Red Prince
Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
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And here it is, my End of Turn Report for S/O '40:
Partisans
1 Partisan in Hungary (CW) placed in Debrecen
Entry Markers
USSR placed 1 marker on Defense (291 [3])
Germany placed 2 markers on Offense (281 [3], 54 [1])
US Entry
USA drew 1 marker to the Ja Entry Pool (279 [3])
USA chooses Chinese Build Aircraft (Ja), adjusted by -3; USE-Auto (no chit moved)
Ge/It Entry: 31
Ge/It Tension: 22
Chance of DOW: 0%
Japan Entry: 28
Japan Tension: 21
Chance of DOW: 0%
Pre-Build Scrapping
None
Builds:
China (1): 1 x CAV Division
CW (15): 2 x INF, 1 x TERR, 2 x TRS(2nd)
France (0): 1 x Retrain Pilot, 1 x Convoy
USA (20): 2 x TRS(1st), 1 x CV(2nd), 1 x NAV-3, 1 x Pilot, 1 x Factory
USSR (17): 2 x INF, 1 x MECH, 1 x ARM
Germany (19): 1 x INF, 1 x MIL, 1 x TERR, 2 x MECH, 2 x SUB(1st)
Italy (11): 2 x TERR, 1 x LND-3, 1 x SUB(2nd), 1 x Pilot
Japan (16): 1 x INF, 2 x MIL, 1 x CVP-0, 1 x AMPH(2nd), 1 x TRS(2nd), 1 x SUB(2nd)
N/D '40 Gearing Limits (above 1):
China: 2 x CAV
CW: 4 x Infantry, 3 x Ship
France: 2 x Ship
USA: 4 x Ship, 2 x Air, 2 x Pilot, 2 x Factory
USSR: 3 x Infantry, 3 x Armor
Germany: 4 x Infantry, 3 x Armor, 3 x Submarine
Italy: 3 x Infantry, 2 x Submarine, 2 x Air, 2 x Pilot
Japan: 4 x Infantry, 3 x Ship, 2 x Submarine, 2 x Air
Conquest:
Syria cc by Italy
Nyasaland cc by Italy
China Declined to Surrender to Japan
Factory Destruction:
Japan destroyed Blue Factory in Sian
Reinforcements:
CW assigns Pilots to FTR-3 and CVP Class-1
CW places TERR in Delhi, SUB in Liverpool, 2 CV in Plymouth, CVP in Bristol, FTR-3 in London
USA assigns Pilots to NAV-3 and 2 CVP
USA places SUB, NAV-3, 2 CVP, MTN Division in SD, HQ-A Eisenhower and MOT Division in New York
USA removes 2 CVP Class-2 from the map
USSR assigns Pilot to LND
USSR places LND in Gomel, 2 INF and ART in Vitebsk
Germany assigns Pilot to FTR
Germany places TERR in Morocco, MIL in Bremen, FTR and 2 INF in Konigsberg, 2 SUB in Kiel
Italy places TERR in Uganda and Anglo-Egyptian Sudan, GARR in taranto, BB in La Spezia
Japan assigns Pilots to 2 NAV and CVP
Japan places Warlords in Lanchow and Chengtu, MIL in Fukuoka, MIL and ARM in Tokyo, CV with CVP in Tokyo, 2 NAV in Sasebo
Trade Agreements:
CW cancels its Trade Agreement with France
Victory Totals
Axis: 32
Allies: 35
Initiative:
Allies win Initiative 10-5
Allies choose not to move first in N/D '40
Turn 8 N/D '40
Allies win Initiative 10-5
Allies choose not to move first in N/D '40
+1 Allied Initiative
Impulse: 1
Weather: 9
(See the next post for the nasty winter ahead)
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Though it may not seem like it, at the start of this 2nd year of the war, the Allies actually held their own. Yes, they lost Suez, but that gained a nice US Entry chit in the Ja Entry Pool . . . and, because Italy screwed things up, both defenders are still causing a problem for the Axis in the Sinai (which is historically both one of the least hospitible evnironments in the world and also, dating back to ancient times, the most active battlefield the world has ever seen). Also in the Middle-East, the French lost Syria. No surprise there, and it means Iraq is sure to align with Italy very soon . . . but that was something Italy planned to do 2 turns ago. That means for the 2nd turn in a row Italy has only been able to reorganize about half of its fleet. Not bad, I'd say, for the tiny force the Allies had available to foil Axis plans in the region. We all knew they couldn't be held back forever, but another turn bought is another turn gained.
US Entry continues to demonstrate the fickle nature of the average American. At the start of the turn, in early September, it looked like there might be problems here. Although the USA only drew 2 chits (including the End of Turn chit), they were both high. Yes, I consider a '2' to be a high chit in a year that has a 55% chance of drawing a chit with a lower value. So, even though things were looking bad at the start of the turn, Halloween was definitely a "trick or treat" event. The USA got a treat, and they got to trick the Axis, too. And all of this happened about a week before the 1940 Presidential election. Do you think FDR will win an unprecedented 3rd term in office? I do. 
China is on its last leg, and given the first weather roll (see below), a Surrender might have been worth it. Then again, Japan isn't likely to have much success with either of its current needs: redeployment or an attack on Kunming.
The Soviets may have some trouble redeploying for a Barbarossa defense, given the fact that a new ice age has set in. If things look too scary as the end of December approaches, they can still do a little border stuffing by moving some of the air forces back toward the border, but it looks like Germany will be able to get enough units there to break the Pact early next year using rail moves and the better movement rates allowed by Snow in the N. Temperate Zone.
At long last, the RN is finally getting some results! Two victories may not seem like a lot, and neither was truly decisive, but it's a lot better than the ongoing failures of the first year of the war. Most of the CW convoy pipeline managed to get into place, and the rest should be easy to fix. Also, almost every naval unit not needed elsewhere was able to rebase to Plymouth; there are now 39 ships docked there (I'll show what they are soon, if I can figure out how to do it easily). The one thing lacking is sealift near the UK. Of the 4 TRS available to the CW, 3 are docked in Cape Town and Bombay, with the last one in Nigeria (yes, Nigeria). These can either evacuate Wavell (but not the other 2 units, I'm afraid), or they can bring him more troops. One of the Italian TERR units went to Anglo-Egyptian Sudan, but that's just a speed bump. With 8 factors still sitting in the Sinai, if Wavell wanted to make a run for Khartoum, he might be able to get it -- Italy will have 2 stacks, widely separated, to deal with in East Africa, then. Of course, Wavell will need to get to Port Sudan first, to keep in supply, and that might not be easy to do in the short term.
The USA now has all 3 of its Pacific Ocean Victory Cities double-stacked with the reinforcement of Pago Pago. This may hurt the CW by forcing Japan to claim its lands instead of trying or the US territories, but it means there are good bases to launch a counter-offensive when the time comes.
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A quick reminder of what I defined as the Axis goals for S/O '40:
1. Japan needs to finish off the Communists, and if it can, the Nationalists, too, then relocate its units into position for future warfare.
2. Italy needs to align Iraq, eliminate French defenders in Syria, and try to finish off the CW units in the Suez area.
3. Germany needs to finish the job in Morocco, then redeploy for Barbarossa. One decision that needs to be made concerns Murmansk and the possibility of taking it from the USSR.
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All three of these were only half completed. The Nationalist Chinese are still around and Japan hasn't started its redeployment yet; Iraq is still Neutral (though not for long) and the CW still has a strong presence in the region; and Germany hasn't finished its redeployment for Barbarossa.
On that last point, the German decision to cross the Sahara now looks like it might have been a mistake. How often does it actually Rain in the Sahara, though? I stick by the decision, because if you look at the Storms over Spain (which is where they would be now), the terrain would be almost as bad for movement. Of course, they'd be in supply the whole way without risk of it being cut. But who expects Rain in the Sahara? Apparently not me. 
Once Italy has full control of Iraq, its fleet should be much more menacing . . . and active. After Iraq is aligned, it's time to chase the CW away for good.
As for Japan, it needs to Ground Strike the lone Communist MTN unit at the first possible opportunity. If it can do that, it doesn't even need to try to destroy it; right now it's more important that the best troops redeploy for useful activities . . . invasions, Siberian conquest, walking to India, whatever.
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Overall, I think the Allies "won" this round. The bad things that were bound to happen did happen, but other bad things that might have happened did not. One thing the CW really needs to watch, though, is the start of a full-scale SUB war, now that Germany has 5 SUBs on the map. Even with this threat, the Allies chose to let the Axis have the first move, hoping to shift the Initiative another +1 in their favor.
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So, at the beginning of November, 1940, here is what the world looks like:
 Attachment (1)
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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH
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