Redmarkus5
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SUMMARY OF A CURRENT APPRECIATION OF THE MILITARY SITUATION
Prepared by the Red Army Chiefs of Staff for the STAVKA
July, 1941
OVERVIEW OF CURRENT SITUATION
Since the commencement of operations against the fascist invaders, our forces have demonstrated resilience and flexibility. Operations have been conducted in an organised fashion, with initiative and independent thinking being exhibited on the part of commanders at all levels.
The enemy appears confused and frustrated and his latest maneuvers suggest desperation to achieve a strategic breakthrough at any cost.
LAND FORCES AND OPERATIONS
North
After failing to capture Riga and Pskov at the outset of operations, and with Tallinn still in our hands and inhibiting the enemy's logistics programme, the pace of operations in this sector has slowed. While the threat to Leningrad remains severe, we have been given a respite and are currently preparing the defense of that city, plus Novgorod and all points in between.
Center
Failure to quickly secure and extinguish pocketed Soviet formations in the area around Minsk led to a situation in which the enemy was attempting to thrust forward with his armour and motorized formations alone. The bulk of his infantry divisions remained locked in mopping up operations for over 3 weeks and railway construction/supply are likely to have been hindered.
Our brave soldiers have now been able to concentrate for the defense of Smolensk and reserve formations are gathering to protect Moscow.
South
The enemy achieved strategic surprise in this sector with a bold thrust to the extreme south with all of his armoured forces. However, once this move had been conducted he then over-extended and has, as a result, been cut off by a series of weak penetrations of the flanks of his advance.
We appear to be in a good position to hold and strengthen our line in this sector and the defenses of the Crimea are simultaneously being reinforced, while Odessa remains in our hands.
AIR FORCES AND OPERATIONS
Our air force has conducted only limited operations during this period and is undergoing a major rebuild. Air operations are not expected to resume in any significant intensity before Spring 1942.
NAVAL FORCES AND OPERATIONS
Aside from limited naval operations and extensive mine warfare, the most significant point in this strategic dimension has been the enemy's failure to seize and hold ports along the line of advance. This has had the triple effect of:
1. Allowing cut off Soviet forces to continue their fight for 1-2 additional turns.
2. Allowing Soviet naval withdrawals and the reinforcement of key points.
3. Denying pocketed Axis units access to naval supply.
INDUSTRIAL
The enemy's slow advance has allowed us to safely evacuate 95% of our industrial and armaments production capacity from threatened cities to the east. This bodes well for future production.
INTELLIGENCE
We currently have very limited intelligence on enemy intentions and dispositions. Air reconnaissance is not yet effective.
PARTISAN OPERATIONS
Although partisan cadres are forming, our limited air transport capacity, particularly in the area of long range aircraft, has so far prevented us from activating these forces.
ENEMY CAPABILITIES AND LIKELY INTENTIONS
The enemy's senior leadership appears to lack a coherent strategic/operational plan and is acting opportunistically. This is contrary to patterns of behaviour observed on the part of the same leadership cadre in other theaters and is probably best explained as resulting from frustration with errors committed during the first week of operations. It appears that the enemy has no contingency plan to deal with early setbacks.
We anticipate a series of poorly coordinated armoured thrusts over the next 6-8 weeks, followed by a move to the strategic defensive once the enemy concludes that his main objectives cannot be achieved prior to winter.
The enemy will probably dig a series of defensive lines, stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea, in order to weather the winter weather and our inevitable counter thrusts.
PROJECTED SITUATION +4 WEEKS
North
We will be under intense pressure in front of Leningrad and Novgorod. Fascist armour will be attempting a right hook to encircle the city, possibly via the Valdai Hills.
Center
Smolensk will have fallen after bitter fighting and Vyazma will be contested. However, the enemy will be exhausted and his armoured forces will be seriously depleted and open to counter attack.
South
The enemy will be poised to launch a crossing operation to breach the Dnepr defense line, but his follow-on objectives will be limited with either Stalino or a break-in to the Crimea possibly representing the limit of his possible 1941 advance.
LONG TERM PROJECTIONS +20 WEEKS
Leningrad, Moscow, Tula, Kursk and Rostov will remain in our hands. An exhausted enemy force will be partially dug in and bracing itself for Red Army winter operations.
The goals of our first winter counter offensive will be to break the spirit of AGC, which represents the biggest potential threat for Spring 1942.
Signed: Zhukov
< Message edited by redmarkus4 -- 8/20/2011 10:54:32 PM >
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