safely


...moreover i'm still confident i can bring at least two of the 6 divisions coming as emergency reinforcements to Karachi under the Umbrella of the Spits and with the coverage of the RN

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 820
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 4:53:00 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Look, if he actually does cross the LOD, you've got to assume he's going to impose an airtight blockade on Karachi.  He knows he doesn't have a chance if he allows those reinforcement divisions into Karachi, so he's going to impose a blockade using the KB, combat TFs to run bombardment and interdiction (covered by LRCAP), and a sustained campaign to try to shut down the airfield at Karachi.  He might not be able to accomplish that, but I guarantee you that any plan to cross the LOD includes that.

Well, if you think you can get at least 6k AV to Karachi and maybe more, you also get the Waristan Division, another 300 AV 100% prepped for Karachi.

If he isn't prepping for Karachi, he's not coming, because it would be insane to give away that AV multiplier.  He can't be planning to begin prep after he takes Jodpur or Hyderabad, because that would be laughable to think he then had rougly three months to get ready.  Come October and November, he's going to be retreating rather than being on the offensive.

GreyJoy, nobody said anything about you going on the offensive in India right now...the comment was that you need to begin planning for the offensives you will eventually undertake.  Contrary to your comment, it is in NO WAY too early for you to be thinking along these lines.  In fact, your are being very negligent in AE if you aren't always planning three to six (or even nine to twelve) months ahead of time.  Prep and logistics requires that kind of forethought, even if you sometimes (often) end up tweaking, modifying, or abandoning said plans for good reasons.

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Post #: 821
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 5:13:56 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline 		CR, thx for you comment, which, as always, makes lot of sense.

It will be bloody and depressing (but also aboslutely thrilling) to witness a airtight blocade on Karachi. My point is that to do that he must first of all conquer an AF decently close to Karachi. He cannot think of basing his blockade air force at Surat...that's simply too far away. He need Jodpur for sure...but, above all, he needs Hyderabad. And to get to Hyderabad it takes time, even if he runs like he did in China. To bring two amphib TFs to Karachi from Aden it only takes a week (using my fast xAPs). By the time he manages to get a strong air supremacy over Karachi (i bet he can achieve that) it will probably be a bit late. He needs his surface assets to close the way, but to use them without too many risks he must solve the problem posed by my torpedo bombers at Karachi. So he will need to shut down Karachi AF first...but a level 9 AF, with almost 9 forts, and 600 engeneers and 200 flak guns cannot be shut down easily...The KB, alone, cannot do the whole job. He needs to coordinate everything (LBA, SCTFs and KB) in the right timing...and probably hoping in some luck. In the meanwhile the presence of 72 spitfires and probably 100 hurricanes, along with 50/80 american fighters can, i think, distrupt this fragile coordination program.
The fact that he's not prepping everything for Karachi is, in fact, something really really strange...maybe he wants to isolate it first from Aden and then submit it during a prolongued siege with tons of bombers destroying my supplies...just like what he did with Manila where 2200 Allied AVs were not able, after the supplies were gone, to stop in a urban hex 3500 japanese AVs...


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 822
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 5:24:52 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		He doesn't have time for a Manila or Singapore siege.  If he crosses the line now, he's playing with fire.  He's going to get scorched.

But he will impose an airtight blockade of Karachi.  He will post the KB and combat ships offshore and rely on Naval CAP to protect his ships from your LBA.  He's got to do that, because he can't afford to allow reinforcements in (nor could he for the past three months, but if he does decide at this very late date to cross the LOD, you might as well figure you're not going to be bringing any ships for awhile).

Are you keeping track of enemy divisions - where they are and what prep reports you've gotten?  If you don't have any SigInt about his divisions, it could be they are prepping for Karachi and you just haven't lucked into SigInt reports for those units yet.  But if you're getting reports of divisions prepping for other bases - Jodpur, Hyderabad, etc., the guy is nuts.  Certifiably, unarguably nuts.

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 823
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 5:34:04 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline 		Not signin for Divisions but for Artillery, tanks, AA, and Eng units...all prepped for Jodpur...
For what concerns the blockade i have many warships to spare and sacrifice in the process and i'm willing to do so if this can allow me to bring men and needed supplies to Karachi.
Anyway it all depends on how much will he be able to push forward with the attack. Till now he proved himself strong for sure, but not strong enough to completeley isolate Karachi and, considering everything, i think my losses in terms of ships have been pretty low...it will be something like Malta...with the difference the the axis didn't have any KB in the Med :)

However soon we'll see what are Rader's plans. I'm really curious too. Think within a week by now he'll have most of his "Manila" army ashore at Calcutta, so let's say within 2 weeks he'll have everything in position to cross the LOD. We'll so be reaching the third week of August 42...semptember is right behind the corner...it's gonna be interesting! Can't wait to see it!!

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 824
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 5:41:58 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		You may not need to bring any more reinforcements to Karachi.  With roughly 6,300 to 6,800 AV in place, that's enough to handle as much as 30 enemy divisions by my calculations.  He won't have that many.  But he could really mess you up by bottling up your entire army in Karachi.  He could probably do so with 5,000 AV very long term, as he'll also benefit from the urban terrain multiplier.  How would you like to attack 5,000 x 2 enemy AV with 6,500 or even 9,500 AV?  It might be very ugly.  Meanwhile, he can just bottle up much of your army, thus eliminating any worries he might have that the Allies could mount a major campaign elsewhere in theater.

But if you keep the reinforcement AV at Aden, he then has to worry about and plan for Allied amphibious moves on Socatra and other locales.  If he doesn't know where your carriers are, he has to worry that carrier-based CAP can protect such an invasion force from LBA.

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Post #: 825
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 5:44:44 PM   
hkbhsi

 

Posts: 96
Joined: 4/22/2007
From: Rome, Italy
Status: offline 		GreyJoy,
first of all congratulations on your AAR, it is really very interesting.

For what is worth I will offer my 2c on the situation.

I believe that at this point Raeder will not cross the LOD because, as you mentioned already, it will be basically impossible to defeat 6000AV entrenched in Karachi and doing this it will also give you all those reinforcements for free.

My idea is that, by making you believe with his action that is going to come soon, he is trying to achieve a few things:

- focus your attention in India while he prepares his defensive perimeter everywhere else;
- try to force you to make a desperate move and commit your CVs or other strategic assets in a battle on terms of his choice;
- attrit your Air Force so badly that it will take a long time for it to be ready for offensive action.

My opinion is that he is achieving all of the above because:

- you have been forced to concentrate mostly on that corner of the map. You have been so concerned on Karachi that you have used a million political points in retaining all those units due for withdrawal. In effect he has gained a few months worth of time before you can buy units from Conus to use in offensive action;

- even though his air losses have been severe, at this point he can build as many planes as he likes, especially since by conquering China and India he has increased his industrial capacity by a big margin. Contrary to what someone else said before, with what he gained so far he doesn't need to stop naval production to build a lot of planes.

- by forcing you to commit your most useful offensive weapon (the 4es) trying to stop his land advance, he has killed a lot of them in action that was actually not very dangerous for him. As production level of 4Es is very low and it will take time to replenish all those groups , every bomber lost now is one less bomber to support your future offensive.


What I would do right now is:

- start planning your offensive for the area you think is best (the Pacific is a good bet)

- withdraw immediately all air and naval units overdue and start getting PPS again;

- refuse to give battle in the air over Karachi and start replenish your reserve of fighters; let his bomber be shot down by your flak and cause marginal damage at best if they bomb your troops;

- refuse to lose a single B17 or B24 trying to bomb his troops or his airfield. Even if you kill 10 planes for every 4E lost, it is a gain for him. I actually believe that he is inviting you to do so to kill them.

- move at least some of your subs stationed near Karachi to interdict his shipping routes in the DEI; right now he is freely hauling oil and fuel to the HI with little trouble. That is what makes his economy go.

Alex.




(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 826
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 11:25:00 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: hkbhsi

GreyJoy,
first of all congratulations on your AAR, it is really very interesting.

For what is worth I will offer my 2c on the situation.

I believe that at this point Raeder will not cross the LOD because, as you mentioned already, it will be basically impossible to defeat 6000AV entrenched in Karachi and doing this it will also give you all those reinforcements for free.

My idea is that, by making you believe with his action that is going to come soon, he is trying to achieve a few things:

- focus your attention in India while he prepares his defensive perimeter everywhere else;
- try to force you to make a desperate move and commit your CVs or other strategic assets in a battle on terms of his choice;
- attrit your Air Force so badly that it will take a long time for it to be ready for offensive action.

My opinion is that he is achieving all of the above because:

- you have been forced to concentrate mostly on that corner of the map. You have been so concerned on Karachi that you have used a million political points in retaining all those units due for withdrawal. In effect he has gained a few months worth of time before you can buy units from Conus to use in offensive action;

- even though his air losses have been severe, at this point he can build as many planes as he likes, especially since by conquering China and India he has increased his industrial capacity by a big margin. Contrary to what someone else said before, with what he gained so far he doesn't need to stop naval production to build a lot of planes.

- by forcing you to commit your most useful offensive weapon (the 4es) trying to stop his land advance, he has killed a lot of them in action that was actually not very dangerous for him. As production level of 4Es is very low and it will take time to replenish all those groups , every bomber lost now is one less bomber to support your future offensive.


What I would do right now is:

- start planning your offensive for the area you think is best (the Pacific is a good bet)

- withdraw immediately all air and naval units overdue and start getting PPS again;

- refuse to give battle in the air over Karachi and start replenish your reserve of fighters; let his bomber be shot down by your flak and cause marginal damage at best if they bomb your troops;

- refuse to lose a single B17 or B24 trying to bomb his troops or his airfield. Even if you kill 10 planes for every 4E lost, it is a gain for him. I actually believe that he is inviting you to do so to kill them.

- move at least some of your subs stationed near Karachi to interdict his shipping routes in the DEI; right now he is freely hauling oil and fuel to the HI with little trouble. That is what makes his economy go.

Alex.






Grazie Alex! Very interesting lecture of the situation.

If Rader isn't coming for Karachi and not crossing the LOD...well...i will consider this my first victory. I have no doubt that Rader, when it all begun, wanted to conquer the whole sub-continent. The fact that he has used so many of his assets is clearly a demonstration that he wanted to go till the very end. So if, after 4 months of prolonged combats he finally has dropped the idea of crossing...well...the future will surely look brighter for me.
I don't think he's reinforcing elsewhere. I count now at least 200/250 units in India. The bulk of his AA and engeneers units are there. I'm sure of that. If he was digging elsewhere he would need right those units.
The loss of PPs is for sure a problem for me but i don't think this was part of his plan. He could not predict that when it all begun.
At the same time if it's true that i could not buy any more units...i had time to fortify my starting bases in CENTPAC and SOPAC and to secure my communication lines between WC and OZ.
Losses of 4Es were for sure important...but my pools never went dry and their presence alone have forced him to committ all those AAs at Surat and that means they are not anywhere else...so it's a double edged sword for both of us.


What I would do right now is:

- start planning your offensive for the area you think is best (the Pacific is a good bet)

Doing that.

- withdraw immediately all air and naval units overdue and start getting PPS again;

Think in 2 weeks it will be done. The only problem is the CV Formidable...i badly need her...

- refuse to give battle in the air over Karachi and start replenish your reserve of fighters; let his bomber be shot down by your flak and cause marginal damage at best if they bomb your troops;

Doing that...but don't want to let completely the controll of the skies to him. I'll try to be as smart as possible and give battle only when i see a favourable condition...

- refuse to lose a single B17 or B24 trying to bomb his troops or his airfield. Even if you kill 10 planes for every 4E lost, it is a gain for him. I actually believe that he is inviting you to do so to kill them.

I plan to use them only to suppress his AFs when he'll be advancing....if he crosses the LOD. If not...i'm not gonna waste them

- move at least some of your subs stationed near Karachi to interdict his shipping routes in the DEI; right now he is freely hauling oil and fuel to the HI with little trouble. That is what makes his economy go.

Would like to...but at the moment my subs are too valuable as a shield of Karachi. With all those subs there he cannot drive as free as he'd like with his navy into those waters...however i'm sending some more subs from pacific to CT for this goal...

Alex...your comments have been very very useful. You are singing out of the choir with your analisys and that helps to see things under a different angle. Thanks a lot! Really!


(in reply to hkbhsi)
Post #: 827
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/8/2011 11:30:15 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You may not need to bring any more reinforcements to Karachi.  With roughly 6,300 to 6,800 AV in place, that's enough to handle as much as 30 enemy divisions by my calculations.  He won't have that many.  But he could really mess you up by bottling up your entire army in Karachi.  He could probably do so with 5,000 AV very long term, as he'll also benefit from the urban terrain multiplier.  How would you like to attack 5,000 x 2 enemy AV with 6,500 or even 9,500 AV?  It might be very ugly.  Meanwhile, he can just bottle up much of your army, thus eliminating any worries he might have that the Allies could mount a major campaign elsewhere in theater.

But if you keep the reinforcement AV at Aden, he then has to worry about and plan for Allied amphibious moves on Socatra and other locales.  If he doesn't know where your carriers are, he has to worry that carrier-based CAP can protect such an invasion force from LBA.


Yes, that's true. But i fear of those 6500 AVs only a fraction will be valuable as combat assets (basically the 2 Aus Divisions, the 2 UK divisions, the Indian divisions and the indipendent bdes. The rest is AVs of base forces and small BNs without any heavy equipment). I'd really like to have a couple more divisions at hand at Karachi for the final onslaught. The rest could be sitting at Aden...
The 15th Army is at scoodra...that means i'll need something more than 2000 AVs to dislodge a force that i must assume is strong and behind 9 lvl forts...However if he wants me in the corner he'll have to committ lots of forces to India (Diego, Scodra, Colombo, Surat, Bombay and Karachi of course)...and those forces won't be guarding Sumatra, Java or the DEI in general....again it's a double edged sword for both of us

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 828
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/9/2011 12:08:33 AM   
Andy Mac

 

Posts: 15222
Joined: 5/12/2004
From: Alexandria, Scotland
Status: offline 		ISF Bns are not worth it in this kind of defence nor are the Indpt Indian Bns they will be inneffective after a siongle attack I would spread tyhem out to act as raiders by coming back onto the main road and rail arteries after he advances

YTou need a solid core of 5,000 AV from Divs and Bdes if you have that backed by Indpt Arty you will be fine I think

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 829
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/9/2011 2:50:01 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		GreyJoy, I like most of the advice one of the posters gave you, but you should employ your 4EBs in a variety of ways throughout the campaign. Assuming rader crosses the LOD, you'll be fighting the most important campaign of the game. The survival of the Allied army and India will be at stake, and if you prevail, a huge Japanese army will be in great peril. You need to bring everything to the battle that you can.

Once Japan crosses the LOD, you ought to hit his his advancing infantry and armor as often as you can to slow them to a crawl. They have a long way to go, and you might be able to turn a one week journey into two or three; or a one month march into two or three. Every day, every week, is a blow to Japan at this point.

(in reply to Andy Mac)
Post #: 830
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/9/2011 7:01:36 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

GreyJoy, I like most of the advice one of the posters gave you, but you should employ your 4EBs in a variety of ways throughout the campaign. Assuming rader crosses the LOD, you'll be fighting the most important campaign of the game. The survival of the Allied army and India will be at stake, and if you prevail, a huge Japanese army will be in great peril. You need to bring everything to the battle that you can.

Once Japan crosses the LOD, you ought to hit his his advancing infantry and armor as often as you can to slow them to a crawl. They have a long way to go, and you might be able to turn a one week journey into two or three; or a one month march into two or three. Every day, every week, is a blow to Japan at this point.



Agree CR. Completely. I think this is the decisive battle of the war. Kind of an asiatic Stalingrad. We need to use all our assets!
However i'll wait till he crosses before lunching them...i want to use them wisely nonetheless, meaning that i'd like to force him to LRCAP from a distance that makes almost useless his Nicks that are now Capping the 44,19 hex (where 50 units are massing).

soon i'll update the last 4 days of war

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 831
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/9/2011 8:25:41 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline 		August 6, 7, 8, 9 1942

The last 4 days of war didn't show anything much different.
Rader keeps on sending 300/350 fighters on sweep missions every day over Karachi, followed by 150 bombers (the number of bombers have significantly decreased since the last month) that attack at 20k causing no serious harm to the port and airfields of Karachi, just a couple of destroyed planes on the ground per turn (mostly useless waipiti or blenheims). I always refused to give any opposition cause i'm still trying to figure out which is the best way to employ my 200 last fighters. Now that only A6M3a are operating the situation has pretty much changed. Most of my fighters operate with a max alt of 20k so those damned new generation zeros always come higher and they can engage my planes in an energy fight that i'm bound to lose. However the new P-38s are coming online and hopefully by the end of the month i'll be able to get enough modern fighters (say P-38s of HurriMkIIc) to be able to give him a decent opposition.
The KB remains parked there, along with what seems a BBTF...i'm pretty sure he's ready to try the first naval bombardment. All my subs are positioned in the correct position in order to make him burn some precious op points and i'm also sending in some more DDs to Karachi in order to be able to cause him some problems.
Supply consumption is however becoming a problem. I took track of the situation and i must admit that supplies are burning faster than what i thought. 400k left now, despite the costant flow from Aden.
To say the truth that "constant" flow hasn't been really a river...2900/3500 supplies per day coming from Aden but that's probably just enough to keep the decrease limited, for sure not enough to encrease the total amount of supplies stocked.
The only good news is that forts in Karachi, despite 4 days of bombings, have been built up till 65% to lvl 9...we're almost there

Anyway, i'm managing to equip a B24 liberator squadron (16 planes) only with pilots with 70 in Naval Bombing skill. As soon as this guys are ready in their place we'll try to see if we can get any luck against the KB...you never know...

It's amazing to see how much fuel the allied fleet drink in the pacific. Despite months of convoys delivering it, i'm always short of fuel everywhere (from PH to Suva, passing through Christmas Isl and Pago Pago).
In Oz i managed to deliver 200k fuel...not even enough to mount a little naval operation (and i switched off the HI long time ago...). All my TKs are in use and also a lot of xAKs are being used with this pourpose...but we're always short!

Intel keeps on telling me about a HUGE number of big units moving to Calcutta by sea...65th Bde and 57th divisions were just the last two mentioned...seems that Rader is bringing in everything included the kitchen sink!

In the Aleutinas, we're consolidating our new perimeter that goes up to Amkicitka Island. Forts, AFs, Ports are been building fast, and, even if with a slow pace, aux troops, ships and planes are delivered to the theatre.


(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 832
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/9/2011 8:32:54 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

ISF Bns are not worth it in this kind of defence nor are the Indpt Indian Bns they will be inneffective after a siongle attack I would spread tyhem out to act as raiders by coming back onto the main road and rail arteries after he advances

YTou need a solid core of 5,000 AV from Divs and Bdes if you have that backed by Indpt Arty you will be fine I think


Yes Andy, if my calculations are correct, i have at the moment 4500 AVs between Divisions (Aus,Brit and Ind) and Bde, plus a good amount of armoured units for another 600 AVs. Arty shoudln't be a problem me think...

However i'd really love to have 2 more good divisions with me...just to be sure...

(in reply to Andy Mac)
Post #: 833
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/9/2011 1:50:00 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Intel keeps on telling me about a HUGE number of big units moving to Calcutta by sea...65th Bde and 57th divisions were just the last two mentioned...seems that Rader is bringing in everything included the kitchen sink!



I wonder if these units will be sent by rail to deal with the Dehli area once the LOD switch is flipped? Seal off any supply leaks into Karachi, secure the big pile's eastern flank, and, after dealing with Dehli and points north, swing west to further seal the Karachi perimeter.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 834
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/9/2011 1:52:41 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


However i'd really love to have 2 more good divisions with me...just to be sure...


As much as you're paying attention to the air war it will be and always was going to be a supply story at Karachi. Once you get LOD units you need to carefully consider where you want them to fill out their replacements. Sending them to Karachi to do it there would send your supply numbers down like an Otis elevator.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 835
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/10/2011 6:48:10 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline 		Sorry guys, busy days and not be able to update today. However 4 more days have passed and every doubt is gone. Rader is coming. 3 Army stacks are massing on the borders and Rader in his mails almost explicitly (sp?!) told me he's finally decided to come for Karachi...

So let's be ready. Few days and the show will begin!


(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 836
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/10/2011 7:22:36 AM   
LoBaron


Posts: 4776
Joined: 1/26/2003
From: Vienna, Austria
Status: offline 		Good luck GreyJoy!

Following your AAR with great interest, you got so many good advisors that adding another
one would be superficial, so I´ll keep quiet and just watch the carnage.

_____________________________


(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 837
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/10/2011 7:40:58 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Intel keeps on telling me about a HUGE number of big units moving to Calcutta by sea...65th Bde and 57th divisions were just the last two mentioned...seems that Rader is bringing in everything included the kitchen sink!



I wonder if these units will be sent by rail to deal with the Dehli area once the LOD switch is flipped? Seal off any supply leaks into Karachi, secure the big pile's eastern flank, and, after dealing with Dehli and points north, swing west to further seal the Karachi perimeter.


That is surely a possibility. As far as i can tell Rader is massing 3 different stakcs (one north of Surat, one north of Indore - att 44,19 - and one in the area of Cowpore) so probably he'll take all the 3 different vectors in order to close at once all the route to/from Karachi-Hyderabad.

Every supply is already massed at Karachi and Hyderabad, so i cannot do anything more at the moment...

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 838
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/10/2011 8:15:58 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


However i'd really love to have 2 more good divisions with me...just to be sure...


As much as you're paying attention to the air war it will be and always was going to be a supply story at Karachi. Once you get LOD units you need to carefully consider where you want them to fill out their replacements. Sending them to Karachi to do it there would send your supply numbers down like an Otis elevator.


Yup, i'm focusing on it mate. I gotta say i'm a little bit scared by the supply consumption. I'm sending every day those 3500/4000 supplies but cannot do more at the moment cause Aden and Abadan produce very little supply each day.
For sure when he'll be crossing i'll have to focus more on the supply problem than on the troops one. However i've seen that there are some good Infantry units that were supposed to spawn at Madras and will probably arrive at Karachi instead (chindits bdes, some armoured units, an Indian division...) so probably it will really not be needed to send that many reinforcements to Karachi...instead we'll have to keep Karachi as supplied as possible...will be a tough task!

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 839
RE: The Mother of all Air Battles - 6/10/2011 5:36:58 PM   
Andy Mac

 

Posts: 15222
Joined: 5/12/2004
From: Alexandria, Scotland
Status: offline 		It should improve when you are no longer building lvl 9 forts

Also what size is the base I think the larger it is the less spoilag you suffer.

As soon as he crosses you need to making sure that every base is minimally garrisoned to stop para landings to sieze railroads make sure you have those Bns spread out everywhere also dont forget the fast moving Armoured Car Bns on the Delhi side where they can move fast and delay him.

Lastly on reflection when he crosses I would maybe pull in a Div or 2 especially the low exp ones - a sige is great training to get a couple of low xp divs up

Andy

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 840
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