RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/4/2012 11:26:08 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

This is an edited together set of Flyouts showing all of the units currently in the Gibraltar hex:

Naval Review Details might have made this easier to display.

My monitor isn't tall enough to display all of the CA at once.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)

Post #: 721

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 12:24:46 AM

composer99

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Any chance the CW will be able to bring in a FTR as well as (if required) more land units?

Also, this turn the Axis should deploy the German fleet & the subs (German & Italian) to clog up the CW lines of reinforcement to Gibraltar to try and stop transports with land units or FTR to get there. This may not be do-able right away if the Germans are going to do a land impulse and the Italians a combined, of course.

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~ Composer99

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Post #: 722

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 6:55:48 AM

Red Prince

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From: Bangor, Maine, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

Any chance the CW will be able to bring in a FTR as well as (if required) more land units?

Also, this turn the Axis should deploy the German fleet & the subs (German & Italian) to clog up the CW lines of reinforcement to Gibraltar to try and stop transports with land units or FTR to get there. This may not be do-able right away if the Germans are going to do a land impulse and the Italians a combined, of course.

The RSA FTR at Cape Town is stacked with a TERR and 2 TRS, so yes there will be some reinforcements coming to the area. Also, the Spanish TRS is in Bombay, and there is a MIL there (or an INF) that cuold either go around the Cape or it could go to Suez to hold things up there. The last TRS is in the Canary Islands with a Nigerian TERR and the Spanigh INF that was saved last turn, too.

I'm still having trouble getting enough Pilots and CVP into the game for the CW. There's a lovely Spitfire I wanted to use from the Reserve Pool at the start of this turn, but didn't have enough pilots to assign.

As the Germans, with those two new BB adding to the fleet, I'd love to be able to use a Combined on the 1st impulse to try again to take out the North Sea Fleet the CW has there at the moment. There's a small fleet of BBs that can reinforce it from Plymouth (5-7), but for now it is vulnerable. If I can figure out how to get the units I want for the Gibraltar attack into place with the land move limits of a Combined Action, I'll do that, since it also gives me more Air moves to bring my LND force down into a more useful position.

As for Italy, it won't be taking a Combined the first impulse. It's going to have to be a Naval impulse, because it needs to move units from Athens to Bardia without any chance of interception and it also needs to move the fleet from Malta into the W. Med. A shortage of Oil prevented the entire fleet from being reorganized at the beginning of the turn, so getting into Egypt and the Middle-East is goal #1 for them. Goal #2 is providing Shore Bombardment for Gibraltar before the W. Med fleet has to take on many/most of those 1-2 attack factors the CW now has available to send in.

I know that I'm not thinking in the long-term (5-6 impulses) ahead with this plan, but if the Italian fleet is destroyed before it can do either, there's no point in thinking that far ahead. The E. Med fleet is pretty safe -- at the moment, and it's Germany's job to make the CW think twice about trying to retake the W. Med.

Now, here's a question for you. Even reading the rules, I sometimes have trouble with this: is it worth adding a PARA into an attack on Gibraltar in the first wave? or does the Notional Unit it creates actually make things harder? In the end, I'll probably run the attack sequence twice (up to the point of Land Combat Resolution) just to see the difference and to try to understand it.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to composer99)

Post #: 723

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 7:38:46 AM

Red Prince

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Another look at China, now under severe pressure. I've outlined the location of the Japanese HQs in Green, and the blue arrows show where the MAR units are at the start of this turn.

The Chinese stack defending Chengtu is a 7-factor stack, so it should be easy to take.

One HQ (probably Yamamoto) is going to have to lead the forces toward Kunming, while the other two return to the Communist front. In te meantime, I have to get those Marine units to Canton ASAP. I'm not sure how the Communists should play this . . . should they try to defend both Sian and Lanchow? Sian has both a river line and some mountains nearby to help out, and Lanchow is surrounded by mountains. To this point, they've been able to stretch the lines and not double-stack units, but that's because the main Japanese force was taking on the Nationalists. When that force starts moving North, it's going to be a ifferent story completely.

Even so, I don't think the Japanese can easily keep supply open to try for Lanchow before Sian using only 2 HQs, so I don't think the Communists should simply give Sian away. The Sian MIL and the Lanchow Warlord need to pull back, and the new MTN unit needs to head southwest to begin a holding action against a potential rogue CAV unit. Similarly, the Communist CAV needs to get back to the South, as should Mao. It looks like the Soviets will be spending a number of their moves this summer on Communist units. The plus side of things is that it will take most of the summer to get the Japanese "holding" line back into action, and also to get the MAR units back to a port.

If things start looking very bad toward the end of the summer turn, China may actually want to try to tempt the Japanese into conquest by making it "easy" to do. What I mean by this is that if 3 of the 4 remaining factory cities fall, the 4th might be left with a single "easy" defender. The other units should try to move into positions to threaten a bolt around the Japanese northern flank (if possible), so that Japan has to make a choice between triggering the extra US Entry chit per turn by conquering China or playing the "stall" game at the last city.

For Japan, this could be a tough decision. The Communists have another 5-3 INF coming in for S/O '40, and the weather is going to start getting more difficult to deal with. If Japan doesn't begin preparing to either start an invasion of Siberia, or at least to prevent the Communist flanking effort, what does it do? Does it hope that China will Surrender instead? Does it continue its "stall" while the Communists continue to gain reinforcements? Or does it bite the bullet and finish off the last city and do its best to prepare for the Americans?

A lot of food for thought.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/5/2012 7:40:25 AM >

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

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Post #: 724

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 8:57:36 AM

Red Prince

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The situation here in Egypt has me a little more than puzzled, for a number of reasons.

By the end of the first impulse, Italy will have 25 attack factors to use in the Middle-East and Egypt. It will take a few land impulses to get all of those factors into position to get a good attack on HQ-A Wavell.

If Wavell doesn't retreat, it's possible he could be put out of supply. It's going to take a Naval Action plus a Land Action (or a dreaded Combined Action) to get the Indian MIL into Suez (due to non-cooperation between Spain and Egypt). That means it'll likely be impulse #4 before that happens. At that point, there's a choice . . . double-stack Suez, double-stack Cairo, or single-stack both. That would be impulse #6, and it's a tough choice. Cairo offers the option to select the CRT, but Suez allows for a certainty of supply coming through the Red Sea; unfortunately, the presence of both HQ-A Graziani and the MECH will let the Italians choose the CRT if Suez is the chosen location for a "final stand".

Another problem here is the fleet in Port Said. It has 22 attack factors among 9 units. The Italians have 16 factors among 5 units, plus a NAV. Granted, they are in the 2 Box, and most of the CW fleet can reach the 4 Box . . . but, that NAV is still a problem. What the real problem here is, is that if the Commonwealth isn't careful, these units will end up trapped in the Med -- Port Said is an E. Med port, and does not let out into the Red Sea. If it doesn't attempt an attack on the Italian fleet early, it could get stuck if Italy claims any 1 of the 4 hexes that control the Suez canal. So, I guess they'll have to try to fight at less than overwhelming odds, and if it means they lose a ship or two and need to Abort, they can almost all abort to Aden.
-----
Why not simply bypass the Italian fleet and move on to another sea area, you ask? The W. Med, perhaps? Or even the Italian Coast? Well, I've been trying to avoid mentioning this, but I feel I need to now (sorry Steve): there is a very minor bug that I've been able to work around most of the time that prevents me from sending this fleet to either of those sea areas (well, I suppose I could get them to the W. Med . . . keep reading and I'll explain).

This is a relatively new bug that showed up (or resurfaced, really) about two months ago -- after the option to intercept is offered to the enemy fleet, regardless of the decision made, a MadExcept Error occurs if you try to continue moving the fleet to another sea area. This kind of error isn't fatal, but it has the potential to introduce corrupt variables into the game, which can cause the entire game to become too corrupted to be useful as a test game. It's almost certainly an easy thing to fix, but Steve has had much higher priority code to complete during that stretch.

The work-around I use, if I know the interception is going to fail, is to use special debugging tools to move the fleet to a port adjacent to the sea area where the fleet should end up. Unfortunately, in this case, the CW has no ports adjacent to the Italian Coast, and I'd have to move them to Gibraltar in order to get them to the W. Med. With so many ships already in Gibraltar, I just don't want to have to try to keep track of which ships should be able to reach which sea box.

I apologize for the digression, but with all of the talk about bad CW play this "bad play" is an obvious one, and it takes a lot of effort to make sure everything is done "correctly". To be honest, I'm tired of having to explain everything I do with the CW navy. In fact, it isn't only the CW navy that has had to deal with this. In order to get the German Azores invasion force through to the North Atlantic, I had to restart the game 3 times for that single Naval Move: the first move was out of Kiel into the North Sea to check for a successful interception, which failed. The second time I moved the force to a location (using two sets of debugging tools) bordering Faeroes Gap to check for an interception. The third time was a creative use of the tools to move into the North Atlantic, and for that case an interception didn't matter even if it succeeded, since the fleet would remain there anyway.

As I said, I apologize for this digression, but I expect this bug will be fixed soon, and will no longer be a problem. I thought this might give you a little better understanding of what we do as beta-testers (and also some of the things I have to deal with to show you the game).

Please take note: I haven't lied to you at all about the game being playable from start to finish. I hope you believe me when I say that. Every now and then a minor bug pops up that makes things a little more difficult, that's all. I've already told you about a few of them. Maybe I should have mentioned this one sooner, but none of us (including Steve, I think) expected the work he's been doing on Supply to be as difficult as it was, so I was just waiting for this to be fixed . . . which meant it would no longer be an issue. I decided to mention it now (as I already said) because of the request that I show some more images of the active areas, and this image clearly shows me playing the game like an idiot . . . unless you take the bug into account.
-----
And now, back to business:

Notice that the Italian fleet is disorganized. That's why I decided to bite the bullet and invest in the SynthOil for both Italy and Japan after the last turn. Yes, it will be Summer 1941 before it goes online, and hopefully Iraq will be part of the Italian Empire by then, but if all goes well (ha ha ha), Barbarossa will be about to begin, and every drop of oil is going to be needed.

But I'm getting ahead of myself here. Who said I don't plan several turns ahead? Oh, I think it was me in the previous post . . .

Anyway, here are the realities of the Egyptian scenario:

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 725

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 9:14:35 AM

Red Prince

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"And now for something completely different . . ."

I give you . . . Paraguay!

Possibly the most vital Minor nation in the game!

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 726

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 10:33:33 AM

Red Prince

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We start the first impulse of J/A '40 with several Naval Attacks in the making against the Allied fleets.

Once more, the argument for luck overcoming strategy (or, in this case a desperate strategy to gain the first move helping to add to luck):

Unable to set its fleet up again before the Axis strikes, the best the CW can do is to add an intercepting NAV to the 0 Box, which should discourage the Italian SUB fleet from going after the convoys . . . but once more the rolls favored the Axis. With 8 Surprise Points to spend, Italy chose a Surface Combat (which it should have done last time, instead of the Submarine Combat), and spent the remaining 4 points to increase its columns.

Final result, 1 destroyed ASW Escort and 3 Aborted Convoys. In the 2nd round of combat, both sides failed their search rolls. Fortunately, the CW has at least 5 convoys in reserve to replace these, but if they don't get those SUBs out of there soon, they could be facing a lot of trouble.

The image below shows the form used to select which sea boxes to include. I forgot to change the radio button settings from "Show Damage" to "Show Sea Box Sections", but the SUBs and the CW SCS fleet are all in the 2 Box, while the NAV, ASW Escort, and Convoys are all in the 0 Box. Naturally, with such a good roll, Italy only chose to go after the units in the 0 Box, ignoring the SCS completely.

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 727

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 10:58:18 AM

warspite1

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

"And now for something completely different . . ."

I give you . . . Paraguay!

Possibly the most vital Minor nation in the game!

Warspite1

That's useful Aaron thank-you

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 728

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 11:47:29 AM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

That's useful Aaron thank-you

Just thought I'd add a little random cheer to this AAR.

(You're gonna need it, Rob -- see the next post)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to warspite1)

Post #: 729

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 11:54:57 AM

warspite1

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

That's useful Aaron thank-you

Just thought I'd add a little random cheer to this AAR. (You're gonna need it, Rob -- see the next post)

Warspite1

If that means what I think it means then you're sacked!!

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 730

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 12:19:16 PM

Red Prince

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And now for something completely . . . not something you're going to like:

At the cost of losing its initiative advantage, the Axis forced a re-roll to go first this turn. Questionable move, perhaps. But it paid off . . . so far, at least.

The Italian SUB force did a decent job, but in the end it's really a neutral gain, not really doing much damage to the Allied war effort.

Well, Germany forced the issue in the North Sea. This image shows the units involved (Germany actually added another FTR to the 1 Box after the first round of combat):

In all, there were 4 rounds of Naval Combat, and the Allies found the Axis fleet in 3 of them. And the Axis found the Allies in 3 of them. However, the Allies were forced to abandon the North Sea! (Told you that you wouldn't like it).

Strangely, this was the result of "good" luck for the CW. 3 or 4 of its CA that should have been Damaged (but still able to fight on) got "lucky" with the roll and had to Abort instead, leaving the fleet short of ships.

The only truly bad luck was only marginally bad, and might simply have been poor decision making on my part. Fighting an Air-to-Air combat in the 2nd round of the Naval Combat, these were the results:

Air-to-Air Combat Round 1 favors Axis +2/-2
.....Allied Roll = 11 (DC - no bombers present), Axis Roll = 14 (AA - Germany aborts front bomber)
.....Both sides Stay
Air-to-Air Combat Round 2 favors Axis +2/-2
.....Allied Roll = 13 (AC - no bombers present), Axis Roll = 15 (DX PX - CW front fighter shot down, Pilot survives)
.....Both sides Stay
Air-to-Air Combat Round 3 favors Axis +3/-3
.....Allied Roll = 20 (AX PX - FTR shot down, Pilot killed), Axis Roll = 3 (AX - front bomber shot down, Pilot survives)
.....No Air units remain to fight, no bombers got through

So, the Germans lost a FTR and a Pilot, while the CW lost 2 of its CVP. Both pilots survived, though. No, I don't know if this was bad judgement on my part or not.

In the end:
*Germany had a CA Damaged and a CL Destroyed, plus the FTR-2 and its Pilot. It also had 2 of its fleet Aborted
*The CW had a CA Destroyed, plus the 2 CVP, and 3 CA Aborted
*France had both of its SUBs Destroyed, not as a result of combat, but due to the fact that there was no port within range to which it could rebase after the CW chose to Abort from Combat.

The reason for that choice was simple: the CW had some very naked CVs sitting in the North Sea with very little protection remaining, and even though it faired better now than in previous turns, there was little point in trying to take on the Germans with only 12 attack factors remaining (yes, I counted them before deciding) against the 27 factors Germany still has there.

The fleet that I left in the North Sea at the end of last turn should have been enough, but the addition of the French BB to the German fleet could not have been expected at the time I chose which units would remain. In order to restructure the fleet, as I've been told I need to do, it should take only "one impulse". That's true, and I began it with my end-of-turn rebasing. But you just can't plan for everything.

At the moment, I'm worried that the BB fleet I sent to Plymouth at the end of last turn may not be able to handle the Germans. I don't know. I'll figure it out at the beginning of the next Allied impulse.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/5/2012 12:20:12 PM >

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 731

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 12:25:35 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

That's useful Aaron thank-you

Just thought I'd add a little random cheer to this AAR. (You're gonna need it, Rob -- see the next post)

Warspite1

If that means what I think it means then you're sacked!!

So, Rob, am I sacked?

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to warspite1)

Post #: 732

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 12:35:36 PM

warspite1

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The Royal Navy abandon the North Sea?!?! Noooooo!!!!

The game is borked!!!!!!!

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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Post #: 733

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 12:42:27 PM

Red Prince

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To misquote the Terminator . . . "They'll be back!"

But there is more bad news for you . . . the Italian Ground Strike on Gibraltar should have resulted in an expected 30% success rate . . . well:

Now, feel free to tell me I was an idiot for having the LND there in the first place. The NAV had to be there, as it was aborted from a Naval Combat last turn, but the LND should have been in Morocco. Honestly, I can't explain the reason they weren't there. I did have them there, but for some reason thought I should get them into Gibraltar . . . maybe to clear space for someone else? I just don't know.

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to warspite1)

Post #: 734

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 2:06:58 PM

Red Prince

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Ready for the first attack on Gibraltar?

Well, here it is, along with the attack on Chengtu:

And the results:

Attack on Chengtu: Assault, Fractional Odds .754 (Yes), Roll = 9 = */2S; USE-9 (no chit)
Attack on Gibraltar: Assault, Fractional Odds .223 (Yes), Roll = 5+1 = 6 = 1/1 (Berlin MIL destroyed, attackers disorganized, AT destroyed)

And don't I wish those rolls had been reversed. If so, I still would have steamed through Chengtu, but I also would have taken Gibraltar by shattering its units!

Oh, well. I was only hoping for 1 or 2 units destroyed there this impulse, and that's what I got . . . a single unit destroyed. The reason I chose the AT instead of the London MIL is that because both sides lost an equal number of units, the MIL remains organized . . . and the AT started out disorganized. Germany can still put up a fight using non-armor units for a while yet, so I was looking at either 12 doubled to 24 or 9 doubled to 18 by the terrain. Easy choice for me. Also, I know I can easily get another division into Gibraltar quickly. I'm not so certain about another Corps.

I was hoping (as Germany) for somthing a little more brilliant, but I'll take it. Now it's time to bring in the heavy bombers to help with the job.

Oh, and another thought . . . I didn't use the LND that is in Gibraltar for the CW as Ground Support because it would have had to fight an Air-to-Air combat at +4/-4 (not on the good end) in order to help out. During the Allied impulse, the RSA FTR will be able to join the fun, evening the odds out a little bit.

Damn good thing the rolls went the way they did and weren't reversed. Not only would it have been almost ridiculously lucky for the Axis, but Rob (warspite1) probably would have ripped my head off . . . from all the way across a very big ocean, even.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/5/2012 2:07:15 PM >

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 735

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 2:22:03 PM

Red Prince

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That was pretty much it for the Axis impulse. Germany rebased 5 more LND into the region, and Japan rebased a few Ground Support factors a little farthur north toward the Communists.

HQ-A Guderian reorganized the 9-4 INF and one of the LND nearby, but I forgot to leave an air mission open to use for the ATR to reorganize one of the units in Tangier. It's just as well, since I might want to use him for a Paradrop soon.

Now it is time for the CW to recover the North Sea, try to retake the W. Med, set up some shore bombardment for Gibraltar, and possibly do some harm in the E. Med, too. Oh, and of course, there's the matter of getting reinforcements into Egypt, Morocco, Gibraltar . . . and have I missed anything?

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 736

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 4:25:30 PM

composer99

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RE: China

I recommend the Japanese screen Kunming. The pitiful Nationalist forces now present and the low Chinese production mean they can be screened until the Japanese either finish off the Communists or decide to end their Chinese offensive. In the meantime they should threaten to flank the Communist line and run at a poorly-defended Lanchow, forcing the Communists to pull back into their cities.

If the Japanese take at least one of Lanchow or Sian and also cut off the Burma Road (either by taking Kunming or by occupying a hex on the road, preferably with a white print unit) they can probably rest on their laurels in China.

Re: North Sea

The build point losses favour the CW in that exchange (I calculate 5 CW to 7 Ge assuming the sunk CW cruiser was a total of 3 bp) and I'm guessing that the two smaller planes (esp. the Nimrod) were the ones that were destroyed, so I think the CW came out ahead even though it had to abort. Before the CW sends a fleet back out I would consider using an HQ in the UK, if you have one, to reorg the CV which still has a CVP on it and maybe a CA/CL or two (if it has the reorg capacity) so they can go out as well now that the Germans are short air cover.

Re: Egypt

Wavell is an HQ-A, meaning he is equivalent to an ARM unit. This means the Italians need more ARM, not just more blitz units, to call the table. An HQ-A and a MECH will not suffice; the CW can still pick the table. Not sure it will make a big difference (although it might since the CW can use shore bombardment while the Italians won't be able to).

Re: Gibraltar

If you were playing with the 2d10 table, I'd think a paradrop was a no-brainer: the PARA gives +1 to the roll and including the notional gives another +1, while the notional itself would be 2 factors (1 factor doubled) which I doubt would reduce the DRM by -2. Since as far as I know no similar modifiers exist in the 1d10 table, you'd have to crunch the numbers.

If you have the TRS to spare with the CW (and you probably don't), I'd suggest using some to reorg the 7-3 INF in Gibraltar. The FTR, once it deploys, should be used against ground strikes rather than ground support as success in the former is usually more important (especially given the CW can use DSB to boost up the defending factors) for helping the attacker in combat.

One piece of good news for the CW: as far as I can see the Axis can't cut supply to Gibraltar this turn with the German fleet committed to the North Sea. The Germans should rebase the fleet to Brest either at the end of the turn or abort it during the next naval combat in the North Sea so they can send the fleet to Cape St Vincent in future turns.

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Post #: 737

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 4:35:00 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

RE: China

I recommend the Japanese screen Kunming. The pitiful Nationalist forces now present and the low Chinese production mean they can be screened until the Japanese either finish off the Communists or decide to end their Chinese offensive. In the meantime they should threaten to flank the Communist line and run at a poorly-defended Lanchow, forcing the Communists to pull back into their cities.

If the Japanese take at least one of Lanchow or Sian and also cut off the Burma Road (either by taking Kunming or by occupying a hex on the road, preferably with a white print unit) they can probably rest on their laurels in China.

Re: North Sea

The build point losses favour the CW in that exchange (I calculate 5 CW to 7 Ge assuming the sunk CW cruiser was a total of 3 bp) and I'm guessing that the two smaller planes (esp. the Nimrod) were the ones that were destroyed, so I think the CW came out ahead even though it had to abort. Before the CW sends a fleet back out I would consider using an HQ in the UK, if you have one, to reorg the CV which still has a CVP on it and maybe a CA/CL or two (if it has the reorg capacity) so they can go out as well now that the Germans are short air cover.

Re: Egypt

Wavell is an HQ-A, meaning he is equivalent to an ARM unit. This means the Italians need more ARM, not just more blitz units, to call the table. An HQ-A and a MECH will not suffice; the CW can still pick the table. Not sure it will make a big difference (although it might since the CW can use shore bombardment while the Italians won't be able to).

Re: Gibraltar

If you were playing with the 2d10 table, I'd think a paradrop was a no-brainer: the PARA gives +1 to the roll and including the notional gives another +1, while the notional itself would be 2 factors (1 factor doubled) which I doubt would reduce the DRM by -2. Since as far as I know no similar modifiers exist in the 1d10 table, you'd have to crunch the numbers.

If you have the TRS to spare with the CW (and you probably don't), I'd suggest using some to reorg the 7-3 INF in Gibraltar. The FTR, once it deploys, should be used against ground strikes rather than ground support as success in the former is usually more important (especially given the CW can use DSB to boost up the defending factors) for helping the attacker in combat.

One piece of good news for the CW: as far as I can see the Axis can't cut supply to Gibraltar this turn with the German fleet committed to the North Sea. The Germans should rebase the fleet to Brest either at the end of the turn or abort it during the next naval combat in the North Sea so they can send the fleet to Cape St Vincent in future turns.

Except for my misunderstanding of the HQ-A thing, you've pretty much read my mind.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 6:35:43 PM

Shannon V. OKeets

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Ready for the first attack on Gibraltar?

Well, here it is, along with the attack on Chengtu:

And the results:

Attack on Chengtu: Assault, Fractional Odds .754 (Yes), Roll = 9 = */2S; USE-9 (no chit)
Attack on Gibraltar: Assault, Fractional Odds .223 (Yes), Roll = 5+1 = 6 = 1/1 (Berlin MIL destroyed, attackers disorganized, AT destroyed)

And don't I wish those rolls had been reversed. If so, I still would have steamed through Chengtu, but I also would have taken Gibraltar by shattering its units!

Oh, well. I was only hoping for 1 or 2 units destroyed there this impulse, and that's what I got . . . a single unit destroyed. The reason I chose the AT instead of the London MIL is that because both sides lost an equal number of units, the MIL remains organized . . . and the AT started out disorganized. Germany can still put up a fight using non-armor units for a while yet, so I was looking at either 12 doubled to 24 or 9 doubled to 18 by the terrain. Easy choice for me. Also, I know I can easily get another division into Gibraltar quickly. I'm not so certain about another Corps.

I was hoping (as Germany) for somthing a little more brilliant, but I'll take it. Now it's time to bring in the heavy bombers to help with the job.

Oh, and another thought . . . I didn't use the LND that is in Gibraltar for the CW as Ground Support because it would have had to fight an Air-to-Air combat at +4/-4 (not on the good end) in order to help out. During the Allied impulse, the RSA FTR will be able to join the fun, evening the odds out a little bit.

Damn good thing the rolls went the way they did and weren't reversed. Not only would it have been almost ridiculously lucky for the Axis, but Rob (warspite1) probably would have ripped my head off . . . from all the way across a very big ocean, even.

What about an attack on Tangiers by the British? There is either one less German in the hex or else there are two disorganized Germans there. With BB support that might work out to a nice number. Success would kill off the Italian fighter too - and disorganize whatever else the Axis have stacked there.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 6:40:09 PM

Centuur

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You've done the right thing with you're attack on Gibraltar last impulse. However, things are probably going to get worse the next two impulses, because of CW shore bombardment factors, which are going to aid the defenders. However: keep attacking the Rock ever impulse. I would suggest using the PARA after the CW has exhausted his defensive shore bombardment (probably the third Axis impulse from now). In the that impulse, it's time to really gamble: use the best HQ you've got to assist in the attack (using HQ support). Also: try to get ART into the area (the heaviest one available), since it can add his factors from the hex northeast of Gibraltar.
"It is summertime, and the living is easy"... Meaning: it is a long turn, so take you're time weakening the defenses of the Rock, before making you're final assault...

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 6:51:47 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Ready for the first attack on Gibraltar?

Well, here it is, along with the attack on Chengtu:

And the results:

Attack on Chengtu: Assault, Fractional Odds .754 (Yes), Roll = 9 = */2S; USE-9 (no chit)
Attack on Gibraltar: Assault, Fractional Odds .223 (Yes), Roll = 5+1 = 6 = 1/1 (Berlin MIL destroyed, attackers disorganized, AT destroyed)

And don't I wish those rolls had been reversed. If so, I still would have steamed through Chengtu, but I also would have taken Gibraltar by shattering its units!

Oh, well. I was only hoping for 1 or 2 units destroyed there this impulse, and that's what I got . . . a single unit destroyed. The reason I chose the AT instead of the London MIL is that because both sides lost an equal number of units, the MIL remains organized . . . and the AT started out disorganized. Germany can still put up a fight using non-armor units for a while yet, so I was looking at either 12 doubled to 24 or 9 doubled to 18 by the terrain. Easy choice for me. Also, I know I can easily get another division into Gibraltar quickly. I'm not so certain about another Corps.

I was hoping (as Germany) for somthing a little more brilliant, but I'll take it. Now it's time to bring in the heavy bombers to help with the job.

Oh, and another thought . . . I didn't use the LND that is in Gibraltar for the CW as Ground Support because it would have had to fight an Air-to-Air combat at +4/-4 (not on the good end) in order to help out. During the Allied impulse, the RSA FTR will be able to join the fun, evening the odds out a little bit.

Damn good thing the rolls went the way they did and weren't reversed. Not only would it have been almost ridiculously lucky for the Axis, but Rob (warspite1) probably would have ripped my head off . . . from all the way across a very big ocean, even.

What about an attack on Tangiers by the British? There is either one less German in the hex or else there are two disorganized Germans there. With BB support that might work out to a nice number. Success would kill off the Italian fighter too - and disorganize whatever else the Axis have stacked there.

The last unit is a light Italian AA 2-3 . . . so the total stack becomes about 30 factors (assuming the CW uses the MECH), I think, with German Air support close enough to nearly double that. Even with a +2, The CW will find it to be a very costly attack.

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Post #: 741

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 6:54:06 PM

Centuur

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If the CW makes an attack on Tangier, it better be a good one, since he needs to clear the hex. If he doesn't clear the hex, that means there are a lot of shore bombardment factors the CW can't use to defend Gibraltar and he hasn't got the opportunity walk units into Gibraltar to replace units lost. That's a situation I wouldn't want to get in.
Also: it needs a land or combined impulse to do so. And that's something I wouldn't want to do as the CW now. I would want to take a naval impulse and start moving the fleet and be as aggressive as possible against the Germans in the North Sea and the Italians in the Western and Eastern Med. Kill as much enemy ships as possible. Also, the CW will block the Italian TRS moving around. If the Italians abort from the Western Med, you get even an out of supply situation in Tangier, and that makes that the target for next land impulse. And with you're shore bombardment factors in place to defend Gibraltar, you're gaining time.
If the Germans haven't got land units on the AMPH/TRS capable of invading the UK, I wouldn't bother with that German fleet in the North Sea now.

Communist China should start a slow withdrawal, aiming to defend with double stacks against Japanese units coming from the south. You might want to leave Sian, since you don't want to get cut off from Lan Chow. That city is better to defend than Sian. However: keep looking for opportunities to kill Japanese units by the Commies...
Don't even think of surrendering China. You can start that debate again after the turn has ended.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 6:55:23 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

You've done the right thing with you're attack on Gibraltar last impulse. However, things are probably going to get worse the next two impulses, because of CW shore bombardment factors, which are going to aid the defenders. However: keep attacking the Rock ever impulse. I would suggest using the PARA after the CW has exhausted his defensive shore bombardment (probably the third Axis impulse from now). In the that impulse, it's time to really gamble: use the best HQ you've got to assist in the attack (using HQ support). Also: try to get ART into the area (the heaviest one available), since it can add his factors from the hex northeast of Gibraltar.
"It is summertime, and the living is easy"... Meaning: it is a long turn, so take you're time weakening the defenses of the Rock, before making you're final assault...

That's my intent . . . I need to get my HQs down there quickly, though. They are somewhat scattered from the front to Bayonne. I do have the ART in the hex you are talking about, and used him already. I'll reorganize him with the first available HQ. If I can get an HQ in range each impulse to keep the hex beside Gibraltar available, I can then use my O-chit to "flip" them all once they are all used up, if that becomes necessary.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 8:23:14 PM

Orm

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quote:

Now, here's a question for you. Even reading the rules, I sometimes have trouble with this: is it worth adding a PARA into an attack on Gibraltar in the first wave? or does the Notional Unit it creates actually make things harder?

In low odds attacks (using 1d10 table and fractional odds) on Gibraltar adding a PARA is always a benefit. If Germany adds a PARA in the attack on Gibraltar I doubt that there is a benefit to add the Notional Unit to the defence. Most likely the Notional increase the odds for Germany to capture Gibraltar.

Edit: I forgot to mention that the Blitz bonus is in play here and that has a huge impact.

< Message edited by Orm -- 1/5/2012 8:39:20 PM >

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 8:31:50 PM

composer99

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Orm: Do you mind showing the working for that conclusion? I don't know the 1d10 table very well at all and would appreciate the lesson.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 8:36:06 PM

Orm

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I think it would be nice if Royal Navy could make an attempt to break the Italian sea supply in the eastern Med.

Two more CW land units defending Egypt could work a long way in securing Suez.

I belive USSR needs to DOW Iraq as soon as possible. USSR should be able to get one HQ down to Persia this turn with one, or more, land units. A declaration of war on Iraq next turn would secure the south front from German influence.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 8:36:30 PM

composer99

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Also, if the CW gets the army & air force in place to go on the offensive in northern Morocco, I would suggest first clearing out hexes around Tangiers so as to attack it from all sides, including by invasion & paradrop (reducing the requirements for shore bombardment, it so happens).

At the moment I don't think the CW has the land unit numbers to handle a bad land combat result. Best to wait until the German HQs and air force are needed against USSR.

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Post #: 747

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 9:02:58 PM

Centuur

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From: Hoorn (NED).
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

quote:

Now, here's a question for you. Even reading the rules, I sometimes have trouble with this: is it worth adding a PARA into an attack on Gibraltar in the first wave? or does the Notional Unit it creates actually make things harder?

In low odds attacks (using 1d10 table and fractional odds) on Gibraltar adding a PARA is always a benefit. If Germany adds a PARA in the attack on Gibraltar I doubt that there is a benefit to add the Notional Unit to the defence. Most likely the Notional increase the odds for Germany to capture Gibraltar.

Edit: I forgot to mention that the Blitz bonus is in play here and that has a huge impact.

I agree on the use of the PARA. However, wait until later in the turn. The defense of Gibraltar have to be as weak as possible, to give the Germans the chanche to clear the hex. At this time, if the CW gets shore bombardment in place, it is better to weaken that defenses by making attacks in the next two Axis impulses, without the PARA. That will exhaust the CW shore bombardment capabilities, so that the fourth attack this turn should be made with the PARA and hopefully it than gets to clear the hex. And don't forget: a 1-1 attack always might result in a 10 being rolled, thus clearing the hex. Every unit the CW lose, he needs to replace in Gibralter. And the replacements aren't going to be better units than the ones which are there now.
The blitz bonus in 1D10 is only used in clear terrain. Gibraltar isn't. The only modifiers available are from attacking face down units and the PARA gives another modifier.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 9:13:13 PM

Orm

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

Orm: Do you mind showing the working for that conclusion? I don't know the 1d10 table very well at all and would appreciate the lesson.

In my post I forgot to mention that the Blitz bonus is in effect and that gives the attack +1 on the die roll �f the PARA is included in the attack.

Some years ago I was in the position to attack Gibraltar with the 1d10 in play and fractional odds and the blitz bonus. Since fractional odds is in play and there are already so many defence factors it is likely that just a couple of attack or defence factors extra will not affect the final combat odds as much as an extra die modifier. And if the defender has 3 land units in Gibraltar you need a shatter result. We counted alot on this and so did the defenders and we all reached the same conclusion. Bonus on the die roll is more important. Here is an example to show you.

Normal attack with 52 attacking factors versus 26 defending factors = 2-1 -> 20% to capture Gibraltar.
Adding a 4 strength PARA to same attack gives you 56:26 = 2-1 + 1 (with 15% to get 3-1 +1) -> 30% to capture Gibraltar (with 15% to get 40%).
And now I add the notional defender to the attack and that gives 56:28 = 2-1 + 2 -> 40% to capture Gibraltar.

So the die roll bonus recieved from the PARA and the notional increase the odds for Gibraltar to be lost.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Orm -- 1/5/2012 9:17:07 PM >

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/5/2012 9:30:25 PM

morgil

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Interesting thread. However, these odds calculations are baffling at best, but then I have never used anything but 2d10.
We just take (attacker/defender)*2 add the various bonuses from different units, roll for the fractional and then add that to the die roll.
Usually we also have one attack roll and a defence roll, more fun, less random.

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