heliodorus04
Posts: 1647
Joined: 11/1/2008
From: Nashville TN
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I told CF in my end-of-turn e-mail that the breakout from the Dnepr is a slow grind of burned out tanks. 48.Panzer’s armor are under 80 each. 3.Panzer’s 1 armor is over 150, so too is 14.Panzer’s armor. 48.Panzer had to do most of the hard fighting, because it is they who are using buildup this turn in the south. So as the next two turns go, 48.Panzer and its tired, worn out tanks are going to be vulnerable, and weak, and maneuver will be the order of the day. I will have to drive a wedge somewhere, but won’t have much of an idea until I see how the turn plays for CF and how it looks at the start of 10. With the railhead (and 2 FBDs) as close as they are, MPs should be good next turn. Coincidentally, the railhead has moved fast enough that 17.Army is getting a bit better supply next turn than this.
I think the best news down south is that 17.Army is across the Dnepr and on the east side of the Psel, so 6.Army can fight northward, if that’s the optimal course, or 17.Army can fight east/northeast if that’s optimal. This supply point seems just right for the infantry armies to flex their muscle next turn. And there are a lot of damaged divisions around here. I figure when you start seeing the Soviet player plug his front line with cavalry, you’ve got him in bad shape. Those are not units you want taking losses for no good reason.
In the far south, 11.Army is across at one point, and will easily cross at the black sea. You may notice that my Axis minors are being used in an eerily familiar role guarding exposed flanks and rivers! But what the hell else good are they? I leave some muscle around them in case CF decides he wants to try some suicide stuff.
NOTES TO SOVIET PLAYER ON RESERVES
I think CF may have missed a great chance to use Reserves here at the Dnepr bridgehead, but there are a lot of reasons I might not see reserves being used even if they’re being held. In my other game, my opponent did an old-school, full Robinsky and when I finally caught up to his lines, his army was in outstanding condition and reserves often activated (more than 50% of the first two turns of head-to-head fighting) causing a lot of Held results. But after 2 turns of that, I was starting to route combatants with reserves involved as well. The game is fairly punishing of losing battles in terms of morale loss. I think on the attack, especially, a Held result could be less debilitating.
BATTLE TALLY
59 divisions were attacked, 7 routes, 7 Held. Of the 5 divisions that achieved Held results, 245 Rifle accounts for 3. All of the 6 divisions that successfully defended were forced to retreat at some point in the turn. For its bravery, 245 Rifle was retreated 5 times to offset the 3 wins (coincidentally, not deliberately). That’ll learn ya, Ivan.
I’m uncertain how my combat performance is going overall. It seems I am still not attacking much, but I think my wins are pretty high quality, and are producing excellent maneuver. The whole reason I’m 50 miles from Moscow this fast is that I used mass and speed and Western Front is still trying to adjust 4 turns later.
Also, the HQ buildup is showing the usual effects in truck immolation. The status is 164/155 need, and that’s worrisome. I’ve never been in a game where I go under the Need amount.
AIR WAR STUFF
The air war is still hugely problematic, but in the Leningrad area, I’m doing well, and that’s because I concentrated some of AGC’s air power there for the drive on Leningrad. My ratios up there are much higher than the average, so you can see how poorly I’m doing in the center and south. I have put various air wings into national reserve, some fighters and some bombers. I won’t consider bringing some of these units back until turn 11, so the next two turns will have to be managed well. I am bringing fatigue down by turning my most fatigued fighters to Night Missions at the end of my turn. That helped a lot over the turn break. I’ll have to examine whether it’s time to start flying fighters away from Leningrad. His performance there is getting weaker, and the distance his fighters have to fly is getting larger. I adjusted my interdiction downward, and might turn it off it wasn’t having such affects against me. And I need to keep offsetting his movements where he’s got exposed flanks.
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Fall 2021-Playing: Stalingrad'42 (GMT); Advanced Squad Leader,
Reading: Masters of the Air (GREAT BOOK!)
Rulebooks: ASL (always ASL), Middle-Earth Strategy Battle Game
Painting: WHFB Lizardmen leaders
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RE: Turn 9 AGN - 
Well done indeed. 
Yet another observation re: Reserve. Placement of reserves is very important. You can see that the chances to intervene in any single combat are very low. But the chances that it eventually commits in a given turn grow as the number of eligible battles increase. So placing it somewhere eligible for 3 battles means that it will most probably be committed into one of those battles (for the Tank Brigade above, if there are 3 battles in hexes costing 2MP's to reach, the chances are about 0.62, or 1:1.5 odds of at least taking part in one of them). 
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