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RE: Week 59 Production Figures - 6/22/2012 3:40:43 AM

M60A3TTS

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At some point I may try to write a more detailed article to debunk the myth that heavy industry doesn't matter. I think Pelton started that one.

But with respect to my distinguished former opponent, he couldn't see first-hand what was happening because he didn't play the Soviets and I'm not sure people understand very well how the Soviet production system works. That is the one area I certainly didn't and so i've spent a lot of time diving into lately.

For starters, heavy industry provides all general supplies for the two major components, the Soviet industrial complex and the Red Army. The industrial complex uses general supplies for 4 components: vehicles/trucks, aircraft, ground elements/AFVs, and armaments(artillery pieces/rifles). And it's important for Soviet players to understand that the industrial complex always gets first call on supplies. The Red Army gets whatever is left. What the Red Army gets is general supplies and when they reach an army by way of the supply grid, then magically some of those supplies are converted into ammunition. The rest remains as food for the soldiers and fodder for the horses, along with boots, buckles and so on. If not enough supplies get to the unit, then they do not recover from fatigue well because basically they're going hungry or worse, they're starving.

Since virtually all Soviet players leave heavy industry behind in 1941 due to the high evacuation cost, the basic engine that provides supplies shrinks as these factories disappear. There is a sustantial surplus of general supplies, about 350,000 tons at the start of the war but it gradually is eaten up as the war grinds on. When there isn't much fighting going on, the Red Army can gradually build up stocks. But when the Axis player launches a flurry of attacks over the course of weeks, the defending units can rapidly draw down these supply stocks. The problem then becomes exacerbated the larger the army is as more units are needing to be fed/equipped/supplied etc.

Where it's most difficult for the Soviets is in 1942 because there is only a small HI multiplier to boost the production of supplies and this is the year which can arguably decide who the winner of the game is. It gets better in 1943 and beyond with higher multipliers, but by then of course the Red Army has grown considerably and needs the corresponding boost in supply.

Below I have a comparison of my supply situation in my game with Pelton on turns 40, 70 and 100. Turn 2 is there just to give you an idea what the Red Army starts the war with. The turns below, 55 and 60 are in the current game with farfarer. If you look at Supplies in Units, in Pelton's game I was running anywhere between 65-80% of what the Red Army needed to be properly supplied. It was also a game where I had quite a few less divisions to equip. If you look at the bottom turn 55 where I had 57% of needed supplies, farfarer was in the early stage of the summer campaign and in just 5 turns that fell to 45%. What that means is I basically started the Summer campaign with relatively low supplies and the situation only got worse, which in turn severely limited my Dnepr offensive and made it much more difficult for defending units in the north to get good movement rates at the start of each turn. That is also why you saw so many units with a zero supply level.

My lesson learned then is the Soviet player needs to guard against building an army that effectively can't be supplied by the industrial complex of 1942. The following year is something of a different story once the higher multipliers kick in for Heavy Industry. But the overall aim is a sense of balance between the supply engine and the army.

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Post #: 181

RE: Week 59 Production Figures - 6/22/2012 4:59:15 AM

76mm

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M60, I'm not sure that I understand the point you are making--it doesn't look like you have any particular supply shortage, for instance you always have more than you started the war with? Are you saying that if your army had been bigger it might have been a problem?

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Post #: 182

RE: Week 59 Production Figures - 6/22/2012 5:11:02 AM

Flaviusx

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M60, the reason you are having supply shortages is because your army is humongous for this stage of the game. 8+ million in 1942 is crazy, especially in a PBEM. (Your game is kind of crazy in general, actually. LOL.)

Start disbanding some stuff. You could probably eliminate every non sapper/RR engineer SU for starters, trash all the arty SUs.

< Message edited by Flaviusx -- 6/22/2012 5:17:47 AM >

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Post #: 183

RE: Week 59 Production Figures - 6/22/2012 5:35:18 AM

M60A3TTS

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quote:

ORIGINAL: 76mm

M60, I'm not sure that I understand the point you are making--it doesn't look like you have any particular supply shortage, for instance you always have more than you started the war with? Are you saying that if your army had been bigger it might have been a problem?

The number in the left hand columns indicate what is present. The number in parentheses to the right represents what is required to bring that particular pool to 100% So if you look at fafarer's turn 55 Supplies in Units I had almost 37k of supplies present, but to be fully stocked I need over 65k, so I'm almost 30k short of that level. That's not a good thing. And with a lot of battles the supply system struggles to keep up. In 5 turns, the shortfall grew by another 10k. Units not on the front line or doing little fighting had supplies but a lot didn't. So that means a lot of units that while they may have men, they won't fight well as they will be fatigued and have smaller quantities of ammo.

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Post #: 184

RE: Week 59 Production Figures - 6/22/2012 7:26:18 AM

76mm

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ok, duh, now I get it. Interesting, thanks for pointing that out.

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Post #: 185

RE: Week 59 Production Figures - 6/22/2012 9:06:50 AM

veji1

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This sure is a crazy game... I hope the SHC can stabilise the situation : Massive disband of units and big big big retreat in the south probably, as seeing your supply situation, it looks like the pockets will hold and you will find yourself at a massive risk of being completely flanked. Never seen a game like this before... Looking forward to the next installments.

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Post #: 186

Week 60 - 6/22/2012 12:22:49 PM

M60A3TTS

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WEEK 60 - 8 AUGUST 1942

Antonyuk's Volkhov Front has become hopelessly encircled while Voroshilov's Northwest Front continues to stay supplied through a narrow corridor.

Casualties at least to this point are 4.2 million for the Red Army

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Post #: 187

Week 61 - 6/22/2012 12:48:53 PM

M60A3TTS

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WEEK 61 - 15 AUGUST 1942

The situation in the north finds the Red Army crumbling. The Volkhov Front is eradicated in short order after being surrounded the previous week.

This allows the Germans to focus their attention on not only the Northwest Front, but pushing hard to the south and almost sealing off Moscow. While the Red Army struggles to be adequately supplied it seems their opponent is having no such issues.

This is a good example of one key battle near the Oka in which the depleted strength of the Soviet units allows a numerically inferior force to shove them aside. Fascist collaborators and Fifth columnists are being blamed for this treachery in the Soviet press. Total Soviet losses in this week exceed half a million men and the butcher bill sure to grow.

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Post #: 188

Week 62 - 6/22/2012 1:02:57 PM

M60A3TTS

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WEEK 62 - 20 AUGUST 1942

The Northwest Front pocket suffers the same fate as that of the Volkhov Front the week before. Well supplied German units drive south of Moscow to the Oka trapping the STAVKA armies responsible for the defense of the capital.

The Red Army is at 8 million men no more.

< Message edited by M60A3TTS -- 6/22/2012 1:08:08 PM >

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Post #: 189

RE: Week 62 - 6/22/2012 1:11:05 PM

Flaviusx

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Well, now that you are at 7 million men, the Red Army should be much more manageable! (This is still very big for 1942.)

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Post #: 190

Week 63 - 6/22/2012 1:30:06 PM

M60A3TTS

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WEEK 63 - 27 AUGUST 1942

Moscow is once again in the dark shadows of the Fascist aggressors as the Soviet government has moved to Kharkov. Another half million of our men have vanished from the ranks.
The Germans still have just enough to create another small pocket of the Kalinin Front.

Despite the enormous losses in the last month, the manpower pool has swollen to over a half million men.

Population centers continue to supply our army with new recruits. Likewise, the supply situation is beginning to improve. Armaments continue to be a bottleneck, but with a smaller army, this is hoped to change in the weeks ahead.

Finally, various intelligence reports indicate that the Germans may be reaching a state of exhaustion with the constant fighting over the last several weeks. Although there are six more weeks of clear weather ahead, farfarer may be forced to bring the summer campaign to an end sooner rather than later.

< Message edited by M60A3TTS -- 6/22/2012 1:32:03 PM >

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Post #: 191

Week 65 - 6/22/2012 2:09:43 PM

M60A3TTS

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WEEK 65 - 10 SEPTEMBER 1942

There was little to report for the previous week. Both sides caught their breath as the warm summer days have slipped away and autumn approaches.

German armor was identified in the vicinity of Vitebsk. In order to guard against another dual pincer move from that area and Vyazma, a pullback to the south around Smolensk was accomplished. Farfarer took the opportunity to seize Smolensk outright.

In the south which has had little publicity of late, Bogdanov's 2nd Tank Army and the Southeastern Front squared off against German forces supported by a panzer corps led by the brilliant Von Manstein west of Dnepropetrovsk. No real terrain is taken as both sides simply take shots at one another.

Currently Soviet manpower reserves sit around 550,000 and a smattering of arms points appear.

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Post #: 192

Week 68 and the end of the Summer '42 Campaign - 6/23/2012 1:07:30 AM

M60A3TTS

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WEEK 68 - 1 OCTOBER 1942

September has turned to October, and this marks the end of the German 1942 Summer Offensive. The figures have been analyzed since their operations began on June 4. They show the Axis at a little over 936,000 casualties and replacements bringing the German ready forces down by nearly 500,000 men. 19,000 guns and 3,100 AFVs were also lost with replacements bringing their ready numbers down 4,000 and 1,100 respectively.

Soviet casualties for the 68 weeks of war virtually doubled over the last 17.
Three million men grew to six million lost. Replacements returned half this number to the ranks, bringing the active Red Army down by 1.5 million men. Artillery losses were an astounding 57,000 pieces, but Soviet war production of 34,000 guns during this time meant that the active number of artillery pieces fell only 23,000. AFV losses reached almost 10,000. The intense production of AFVs during this same period meant that the active army AFV force actually grew by several hundred units over the course of the campaign.

Among unit losses, the count included 124 rifle divisions, 4 rifle corps, 1 tank and 1 cavalry corps.

In the air, Axis aircraft lost due to air combat at the start of the campaign was extremely low, only 400. During the summer campaign, over 900 of their aircraft were knocked out of the skies. Soviet AA units claimed another 700 of their own. Operational losses accounted for 500 more.

The VVS in comparison lost some 2,000 aircraft in air-to-air combat. This meant a win ratio of slightly over 2-1 in favor of the Axis. Flak losses accounted for 500 downed aircraft, in this one instance less than what the enemy lost by comparison. Operational losses accounted for another 1,000 aircraft, twice that of the Luftwaffe.

Ready aircraft numbers were the least changed in the course of the campaign, as compared to the other ground forces. German ready aircraft were only 500 less at the end than when the offensive began, while Soviet ready aircraft increased by 1,000. This leaves a 4:1 advantage in current ready aircraft between the VVS and the Luftwaffe.

In terms of lost territory, all of the area was in the northern part of the country which unfortunately includes Moscow. The loss of the industry at Gorky was significant, including about 20% of T-34 tank production. But the Soviet industrial machine is still capable of meeting the needs of the current force.

In the center and south, the front lines has remained largely stabilized as both sides settled in along their respective sides of the Dnepr.

Soviet production factory losses during the 1942 campaign
Rail 239>187 -22%
Manpower 2871>2640 -8%
Vehicle 90>80 -11%
Heavy Industry 138>123 -11%
Oil, fuel, resources no change
Arms 320>318

The numbers below show the Week 51 stats on the left and week 68 stats on the right.

< Message edited by M60A3TTS -- 6/23/2012 1:11:17 AM >

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RE: Week 68 and the end of the Summer '42 Campaign - 6/23/2012 3:01:12 AM

hfarrish

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Great AAR - can you show some front wide or two split front views so we can get a fuller picture? Also, as always, its better if the screenies show forts and Sov defensive CVs rather than movements (requests, not demands, since posting AARs is a big PITA as it is...).

Is your supply situation improving? Have we definitively chalked it up to too many units or heavy industry loss, or both?

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Post #: 194

RE: Week 68 and the end of the Summer '42 Campaign - 6/23/2012 1:47:40 PM

Peltonx

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Nice game so far another evenly matched game so far.

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RE: Week 68 and the end of the Summer '42 Campaign - 6/23/2012 4:11:00 PM

glvaca

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This is a really interesting supply problem you have and a explanation on the supply workings in the game.
Seems like we might have underestimated the importance of HI afterall!
Thanks!

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RE: Week 68 and the end of the Summer '42 Campaign - 6/23/2012 4:27:04 PM

Flaviusx

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Nah, HI is still not cost effective to rail out. Armaments are the big choke point in Soviet production, even in this game.

What happened here is the Red Army somehow blew up to 8 million+ in 1942 and couldn't be properly supplied. The Axis, weird as it may sound, actually did the Soviets a favor here by whittling it down to a mere 7 million (which is still very big.)

I still think the Sovs have the advantage here, btw. It's their game to lose. With a smaller, more efficient army (but still very large for this time period), 1943 national morale rolling in, and bigger production multipliers, and them already on the Dnepr, they are way ahead. A single strong summer offensive could knock out Romania in 1943 and the German position up north will become very very awkward.

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RE: Week 68 and the end of the Summer '42 Campaign - 6/24/2012 2:17:17 AM

M60A3TTS

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quote:

ORIGINAL: hfarrish

Great AAR - can you show some front wide or two split front views so we can get a fuller picture? Also, as always, its better if the screenies show forts and Sov defensive CVs rather than movements (requests, not demands, since posting AARs is a big PITA as it is...).

Is your supply situation improving? Have we definitively chalked it up to too many units or heavy industry loss, or both?

I gave farfarer the ok to post in here again, so once he does, or elects not to, I'll put a front line map together.
The supply situation has improved. Once mud hits, the supply stocks replenish to a degree as fighting subsides. The inability to supply all these units was a combination of the Red Army size and a weakness in heavy industry. Once we reach 1943, the supply situation should improve more.

One thing of interest happened on Turn 59 when someone in the supply chain routed a couple fronts worth of supplies to the Leningrad Air Command. General Nikolaenko is being investigated by the NKVD for any possible involvement in Black Market activities. After some air regiments were reduced within the command, supplies were returned to the general pool.

As a result of this, the number of long-range bomber regiments have been reduced to no more than three at any bomber division airbase because they draw a lot of supplies.

Week 58

Week 59

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RE: Week 68 and the end of the Summer '42 Campaign - 6/24/2012 8:44:49 PM

Farfarer61

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Nah, HI is still not cost effective to rail out. Armaments are the big choke point in Soviet production, even in this game.

What happened here is the Red Army somehow blew up to 8 million+ in 1942 and couldn't be properly supplied. The Axis, weird as it may sound, actually did the Soviets a favor here by whittling it down to a mere 7 million (which is still very big.)

I still think the Sovs have the advantage here, btw. It's their game to lose. With a smaller, more efficient army (but still very large for this time period), 1943 national morale rolling in, and bigger production multipliers, and them already on the Dnepr, they are way ahead. A single strong summer offensive could knock out Romania in 1943 and the German position up north will become very very awkward.

Well, time to take back all those Iron Crosses then, silly Wehrmacht! :)

I haven't been able to master the Panzer ball or Panzer puncture, so I do the "look for the Ardennes and figure out a target after you're through the woods plan.

The back and forth in the South has been as brutal on AFV as the drives in the North, time to refill the mobile divisions, with everyone who can be spared building railway sidings and AFV ramps. The Tiger tank is coming into action - 20 Heavy Panzers will stem the tide - the Leader says so.

The Red Army winter offensive is coming I presume.

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Post #: 199

WEEK 74 MAP - 6/26/2012 2:11:19 AM

M60A3TTS

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< Message edited by M60A3TTS -- 6/26/2012 2:12:24 AM >

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WEEK 74 - 6/26/2012 2:36:44 AM

M60A3TTS

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WEEK 74 - 12 NOVEMBER 1942

The rains have been replaced by snowfall across the front. The muddy conditions of the last several weeks have left the battle lines in a relatively stable position. But German forces with at least 6 panzer divisions are already attacking the Bryansk Front north of the Pripet marshes. This likely signals the start of a German winter offensive.

A number of the wrecked Soviet armies have been replenished with some 400,000 new recruits.

Southwestern Front arrived and Rodion Malinovsky appointed as its commander. Among the armies of this front: 1st, 2nd and 4th Shock, 4th Tank and the 58th. The 1st Shock and 58th each received four newly formed mechanized corps. These were constituted from the 24 motorized brigades formed earlier in the year, and all of which survived the summer campaign unscathed. 2nd and 4th Shock each have two tank corps and will each receive another two mechanized corps. That will bring the combined strength of the front to 12 mechanized and 8 tank corps.

Manpower reserves continue to hover near the half million mark and for the first time in months, the Soviet arms production pool pushes to over 40,000.

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Post #: 201

WEEK 75 - 7/1/2012 12:02:55 AM

M60A3TTS

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WEEK 75 - 19 NOVEMBER 1942

The makings of two German winter pushes are under way. In the northeast, several mobile divisions are pushing towards Arzamas and Gorky. Farther west, two Soviet divisions of the Bryansk Front are surrounded. Mobile reserves from the STAVKA are being brought up to contain this drive. There are still several panzer and motorized divisions not seen in battle yet, so these may be preparing to reinforce one of the two current attacks or begin a third action somewhere along the front.

Meanwhile, a new formation is being added to Malinovsky's Southwestern Front.

It is scheduled to receive another artillery division and two guards rocket launcher divisions.

< Message edited by M60A3TTS -- 7/1/2012 12:08:07 AM >

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WEEK 76 - 7/1/2012 2:34:29 AM

M60A3TTS

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WEEK 76 - 26 NOVEMBER 1942

The German Gorky-Arzamas Offensive has expanded to at least 7 panzer and 2 motorized divisions. A pocket is formed in the vicinity of Arzamas but is broken by arriving units. The Southwest Front arrives by rail to further reinforce the area.
58th and 1st Shock Armies deploy their mechanized corps with 4th Tank Army in reserve mode.

Additional rifle divisions are in the process of forming.

The arms pool is approaching 100k, along with 650k in manpower reserves.

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Post #: 203

RE: WEEK 76 - 7/1/2012 2:44:41 AM

Peltonx

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Crazy game thats for sure. Very interesting to say the least.

The great things about north is you can evac the hole area at a good time for you and because of supplies and rail heads zero russian operations can happen.

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WEEK 78 - 7/1/2012 11:59:06 PM

M60A3TTS

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WEEK 78 - 10 DECEMBER 1942

In the face of whiteout blizzard conditions, at least 9 panzer divisions and other motorized divisions in support continue to roll towards Kazan and the Urals. The Southwest Front is making attacks to the north to try and slow them.
Recon shows the Germans repairing the rail lines to stay in supply.

Far to the southwest, the German Gomel Offensive has been checked. They still hold some territory gained in the earlier weeks of the attack.

In the region of Dnepropetrovsk, the Red Army offensive has stalled out due to German fortifications, and reserve panzer and motorized units.

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Post #: 205

WEEK 78 OOB and losses - 7/2/2012 12:08:45 AM

M60A3TTS

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OOB and losses

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Post #: 206

WEEK 79 - 7/2/2012 12:43:06 AM

M60A3TTS

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WEEK 79 - 17 DECEMBER 1942

The German blizzard offensive continues on towards Kazan. Red Army rifle brigades are being conscripted from the eastern regions to aid in the defensive effort.

In the Gomel area, the battles are now going back and forth. No real gain from either side.

Despite 318 arms factories in production, the arms pool is bare with over 750,000 men in the manpower pools.

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Post #: 207

WEEK 80 - 7/2/2012 10:42:31 PM

M60A3TTS

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WEEK 80 - 24 DECEMBER 1942

The German blizzard offensive towards Kazan and Kirov continues...

Still no arms and closing in on 800k in the manpower pool.

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Post #: 208

RE: Week 59 Production Figures - 7/5/2012 5:52:28 PM

Peltonx

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Ok I was right and wrong about HVY.

1. The German player can never destory enough hvy like arm to slow HVY production of supplies. Just not possible

BUT

2. Enough hvy can be destoried that not enough supplies are prodused to supply a large army in 42 and 43 during hvy fighting.

Now as far as this game goes manpower being the centeral issue.

farfarer very poor southern offensive during 1941 hurt him allot. Sure he took Moscow, but he left 300ish+ manpower pts in the south which he could have over run a 2nd time in 42. Why your army blow up so fast.

Land wise your in great shape and really not far from Germany in south.

Your in the drivers set, its your game to lose.

Good game.

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Post #: 209

Game Over - 7/7/2012 12:00:14 AM

M60A3TTS

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I lost Kazan and Kirov in blizzard. Based on the degree of frustration I have with the game in its current form, I'm dropping out of this one and WiTE PBEM as a whole. Credit farfarer with the win. With Helio coming back I guess that makes things even.

Thanks for watching.