Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron
This statement suggests a classic misconception of what should be a "common result", because the expected
average is based on viewing a single historical event as representative, simply because it happened that way.

quote:

This statement suggests a classic misconception of what should be a "common result", because the expected
average is based on viewing a single historical event as representative, simply because it happened that way.

quote:

ORIGINAL: GoTraurig
discussions.

Everyone: My main purposes for this thread were to achieve some combination of: 1. To verify that I was setting up the strike properly. 2. To ensure I wasn't experiencing a bug. 3. To seek advice on minimizing the potential for a really bad result. 4. To learn what results should be expected. 5. To determine why my strikes were so much weaker than those I usually see in AARs and other discussions.

So far I have at least partially achieved 1, 3, 4, and 5, with my thanks and appreciation to you all. Currently my only related problem is ensuring more than half my Kates fly - I understand it could be just bad die rolls, but they were awfully consistent for a while.

I've also pretty much accepted that the solution, and all the advice I'll probably receive about this, is to ensure that the Kates have the proper orders and just hope they decide to fly.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

quote:

This statement suggests a classic misconception of what should be a "common result", because the expected
average is based on viewing a single historical event as representative, simply because it happened that way.

Your statement also suggests a classic misconception, that the presence of only one data point means that that data point isn't more or less a resonable expectable outcome.

quote:


Face it, alot of the things ConSims try to model are "one offs." But it makes more sense to make your "average simulated result" approximate the only data point that you actually have, than it does to make your average result something ELSE.

quote:


In game terms, "sunk" means "unrecoverable." Therefore, a historical result in game terms is 2BB sunk, 1 CM sunk, and 2 DDs sunk. Since a ship in PH had to be pretty well obliterated to be simply unrecoverable (like Arizona), I think based on what we know both of the Pearl Harbor ship facilities, the harbor depth, the Japanese equipment, and the general robustness of BBs, that leaning towards the "historical result" as a design goal for the game (or any consim covering the same subject) is a rather good way to do things.

quote:

Hm, well youre one of the "If someone says you have to be careful to identify something as 'A', he states it must be 'B'" guys, are you?

quote:

What makes you think that on scenarios like PH theres only one data point available?

quote:

That would only be true if you see the attack as a holistic event generating only one data point,

quote:

that it is not possible to extract data from a multitude events, down to a scale of penetration probability
of a 800kg bomb hit on a specific armour type, and recombine the data to work with that information.

quote:

Which is obviousely wrong.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nikademus

quote:

ORIGINAL: GoTraurig
discussions.

Everyone: My main purposes for this thread were to achieve some combination of: 1. To verify that I was setting up the strike properly. 2. To ensure I wasn't experiencing a bug. 3. To seek advice on minimizing the potential for a really bad result. 4. To learn what results should be expected. 5. To determine why my strikes were so much weaker than those I usually see in AARs and other discussions.

So far I have at least partially achieved 1, 3, 4, and 5, with my thanks and appreciation to you all. Currently my only related problem is ensuring more than half my Kates fly - I understand it could be just bad die rolls, but they were awfully consistent for a while.

I've also pretty much accepted that the solution, and all the advice I'll probably receive about this, is to ensure that the Kates have the proper orders and just hope they decide to fly.

There's not alot you can do to fuddle the results as randoms will have their way. You could forgo attacking the airfields and set all your bombers to Port to maximize the ship attacks but even then your results might not be better than if you left them alone. By default the only thing i change for Turn 1 assuming no 1st historical turn setting is undo the Straffing orders for the fighters. I'd rather not waste them. However I believe destroying some of the airpower has as much use as the ships themselves even though the results tend to be on average only 1/2 of what was achieved in real life. In my last two results I scored Zero battleships sunk and in the latter i got two. Think the best result i ever got was four.

quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

GoTraurig, I did not see your post as a complaint.

My motivation to post the 'The art of "averaging out"' thread is much
older already, because misinterpreting historical results is a more or less common
occurance on the forum.

If there was any additional reason at all, it was Kelduns post suggesting to "boost a bit more damage"
to "so that we can get a result a bit closer to what it was at the start of the war" concerning PH.

This statement suggests a classic misconception of what should be a "common result", because the expected
average is based on viewing a single historical event as representative, simply because it happened that way.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

quote:

This statement suggests a classic misconception of what should be a "common result", because the expected
average is based on viewing a single historical event as representative, simply because it happened that way.

Your statement also suggests a classic misconception, that the presence of only one data point means that that data point isn't more or less a resonable expectable outcome.

Face it, alot of the things ConSims try to model are "one offs." But it makes more sense to make your "average simulated result" approximate the only data point that you actually have, than it does to make your average result something ELSE.

In game terms, "sunk" means "unrecoverable." Therefore, a historical result in game terms is 2BB sunk, 1 CM sunk, and 2 DDs sunk. Since a ship in PH had to be pretty well obliterated to be simply unrecoverable (like Arizona), I think based on what we know both of the Pearl Harbor ship facilities, the harbor depth, the Japanese equipment, and the general robustness of BBs, that leaning towards the "historical result" as a design goal for the game (or any consim covering the same subject) is a rather good way to do things.

quote:

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Dec 07, 41
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Midget Sub attack inside harbor of Pearl Harbor!!!

Japanese Ships
SSX Ha-14, hits 1

Allied Ships
BB California, Torpedo hits 1
PC Reliance



PC Reliance cannot reach attack position over SSX Ha-14
PC Reliance cannot reach attack position over SSX Ha-14
SSX Ha-14 eludes PC Reliance by hugging bottom


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Pearl Harbor , at 180,107

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 91 NM, estimated altitude 2,100 feet.
Estimated time to target is 30 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 28
B5N2 Kate x 144
D3A1 Val x 126



Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 7 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed by flak
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
PBY-5 Catalina: 136 damaged
PBY-5 Catalina: 17 destroyed on ground
B-17D Fortress: 39 damaged
B-17D Fortress: 4 destroyed on ground
A-20A Havoc: 24 damaged
A-20A Havoc: 3 destroyed on ground
B-17E Fortress: 15 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 1 destroyed on ground
B-18A Bolo: 35 damaged
B-18A Bolo: 4 destroyed on ground
SBD-1 Dauntless: 25 damaged
SBD-1 Dauntless: 4 destroyed on ground
P-36A Mohawk: 32 damaged
P-36A Mohawk: 4 destroyed on ground
O-47A: 5 damaged
O-47A: 4 destroyed on ground
P-40B Warhawk: 72 damaged
P-40B Warhawk: 9 destroyed on ground
C-33: 3 damaged
C-33: 1 destroyed on ground
F4F-3 Wildcat: 2 destroyed on ground
R3D-2: 1 damaged
SNJ-3 Texan: 2 damaged
SOC-1 Seagull: 5 destroyed

Allied Ships
BB Maryland, Bomb hits 12, heavy fires
BB Arizona, Bomb hits 13, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Worden, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
CL St. Louis, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk
BB Tennessee, Bomb hits 9, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB California, Bomb hits 7, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB West Virginia, Bomb hits 8, heavy fires
BB Oklahoma, Bomb hits 14, heavy fires
CA New Orleans, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
AV Wright, Bomb hits 2, on fire
BB Nevada, Bomb hits 9, heavy fires
DMS Zane, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
BB Pennsylvania, Bomb hits 12, heavy fires
DD Henley, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
CL Honolulu, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CL Helena, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DD Allen, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
CL Raleigh, Bomb hits 1
CM Oglala, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
CL Detroit, Bomb hits 2, on fire
DM Gamble, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SS Dolphin, Bomb hits 1, heavy damage
PT-24, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
AR Vestal, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CA San Francisco, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
AV Tangier, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
DM Pruitt, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
AVD Hulbert, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage


Allied ground losses:
5 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Repair Shipyard hits 2
Airbase hits 38
Airbase supply hits 4
Runway hits 87

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
27 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 9000 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 800 kg AP Bomb
5 x A6M2 Zero bombing from 100 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 60 kg GP Bomb
5 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
City Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
27 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 9000 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 800 kg AP Bomb
4 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 15000 feet
12 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
18 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 9000 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 800 kg AP Bomb
4 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 15000 feet
8 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
18 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 9000 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 800 kg AP Bomb
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
1 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 15000 feet
27 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 9000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
12 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
27 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 9000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
6 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
4 x A6M2 Zero bombing from 100 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 60 kg GP Bomb
13 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
3 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
City Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
9 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
2 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
7 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
1 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
5 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
11 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
12 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
City Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Magazine explodes on DD Worden
Magazine explodes on CL St. Louis
Magazine explodes on CA San Francisco


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Wake Island , at 136,98

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 2 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 0 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 27



Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 4


Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 1 destroyed, 6 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-3 Wildcat: 3 damaged


Allied ground losses:
9 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled


Airbase hits 13
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 18

Aircraft Attacking:
25 x G3M2 Nell bombing from 2000 feet *
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
VMF-211 Det with F4F-3 Wildcat (1 airborne, 3 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 4000 and 7000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 87 minutes



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Iba , at 78,75

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 36 NM, estimated altitude 26,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 37
G4M1 Betty x 54



Allied aircraft
no flights

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
P-40E Warhawk: 17 damaged
P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed on ground



Airbase supply hits 4
Runway hits 9

Aircraft Attacking:
27 x G4M1 Betty bombing from 23000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb
27 x G4M1 Betty bombing from 23000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Clark Field , at 79,76

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 27,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 25
G3M2 Nell x 36
G4M1 Betty x 27



Allied aircraft
P-40B Warhawk x 1


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
P-40B Warhawk: 1 damaged
P-40B Warhawk: 1 destroyed on ground
B-17D Fortress: 1 destroyed on ground
P-35A: 1 destroyed on ground
O-47A: 2 destroyed on ground



Airbase hits 7
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 17

Aircraft Attacking:
27 x G4M1 Betty bombing from 23000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb
15 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 23000 feet
27 x G3M2 Nell bombing from 23000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb
2 x A6M2 Zero strafing at 100 feet
9 x G3M2 Nell bombing from 23000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
24th PG/HqS with P-40B Warhawk (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Raid is overhead



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Davao , at 79,91

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 47 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B5N1 Kate x 12



No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
AVD William B. Preston, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
xAKL Montanes, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Mauban, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires



Port hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x B5N1 Kate bombing from 5000 feet *
Port Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Kota Bharu , at 51,75

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 3,100 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 33



Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-27b Nate: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
Hudson I: 37 damaged
Vildebeest III: 7 damaged



Airbase hits 7
Airbase supply hits 11
Runway hits 32

Aircraft Attacking:
28 x Ki-27b Nate bombing from 100 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 50 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Tuguegarao , at 82,74

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 6 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 25
Ki-48-Ib Lily x 27



No Japanese losses



Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 19

Aircraft Attacking:
27 x Ki-48-Ib Lily bombing from 15000 feet
Airfield Attack: 4 x 100 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Alor Star , at 49,73

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 37 NM, estimated altitude 5,200 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 52



Allied aircraft
no flights

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Blenheim I: 18 damaged
Blenheim I: 2 destroyed on ground


Allied ground losses:
4 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Airbase hits 15
Airbase supply hits 9
Runway hits 45

Aircraft Attacking:
21 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 1200 feet *
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
31 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 1200 feet *
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Alor Star , at 49,73

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 15 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 6
Ki-48-Ib Lily x 25



Allied aircraft
no flights

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Blenheim I: 1 damaged



Airbase hits 5
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 20

Aircraft Attacking:
25 x Ki-48-Ib Lily bombing from 15000 feet
Airfield Attack: 4 x 100 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Hong Kong at 77,61

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 3 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 0 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 15



No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
DD Thracian
DD Thanet



Aircraft Attacking:
15 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 15000 feet
Naval Attack: 4 x 250 kg SAP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 40th Chinese Corps, at 88,44 (Chengchow)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 39 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 17
Ki-30 Ann x 12



No Japanese losses


Allied ground losses:
17 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Aircraft Attacking:
12 x Ki-30 Ann bombing from 15000 feet
Ground Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Kowloon Brigade, at 77,61 (Hong Kong)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 55 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 19 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 7
Ki-36 Ida x 27
Ki-44 Tojo x 6
Ki-51 Sonia x 24



No Japanese losses



Aircraft Attacking:
24 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing from 15000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 50 kg GP Bomb
27 x Ki-36 Ida bombing from 15000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 30 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Georgetown , at 49,74

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 8 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 27



Allied aircraft
Blenheim IF x 2
Buffalo I x 18


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 10 destroyed, 6 damaged

No Allied losses



Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 7

Aircraft Attacking:
24 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 15000 feet *
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
No.21 Sqn RAAF with Buffalo I (1 airborne, 4 on standby, 13 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters to 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 119 minutes
No.27 Sqn RAF with Blenheim IF (2 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 6000
Raid is overhead



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Georgetown , at 49,74

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ia Oscar x 17



Allied aircraft
Buffalo I x 7


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-Ia Oscar: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
Ki-43-Ia Oscar: 1 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses



Aircraft Attacking:
12 x Ki-43-Ia Oscar bombing from 100 feet

CAP engaged:
No.21 Sqn RAAF with Buffalo I (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters to 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 58 minutes



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Kota Bharu , at 51,75

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 37 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 22



No Japanese losses


Allied ground losses:
5 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 7

Aircraft Attacking:
22 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 15000 feet *
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 16th Construction Regiment, at 88,56 (Chuhsien)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 14 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 8
Ki-51 Sonia x 12



No Japanese losses



Aircraft Attacking:
12 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing from 15000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 50 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Mersing at 52,82

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 72 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 27



Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 4 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Walrus II: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
BC Repulse, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
BB Prince of Wales, Torpedo hits 5, and is sunk



Aircraft Attacking:
27 x G4M1 Betty launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Mersing at 52,82

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 102 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 18



Allied aircraft
no flights

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Walrus II: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
BC Repulse, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
DD Vampire



Aircraft Attacking:
9 x G3M2 Nell launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
9 x G3M2 Nell launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Pakhoi , at 72,58

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 7 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-51 Sonia x 17



No Japanese losses



Runway hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing from 15000 feet *
Ground Attack: 2 x 50 kg GP Bomb
8 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing from 15000 feet *
Airfield Attack: 2 x 50 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 64th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking Pakhoi ...
Also attacking 64th Chinese Corps ...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Hong Kong at 77,61

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 90 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 15



No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
DD Thracian



Aircraft Attacking:
15 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 15000 feet
Naval Attack: 4 x 250 kg SAP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Kota Bharu at 51,75

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 1



Allied aircraft
Blenheim IV x 6
Hudson I x 3


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Blenheim IV: 4 damaged
Hudson I: 3 damaged

Japanese Ships
BB Kongo



Aircraft Attacking:
3 x Hudson I bombing from 6000 feet *
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 lb SAP Bomb
6 x Blenheim IV bombing from 15000 feet
Naval Attack: 4 x 250 lb SAP Bomb

CAP engaged:
77th Sentai Det A with Ki-27b Nate (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 1 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 15 minutes



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Patani at 51,73

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 6 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 6



Allied aircraft
Blenheim I x 4
Hudson I x 4


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Blenheim I: 1 destroyed
Hudson I: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
CA Mikuma



Aircraft Attacking:
3 x Hudson I bombing from 6000 feet
Naval Attack: 4 x 250 lb SAP Bomb

CAP engaged:
1st Sentai with Ki-27b Nate (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(4 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 9000
Raid is overhead
11th Sentai with Ki-27b Nate (2 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(2 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Raid is overhead



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Patani , at 51,73

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 5 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 11



Allied aircraft
Blenheim IF x 5
Buffalo I x 8


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Blenheim IF: 2 destroyed



CAP engaged:
1st Sentai with Ki-27b Nate (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(4 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 6000 and 8000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 81 minutes
11th Sentai with Ki-27b Nate (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 6000 and 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 106 minutes
77th Sentai Det A with Ki-27b Nate (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(4 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 4 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 19 minutes



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Kota Bharu at 51,75

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 3 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 0 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 2



Allied aircraft
Blenheim IV x 6


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Blenheim IV: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
xAK Ayatosan Maru



Aircraft Attacking:
6 x Blenheim IV bombing from 15000 feet
Naval Attack: 4 x 250 lb SAP Bomb

CAP engaged:
11th Sentai with Ki-27b Nate (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Raid is overhead
77th Sentai Det A with Ki-27b Nate (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Raid is overhead



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 25th Chinese Corps, at 81,57 (Kanhsien)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 15 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-30 Ann x 31



No Japanese losses


Allied ground losses:
41 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Aircraft Attacking:
31 x Ki-30 Ann bombing from 15000 feet *
Ground Attack: 1 x 100 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Singora at 51,72

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 40 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 20



Allied aircraft
Blenheim I x 3


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Blenheim I: 1 destroyed



CAP engaged:
11th Sentai with Ki-27b Nate (0 airborne, 12 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(4 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 4 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters to 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 17 minutes
1st Sentai with Ki-27b Nate (0 airborne, 4 on standby, 0 scrambling)
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters to 8000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 17 minutes



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Singora at 51,72

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 34 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 17



Allied aircraft
Swordfish I x 2


No Japanese losses

No Allied losses



CAP engaged:
11th Sentai with Ki-27b Nate (0 airborne, 8 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 6000 and 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 33 minutes
1st Sentai with Ki-27b Nate (0 airborne, 4 on standby, 0 scrambling)
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters to 8000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 13 minutes



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Naval bombardment of Midway Island at 158,91

Japanese Ships
DD Ushio
DD Sazanami



DD Ushio firing at Midway Island
DD Sazanami firing at Midway Island


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-Invasion action off Kota Bharu (51,75)

41 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Japanese Ships
CL Sendai
DD Ayanami
DD Isonami
PB Tatsumiya Maru
SC Ch 9
SC Ch 7
AK Sasako Maru

Japanese ground losses:
56 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Allied ground losses:
5 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


CL Sendai firing at 8th Indian Brigade
DD Ayanami firing at 8th Indian Brigade
DD Isonami firing at 8th Indian Brigade
PB Tatsumiya Maru fired at enemy troops
SC Ch 9 fired at enemy troops
SC Ch 7 fired at enemy troops
DD Isonami fired at enemy troops
Defensive Guns fire at approaching troops in landing craft at 6,000 yards
Defensive Guns fire at approaching troops in landing craft at 2,000 yards


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at Kota Bharu (51,75)

TF 85 troops unloading over beach at Kota Bharu, 51,75





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at Batan Island (85,70)

TF 90 troops unloading over beach at Batan Island, 85,70





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at Batan Island (85,70)

TF 96 troops unloading over beach at Batan Island, 85,70





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Kota Bharu (51,75)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 3410 troops, 36 guns, 1 vehicles, Assault Value = 138

Defending force 4798 troops, 41 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 174



Assaulting units:
FMSV Brigade
8th Indian Brigade
3rd ISF Base Force

Defending units:
56th Infantry Rgt /1
12th Engr Rgt /1
5th JAAF AF Coy /1


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Batan Island (85,70)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 1474 troops, 19 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 69

Defending force 0 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 55

Allied adjusted defense: 1

Japanese assault odds: 55 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Batan Island !!!

Combat modifiers
Attacker: shock(+)



Assaulting units:
Sasebo 1st SNLF /3
24th JAAF AF Bn /1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Keldun

The first turn is different from the other 1k+ turns with the 7th dec option.
I' m at about 40 tries now and haven't once gotten anything close. How many more sample do you want? I can bet you without much doubt that if i tried 20 more times i wouldn't get a result close either.

And about die rolls, of course it is random but at the moment a lower result than what happened historically is almost guaranteed, not much randomness in the chance of getting a lower result then.

But if you add a bigger constant in damage to the 7th december option, the number of destroyed machines would be higher.
Those following numbers are completely fictional but lets say that a bb ship needs 90 damage to sink if we add a constant of +10 damage to the current +5 damage only once, as soon as that ship got hit the chance that the ship will sink will still be higher on average and we may have a slightly higher chance to get a result close.
That would only affect the first turn and not the rest of the game, I' m not sure why people are so against the idea since its an option that can be disabled.

And about the 8th december scen, I'd rather like to see the war in action in game from the start rather than know that it happened.
Or I could just make a scenario starting near the end of the war just before japan surrendered and imagine all the historical battles if I only cared about the result.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred
I get back to the basic issue, what is wrong with playing the 8th Dec start if you are so affronted that the "historical" result is so difficult to attain.

Alfred

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

quote:

ORIGINAL: Keldun

The first turn is different from the other 1k+ turns with the 7th dec option.
I' m at about 40 tries now and haven't once gotten anything close. How many more sample do you want? I can bet you without much doubt that if i tried 20 more times i wouldn't get a result close either.

And about die rolls, of course it is random but at the moment a lower result than what happened historically is almost guaranteed, not much randomness in the chance of getting a lower result then.

But if you add a bigger constant in damage to the 7th december option, the number of destroyed machines would be higher.
Those following numbers are completely fictional but lets say that a bb ship needs 90 damage to sink if we add a constant of +10 damage to the current +5 damage only once, as soon as that ship got hit the chance that the ship will sink will still be higher on average and we may have a slightly higher chance to get a result close.
That would only affect the first turn and not the rest of the game, I' m not sure why people are so against the idea since its an option that can be disabled.

And about the 8th december scen, I'd rather like to see the war in action in game from the start rather than know that it happened.
Or I could just make a scenario starting near the end of the war just before japan surrendered and imagine all the historical battles if I only cared about the result.

No, the algorithm for the 7th Dec turn is not different from the other 1300+ turns.

You are confusing altering inputs with the algorithm itself. Furthermore your plea for changing the "constants" (whatever they are meant to represent in your mind) is a change to the algorithm.

Your claim that the result will be almost certainly less than historical is based on what, your own extensive testing?

Plus on what do you base your comment that a +5 constant exists, which constant you wish to up to +10 constant What is this constant and as you so obviously know what it is, why don't you give us all the exact algorithm so that we can all see how this constant operates.

So let me get this straight, you claim it is likely that the result will be less than the historical outcome. For the sake of the argument I'll put aside that you seem to have a very strange idea as to what was the actual historical result and how such outcomes are represented in the game. The logical extension of your argument is that an outcome which is better than the historical outcome would also have to be dismissed as not good enough. You wouldn't want to be perceived to only be barracking for outcomes which benefit Japan, would you?

So, just as Goldilocks, you just want it to be "just right" notwithstanding that die rolls are involved. Hmn, I get back to the basic issue, what is wrong with playing the 8th Dec start if you are so affronted that the "historical" result is so difficult to attain.

Alfred

quote:

ORIGINAL: GoTraurig

Ok, I'd realized my strike force was weaker than it should be, but I didn't notice how consistent it was. Only 72 out of 144 Kates flying pretty much explains my results and the low torpedo usage. My zeroes sometimes don't go at full strength either, but that's not too big of a deal.

ny59giants: After reading your message I tried three more attempts - double checking the settings of each of the Kate groups. Twice I still only got 72 Kates. One time I had 117 fly. Now I'm pretty confident that my settings were correct on my previous tests, but this is interesting.

At first I thought it might have something to do with the fact that, by default, the Kates on the Shokaku and the Zuikaku are set to airfield attack - but even assuming those don't fly, the strikes should have had 90 Kates, so I can't explain it.

I'm pretty confident that every single Kate group was set to Port attack with target Pearl Harbor at 9k feet.

Folks, now that I think we've identified the problem, any ideas on how to fix it or why it's happening?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Keldun
Actually there were 4 bb sunk in the pearl harbour attack but they managed to refloat 2 of them later.
Here is the total list of the loss on that attack

US
4 battleships sunk
3 battleships damaged
1 battleship grounded
2 destroyers sunk
1 other ship sunk
3 cruisers damaged[nb 1]
1 destroyer damaged
3 other ships damaged
188 aircraft destroyed
155 aircraft damaged

JP
4 midget submarines sunk
1 midget submarine grounded
29 aircraft destroyed

I retried many times as well to reproduce similar result (with the 7th dec surprise option)but never managed even though after like 20 tries, i did get 3 bb sunk but the number of aircraft or smaller ship sunk wasn't anywhere close.
I know we can play a dec 8 game but it would be nice to be able to reproduce the battle that started the war, wasn't it the purpose of the option of 7th dec surprise ?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

So let me get this straight, you claim it is likely that the result will be less than the historical outcome. For the sake of the argument I'll put aside that you seem to have a very strange idea as to what was the actual historical result and how such outcomes are represented in the game. The logical extension of your argument is that an outcome which is better than the historical outcome would also have to be dismissed as not good enough. You wouldn't want to be perceived to only be barracking for outcomes which benefit Japan, would you?

So, just as Goldilocks, you just want it to be "just right" notwithstanding that die rolls are involved. Hmn, I get back to the basic issue, what is wrong with playing the 8th Dec start if you are so affronted that the "historical" result is so difficult to attain.

Alfred

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Your claim that the result will be almost certainly less than historical is based on what, your own extensive testing?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred
No, the algorithm for the 7th Dec turn is not different from the other 1300+ turns.

You are confusing altering inputs with the algorithm itself. Furthermore your plea for changing the "constants" (whatever they are meant to represent in your mind) is a change to the algorithm.


Plus on what do you base your comment that a +5 constant exists, which constant you wish to up to +10 constant What is this constant and as you so obviously know what it is, why don't you give us all the exact algorithm so that we can all see how this constant operates.

quote:

If the player selects a scenario that begins on December 7th, 1941, this option may be selected.
When chosen, during the Morning Phase only on December 7, 1941, the following occurs to
represent Allied surprise:
»» Allied air units flying patrols (CAP, search, etc.) have
a 50% chance of not flying any aircraft
»» If an air group passes this test and elects to fly, the
number of aircraft that will fly is reduced by 75%
»» The Allies will launch no airstrikes
»» Japanese Naval TFs may have enhanced first turn movement, depending
upon TF settings in the scenario (see Editor Manual for details)
»» Aircraft making a port attack during any December 7 phase will attack
ships 100 percent of the time if there are at least 10 ships in the port
»» Aircraft hit on any Allied airfields suffer increased damage
»» Aircraft hit on any Allied ships suffer increased
damage due to lack of Damage Control
»» Vary Setup option has been disabled for Admiral’s Edition.

quote:

ORIGINAL: inqistor

There is one problem with game - I was unable to get second PH strike, at 7th December, no matter the settings (only with unlucky coordination problem). Much less third - possible strike. Your results are from historical TWO strikes, not in-game ONE. Game seems to use right amount of planes, but second strike later, could have different results, as planes could choose damaged ships more frequently. All-in-one can have different target distribution.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Keldun

quote:

ORIGINAL: inqistor

There is one problem with game - I was unable to get second PH strike, at 7th December, no matter the settings (only with unlucky coordination problem). Much less third - possible strike. Your results are from historical TWO strikes, not in-game ONE. Game seems to use right amount of planes, but second strike later, could have different results, as planes could choose damaged ships more frequently. All-in-one can have different target distribution.

You are probably right only 1 strike is most likely the reason why we are seeing those results.

quote:

ORIGINAL: inqistor
There is one problem with game - I was unable to get second PH strike, at 7th December, no matter the settings (only with unlucky coordination problem). Much less third - possible strike. Your results are from historical TWO strikes, not in-game ONE. Game seems to use right amount of planes, but second strike later, could have different results, as planes could choose damaged ships more frequently. All-in-one can have different target distribution.

quote:

ORIGINAL: ckammp

The in-game strike represents both real life first wave and second wave attacks.

Random die rolls is the reason game results differ from real life results.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Keldun


So the number of strike isn't the main problem i guess.

quote:

ORIGINAL: ckammp

The in-game strike represents both real life first wave and second wave attacks.

Random die rolls is the reason game results differ from real life results.

Yes I know there are random rolls but just think that they are too biased toward lower result.
I'm going to use totally fictional numbers that I pulled out of nowhere and which are probably completely wrong but that is just for the example(hopefully this wont be skipped).
Let's say at the moment that to destroy something you need to roll a 95 out of 100 chances that we would see something destroyed would be 5% then.
If we lower the roll needed to destroy something to maybe 70 out of 100 when using the 7th dec surprise option in ports with 10 ships + and 250 + planes, we would see that result more often and there would still be randomness in that.
Or they could also make the dice roll range lower with this option which would also make that result appear more often.

quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron


Keldun, as you said you are using totally fictional numbers.
The game works different to what you believe. Changing values as you propose would impact areas of the
game you probably have not even seen yet, and neither improve the historical accuracy nor the realism of
the game on a grand scale. And thats what matters.

I suggest you take advice, start to get a bit of experience with the game mechanics,
tweak the setup of your attacks and get on with playing.
If you don´t like the setup of dec 7th, play the 8th, but thats been repeated ad nauseum already.


That said I made a short dec 7th setup while at work.


Didn´t have much time so the strike setup was probably less lethal than it could be.
But for a demonstration it looks ok to me.

This is getting boring.

quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

Tweaking a general value for a single event is not how this game works. It is also not neccesary as you should have understood long ago.
To continue a discussion for the sake of personal ego is not neccesary.

Don´t start behaving like a green button candidate.

quote:

Aircraft making a port attack during any December 7 phase will attack
ships 100 percent of the time if there are at least 10 ships in the port