Red Prince
Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011 From: Bangor, Maine, USA Status: offline
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And here is the "Continental Defense" for the USSR. Since the Wallies needed to reset a convoy pipeline from Australia to Canada and the UK, the odds of the turn ending after this impulse are going to be 40% instead of the 50% that the Soviets hoped to have. If the turn doesn't end, the German impulse will have a 50% chance of ending the turn . . . and if that doesn't happen, Allied Impulse #12 can be pushed up to a 70% chance. For reference, J/A '40 lasted only until Impulse #11. The Allies still have a +1 on the Initiative track, and are likely to demand a re-roll if they fail to gain the initiative. Now, for some of the troubles the Soviets face: ----- The northern stack is dead meat, unable to move without becoming disorganized, unless Koniev moves to one of the 2 hexes west of Penza. Also, the stack to the northwest of Stalingrad has to make that a hero city, I think . . . or somebody does. One of those Oil Points can be used for production there each turn, and as long as the city doesn't get cut off by ZOC, the rest can be used to reorganize units. Krasnodar is going to need some support, or it isn't likely to last the turn. The attempt to use it as bait to free up a spot in Sevastapol failed when the Germans decided to Air Transport a MTN Division instead of moving the PARA. If the Russians want, they can try to kill him (and destroy the ATR and its Pilot, too) on a 3:1/4:1 +1 Blitz. They'd have to use either the ARM or MECH from the river bend east of Rostov, though. and the best they could get is 15:4 odds with the GARR, or 17:4 odds if they use both the ARM and the MECH. In the latter case, it would be 4:1 +1 with a 25% chance at 5:1 +1 . . . which, at 4:1 +1, has a 100% chance to dislodge or kill the defender, a 20% chance to lose one of those strong units, a 40% chance that they'll end up disorganized, and 60% chance that they can make a Breakthrough into Kerch. The Russians baited the Germans, so now the Germans are baiting the Russians -- using those 2 units means creating a very weak spot in the line near Rostov. As for Rostov, unless one of the units moves out of the city soon, there will be no place to put the MIL if/when it is rebuilt at the end of the turn. Of the 10 MIL units destroyed this turn, only 4 can be rebuilt (assuming Stalingrad is held). Of course, moving a unit out of Rostov means weakening the defenses there, and there are a lot of Germans in the area. At some point those defenses will become too weak, and the Germans will try to take advantage of it. Placing a LND in the hex next to Rostov is also a form of bait . . . if the Soviets try to use the ART to bombard that hex, it's the same as a free Ground Strike by the Germans on Rostov. I'm going to try to get as much Oil out of this region as possible at the end of the turn, sending it to the Urals, assuming the rail line up from Astrakhan is held. This might cut into Soviet Production, but I'm not certain of that. I still have to figure out what can can actually be shipped out. ----- The USSR never allowed a belief in God within its borders. I think that Comrade Joe might want to start re-thinking that philosophy right about now. He's got to convince his troops to pray for a '4' or less on the End of Turn Roll.
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< Message edited by Red Prince -- 2/5/2012 2:46:07 PM >
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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it! -Lazarus Long, RAH
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