Redmarkus5
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TOP SECRET SUMMARY OF A CURRENT APPRECIATION OF THE MILITARY SITUATION Prepared by the Red Army Chiefs of Staff for the STAVKA 09 October, 1941 OVERVIEW OF CURRENT SITUATION The enemy has shown improved focus and coordination, effecting aggressive operations in the south to seize the Don-bass and threaten Tula, Voronezh and Rostov. In the north and centre, enemy progress has been much more limited. LAND FORCES AND OPERATIONS North We continue to defend Leningrad with concentric lines of entrenchments in great depth. Novgorod has fallen, but the feared 'right hook' has failed to develop, most likely as a result of all enemy armoured forces being diverted to AGS. Center The enemy has seized Vyazma before the arrival of the mud, meaning that a winter push on Moscow is a real possibility. Events in the south must not be allowed to distract us from the strategic imperative of securing the capitol. South The enemy has continued to exploit the strategic surprise achieved in this sector with thrusts to the extreme south and into the Crimea. As predicted, he now appears to be at risk of becoming over-extended and he may be vulnerable to a counter-offensive on the flank of his southern salient, even in the event of a breakthrough into the northern Caucasus region. Planning for such an eventuality has commenced, being assigned the temporary code name 'Operation Moon'. AIR FORCES AND OPERATIONS Our air force continues to conduct only limited operations, primarily resupply and partisan supply. NAVAL FORCES AND OPERATIONS Aside from mine warfare, no naval operations have been conducted during the period. INDUSTRIAL The enemy's accelerated southern advance has captured some portions of our industry, but evacuation was already well underway in most cases, the rejuvenation of our productive capacity in the east should be assured. INTELLIGENCE We currently have very limited intelligence on enemy intentions and dispositions. Air reconnaissance is not yet effective. PARTISAN OPERATIONS Partisan operations have commenced at several points behind AGC, facilitated by the concentration of all available Red Air Force VVS units in the Moscow area. ENEMY CAPABILITIES AND LIKELY INTENTIONS Prisoner interrogations indicate that the enemy's armoured forces are suffering from supply shortages and the effects of attrition. However, they will resupply and refit during the Rasputitsa and are likely to be deployed in one of two modes: A. A pincer movement directed at Moscow. B. A southern thrust that may either swing north towards Moscow (least likely route) or south to cut off the Kuban (most likely route). A drive on Stalingrad is also possible, but this would almost certainly be suicidal. PROJECTED SITUATION +4 WEEKS North Leningrad and environs will continue to hold. Center Moscow will be under severe threat of encirclement (40% probability). South The Kuban and northern Caucasus will have fallen (80% probability). LONG TERM PROJECTIONS +20 WEEKS Our winter counter offensive will have trapped significant Axis forces in the south, or forced them back to the west of Rostov at a minimum. Smaller gains in the center will have eased the pressure on Moscow. Signed: Zhukov
< Message edited by redmarkus4 -- 9/16/2011 11:41:19 AM >
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