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Crossing the Dnepr - 8/18/2011 10:53:05 PM   
Q-Ball


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The Rivers of Russian are frozen solid, which means it's time to begin the main phase of the Winter Offensive: Crossing the Dnepr!

MOSCOW:

We continue to slog on either side of Moscow. Tarhunnas's defense in depth is preventing any breakthroughs at all. He is also conceding hexes of Moscow rather than risk encirclement; only W Moscow is still in Fascist hands. The rest is liberated.

I pulled a few units for the SOUTH, but we are going to keep the pressure up, to prevent Tarhunnas from doing the same.

CENTER:

It is very slow going here; he heavily reinforced the Hungarians in the Kursk bulge; the Panzer Corps there is preventing me from making more than a hex or two of progress.

North of Poltava, we advanced 1 hex along a fairly broad front

SOUTH:

Here was the main action.

I didn't want to tip my hand too much, but I did get artillery and 4 Guards Corps opposite the Romanians, I think undetected. They attacked accross the Ice, clearing 5 hexes, and getting troops to the other side in each place. One of those units that crossed was a Guards Rifle Corps; it's unlikely he can push them back. So I should be firmly accross. I expect Panzers to show-up here shortly.

I just railroaded in the 2nd Tank Army, consisting of 3 Guards Tank Corps, 2 Mech Corps, and a Guards Cav Corps. This is commanded by Rotmitsov. I think we can cause some trouble here....




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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/18/2011 11:06:59 PM   
Q-Ball


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Status: offline 		12/3/42: Death by Numbers

Here is the disturbing part, though, which is probably going to end this game sometime in 1943: I don't think the Wehrmacht can take this very long.

German strength is dwindling again, to just above 2.9 mil, while I make-good my losses. The last two turns, I have been less than 2-1 in Manpower. I have lost PILES of Tanks, but I have thousands in the pool; I am losing close to 800 a turn, but I estimate I can sustain that pace for 10-12 more turns at least before even dipping into the M3 Grants and other crappy tank types. I am building over 520 Light/Medium tanks a turn, and I have 3,200 in the pool (T-60,M3 Stuarts,Matildas,Valentines,t-34s). It would take massive losses to feel the pinch. This is despite me creating lots of Tank Units.

Frankly, I don't think any player, no matter how good, can run the Wehrmacht through losses like this. Maybe under 1.05 it will be different, since with fewer Reds, and lower-morale Red Army, and higher-morale Germans, and more Germans through use of Hiwis....maybe all those factors allow Tarhunnas to launch a credible 1942 offensive. Which would kill more Reds, and capture Manpower, all of which would mean I would now have much less than 7.6 mil guys, and they would be lower morale to boot.

At this point, Tarhunnas is doomed to grind it out until the Wehrmacht collapses, and I don't think he can do anything about it. My attacks have about Zero tactical subtlety, other than accumulating mass, and sending everyone over the top. Tarhunnas's dispositions make breakthroughs pretty much impossible, because there are always trenches to retreat to for him, which is good defensive design. That doesn't keep the Wehrmacht from getting slowly ground to death though.

As soon as I get more Vehicles, I am going to put even more tanks on the board. I will start creating lots of Assault Gun Regts, and attach those to every Rifle Corps. I basically will push it as far as production, and available attachment slots will allow. AFVs are a great firepower multiplier, and pushing it to the max, I can get so much firepower at the front the Wehrmacht will collapse completely. And there is nothing Tarhunnas can do about it.

My next PBEM will be as Germans, and I hope I have more of a chance than this. Looking at Soviet production is enough to make a German player depressed!





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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/19/2011 3:36:45 PM   
olivier34

 

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Status: offline 		Those numbers are very impressive and you are right, it is depressing for a german player...But you need to be very well organized to deal with so many men and armament, don't you ?
Great AAR ! thanks
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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/19/2011 4:53:32 PM   
KenchiSulla


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Status: offline 		I am currently playing a "Soviet" game vs Helio and am keeping track of vehicle position of the SU across the game.. it seems the reds have it to easy in the supply situation to me!

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/19/2011 7:40:13 PM   
ComradeP

 

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Status: offline 		Q-Ball, keep in mind that at some point your mobile corps will all start requesting SU's (as in: the assault guns) or ISU's, so don't go overboard with SU support units as the production rate isn't great aside from the SU-76M, which is in turn not a great assault gun, a poor man's StuG.

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/23/2011 2:55:36 PM   
Q-Ball


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Status: offline 		12/17/42: Blizzard

The Red Army's Winter offensive continues. Some important geographic points have fallen, but more importantly, the Wehrmacht appears seriously strained.

MOSCOW:

Tarhunnas abandoned the rest of Moscow the last couple turns, and we have already pushed a couple hexes West.

Mostly what this does is simplify the railnet, as alot of lines converge around Moscow, so transportation got alot easier. The Railyards will improve rail capacity once fixed, though I don't feel short of rail capacity anyway, so not sure it really matters.

We are going to continue pushing WEST here. We already have troops in place, and we can still bleed the Wehrmacht, so attacks continue. Next stop: Vyazma!

BRYANSK:

Bryansk was abandoned by Tarhunnas. I think he is running out of trench here, and this appears to be a problem area for him. I am railing a few more units here to push a bit harder. By attacking NW, I might force him to pull the Moscow forces back toward Smolensk.

SOUTH:

Poltava fell, and we are pushing SW along a broad front, about 1 hex per turn. German casualties have been frightful in this sector, and the Italians have taken it on the chin as well.

DNEPR:

I sense this sector is close to collapse. The forts have basically run-out, and there isn't any defensive terrain short of the Carpathians, at least not until the rivers thaw. My biggest problem is just moving enough units up to sustain attacks. This problem will go away in a couple turns, when January hits and I spend my AP hoard on Corps.

Red Army Status:

This turn, we inflicted 45,000 axis casualties, for 65,000 Russian. That is a terrible ratio for Tarhunnas, and just not good. Not much he can do about it either, other than running for Poland.

My APs are up to 425; I have been hoarding to wait for January, when Rifle Corps are 10 instead of 20 APs, and will use them to make as many as I can right away. That will clean up the unit clutter near the front.

My Vehicle situation is bad; 125K, vs. a need of 200K. Part of that is the weather, but when 1943 hits, I need to accumulate a bigger reserve. By my calculations, I should gain about 2,000 trucks a turn if I don't build anything, so I plan to do that for 2-3 months to hopefully close that gap a bit, before starting again on Tank Regts and Mech Corps. In 1944 you get 6000 a turn Lend Lease, which should solve all problems very quickly!




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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/23/2011 3:02:44 PM   
Flaviusx


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Status: offline 		Out of curiosity, how many of these are marginal 1-1 sorts of attacks Q-ball? Is the dreaded +1 rule inflating results here?



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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/23/2011 4:15:04 PM   
Q-Ball


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Out of curiosity, how many of these are marginal 1-1 sorts of attacks Q-ball? Is the dreaded +1 rule inflating results here?


I would say the vast majority. I am lining-up attacks mostly by only using enough units to go over 1-1 on visible CV. Sometimes just a bit over, sometimes much over. Most of the time, this works. I try to "save" a couple units to exploit or at least move into the vacated hex. There is no doubt I am pushing the limits on this, because I want to see if the game is "broken" into 1943, by pushing the Red Army to the limit.

I am on the fence in the 1-1 or 2-1 debate. I would like to see the other changes first; elminating that rule, AND changing morale and replacements and all that stuff, I think that might risk overcorrection. Without it, it should be very possible for the Germans to build a fortified wall in 1942 that cannot be breached.

A bigger problem is that the Wehrmacht suffers way too high retreat losses, IMO.



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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/23/2011 4:17:55 PM   
76mm


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
I am on the fence in the 1-1 or 2-1 debate. I would like to see the other changes first; elminating that rule, AND changing morale and replacements and all that stuff, I think that might risk overcorrection. Without it, it should be very possible for the Germans to build a fortified wall in 1942 that cannot be breached.

A bigger problem is that the Wehrmacht suffers way too high retreat losses, IMO.


This is my view as well, although I am not 100% sure. To get a 2:1 attack on a German stack in a level 4 fort would be a real challenge.

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/23/2011 4:20:50 PM   
Flaviusx


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Status: offline 		The rule is under review. My own view, based on these results and others, is that it needs to go by this point of the game. It makes things a bit too easy in 1942 as the Soviet can contrive to launch many such attacks.

But no promises, that's just my own opinion.

As for the possibility of a wall that cannot be breached, I personally doubt this. Once the Red Army hits its stride in 1943 no fortified line can stop it. It's just a question of the proper application of overwhelming force. I'm more concerned that the process is being accelerated artificially by this rule.



< Message edited by Flaviusx -- 8/23/2011 4:26:49 PM >

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/23/2011 4:27:44 PM   
Q-Ball


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

The rule is under review. My own view, based on these results and others, is that it needs to go by this point of the game. It makes things a bit too easy in 1942 as the Soviet can contrive to launch many such attacks.

But no promises, that's just my own opinion.


If forts were easier to crack, then that would balance it out. Because it's tough to get 2-1 on level-4 forts. But if those are easier to crack, or there ain't that many, then the rule should go.

I will say the Germans will get slaughtered in the open with a +1 rule as it stands.

No matter what, I think the Germans need help, and the Soviets are too powerful. I shouldn't be able to roll the Wehrmacht up and down the line like this.

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/23/2011 4:31:30 PM   
Flaviusx


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Status: offline 		The forts can be cracked with ease once you've got the guns. Trust me on this. It's all about piling on the artillery. And I do mean pile.


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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/23/2011 4:55:48 PM   
Mynok


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I can tell you from experience that Flavius is right. NO forts...NONE whatsoever...will hold against a Russian attack once they get their artillery parks and guards rifle corps.


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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/23/2011 6:12:10 PM   
KenchiSulla


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mynok


I can tell you from experience that Flavius is right. NO forts...NONE whatsoever...will hold against a Russian attack once they get their artillery parks and guards rifle corps.



As it should be...

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/24/2011 3:19:48 AM   
Q-Ball


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Christmas isn't kind to the Wehrmacht; this turn, we inflicted 63,000 Axis losses during our attacks; we lost 85,000 (plus 750 tanks; added to the losses from German phase, and that's 1,100 for the turn!). I still have surplus in the AFV pool though; I might actually run out if I burn up 1000 a turn. I am just short of 40,000 AFV losses.

I made even more successful attacks than last turn; basically almost one for every hex of the front south of Moscow. I am fully exploiting the +1 rule to multiply attacks and bleed the Axis more fully. I am certain it's working.

This game is basically over; I highly doubt we will play into 1944. I am now just playing to see how far we can push the engine, and build a bigger case to help the German side, because no player can withstand this kind of pounding. Tarhunnas is being a good sport and hanging in.

So, I am trying my best and playing like it's close, even though there is no way I could screw it up at this point, IMO.

I should finish the spring at the gates of Kiev, with a strong campaign into the Ukraine in 1943. I am about a year ahead of schedule vs. historical.

Attached you can see the big problem areas for the Germans




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Q-Ball -- 8/24/2011 3:23:04 AM >

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/29/2011 9:11:08 PM   
Q-Ball


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Status: offline 		UPDATE:

This game has slowed to a crawl, mostly due to Tarhunnas's RL issues, though I've been busy in RL anyway due to a flooded basement, so needed a break.

We are at 12/31/42; last turn was more of the same pounding on the Wehrmacht. At this point, I am not sure there is much to learn from this one, as any result from here on out, it would be difficult to determine how much the 1.04 rules vs. 1.05 played a role. Certainly, 1942 was NOT a German offensive!

The first 38 turns through the Blizzard though are pretty valid, and probably good material. I certainly have learned some things that I will take forward.

We are still chugging, but I am going to suggest to Tarhunnas we put this down when 1.05 comes out, and I will start a new PBEM, probably as Germans, and hopefully vs. Tarhunnas, who is a gracious and skilled opponent. I would like to play someone who writes an AAR, because it seemed like the gallery got alot out of a "dual aar".

Not over yet, but I sense this is closing. Hope everyone enjoyed the AAR, at least through the Blizzard!

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/29/2011 10:08:31 PM   
Klydon


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Status: offline 		Yep, it was entertaining and a great read by both players.

I would like to see a rematch between you two with the 1.05 version for sure.

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/29/2011 10:29:11 PM   
Ketza


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Status: offline 		Was a great AAR that I followed daily. The writing however is on the wall.

look forward to the rematch!

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/30/2011 1:01:39 AM   
Peltonx


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Status: offline 		Yes, both very good AAR's.

Good peeps also.

Pelton

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/30/2011 1:46:12 AM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
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Status: offline 		Yes this AAR and Pelton vs Hoooper clearly shows how 1v1=2v1 unbalances the game and tweaking things can't fix it.
1v1=2v1 can in an of itself bleed the German army dry during 42 and early 43.

The combat results are about the same in both games

The Russian player takes 80 to 90k a turn in losses, but has 120k replasements per turn. so hes adding 40k a turn.
The German player suffers about 70k a turn and only replaces about 30k a turn lossing 40k per turn. These losses increase as the German army moral drops.

Another thing that 1v1=2v1 effects during the 42 summer is that as the German you can't hope to cut off any units unless you have atleast a strong 2 hex ring around the cut off units, if your playing an equaly skilled player.




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< Message edited by Pelton -- 8/30/2011 9:58:35 AM >

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/30/2011 2:10:16 AM   
mmarquo


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Status: offline 		There were somewhere between 6 - 10,000,000 Axis casualties (KIA + prisoners) on the Eastern Front; assume about 4 years or 208 week of combat; this means an average of 29,000 - 48,000 casualties per week. What were the Axis losses in the AARs which have been played through to the bitter end?

Marquo

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/30/2011 5:23:46 PM   
Mehring

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

The rule is under review. My own view, based on these results and others, is that it needs to go by this point of the game. It makes things a bit too easy in 1942 as the Soviet can contrive to launch many such attacks.

As the manual says “Amateurs study tactics; professionals study logistics.” Unfortunately, this is lip service. The game pays minute detail to the 'boys' stuff like squad and equipment types, yet doesn't even make full use of the good but, in themselves, inadequate logistics mechanisms it does have, like three supply types.

Bite the bullet and sort logistics and you won't have to tinker with much else, it will all fall into place.

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/31/2011 3:37:44 AM   
Q-Ball


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This game is winding down, but we're still playing it out until 1.05 comes out. In the meantime, we are pushing things as much as possible.

The Wehrmacht is on the ropes now; the trenches have run out, and when 1943 turned over, the Red Army got stronger. 38 new Rifle Divisions flipped to Guards (probably hit the cap again), and we now have 128 Guards Divisions. That's NUTS!

We also spent some of our AP hoard, creating many Rifle Corps. We have at least 60 now, and 45 of those are Guards Rifle Corps. Scary! All have Sappers.

Here is the map: Attacks everywhere, with the Romanians in particular taking it on the chin.




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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 8/31/2011 1:46:33 PM   
Klydon


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Status: offline 		60 Rifle corps and 32 tank corps. Heh. Well, not to cross index some food into this, but I think the Axis are going to be Emeriled as in it is going to be "Bam!" and "kick it up a notch" time on the front.

Masterful job of reorganization.

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 9/1/2011 4:25:56 AM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Klydon

60 Rifle corps and 32 tank corps. Heh. Well, not to cross index some food into this, but I think the Axis are going to be Emeriled as in it is going to be "Bam!" and "kick it up a notch" time on the front.

Masterful job of reorganization.



Not sure how masterful it is, I just did what the testers said. I think I pretty much know how to build the Red Army though, and I've spent some time on how to accumulate mass, which is what the Reds are all about. I've learned to build big units, and attach lots of SUs to corps. I love Tank Regts, I created so many I had to cut back to save vehicles, but I think all that armor helps.

I just sent another turn, 1/15/43, and the Werhmacht is close to collapse I think. I have asked Tarhunnas how many Rifle Sqds left, and the Germans are just over 2.5 mil now. Ouch!

I just created my 48th Guards Rifle Corps, along with 20-ish Regular Rifle Corps, so we're getting stronger up front. Next step may be to create more Artillery Divisions on top of the 15 or so we already have. Not that it matter much.

This turn, we launched over 110 attacks, with 73 Successful. That is a ridiculous number for 2 months into the offensive. We are starting to have supply problems outrunning rail lines, but still.....we shouldn't be getting these results.

Poor Tarhunnas is a punching bag to prove more the Germans need help. I have also allowed him to read the AAR, so if you see him in here, don't freak out.

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 9/1/2011 6:17:24 AM   
Pipewrench


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Status: offline 		Q-ball,

2 Questions:

what would be your estimation in the time needed to reach your victory point objectives with weather considerations factored in. 

edit: lol

and second do we need the German player to stand up and be seen in 1943

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zekiZYSVdeQ


< Message edited by pipewrench -- 9/1/2011 9:05:11 PM >

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 9/1/2011 7:58:02 PM   
SoliInvictus202


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quote:

ORIGINAL: pipewrench

Q-ball,

2 Questions:

what would be your estimation in the time needed to reach your victory point objectives with weather considerations factored in. 

We need the German player to stand up and be seen in 1943

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zekiZYSVdeQ



I absolutely love that one!

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 9/2/2011 8:56:32 AM   
randallw

 

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Status: offline 		How many rifle divisions are not in rifle corps yet?

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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 9/2/2011 2:22:01 PM   
Flaviusx


Posts: 7750
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From: Southern California
Status: offline 		Around 250 is my guess. There's enough rifle divisions in the Red Army (assuming no fresh builds in 1942 or permanent losses and all rifle brigades flipped to divisions) to crank out 150+ rifle corps. So Q-ball is just about at the halfway point here.





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RE: Crossing the Dnepr - 9/3/2011 1:31:58 PM   
Q-Ball


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Around 250 is my guess. There's enough rifle divisions in the Red Army (assuming no fresh builds in 1942 or permanent losses and all rifle brigades flipped to divisions) to crank out 150+ rifle corps. So Q-ball is just about at the halfway point here



I haven't gotten a turn, so I can't look it up until I do. But I can say that I should have almost the max; I merged maybe 6 Brigades during winter to keep front-line units up to strength, and I lost 2 Divisions in that landing in Ochakov. Other than that, I should have the max.

I have so many divisions, that many have never been active. They came in as "shells", and most have gained strength here and there because I topped out my REFITS, but mostly they sit behind the lines and gain experience. I have pulled a couple up here and there. I had so many understrength divisions I considered disbanding some.

So, I should be able to build 150 Corps if this game goes any further. I think it would be tough to convert ALL divisions to Corps; you need some divisions just to hold the line and maintain contact with the Germans to attrite them. But most can be converted.

You get a few divisions anyway, the Mountain and Paras, but if I play Soviets, I would try to keep the Mountain units out of risk of encirclement, because you can't build any. Planning WAY ahead, you will need them once you hit the Carpathians. Having a "Mountain Army" of 6 divisions or so is useful once you get to that phase.


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