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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

 
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/5/2012 8:41:57 PM   
Red Prince


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Zhukov got his supplies to the defenders, so it's a 3:2 Assault . . .

The attacks:




And the results:

Attack on Persia [70, 74]: Assault, Roll = 7 = 1/1 (Italian INF destroyed, Soviet MTN Division destroyed, attackers disorganized)
Attack on Stavropol: Assault, Roll = 8+1 = 9 = */2S
Attack on Krasnodar: Assault, Fractional Odds .074 (Yes), Roll = 3 = -/2S (attackers disorganized)
Attack on USSR [43, 70]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .005 (Yes), Roll = 10+1 = 11 = */2B (Breakthrough)

Zhukov reduced the chances of losing a unit to 50% and of losing the hex to 20%, and it was just not enough. The hex was saved, but the MTN Division was lost. At least he took an enemy INF with him. At first I was going to let the CAV be destroyed, since both take the same amount of time to build and cost the same . . . but I finally decided that if the mountains are breached, the CAV has more factors in any other type of terrain, so it survives.

For the Italians, the deciding factor was that the Rome MIL is stronger and white print. It costs less and comes back faster, but the Axis needs the strongest units they can get on this line.
-----
Bad luck for the Germans at Krasnodar. They got a terrific Fractional Odds Roll that wasn't needed, and then rolled just short of staying organized. That's pretty good news for the Russians, since only a few of these units could be reorganized by German HQs.
-----
I figured after the last Fractional Odds Roll that I wasn't going to get the one up north, but .005 is the lowest one I've seen in any test run I've made in the last 10 months! 10 seconds later: I guess this attack was just meant to be . . . a 10 on the 3:1 Blitz CRT after that .005, with a +1 die roll modifier? Unheard of . . . and the only possible way the Germans could kill off both defenders. Taking full advantage of the Breakthrough does put one of the German MECH out of supply . . . until an HQ can catch up with it.

The Russians right now are praying desperately that the turn doesn't end yet . . .

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 2/5/2012 8:43:10 PM >


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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/5/2012 8:53:13 PM   
Red Prince


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I could re-run the attack sequence and let the Italians keep their INF if you think I should. If I were playing the Soviets in a real game (and I am, with lots of help and advice), this is what I would have done. The reason being that if the turn doesn't end now, it'll be a 70% chance to end it next impulse. In the 12 turns so far, I think the End of Turn Roll has only missed a 70% chance once. I'd have to look it up to be sure, though.
-----
Edit: At 2:1, the roll would have resulted in a -/1 instead of a 1/1

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 2/5/2012 8:55:22 PM >


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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/5/2012 9:01:39 PM   
Red Prince


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After rebasing some air units, I decided to go ahead and risk reorganizing 3 land units with Rundstedt. It "wastes" one of his reorganization points, but this turn can't possibly go on for more than 2 more Axis impulses, so he's about at the maximum of the range he'll need to get at the moment. I actually don't expect another Axis impulse, but it only cost a net 0.2 Oil to do this, and the Germans just captured the 3 Oil Points in Stalingrad . . .




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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/5/2012 9:05:33 PM   
Red Prince


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While it hurts the Partisan number in China a little, I wanted to get these units into Burma, so I let them be disorganized from the weather . . . and HQ-I Umezu is in position to get them moving again if there should be another Axis impulse before the turn ends.




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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/5/2012 9:09:47 PM   
Red Prince


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You're going to hate this . . . please don't throw anything . . . at least nothing with sharp edges . . .




That's it for J/A '41, folks. At least the Allies gain +1 on the Initiative track . . . not that the +2 helped them last time . . .
-----
End of Turn reports as soon as I can put them together. Before I do, I'll post the current situation for the Soviets.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 2/5/2012 9:11:00 PM >


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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/5/2012 10:05:56 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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If the Axis moves twice in a row after both summer turns, there isn't much the USSR can do about that.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/5/2012 10:18:10 PM   
Red Prince


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There's no possible way I can show you everything at once, so let's start with what's left of the Soviets in the Arctic weather zone:
-----
Note: In the following 4 images, any disorganized units will end up reorganized once the new turn begins, but the supply status of all units will depend on the weather for Impulse #1 of S/O '41.




Attachment (1)

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/5/2012 10:18:14 PM   
Red Prince


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Next up is the North Temperate zone down to just below Tiflis:




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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/5/2012 10:18:18 PM   
Red Prince


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Next, we get the rest of the Soviets down on the Persian border:




Attachment (1)

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/5/2012 10:18:21 PM   
Red Prince


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And finally, Siberia:




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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/5/2012 10:23:29 PM   
Red Prince


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I have several things I need to check and get through before I can post the End of Turn report, so it probably won't get posted until tomorrow morning. I can post a few of the things as usual, though.

The weather for J/A '41 (Turn #12):




Attachment (1)

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/5/2012 10:23:34 PM   
Red Prince


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The units Destroyed during the J/A '41 turn:
-----
Final Soviet losses this turn: 24 units worth 62 BP (including 2 dead Pilots)




Attachment (1)

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 2:47:35 AM   
composer99


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1941 Barbs in this game are... well, let's just say they're a little lopsided.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 2:58:40 AM   
Red Prince


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This is all I'm getting for the USSR this turn, and here's where I'm thinking of placing them . . .




Attachment (1)

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 3:07:29 AM   
Red Prince


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I'm going to sleep now, and I hope to see some recommendations for the Soviet reinforcements if I'm wrong with these (see above) when I wake up. Once they are placed, I'll post my End of Turn Report.
-----
This turn the Soviets had 10 BP to spend, plus the converted a Pilot, so the built:

USSR (10): 3 x INF, 1 x GARR, 1 x Retrain Pilot
-----
In the meantime, here's what the world looks at the start of the war's 3rd year, September 1941:




Attachment (1)

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 4:02:44 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

This is all I'm getting for the USSR this turn, and here's where I'm thinking of placing them . . .




Instead the 4-3 and 6-1 should both go into Tiflis. You have the other two where I would place them.

< Message edited by Shannon V. OKeets -- 2/6/2012 4:03:55 AM >


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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 5:23:24 AM   
Klydon


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That is just a ton of Allied losses at this point with very few losses for the Axis outside of the Japanese naval losses this turn. The losses the Japanese suffered to their fleet is a good start for the Allies as I don't know how much of a ship building program the Japanese went on, but anything they started sort of late is going to take some time to come into service. The other interesting thing will be to see how much pressure the Japanese army can put on India.

I think the Russians are in deep trouble in the Caucasus and a decision is going to have to be made about how many troops you commit there to defend the place. Yes, losing the oil is disasterous, but how much of the Russian army do you allow to be destroyed doing it? The bigger army they have intact where the Germans can't really reach them makes it much tougher on the Germans in the longer run. At this point, it is a good thing the game is going to 1948, because the Allies are going to need the extra couple of years in order to make a come back.

One other newb question as far as the Caucasus goes. It looks like one of the Italian aircraft has a naval air rating. Can they fly in the Caspean in order to disrupt the convoy pipeline there? I wonder if the Axis would benefit from trying to blow it up since the rail line has been cut and if the shipping gets blasted, then the oil should start accumulating down in the Caucasus and Russian production is screwed up even further.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 7:06:59 AM   
paulderynck


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Klydon

One other newb question as far as the Caucasus goes. It looks like one of the Italian aircraft has a naval air rating. Can they fly in the Caspean in order to disrupt the convoy pipeline there? I wonder if the Axis would benefit from trying to blow it up since the rail line has been cut and if the shipping gets blasted, then the oil should start accumulating down in the Caucasus and Russian production is screwed up even further.

Sure they can. It's a sea zone like any other.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 8:37:41 AM   
Red Prince


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

This is all I'm getting for the USSR this turn, and here's where I'm thinking of placing them . . .




Instead the 4-3 and 6-1 should both go into Tiflis. You have the other two where I would place them.

I'll make the change to my plans. The reason I thought the INF should go into Baku is that the Soviet line lost a unit, and assuming the Allies get the 1st impulse, this unit would let them close ranks without risking a breakthrough on this line.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 8:56:10 AM   
Red Prince


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I'm going to put this up first, so that options can be considered (but I'm probably not going to wait 12 hours before starting the turn). My end of turn report will take some time to create, but not too much.

The Allies won the initiative, and they'll move first in S/O '41!




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 10:33:12 AM   
Red Prince


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And here it is, my End of Turn Report for J/A '41:

Partisans
No Partisans

Pre-Build Scrapping
Germany scrapped 1 x FTR-2, 2 x LND-2
CW scrapped 2 x CL
USSR scrapped 2 x INF, 2 x FTR-2

Strategic Bombing
CW conducts Strategic Bombing raid on Prague, Roll = 6+1 = 7 = 1 PP Destroyed

Totals: 1 German Production Point Destroyed

Convoys Destroyed
Japan initiates combat in the Arabian Sea, using CL Abukuma; Axis Roll: 4, Allied: 1; Japan chooses a Surface Combat
.....Japan unnecessarily spends 2 Surprise Points to Increase Columns
.....Japan Destroys 2 CW CP
Japan initiates combat in New Zealand Coast, using SUB 4453; Axis Roll: 4, Allied: 10
.....Japan spends 4 Surprise Points to Choose Naval Combat Type, selects Submarine Combat, 2 to Decrease Columns, 2 to Increase Columns
.....Japan Destroys 2 CW CP

Totals: 4 Allied Convoys Destroyed (4 CW)

Builds:
CW (23): 1 x MAR, 1 x HQ-I, 2 x Convoy, 2 x NAV-3, 1 x BB(Repair), 2 x Pilot
France (0): Nothing
USA (56): 4 x INF, 2 x ARM, 1 x AA, 4 x Convoy, 2 x SUB(1st), 3 x FTR-2, 2 x BB(Repair), 1 x French CA(Repair), 1 x ASW Carrier(2nd), 1 x BB(2nd), 2 x Pilot
USSR (10): 3 x INF, 1 x GARR, 1 x Retrain Pilot
Germany (32): 2 x INF Division, 1 x MIL, 1 x ENG Division, 1 x ARM Division, 2 x FTR-2, 2 x LND-3, 2 x SUB(2nd), 3 x Pilot / 1 x Moscow INF (free)
Italy (17): 1 x INF, 3 x TERR, 1 x Convoy, 1 x LND-3, 2 x Pilot
Japan (22): 1 x INF, 1 x TERR, 1 x Warlord, 2 x Convoy, 1 x FTR-2, 1 x CVP-0, 2 x CV(Repair), 1 x BB(Repair), 1 x CA(Repair), 2 x Pilot / 1 x Manila GARR (free)

S/O '41 Gearing Limits (above 1):
CW: 3 x Infantry, 3 x Ship, 3 x Air, 3 x Pilot
France: None
USA: 5 x Infantry, 3 x Armor, 2 x Artillery, 8 x Ship, 3 x Submarine, 4 x Air, 3 x Pilot
USSR: 5 x Infantry
Germany: 5 x Infantry, 2 x Armor, 3 x Submarine, 5 x Air, 4 x Pilot
Italy: 5 x Infantry, 2 x Shipt, 2 x Air, 3 x Pilot
Japan: 4 x Infantry, 6 x Ship, 3 x Air, 3 x Pilot

Conquest: & Liberation
Philippines cc by Japan
Cyprus cc by Italy
Seychelles cc by Japan
New Guinea cc by Japan
Andaman Islands cc by Japan

Italy liberated Persia
Germany returns territory to Persia

USSR declines to Surrender to Germany

Factory Destruction:
None

Reinforcements:
Germany assigns Pilots to 2 FTR, NAV
Germany places MIL in Minsk, INF in Helsinki, FTR in Hannover, FTR in Vienna, NAV in Bremen, HQ-A Manstein, MECH, and MECH Division in Konigsberg
Germany places MTN in Saarbrucken, INF and INF Division in Kiel, MTN Division in Breslau, 4 SUBs in Kiel
Italy assigns Pilot to NAV
Italy places TERR in Suez, Oran, Ethiopia, NAV in Turin
Japan assigns Pilots to 2 FTR, CVP
Japan places TERR in Mandalay, CVP in Tokyo, 2 FTR in Sasebo
CW assigns Pilots to FTR(IND) and NAV(AUS)
CW places NAV and Convoy in Brisbane, FTR in Hyderabad, AMPH and INF Division in Liverpool, Convoy in Scapa Flow, HQ-I Rydz in London
USA assigns Pilot to CVP
USA places 2 TRS, CV and CVP in New York, Supply Unit in Norfolk
USSR places INF in Tiflis, GARR in Tiflis, Kazan, and Kirov

Trade Agreements:
USA creates new Trade Agreement with USSR, sending 1 resource

Victory Totals
Axis: 43
Allies: 23 (24-1 for aligning both Brazil & Mexico)

Initiative:
Allies win the Initiative 12-8
Allies choose to move first in S/O '41

Turn 13 S/O '41

Allies win the Initiative 12-8
Allies choose to move first in S/O '41
+2 Allied Initiative

Impulse: 1
Weather: 2
(Fine everywhere)
-----
The Soviets are in very rough shape. That's actually putting it mildly . . . they are in terrible shape. The Germans are going to need an O-chit or several attacks to crack open Leningrad if they try it before Snow sets in, but with the weather starting out Fine, Koniev is about to be in some big trouble. He's about to be overtaken from the North, and he's run out of cheap units to be road-blocks. It looks like he's going to have to rail out to the Urals and hope the Germans can't get there before the end of the turn.

The Wallies can only get one more resource delivered to the USSR this turn, due to a temporary lack of Convoys, but at least the Americans have both Murmansk and Archangel covered. They haven't started building O-chits yet, because they take only 3 turns to build and they haven't gotten a true invasion fleet built up yet. They might be able to make an invasion of France this turn, and they have 2 HQs in Ireland now, but they still might find it difficult to follow up and create a real foothold. If they try to invade, it will be with a Combined Action on the 1st impulse (I have to see how strongly I can attack). It would have to be with a MAR and 2 Divisions, and ideally one of those Divisions will be killed -- making room for an HQ to land in the hex in a later impulse. Almost any hex can be pretty easily bottled up to prevent expansion. Unless there is a good chance of turning the invasion away, this means the Germans might do better to just let it happen, and not include the Notional Unit in combat.

The problem here is that the CW will probably want to take a Land Action to start off the turn so that it can improve its position in India and E. Africa while the weather is still good. The Americans can still make the invasion and have an HQ ready to reinforce the landing, but it will leave them without a lot of Ground Support. They might do better to wait an impulse, but that will allow the Germans to close ranks.
-----
The Germans did commit a large number of their incoming forces to moving up on Leningrad, which should please the Wallies, because it means fewer forces to help on the coast if they do invade. However, there is some flexibility for the Germans this turn. The Americans don't get their fresh new AMPHs and transports until next turn, so if this turn lasts 8-9 impulses, the Germans might be able to clear away enough Soviet forces to start returning troops to the West.

Italy started building convoys to deploy in Persia, and they'll probably start sending a small force to cross the Kara-Kum desert and take over Samarkand and Tashkent. Alternately, they might consider putting pressure on India from the West. With the Japanese coming through Burma and already having an HQ on the Indian coast, this could be difficult for the CW, especially if Italy can reach Delhi.

The likely first move for Italy, though, is a Combined or Naval Action, depending on what the Soviets do with their Persian border forces. If they leave a very weak point, a Land Action might be needed, but it has been a while since Italy had a chance to move some of its Naval units, and there's one more invasion to be made in the Med -- the Balearic Islands.

The Japanese now face a good sized American fleet that is gathered in Adelaide, Australia. The question is whether the Americans are going to try to get that fleet to Calcutta or not. The Allies are now limited to Cape Town, Aden, Bombay, Calcutta, Adelaide, and Brisbane for Major Ports in this part of the world. That may sound like a lot, but until the fleets reach the Indian ports, they can't reach high sea boxes, and that favors the Japanese. Also, even though the American fleet is strong, the Japanese are still much stronger here. They do have to set up strong defenses against the American SUBs that reached Calcutta last turn, but they don't have much to fear from the CW SUBs -- those only reached Darwin, and they will have to get to Chittagong this turn.

Fortunately, the Japanese have 2 NAVs in Canton that can react into the China Sea and S. China Sea 0 Boxes, so they might be able to get away with a Land Action during their first impulse this turn. That would help a lot in Siberia, India, the Arabian peninsula, and Burma. It's starting to get to the point in the game which sees the Japanese struggling to find the right Action choice for each impulse. So much to do, and so little time.
-----
Here's the weather at the start of September, 1941:




Attachment (1)

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 11:25:21 AM   
Orm


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I do not think I ever seen a WIF game reaching S/O 1941 with so few Axis losses. With so few losses Axis are in a very strong position. So it will take alot of forces for Allies to make any headway from an invasion in mainland Europe.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 12:36:13 PM   
Red Prince


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The next several posts show you the primary non-Soviet activity in the game.
-----
1 of 8

This shows the forces on the east coast of the United States. All there is on the west coast right now is the Los Angeles MIL and 2 convoys.




Attachment (1)

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 12:36:18 PM   
Red Prince


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2 of 8

Here are the forces currently gathered in the UK. I've used the Naval Review Details (NRD) Form to show the units in Plymouth (left) and Liverpool (right). As you can see, the build-up has started, but more troops are needed for any sustained attacks on the European continent.




Attachment (1)

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 12:36:21 PM   
Red Prince


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3 of 8

This is an overview of what is waiting for the Allies in Western Europe. You can see why the CW made the desperate attempt to clear out the Bay of Biscay here; there are some very nice hexes in the south of Portugal that would make terrific invasion sites. Unfortunately, that didn't work out. So, the best options right now are the hexes between the Rumanian and Yugoslavian forces. I don't know if it can happen, but a foothold would be nice to have here.

Once the Soviets are pretty much cleaned off the map in 1942, the Italians and Germans will start replacing the Yugoslavian and Rumanian forces with veterans of their own. The Rumanians will probably go to the USSR as garrison troops, and the Yugoslavian forces will likely move down into Spain . . . or they might return to Italy and the Balkans if the Allies are starting to threaten a return to the Med.




Attachment (1)

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 12:36:25 PM   
Red Prince


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4 of 8

The Americans are holding on at Murmansk and Archangel for now. It would be nice to swap out HQ-A Eisenhower with HQ-I Clark. Besides the advantage of being an armor HQ, Eisenhower has twice the reorganization ability. Before I do that, though, I want to get 4 full Corps into these cities and pull the Division out of Murmansk (or move him to Finland). Moscow is only 14 hexes away from Archangel. If/when the USSR is conquered, then any number of troops can enter Russia through these 2 cities. Keeping them in Allied hands could make it that much easier to liberate Ivan. It will also force the Germans to leave some strong units around here.




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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 12:36:29 PM   
Red Prince


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The Good
-----
HQ-A Wavell has his troops now, and he's ready to storm up the East African Coast. He only has 25 factors of units to work with, but until he reaches Egypt he'll be running into Territorial units only. This is just too far south and too hard to supply for the Italians, so they won't commit any HQs or regular troops to the region unless both the USSR and India fall to the Axis. If that happens, the Allies probably don't have a prayer (but I'll continue playing anyway -- never say die!).




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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 2247
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 12:36:32 PM   
Red Prince


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The Bad
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Nobody likes to see a Japanese HQ in India, so that's bad. The early effort to send whatever troops were available did help some, though.

While he only has a few Corps with him at the moment, HQ-I Yamashita can probably push into India, possibly all the way to Bombay, if the CW isn't able to reinforce the country. Japan has a lot of sealift right now, and can send more troops as needed. The good weather turns are on the way for Japan, but they are short turns, so Action selection will be crucial to the Japanese.




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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Orm)
Post #: 2248
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 12:36:37 PM   
Red Prince


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The Ugly
-----
Calcutta will be extremely difficult to take, especially if Japan is only able to mount a single attack each turn. I probably should have rebuilt some ENG units to help with this one (I've just put a comment in my notes so that I won't forget to do it). The CW attempt to cut into Burma looks like it failed. Given enough Land Actions, HQ-I Umezu should be able to take this band into the Calcutta region. If they can take Chittagong, it will go a long way toward making a push toward Delhi from the east.

The American fleet in Adelaide just isn't strong enough to take on the Japanese yet, even if they do rebase to Calcutta. They have the CV advantage for the moment, but that won't last long, and the next batch of 5 Essex-class carriers can't show up before J/F '43. The Allies are actually short of ships right now. Many of them are on escort duty with convoys, and many are needed for European operations. Until the Americans can extend their land-based air power into the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and S. China Sea . . . well, India is going to have to fight on its own. I don't even think I'll try to get the American Fleet to Calcutta just yet. For the time being, the SUBs will try to sink Japanese convoys if they can, but that's about it.




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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Orm)
Post #: 2249
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/6/2012 12:36:41 PM   
Red Prince


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What would merry old England do without the Falkland Islands? I mean, if the Americans or French accidentally DOW one of the minor nations in the Americas, Germany can align Argentina!
-----
Note to Rob (and all other Brits reading this post): I don't mean to make fun of the war over the Falkland Islands . . . well, yes I do, but I'm a Yank, aren't I? I have to live up to our reputation and be a blithering idiot every now and then, or someone might inadvertantly get the idea that we are actually decent people, right?




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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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(in reply to Orm)
Post #: 2250
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