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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

 
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/9/2013 8:06:55 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		7 - 8 December 1944
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

THREE YEARS SINCE PEARL HARBOR!!!

STATUS: This for me is a major achievement, but the real goals are still out there at a distance. I will update more on the status of the game as we head into 45. I've not been using tracker since the update but I'll try to get another version going and update soon.

THAILAND: Some major battles over Thailand. Sorry in advance for the long posting. I really wanted to give a good idea of what happened, hoping someone can help me out and ofer some thoughts on how to improve on this.

Firstly the sweeps over Allied troops did not go and that left a sudden surprise LR CAP untouched. Our DBs were decimated and many 2E shot down as well. Bad day there. Many still got through and achieved some of the best results against these troops, strangely. Tomorrow we'll need a bit of recovery, but this will all go again in a few days.

On the other side I set a massive LR CAP over the big stack that is bombed daily and they were all waiting there when the first bombing runs came in. NO SWEEPS!!! It was a slaughter, right?

Guess again. In spite of 184 fighters 'intercepting now' against 68 4E and 14 2E there were NO bombers shot down in the first action and only a few in later engagements. These planes include many Randy, Oscar IV and Ki-100 with Ho-5 20mm on the centerline and a bunch of Franks, Georges and Jacks with 20mm guns too. WTF?

The bombing runs are at 15k and the fighters set at 17k, 20k, and only 38 were at 31k. NONE engaged after the bombing run either. What do I have to do!?! Where am I going wrong?

In the second engagement there were 200+ fighters, most 'intercepting now' and only 43 4E and 19 2E, and we shot down 3 planes???

On the day we lose 273 planes to the Allied losses of 73, mostly 2E bombers with only about 15 4E shot down, and some of those to flak. I also end up losing as many if not more fighters shot down by the defensive fire of the 2E and 4E. Not happy about it, but this has been happening for virtually the entire game, so I'm beginning to think it's just me doing something wrong.

I'm happy to post more settings if anyone wants to help figure it out or point out any possibly better settings. I'm at a loss right now and willing to listen to anything.

LUZON: Flew some sweeps with Franks in the PI and took out a nice chunk of P-47s. Looks like about 25-30 on the day for an equal number of Franks. He won't likely use these at 15k from now on.

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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR December 7, 44
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Morning Air attack on Provisionl Tank Brigade, at 61,60 , near Udon Thani

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 15 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B7A2 Grace x 59
D4Y1 Judy x 36
D4Y4 Judy x 40

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 19
P-38L Lightning x 24
F4U-1A Corsair x 34

Japanese aircraft losses
B7A2 Grace: 8 destroyed, 4 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 11 destroyed
D4Y4 Judy: 9 destroyed

No Allied losses

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 23 (15 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
13 x D4Y4 Judy releasing from 2000'
Ground Attack: 1 x 800 kg GP Bomb
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Provisionl Tank Brigade, at 61,60 , near Udon Thani

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 7 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B7A2 Grace x 50
D4Y4 Judy x 43

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 18
P-38L Lightning x 24
F4U-1A Corsair x 34

Japanese aircraft losses
B7A2 Grace: 15 destroyed, 4 damaged
D4Y4 Judy: 26 destroyed

No Allied losses

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 12 (10 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
13 x D4Y4 Judy releasing from 3000' *
Ground Attack: 1 x 500 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 2nd Division, at 55,59 , near Tavoy

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 8
J2M3 Jack x 27
J2M5 Jack x 20
N1K1-J George x 25
N1K2-J George x 10
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 18
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 16
Ki-84a Frank x 30
Ki-100-I Tony x 31
Ki-102b Randy x 10

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 18
Liberator GR.VI x 10
B-17E Fortress x 5
B-24D1 Liberator x 5
B-24J Liberator x 25
B-25D1 Mitchell x 6
B-25H Mitchell x 8
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
J2M5 Jack: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 7 damaged
Liberator GR.VI: 1 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 2 damaged
B-24D1 Liberator: 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 8 damaged
B-25D1 Mitchell: 3 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 1 damaged
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 2 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x PB4Y-1 Liberator bombing from 15000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
S-305 Hikotai with N1K1-J George (11 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(4 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
11 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 20000
Raid is overhead
S-901 Hikotai with A7M2 Sam (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(5 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 31000
Raid is overhead
S-316 Hikotai with N1K2-J George (10 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(6 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
10 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 20000
Raid is overhead
S-309 Hikotai with J2M3 Jack (11 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(7 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
11 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 20000
Raid is overhead
S-402 Hikotai with N1K1-J George (14 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(7 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
14 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 20000
Raid is overhead
S-315 Hikotai with J2M5 Jack (20 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(13 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
20 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 20000
Raid is overhead
S-317 Hikotai with J2M3 Jack (16 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(10 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
16 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 20000
Raid is overhead
21st Sentai with Ki-102b Randy (10 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(7 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
10 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 17000
Raid is overhead
30th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (18 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(11 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
18 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 31000
Raid is overhead
53rd Sentai with Ki-45 KAIa Nick (16 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(10 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
16 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 17000
Raid is overhead
64th Sentai with Ki-43-IV Oscar (18 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(9 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
18 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 20000
Raid is overhead
200th Sentai with Ki-100-I Tony (31 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(15 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
31 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 20000
Raid is overhead
87th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (12 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(3 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
12 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 31000
Raid is overhead

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 2nd Division, at 55,59 , near Tavoy

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 8
J2M3 Jack x 26
J2M5 Jack x 19
N1K1-J George x 31
N1K2-J George x 10
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 19
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 19
Ki-84a Frank x 35
Ki-100-I Tony x 35
Ki-102b Randy x 10

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 6
B-17F Fortress x 5
B-24D1 Liberator x 3
B-24J Liberator x 29
B-25H Mitchell x 9
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 10

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged
B-24D1 Liberator: 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed, 13 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 1 damaged
PBJ-1D Mitchell: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
51 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x PBJ-1D Mitchell bombing from 15000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
200th Sentai with Ki-100-I Tony (34 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(6 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
34 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 14 minutes
S-317 Hikotai with J2M3 Jack (17 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
17 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 20000
Raid is overhead
53rd Sentai with Ki-45 KAIa Nick (18 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(3 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
18 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 17000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 17000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 13 minutes
87th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (18 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(6 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
18 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 31000
Raid is overhead
S-305 Hikotai with N1K1-J George (14 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(3 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
14 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 20000
Raid is overhead
S-402 Hikotai with N1K1-J George (17 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(3 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
17 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 20000
Raid is overhead
64th Sentai with Ki-43-IV Oscar (11 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(6 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
11 plane(s) intercepting now.
8 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 68 minutes
S-901 Hikotai with A7M2 Sam (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 31000
Raid is overhead
S-316 Hikotai with N1K2-J George (10 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
10 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 20000
Raid is overhead
S-309 Hikotai with J2M3 Jack (3 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
3 plane(s) intercepting now.
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters to 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 57 minutes
S-315 Hikotai with J2M5 Jack (13 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
13 plane(s) intercepting now.
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters to 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 45 minutes
21st Sentai with Ki-102b Randy (10 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
10 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 17000
Raid is overhead
30th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (15 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
15 plane(s) intercepting now.
2 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters to 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 49 minutes

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 39th Division, at 55,59 , near Tavoy

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 7
J2M3 Jack x 30
J2M5 Jack x 19
N1K1-J George x 30
N1K2-J George x 9
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 19
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 13
Ki-84a Frank x 35
Ki-100-I Tony x 36
Ki-102b Randy x 10

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 14
B-25H Mitchell x 7
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 24
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 11

Japanese aircraft losses
J2M3 Jack: 1 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 14 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 1 damaged
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 3 destroyed, 12 damaged
PBJ-1D Mitchell: 2 destroyed, 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
19 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x PB4Y-1 Liberator bombing from 15000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
87th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (21 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(3 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
21 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 31000
Raid is overhead
S-402 Hikotai with N1K1-J George (12 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(2 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
12 plane(s) intercepting now.
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 146 minutes
S-305 Hikotai with N1K1-J George (10 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(3 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
10 plane(s) intercepting now.
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 24 minutes
S-309 Hikotai with J2M3 Jack (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(3 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
4 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 53 minutes
S-317 Hikotai with J2M3 Jack (17 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(3 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
17 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 10 minutes
200th Sentai with Ki-100-I Tony (32 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(3 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
32 plane(s) intercepting now.
4 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 122 minutes
S-901 Hikotai with A7M2 Sam (7 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 31000
Raid is overhead
S-316 Hikotai with N1K2-J George (6 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
6 plane(s) intercepting now.
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters to 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 18 minutes
S-315 Hikotai with J2M5 Jack (13 airborne, 0 on standby, 6 scrambling)
13 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters to 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 49 minutes
21st Sentai with Ki-102b Randy (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
2 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 17000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 17000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 40 minutes
30th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (12 airborne, 0 on standby, 2 scrambling)
12 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters to 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 32 minutes
53rd Sentai with Ki-45 KAIa Nick (7 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) intercepting now.
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 17000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 17000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 152 minutes
64th Sentai with Ki-43-IV Oscar (11 airborne, 0 on standby, 8 scrambling)
11 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 41 minutes

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 33rd Division, at 55,59 , near Tavoy

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 7
J2M3 Jack x 24
J2M5 Jack x 19
N1K1-J George x 24
N1K2-J George x 5
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 19
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 11
Ki-84a Frank x 26
Ki-100-I Tony x 28
Ki-102b Randy x 9

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 19
B-24J Liberator x 7
B-24D1 Liberator x 4
B-24J Liberator x 6

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 1 destroyed, 11 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 4 damaged
B-24D1 Liberator: 2 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
12 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 15000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 3rd Tank Division, at 55,59 , near Tavoy

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 6
J2M3 Jack x 24
J2M5 Jack x 18
N1K1-J George x 24
N1K2-J George x 4
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 17
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 9
Ki-84a Frank x 22
Ki-100-I Tony x 24
Ki-102b Randy x 8

Allied aircraft
Wellington B.X x 7
B-24J Liberator x 17
B-25D1 Mitchell x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-102b Randy: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Wellington B.X: 2 destroyed, 2 damaged
Wellington B.X: 1 destroyed by flak
B-24J Liberator: 2 destroyed, 10 damaged
B-25D1 Mitchell: 1 damaged
B-25D1 Mitchell: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
20 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x Wellington B.X bombing from 15000 feet
Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 5th Division, at 55,59 , near Tavoy

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 6
J2M3 Jack x 19
J2M5 Jack x 17
N1K1-J George x 21
N1K2-J George x 2
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 13
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 9
Ki-84a Frank x 17
Ki-100-I Tony x 18
Ki-102b Randy x 7

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.III x 3
Liberator B.VI x 7
Wellington B.X x 7
B-25H Mitchell x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
J2M3 Jack: 2 destroyed
N1K1-J George: 2 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 2 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 2 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 1 destroyed More fighters lost than bombers, even when they're outnumbered 5:1.

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.III: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
Liberator B.VI: 1 destroyed, 5 damaged
Wellington B.X: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 3 destroyed, 10 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x Wellington B.X bombing from 15000 feet
Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

Banzai! - Banno K. in a N1K1-J George rams a B-25H Mitchell for the Emperor
Banzai! - Kimura R. in a Ki-84a Frank rams a B-25H Mitchell for the Emperor Of course these are probably great pilots, but at this point I'll take it.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 79th Brigade, at 55,59 , near Tavoy

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 5
J2M3 Jack x 15
J2M5 Jack x 17
N1K1-J George x 13
N1K2-J George x 2
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 7
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 8
Ki-84a Frank x 7
Ki-100-I Tony x 12
Ki-102b Randy x 5

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 13

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 4 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
7 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 15000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 2nd Guards Division, at 55,59 , near Tavoy

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 4
J2M3 Jack x 15
J2M5 Jack x 17
N1K1-J George x 12
N1K2-J George x 2
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 7
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 7
Ki-84a Frank x 7
Ki-100-I Tony x 10
Ki-102b Randy x 4

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 12

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 3 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
21 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 15000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 2nd Tank Division, at 55,59 , near Tavoy

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 16 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 2
J2M3 Jack x 14
J2M5 Jack x 17
N1K1-J George x 12
N1K2-J George x 2
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 7
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 7
Ki-84a Frank x 7
Ki-100-I Tony x 8
Ki-102b Randy x 4

Allied aircraft
B-25C Mitchell x 7

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-25C Mitchell: 3 destroyed, 2 damaged So they have really been here the entire time, still have ammo, and the earlier lack of results become even more hard to justify!

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x B-25C Mitchell bombing from 15000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 24th Ind.Mixed Brigade, at 55,59 , near Tavoy

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M3 Jack x 14
J2M5 Jack x 17
N1K1-J George x 9
N1K2-J George x 2
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 3
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 6
Ki-84a Frank x 5
Ki-100-I Tony x 7
Ki-102b Randy x 2

Allied aircraft
B-24D Liberator x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24D Liberator: 2 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x B-24D Liberator bombing from 15000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 2nd Area Army, at 55,59 , near Tavoy

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 15 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M3 Jack x 14
J2M5 Jack x 16
N1K1-J George x 7
N1K2-J George x 2
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 3
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 6
Ki-84a Frank x 5
Ki-100-I Tony x 7
Ki-102b Randy x 2

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 8

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 4 damaged By now most intercept times are getting longer, so I can see why these guys are not engaged, but earlier that was not at all the case.

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 15000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 22nd Tank Regiment, at 55,59 , near Tavoy

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M3 Jack x 6
J2M5 Jack x 12
N1K1-J George x 5
N1K2-J George x 1
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 2
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 4
Ki-84a Frank x 5
Ki-100-I Tony x 4
Ki-102b Randy x 2

Allied aircraft
B-25C Mitchell x 9

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-25C Mitchell: 2 destroyed, 1 damaged Yet, they are still apparently around and will take these poor bastards out! Too bad they don't have 8 fixed forward 50 cal. to defined themselves with like the B-25 D1.

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x B-25C Mitchell bombing from 15000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

There are still 4-5 more 'intercepts' but I'll spare you (and me) the pain.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR December 8, 44
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Afternoon Air attack on Calapan , at 78,79

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 37 NM, estimated altitude 44,270 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84r Frank x 36

Allied aircraft
P-38L Lightning x 4

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
P-38L Lightning: 2 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
36 x Ki-84r Frank sweeping at 38270 feet

CAP engaged:
311th FG/530th FS with P-38L Lightning (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(4 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 4 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 2 minutes



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Boac , at 80,80

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 49 NM, estimated altitude 42,270 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84r Frank x 49

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 80

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84r Frank: 7 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 4 destroyed

CAP engaged:
8th FG/35th FS with P-47D25 Thunderbolt (16 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(16 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
16 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 15000
Raid is overhead
347th FG/67th FS with P-47D25 Thunderbolt (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(16 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 16 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 5 minutes
318th FG/73rd FS with P-47D25 Thunderbolt (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(16 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 16 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 3 minutes
18th FG/78th FS with P-47D25 Thunderbolt (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(16 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 16 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 3 minutes
8th FG/80th FS with P-47D25 Thunderbolt (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(16 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 16 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 1 minutes


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Boac , at 80,80

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 42,270 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84r Frank x 23

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 50

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84r Frank: 5 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 3 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reinforcements: This gives me about 10 subs left now! Maybe enough to harass one invasion attempt.

MGB G-1015 arrives at Sapporo
18th Army arrives at Tokyo
5th Air Division arrives at Tokyo
89th Field AA Battalion arrives at Tokyo
30th Engineer Regiment arrives at Tokyo
3rd Naval Construction Battalion arrives at Tokyo
24th Field AF Construction Battalion arrives at Tokyo
SS I-53 arrives at Okayama
SS I-55 arrives at Nagasaki/Sasebo

Losses: none.

Ships Sunk:

APD Humphreys is reported to have been sunk near Sarmi on May 22, 1944
APD Goldsborough is reported to have been sunk near Sarmi on May 23, 1944
LCT-170 is reported to have been sunk near Sorong on Jul 23, 1944
Previous report of sinking of SS Pomfret incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

When you see this you think carnage, right? Nope. "air to air combat done!"

That about sums things up.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 10/9/2013 8:14:47 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2281
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/9/2013 10:27:01 PM   
LoBaron


Posts: 4776
Joined: 1/26/2003
From: Vienna, Austria
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes
...


Problem is you got no EW in that hex. Not a chance to maximize attacks in that situation and with this short detection times.

Still, I would not underestimate the strain it puts on the Allied bomber forces. Admittedly it is late ´44 so the replacement rates are good, but still you are probably causing more losses than you imagine. From own experience a notable percentage of the bombers damage will end as an op loss.

Also look at the relation between the bombing effort and the damage done. In your situation I would regard this as a major success in the air battle, both in protecting your troops and in keeping the Allied air in check.

_____________________________


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Post #: 2282
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/9/2013 10:58:56 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes
...


Problem is you got no EW in that hex. Not a chance to maximize attacks in that situation and with this short detection times.

Still, I would not underestimate the strain it puts on the Allied bomber forces. Admittedly it is late ´44 so the replacement rates are good, but still you are probably causing more losses than you imagine. From own experience a notable percentage of the bombers damage will end as an op loss.

Also look at the relation between the bombing effort and the damage done. In your situation I would regard this as a major success in the air battle, both in protecting your troops and in keeping the Allied air in check.


Thanks for the comments. Still I'm frustrated. This is not a success at all, and even though some Allied planes are lost, this has been the norm throughout the game. When I jump him it never quite works out to cause BIG losses that would shut down the bombing for a bit. These particular troops are likely lost anyway, so I'm actually quite pleased he's bombing them daily and setting up this opportunity, but if I can't take advantage, it doesn't matter.

Also, if my planes aren't getting there in time how do I end up losing about 35 fighters in these engagements?

I see the detection times, but the intercept times are 0 for the first several engagements. Doesn't this mean the fighters are right there, ready? There is not even a time to intercept listed.

Even with short intercept times, fighters did engage before the bombing run, so why did they not engage after the first two runs with those big groups? Doesn't make any sense, since they did later sometimes.

The later detection times are similar as well but more fighters engage and more bombers are shot down, so that also doesn't seem to follow the logic of this. I really do want to understand but this seems a small part of the whole equation, and it's not a consistently similar set of engagements. Sometimes the fighters get to the bombers after the bombing, sometimes not, and the engagement times are not that different.

This later package for example has a short time to target as well, and the interception times are infinitely longer, but now with a much smaller CAP of 156 planes (64 intercepting now against 30 bombers) at least 4 bombers are shot down as opposed to NONE in the first above and in quite a few other parcels.

What I'm really looking for here is some way to improve the days result. How can I do this?

ONE IDEA:

Would turning on my radar equipped arty units (which are in reserve mode now) potentially help detect the incoming strikes, thus increasing the 'time to target' detection?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 3rd Tank Division, at 55,59 , near Tavoy

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 6
J2M3 Jack x 24
J2M5 Jack x 18
N1K1-J George x 24
N1K2-J George x 4
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 17
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 9
Ki-84a Frank x 22
Ki-100-I Tony x 24
Ki-102b Randy x 8

Allied aircraft
Wellington B.X x 7
B-24J Liberator x 17
B-25D1 Mitchell x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-102b Randy: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Wellington B.X: 2 destroyed, 2 damaged
Wellington B.X: 1 destroyed by flak
B-24J Liberator: 2 destroyed, 10 damaged
B-25D1 Mitchell: 1 damaged
B-25D1 Mitchell: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
20 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x Wellington B.X bombing from 15000 feet
Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
S-305 Hikotai with N1K1-J George (7 airborne, 0 on standby, 1 scrambling)
(2 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
7 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 36 minutes
200th Sentai with Ki-100-I Tony (5 airborne, 0 on standby, 12 scrambling)
(3 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
5 plane(s) intercepting now.
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 103 minutes
S-901 Hikotai with A7M2 Sam (3 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
3 plane(s) intercepting now.
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 31000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 25 minutes
S-316 Hikotai with N1K2-J George (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters to 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 100 minutes
S-309 Hikotai with J2M3 Jack (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 4 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 42 minutes
S-402 Hikotai with N1K1-J George (10 airborne, 0 on standby, 5 scrambling)
10 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 37 minutes
S-315 Hikotai with J2M5 Jack (3 airborne, 0 on standby, 6 scrambling)
3 plane(s) intercepting now.
9 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 168 minutes
S-317 Hikotai with J2M3 Jack (10 airborne, 0 on standby, 5 scrambling)
10 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 47 minutes
21st Sentai with Ki-102b Randy (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 4 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 17000 , scrambling fighters to 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 43 minutes
30th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 7 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters to 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 39 minutes
53rd Sentai with Ki-45 KAIa Nick (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 6 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
2 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 17000 , scrambling fighters to 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 67 minutes
64th Sentai with Ki-43-IV Oscar (5 airborne, 0 on standby, 11 scrambling)
5 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 41 minutes
87th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 3 scrambling)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 31000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 40 minutes

< Message edited by obvert -- 10/9/2013 11:05:04 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to LoBaron)
Post #: 2283
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/9/2013 11:08:53 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		Erik,

I think LoBaron has it right with the low detection time. I've often found a discrepancy with "fighters engaging now" and what actually appear in the actual combat. I've also noticed that the number of aircraft listed in the combat report don't always get into the fight. It seems that represents the total number available to intercept, but whether detection time actually permits that number is the question. It also didn't help to not get a post air-attack phase to allow the late comers to add their weight to the battle.

I really tried to understand what happens during air combat, but gave up a long time ago. LoBaron seems to have a good handle on things and I try to emulate what he says but with little success unfortunately.

Note: I think radar is key, you have to get that early warning to get aircraft in numbers for that initial attack, however, I've often gotten tons of warning time and CAP still arrives in driblets more often than not too. I'm like you, often frustrated.



< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 10/9/2013 11:16:09 PM >

_____________________________

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Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to LoBaron)
Post #: 2284
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/9/2013 11:16:01 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Erik,

I think LoBaron has it right with the low detection time. I've often found a discrepancy with "fighters engaging now" and what actually appear in the actual combat. I've also noticed that the number of aircraft listed in the combat report don't always get into the fight. It seems that represents the total number available to intercept, but whether detection time actually permits that number is the question. It also didn't help to not get a post air-attack phase to allow the late comers to add their weight to the battle.

I really tried to understand what happens during air combat, but gave up a long time ago. LoBaron seems to have a good handle on things and I try to emulate what he says but with little success unfortunately.




Hey Joseph. I guess this could again be a situation where I'm expecting the messages in game to be giving me accurate info and they are not. If it's not intercepting now, why is the message there and why doesn't it say 'Time for all group planes to reach interception is 47 minutes?'

Why do they sometimes engage after the bombing run and not other times, especially if they did engage before the run and then were there for another package later? It's not like they ran out of gas or ammo.

Why did similar situations later in the battle with short detection times have different results with more bombers shot down?



_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 2285
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/9/2013 11:22:33 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Hey Joseph. I guess this could again be a situation where I'm expecting the messages in game to be giving me accurate info and they are not. If it's not intercepting now, why is the message there and why doesn't it say 'Time for all group planes to reach interception is 47 minutes?'

Why do they sometimes engage after the bombing run and not other times, especially if they did engage before the run and then were there for another package later? It's not like they ran out of gas or ammo.

Why did similar situations later in the battle with short detection times have different results with more bombers shot down?


I think "intercepting now" also means diving or climbing time to reach the target. For example, your aircraft at 31k that are airborne still need time to get down to the bombers altitude before they actually fire, so I think that is why some arrive late.

Some of the better results you see later could be that those aircraft are now already at the proper height to intercept, so more passes rather than time lost gaining/losing altitude than against the earlier raids? That's my guess anyway.


< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 10/9/2013 11:23:15 PM >

_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2286
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/9/2013 11:27:32 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Hey Joseph. I guess this could again be a situation where I'm expecting the messages in game to be giving me accurate info and they are not. If it's not intercepting now, why is the message there and why doesn't it say 'Time for all group planes to reach interception is 47 minutes?'

Why do they sometimes engage after the bombing run and not other times, especially if they did engage before the run and then were there for another package later? It's not like they ran out of gas or ammo.

Why did similar situations later in the battle with short detection times have different results with more bombers shot down?


I think "intercepting now" also means diving or climbing time to reach the target. For example, your aircraft at 31k that are airborne still need time to get down to the bombers altitude before they actually fire, so I think that is why some arrive late.

Some of the better results you see later could be that those aircraft are now already at the proper height to intercept, so more passes rather than time lost gaining/losing altitude than against the earlier raids? That's my guess anyway.



Well that would make sense except that for the second battle combat the planes should be right there, but are not effective and have a very short period of battle with no after strike portion. Later it's very sporadic as well, with some battles getting long engagements and others almost none.

_____________________________

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Post #: 2287
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/9/2013 11:51:56 PM   
LoBaron


Posts: 4776
Joined: 1/26/2003
From: Vienna, Austria
Status: offline 		SqzMyLemon sums up part of it pretty nicely.

Two additional things:

The shorter the detection time, the more erratic and unpredictable the engagement. Asking for an explanation for every single encounter result is like asking why you rolled a dice this time for a 5 and next time for a 1. 6 minutes might be barely enough to spot a raid before they drop on target, and some fighters may attack a straggler, but thats not even remotely enough time for a CAP formation to prepare for a coordinated attack run.

Viewing separate replays of the same bombing attack as independent from each other, and only sequencially related to each other (e.g. fighters damaged in the "first" replay might be unavailable in the "follow up" battles), is not correct. The fights are not all happening in sequence, they might as well happen in parallel, only on different ends if a formation. The sequential display of events is a limitation of the replay mode. What you see "first" might well be influenced by a "later" combat (also, but not exclusively because they might not happen "first" or "later"). Keep that in mind when talking about the first, second, or third battle, and use terms like "later" in this context.

Finally: Yes radar can always improve the situation, although it usually is less effective when using LRCAP. I am not completely sure if it works in your specific situation but I would definitely give it a try.



_____________________________


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Post #: 2288
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/10/2013 1:25:30 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

SqzMyLemon sums up part of it pretty nicely.

Two additional things:

The shorter the detection time, the more erratic and unpredictable the engagement. Asking for an explanation for every single encounter result is like asking why you rolled a dice this time for a 5 and next time for a 1. 6 minutes might be barely enough to spot a raid before they drop on target, and some fighters may attack a straggler, but thats not even remotely enough time for a CAP formation to prepare for a coordinated attack run.

Viewing separate replays of the same bombing attack as independent from each other, and only sequencially related to each other (e.g. fighters damaged in the "first" replay might be unavailable in the "follow up" battles), is not correct. The fights are not all happening in sequence, they might as well happen in parallel, only on different ends if a formation. The sequential display of events is a limitation of the replay mode. What you see "first" might well be influenced by a "later" combat (also, but not exclusively because they might not happen "first" or "later"). Keep that in mind when talking about the first, second, or third battle, and use terms like "later" in this context.

Finally: Yes radar can always improve the situation, although it usually is less effective when using LRCAP. I am not completely sure if it works in your specific situation but I would definitely give it a try.




How can the different battles I see in sequence be happening in parallel if the same pilots are in each different battle? On what information to you base this assumption?

The CAP is smaller throughout the different battles, and if many planes are shot down, there are many fewer int the next battle in sequence. How is this then parallel?

Furthermore I've had CAP do very well against sweeps with only 6-8 minutes detection. Sure, not always, but looking back through a few recently I noticed this. So the detection time cannot always be the determining factor.

The reason your explanation doesn't make complete sense to me is that it doesn't at all account for the after strike 'phase' which is sometimes included and other times not. Is this simply a dice roll? How does that make any sense, since sometimes fighters that show up late hit the bombers hard after the bombing, and other times they don't at all? I've never used the dice roll 'explanation' as I think it's lazy. Good players figure it out more often than not, so what is different?

My aim is to figure out how to make this work better. Any suggestions?

< Message edited by obvert -- 10/10/2013 1:27:22 AM >

_____________________________

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Post #: 2289
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/10/2013 8:39:02 AM   
LoBaron


Posts: 4776
Joined: 1/26/2003
From: Vienna, Austria
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

SqzMyLemon sums up part of it pretty nicely.

Two additional things:

The shorter the detection time, the more erratic and unpredictable the engagement. Asking for an explanation for every single encounter result is like asking why you rolled a dice this time for a 5 and next time for a 1. 6 minutes might be barely enough to spot a raid before they drop on target, and some fighters may attack a straggler, but thats not even remotely enough time for a CAP formation to prepare for a coordinated attack run.

Viewing separate replays of the same bombing attack as independent from each other, and only sequencially related to each other (e.g. fighters damaged in the "first" replay might be unavailable in the "follow up" battles), is not correct. The fights are not all happening in sequence, they might as well happen in parallel, only on different ends if a formation. The sequential display of events is a limitation of the replay mode. What you see "first" might well be influenced by a "later" combat (also, but not exclusively because they might not happen "first" or "later"). Keep that in mind when talking about the first, second, or third battle, and use terms like "later" in this context.

Finally: Yes radar can always improve the situation, although it usually is less effective when using LRCAP. I am not completely sure if it works in your specific situation but I would definitely give it a try.




How can the different battles I see in sequence be happening in parallel if the same pilots are in each different battle?


Why do you think this is impossible? Air battles are fast paced in the engagement itself, but take time between engagements. A combat replay shows part of an air battle, the messages convey to separate engagements.
That engagements from two different combat replays of the same air battle can overlap is not something I find surprizing.

quote:

On what information to you base this assumption?


On the fact that "follow up" combat replays have a noticeable effect on the "first" replay. If a high number of combat replays happen "after" the "first", this on average tends to deteriorate the effectiveness of the first engagement. The simplest explanation for this is that already at this point the defender´s forces get scattered over different engagements in a similar way as the attackers´forces are.

quote:

The CAP is smaller throughout the different battles, and if many planes are shot down, there are many fewer int the next battle in sequence. How is this then parallel?


Because, obviously, there is a sequence. It is just not as clear cut as many players think it is.

quote:

Furthermore I've had CAP do very well against sweeps with only 6-8 minutes detection. Sure, not always, but looking back through a few recently I noticed this. So the detection time cannot always be the determining factor.


I never said it is THE determining factor. But it is a factor guiding you out of random country.

The shorter the detection time, the less tactical influence your initial setup has on the battle. Factors like who spots whom first, how many planes are in the group detecting, what is the skill factor of the pilots involved, are those 2 pilots in contact highly fatigued because they already fought through several engagements and the others fighters did not make contact at all,....

See? Random. Whether you like it or not this is one of the very basic elements of good ol´s Gary Grisby´s magic machine. And actually it often comes down to a pretty impressive reflection of reality.

quote:

The reason your explanation doesn't make complete sense to me is that it doesn't at all account for the after strike 'phase' which is sometimes included and other times not. Is this simply a dice roll? How does that make any sense, since sometimes fighters that show up late hit the bombers hard after the bombing, and other times they don't at all?


The "after strike" phase is for sure triggered by certain events. By planes in contact after the bombing run. By pilot fatigue. By relative A/C speeds, by weather,...and also the dice. Let me add a virtual shrug to that.

quote:

I've never used the dice roll 'explanation' as I think it's lazy. Good players figure it out more often than not, so what is different?


Reminds me of a quote by a very famous person: "Gott würfelt nicht!" (God does not throw the dice). I assume as a teacher you know that guy.

I am aware that it is a matter of taste, but I am a huge fan of GG´s randomness fetish. It presents you a limit to what point you can influence events, and you to provide the framework in which those random events happen. Through your actions you can reduce the random element to a neglectable factor, or expand it to be the dominating factor.

quote:


My aim is to figure out how to make this work better. Any suggestions?


You mean besides getting EW up and running?

Take a step away from the details of each battle and look at the overall picture.
From what I see our fighters where up against a 3 digit number of heavy bombers with mediums mixed in for flavor. You are expecting to practically stop those attacks with LRCAP only without early warning. An option would be to reevaluate your expectations.

In an attempt to improve their setup in a very specific situation, players often lose the grasp for the overall situation and forget that they are related. Part of what distinguishes good from bad players is that good players rarely forget this relation. If they run out of ideas how to change the specific situation (or better: before they run out of ideas), they modify the overall situation. The lose less time to claw at something they cannot break.

Finally, I am aware that this is difficult to accept, but at this stage of war you need to accept that what you can do is annoy. You must annoy in order to delay. Stay unpredictable, do not unnccesarily concentrate forces that then can easily be destroyed, stay mobile, do a lot of micromanagement, and attrit, attrit, attrit. You will not stop your opponent, and your chances of scoring a major victories like in the past now have become very slim, but you can slow him down.

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Post #: 2290
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/10/2013 9:04:17 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		Thanks Lobaron. That is as good a response as I can hope for.

I push for more because I really do want to understand this as deeply as possible. I tend to agree with almost everything you say here, actually. I do agree the 'sequence' of events is clearly present but subject to a differing perception of what that actually entails. I like the thought that the 'first' engagement is already limited by fighters breaking off to deal with other packets elsewhere. That is something I can grasp. Thank you.

While I'm not expecting to really stop air strikes, I do wish I could inflict serious blows to the air forces, and massed LR CAP is really the only way to do that if he decides not to come for my bigger bases. I just wish I could test this more, and see how to improve it, but alas I don't have the time now.

As for the quote, he might be my favorite, along with Churchill. Another one;

"The important thing is not to stop questioning; curiosity has its own reason for existing."



_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to LoBaron)
Post #: 2291
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/10/2013 10:56:40 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		9 - 10 December 1944
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SUBS: Another xAKL lost and an E sunk during ASW duties. The Haddo is forced to surface and then gunned down though, which is nice. Fully confirmed. I know it's late and these small events don't matter so awfully much anymore, but they're still satisfying.

CHINA/INDOCHINA: Many troops are now moving back from Saigon to the Hanoi/Haiphong region and are being shipped out to Formosa and other locations. It's hard to give up so much so quickly, but it's not going to affect much in the long run, as he will over-run it all soon enough. Since Bangkok is difficult to supply now I'll simply have to move back or face losing all to another deep invasion along this coast or father back even.

STAT BOMBING: One set of B-29s hits Manila again. Another hits Tokyo!!! I'll detail that in another post as it's pretty significant.

THAILAND: More bombing of troops by both sides. I change it up every turn to try to throw off his ability to drop a big LR CAP over his tanks. My strikes are pin-****s, but thy are hitting a bit, so that's good.

PI: I lose a bunch of Frank 'a' as they try to sweep LR CAP on Luzon but hit a wall of high-flying Hellcats. This is precisely the reason the second best maneuver band HR is good for this game right now. Without it I can't sweep at all, and virtually every Allied plane could get above mine. These were not bad groups, but filled with 65-80 exp pilots, and they should do better than 1:10 without the altitude advantage. This game is so extreme that getting jumped often means losing 25-30% of the planes, and that is unsustainable for either side. limiting which planes can do this is best for both. Right now it's about equal since the Allies get the highest band with the P-47, over any other plane, and a good advantage with the Hellcat over all but the Frank 'r' and Randy 'a.' Soon even his Spits will be up there over 31k, and that will be painful.

Also, a set of Allied DDs hit mines at Bataan. Interesting. I wonder of this was a bombardment test? Now that the mines are 'known' I'll have to add more to make them work again. Mini subs try for the McCalla, the worst off it looks like, but expend a bunch of TTs to no effect. nice that I can send it all back to Manila to reload.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR December 9, 44
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Time Surface Combat, near Victoria Point at 51,66, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
MTB G-224, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
MTB G-226, Shell hits 1, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Stewart
DD Quiberon
DD Quickmatch
DD Arunta
DD Isaac Sweers
DD Relentless
DD Roebuck

Reduced sighting due to 28% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 28% moonlight: 3,000 yards
Range closes to 22,000 yards...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 233 encounters mine field at Bataan (78,77)

Allied Ships
DD Carmick, Mine hits 1, on fire
DD Hobby, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Frazier, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD McCalla, Mine hits 1, heavy damage


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Submarine attack near Bataan at 78,77

Japanese Ships
SSX Ha-D-106

Allied Ships
DD McCalla, heavy damage

DD McCalla is sighted by SSX Ha-D-106
SSX Ha-D-106 launches 2 torpedoes at DD McCalla

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Manila , at 79,77

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 77 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah x 7

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 17

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 14 damaged

Manpower hits 4
Fires 2515

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x B-29-1 Superfort bombing from 12000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Manila , at 79,77

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 47 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 5

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 10
Fires 19633

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x B-29-1 Superfort bombing from 12000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Hong Kong at 75,61

Japanese Ships
xAKL Tainichi Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
SC CHa-41

Allied Ships
SS Tunny, hits 1

Japanese ground losses:
4 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

SS Tunny launches 2 torpedoes at xAKL Tainichi Maru
Tunny bottoming out ....
SC CHa-41 attacking submerged sub ....
SC CHa-41 is out of ASW ammo
SC CHa-41 fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

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ASW attack near Miyako-jima at 92,67

Japanese Ships
E No.43
E No.21
E No.61
E No.51

Allied Ships
SS Bonefish, hits 2

SS Bonefish launches 2 torpedoes at E No.43
Bonefish diving deep ....
E No.61 fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Tourane at 69,68

Japanese Ships
E Hirado, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
E Shonan

Allied Ships
SS Roncador

SS Roncador launches 2 torpedoes at E Hirado
Roncador diving deep ....
E Shonan fails to find sub, continues to search...
E Shonan fails to find sub, continues to search...
E Shonan fails to find sub, continues to search...
E Shonan fails to find sub, continues to search...
E Shonan fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Naha at 93,68

Japanese Ships
E No.51
E No.21
E No.61
E No.43

Allied Ships
SS Haddo, hits 22, and is sunk

SS Haddo launches 2 torpedoes at E No.51
E No.61 attacking submerged sub ....
SS Haddo forced to surface!
E No.43 firing on surfaced sub ....
Sub slips beneath the waves

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Sibuyan , at 80,82

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 32 NM, estimated altitude 41,270 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84r Frank x 36

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 5

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
34 x Ki-84r Frank sweeping at 38270 feet

CAP engaged:
VMF-122 with F4U-1D Corsair (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(16 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 5 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000
Raid is overhead

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Atimonan , at 80,79

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 25 NM, estimated altitude 33,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84a Frank x 49

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 67
F6F-5 Hellcat x 94

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84a Frank: 11 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
17 x Ki-84a Frank sweeping at 31000 feet

CAP engaged:
VF-2 with F4U-1D Corsair (0 airborne, 22 on standby, 0 scrambling)
11 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 28000 and 38000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 26 minutes
VF-3 with F6F-5 Hellcat (0 airborne, 23 on standby, 0 scrambling)
11 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 37000 , scrambling fighters between 27000 and 37000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 25 minutes
VF-6 with F6F-5 Hellcat (0 airborne, 20 on standby, 0 scrambling)
10 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 37000 , scrambling fighters between 28000 and 37000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 25 minutes
VF-18 with F6F-5 Hellcat (0 airborne, 20 on standby, 0 scrambling)
10 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 37000 , scrambling fighters between 24000 and 37000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 27 minutes
VF-71 with F4U-1D Corsair (0 airborne, 23 on standby, 0 scrambling)
11 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 27000 and 36000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 22 minutes

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Atimonan , at 80,79

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 37 NM, estimated altitude 35,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84a Frank x 49

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 63
F6F-5 Hellcat x 91

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84a Frank: 7 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
28 x Ki-84a Frank sweeping at 31000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 18th Cavalry Regiment, at 61,60 , near Udon Thani

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B7A2 Grace x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
B7A2 Grace: 1 damaged

Allied ground losses:
17 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 7 (4 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x B7A2 Grace releasing from 1000'
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Atimonan , at 80,79

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 144 NM, estimated altitude 33,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 35 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84a Frank x 49

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 61
F6F-5 Hellcat x 86

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84a Frank: 11 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
15 x Ki-84a Frank sweeping at 31000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Mauban (80,78)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 8310 troops, 24 guns, 430 vehicles, Assault Value = 412

Defending force 3504 troops, 24 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 113

Allied adjusted assault: 238

Japanese adjusted defense: 393

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+)
Attacker: leaders(+)

Japanese ground losses:
308 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 21 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled

Allied ground losses:
29 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled

Assaulting units:
I Corps Cmbt Engineer Regiment
754th Tank Battalion
192nd Tank Battalion

Defending units:
8th Exped. Force

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR December 10, 44
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Time Surface Combat, near Lucena at 79,79, Range 1,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Kagero
DD Hatsukaze
DD Maikaze, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Amatsukaze

Allied Ships
PT-120
PT-143
PT-147, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
PT-359
PT-360
PT-361
PT-372
PT-373
PT-374
PT-375
PT-376

Reduced sighting due to 21% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 21% moonlight: 2,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Calapan , at 78,79

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 46 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy x 9

No Japanese losses

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy laying Type 3 Mine from 5000 feet *

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Lucena at 79,79, Range 3,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Kagero
DD Hatsukaze
DD Maikaze
DD Amatsukaze, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
PT-474
PT-475
PT-476
PT-477
PT-478, heavy damage
PT-479
PT-480
PT-481
PT-482
PT-483
PT-484
PT-485

Reduced sighting due to 10% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 10% moonlight: 2,000 yards
Range closes to 24,000 yards...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at 68,115

TF 79 troops unloading over beach at 68,115

Allied ground losses:
1435 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 232 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 240 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 68 (0 destroyed, 68 disabled)
Vehicles lost 69 (0 destroyed, 69 disabled)

11 troops of a AIF Inf Section 43 lost in surf during unload of 3rd Australian Div /6

Whoops! Looks like some Aussies got left at the wrong beach!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Tourane at 69,68

Japanese Ships
E No.24

Allied Ships
SS Roncador, hits 3

SS Roncador launches 4 torpedoes at E No.24
Roncador diving deep ....
E No.24 fails to find sub, continues to search...
E No.24 attacking submerged sub ....
E No.24 fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on 50th Tank Brigade, at 62,62 , near Ubon

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 41 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B7A2 Grace x 40
D4Y1 Judy x 8
D4Y4 Judy x 34

Japanese aircraft losses
B7A2 Grace: 1 damaged

Allied ground losses:
35 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 11 (3 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x D4Y4 Judy releasing from 3000'
Ground Attack: 1 x 800 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 50th Tank Brigade, at 62,62 , near Ubon

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B7A2 Grace x 13

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
21 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B7A2 Grace releasing from 1000'
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 80th Garrison Battalion, at 61,59 (Udon Thani)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 12 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 9
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 10

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
427 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 25 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 24 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Completely destroyed by subsequent attacks again.

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x PB4Y-1 Liberator bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 33rd Division, at 55,59 , near Tavoy

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.III x 3
Liberator GR.VI x 3
B-24J Liberator x 5
B-17F Fortress x 9
B-24D Liberator x 5
B-24D1 Liberator x 12
B-24J Liberator x 60

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator GR.VI: 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 damaged
B-17F Fortress: 1 destroyed by flak
B-24D Liberator: 1 damaged
B-24D1 Liberator: 2 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 11 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
66 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Miyako-jima at 92,67

Japanese Ships
E No.61
E No.21
E No.51

Allied Ships
SS Bonefish, hits 2

SS Bonefish is located by E No.61
Bonefish diving deep ....
E No.61 fails to find sub, continues to search...
E No.61 attacking submerged sub ....
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Batan Island at 86,69

Japanese Ships
DD Kaya
DD Kiri
DD Kaede

Allied Ships
SS Plaice, hits 3

SS Plaice launches 2 torpedoes at DD Kaya
Plaice diving deep ....
DD Kaede fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kaya attacking submerged sub ....
DD Kaya is out of ASW ammo
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Udon Thani (61,59)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 362 troops, 0 guns, 148 vehicles, Assault Value = 46

Defending force 0 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 0

Allied adjusted assault: 34

Japanese adjusted defense: 1

Allied assault odds: 34 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied forces CAPTURE Udon Thani !!!

Combat modifiers
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(+), disruption(-)

Assaulting units:
Provisionl Tank Brigade
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reinforcements: These new units at Saigon will immediately head out for bases on Formosa.

38th Army arrives at Saigon
39th Army arrives at Bangkok
55th Air Division arrives at Saigon
T-302 Hikotai arrives at Yokohama/Yokosuka
E No.74 arrives at Tokyo
ML G-433 arrives at Hakodate
61st Field AA Battalion arrives at Tokyo

Losses:

Loss of MTB G-553 on Dec 09, 1944 is admitted
Loss of MTB G-224 on Dec 09, 1944 is admitted
Loss of MTB G-226 on Dec 09, 1944 is admitted
Loss of xAKL Tainichi Maru on Dec 09, 1944 is admitted
Loss of E Hirado on Dec 09, 1944 is admitted
Loss of DD Amatsukaze on Dec 10, 1944 is admitted


Ships Sunk: Often another ship goes on the list instead of these coming off, but that doesn't always enter the reports for the turn seemingly.

SS Haddo is reported to have been sunk near Naha on Dec 09, 1944
Previous report of sinking of SS Salmon incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service
Previous report of sinking of SS Flounder incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service
Previous report of sinking of SS Jack incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service
Previous report of sinking of TK Santa Maria incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service
PT-147 is reported to have been sunk near Lucena on Dec 10, 1944
PT-375 is reported to have been sunk near Lucena on Dec 10, 1944
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Uh-OH!! The manufacturing industry is targeted for the first time, but it's a decent hit. More in the next post.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 10/10/2013 10:57:40 AM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2292
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/10/2013 11:26:06 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		TOKYO IS BOMBED!!!
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Preparations were in place, but they seem to do little to avoid MAJOR damage from one fairly light strike at night. This is not going to be a fun thing to watch for the next months.

On the night only 56 B-29s hit Tokyo with 21% moonlight and 'heavy rain' at 9k. There are 7 night fighters up, and 5 of those are lost during the strikes to defensive fire.

From fighters and flak 10 B-29 are damaged and 2 are listed as lost to ops after the turn.

I've been wondering for a long while if there is something wrong with AA at night. In spite of heavy concentrations of big guns with radar warning I've rarely seen more than a few hits during a night strike, whereas during the day I've seen up to 30 planes downed and literally 100s damaged.

I can see how night flak could be somewhat less effective, but it seems to hardly work at all. Was it really this different in the war? I've found some interesting reading, and I'll just link to one article now and post a short piece of it. This is written in late 43 by US intelligence.

Japanese ground batteries of heavy guns apparently have no electrically-operated data computers, and the guns are aimed by fixed sights. Lateral and vertical deflection, slant range and super-elevation are determined by using drums, dials and disks located on the gun.

It is natural, therefore, that the Germans, with their modern electrical data computing equipment, achieve greater accuracy than the Japanese.

The Japs have achieved their greatest accuracy at medium altitudes, the accuracy falling off sharply above 15,000 feet.

Sometimes the Japanese use stalking planes, flying at the same altitude as our bombers, to relay information to the gun crews. When these stalkers are present, adjustment of antiaircraft fire has been more rapid than normally. The Japanese are also clever about pre-estimating the altitude of clouds as a factor in determining the altitude of the attacking planes.

Although Japanese AA fire is usually inaccurate when only one bombing approach is made, a second approach at the same altitude and from the same direction will very often encounter accurate AA fire, since the gunners can then use data computed from the first approach.

There is some info about night searchlight techniques and night-fighter guidance as well, but little about the effectiveness of actual flak at night vs during the day. This would make me assume that there is not a huge drop-off in effectiveness, but this is simply an assumption. Does anyone have any other good sources on this, or thoughts on why it's so seemingly limited at night in game?

http://www.lonesentry.com/articles/ttt09/japanese-antiaircraft.html

Tokyo has a 95 flak rating with 16 x 12cm, 24 x 88mm and 49 x 75mm guns in base and three AA units with radar in addition to the many base forces with it as well.

So far 136 point of HI, 30 points of Manpower, 14 points of resources and 22 engine factories are destroyed, and 5,948 fires still are burning.

I fully expect to lose some things here. It's late 44 and the Allies should be bombing the Home Islands. It just seems this is a rather small strike in somewhat poor conditions, with some NFs and lots of flak but giving some pretty good results for the Allies with seemingly few losses. The most HI destroyed in any one attack in game I believe, even though it's 5% of the total in Tokyo (so far).

Just so we're clear, I'm not complaining about the strike, just looking for thoughts on whether night flak is working as it should or if maybe this could be looked at in tech? Or am I simply not using enough to make a difference at night? Is there a threshold where it starts to do better?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60 moon at 21%

Weather in hex: Heavy rain Bad weather

Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes Radar detection

Japanese aircraft
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah x 7 Night fighters guided by multiple radars, set at the altitude the bombers arrive at

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged flak or fighters do damage a few planes

Manpower hits 3
Fires 1680

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet * All bombers get through to target
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
6 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
16th I.F.Chutai with Ki-46-III KAI Dinah (0 airborne, 2 on standby, 1 scrambling)
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 8000 and 14000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 48 minutes
16th I.F.Chutai Det with Ki-46-III KAI Dinah (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 3 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 2 minutes Apparently the three that make it in time ALL get shot down

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah x 3

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 14

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 4 damaged Flak or fighters do damage some planes

Manpower hits 10
Fires 7620

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet * All bombers get through to target
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
8 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
16th I.F.Chutai Det with Ki-46-III KAI Dinah (2 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 1 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 31 minutes

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 14 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah x 2

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
16th I.F.Chutai Det with Ki-46-III KAI Dinah (2 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Raid is overhead

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 42 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah x 2

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah: 1 destroyed

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
16th I.F.Chutai Det with Ki-46-III KAI Dinah (2 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Raid is overhead

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 15 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 6 No influence (seemingly) from flak or fighters, 30% hit rate

No Allied losses

Manpower hits 18
Fires 14500

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 21 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 7

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 10
Fires 21590

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 18 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 6

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 11
Fires 27940 Enough to take out 134 points of HI factories! (plus other losses including 22 points off of the Ha-35 factory, and still burning!)

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

< Message edited by obvert -- 10/10/2013 11:44:20 AM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2293
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/10/2013 1:47:27 PM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Tokyo has a 95 flak rating with 16 x 12cm, 24 x 88mm and 49 x 75mm guns in base and three AA units with radar in addition to the many base forces with it as well.

So far 136 point of HI, 30 points of Manpower, 14 points of resources and 22 engine factories are destroyed, and 5,948 fires still are burning.

I fully expect to lose some things here. It's late 44 and the Allies should be bombing the Home Islands. It just seems this is a rather small strike in somewhat poor conditions, with some NFs and lots of flak but giving some pretty good results for the Allies with seemingly few losses. The most HI destroyed in any one attack in game I believe, even though it's 5% of the total in Tokyo (so far).

Just so we're clear, I'm not complaining about the strike, just looking for thoughts on whether night flak is working as it should or if maybe this could be looked at in tech? Or am I simply not using enough to make a difference at night? Is there a threshold where it starts to do better?


My experience is to buckle down and get ready for a lot of really bad news that you can't do anything about.
1. Night flak never seems to hit anything. No idea if this is historical or not. As you discovered, I also could find nothing on effectiveness between the two.
2. NF's - rarely seem to impact 4E's at night ... no idea why. They have a good impact against 2E's.
3. Searchlights/radar have minimal impact.
4. Destruction seems to be a % factor, which kinda makes sense. If there is more there, then it is easier to hit. Anyway, on Tokyo, you will see pretty big losses every night. Wait until he gets +100,000 fires going ... you will see 500 - 1000 factories go up in smoke ..
5. By IJ standards you have a lot of flak there. By allied standards, not hardly. If you look at allied flak units, they get 3 - 10x the number of guns in one unit. This might be part of the issue, not sure. It's almost impossible for IJ to gather into one base the amount of flak that the allies can with 3 of their larger flak units as it would be litterally almost all of the IJ flak on the board.

Example of US AA TOE: 64x 50cal + 32x37mm + 32x3"


_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2294
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/10/2013 8:03:01 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Tokyo has a 95 flak rating with 16 x 12cm, 24 x 88mm and 49 x 75mm guns in base and three AA units with radar in addition to the many base forces with it as well.

So far 136 point of HI, 30 points of Manpower, 14 points of resources and 22 engine factories are destroyed, and 5,948 fires still are burning.

I fully expect to lose some things here. It's late 44 and the Allies should be bombing the Home Islands. It just seems this is a rather small strike in somewhat poor conditions, with some NFs and lots of flak but giving some pretty good results for the Allies with seemingly few losses. The most HI destroyed in any one attack in game I believe, even though it's 5% of the total in Tokyo (so far).

Just so we're clear, I'm not complaining about the strike, just looking for thoughts on whether night flak is working as it should or if maybe this could be looked at in tech? Or am I simply not using enough to make a difference at night? Is there a threshold where it starts to do better?


My experience is to buckle down and get ready for a lot of really bad news that you can't do anything about.





Yes, this is the state of playing late war Japan. I get it, but wow, it's not easy to make the transition, still.

quote:


1. Night flak never seems to hit anything. No idea if this is historical or not. As you discovered, I also could find nothing on effectiveness between the two.
2. NF's - rarely seem to impact 4E's at night ... no idea why. They have a good impact against 2E's.
3. Searchlights/radar have minimal impact.
4. Destruction seems to be a % factor, which kinda makes sense. If there is more there, then it is easier to hit. Anyway, on Tokyo, you will see pretty big losses every night. Wait until he gets +100,000 fires going ... you will see 500 - 1000 factories go up in smoke ..
5. By IJ standards you have a lot of flak there. By allied standards, not hardly. If you look at allied flak units, they get 3 - 10x the number of guns in one unit. This might be part of the issue, not sure. It's almost impossible for IJ to gather into one base the amount of flak that the allies can with 3 of their larger flak units as it would be litterally almost all of the IJ flak on the board.

Example of US AA TOE: 64x 50cal + 32x37mm + 32x3"



I have more flak arriving soon, and I will allocate most of it to Tokyo and to big centers of airframe, engine and HI/LI production. It's been a scramble of years to get defenses ready, and it still is now!


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 2295
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/11/2013 9:09:13 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		11 - 12 December 1944
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SUBS: It's a good day for ASW! The Pogy is hit hard, which earlier in the game torpedoed the Junyo. The Sablefish is sunk outright. The Paddle gets 20 hits and 'heavy damage.' The Plaice and the Narwhal each get solid hits that should send them home and many more are 'claimed' hit by air. This is the result of days working in the same area under a massive air coverage and now almost ten ASW TFs working that spot as well. He's begun moving some subs North between Nagasaki and Taihoku and that is going right toward the danger rather than away from it as 150 bombers are searching from the bases on Formosa.

HOME ISLANDS: The fires rage at Tokyo taking out another 100+ points of HI and a good 75 chunk of LI.

DEI: Sent another small LST TF to it's death collecting supplies from Waingipoe. Enough of that now. No detection, my my senses were tingling that the attack would come even after sitting for two days untouched loading. I have to trust my own intuition more.

So basically all of the lower DEI areas are evacuated. Java has some troops but a good chunk of engineer, base forces and a few LCU are loading now for Saigon. The air defenses will remain at Soerabaja and a tanker TF will continue to try pulling fuel out as long as possible. It's mid-December now! I never thought this area would still be under our control this late, so it's all a bonus now.

NORTH PACIFIC: Pulling the last retreating unit out of Adak back to the Kuriles. All others will stay here. If he does ever come North now though I'm pretty sure it will be direct to the Kuriles, but I'd rather leave a few base forces and naval guards just for that reason. If anything does get stalled it will then be more difficult to use direct supply line from the North Pacific.

CHINA/INDOCHINA: I've sent two more divisions up into the Chinese mountains. I reconned Lashio just to see if Jocke might try anything up here. Sure enough there is a build-up of some 80k troops there. He may be able to get Paoshan, but Tsuyung at level 6 forts with two brigades and two divisions defending will likely be impregnable unless he sends a lot more than it looks like is there now. I don't want to give easy access to open up the Chinese, but I won't allocate enough to make sure it's fully stopped here. I want him to make the move and use some resources up there, most likely for no real chance to open it up. If he'd sent them to Indochina they could be moving on Vihn right now and THAT would have been disaster.

PI: No action as sweeps hit air. Just testing right now.

THAILAND: The Allies take Ubon. This means now they'll have to cross a river to keep moving. That'll be interesting. Also, it seems a small unit has come to block the rail from Bangkok. I will bomb it tomorrow. This isn't great, but between air attacks and the two brigades moving out from Bangkok, I should be able to open retreat here. That is unless a major unit is behind these. Dicey moments.

If all else fails I've got two division capable TFs nearby and I could go in and pick up troops by sea.

Heavy air bombardments on the Burma Army take out another 1k casualties. Still I have to be happy that he's hitting essentially lost troops with literally half of his available 4Es and has been for the past several months. I guess until Bangkok is lost there is nothing else for them to do.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR December 11, 44
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Time Surface Combat, near Waingapoe at 63,113, Range 10,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
E No.2, Shell hits 18, and is sunk
APD T-3, Shell hits 39, and is sunk
APD T-7, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
LST T-133, Shell hits 15, and is sunk
LST T-136, Shell hits 12, and is sunk
LST T-137, Shell hits 16, and is sunk
LST T-141, Shell hits 17, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Bell
DD Black
DD Boyd
DD Clarence Bronson
DD Halligan
DD Lewis Hancock
DD Hickox
DD Hunt, Shell hits 1
DD Duncan
DD Harding, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Doyle

Reduced sighting due to 10% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 10% moonlight: 10,000 yards
Range closes to 25,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 25,000 yards
Range closes to 20,000 yards...
Range closes to 15,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 15,000 yards
Range closes to 10,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 10,000 yards
LST T-133 collides with APD T-3 at 63 , 113

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 18th Cavalry Regiment, at 62,62 , near Ubon

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B7A2 Grace x 8
D4Y1 Judy x 9
D4Y4 Judy x 23
Ki-100-I Tony x 10

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 6 (2 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x D4Y4 Judy releasing from 3000'
Ground Attack: 1 x 800 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 18th Cavalry Regiment, at 62,62 , near Ubon

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 14 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B7A2 Grace x 15
D4Y1 Judy x 24

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
17 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000'
Ground Attack: 1 x 500 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Provisionl Tank Brigade, at 61,59 (Udon Thani)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B7A2 Grace x 7
D4Y4 Judy x 11

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 5 (2 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x D4Y4 Judy releasing from 2000' *
Ground Attack: 1 x 500 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Provisionl Tank Brigade, at 61,59 (Udon Thani)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B7A2 Grace x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
B7A2 Grace: 1 damaged

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x B7A2 Grace releasing from 3000'
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Udon Thani , at 61,59

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 2 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 0 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy x 32
Ki-100-I Tony x 28

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 4 (2 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Airbase hits 2
Runway hits 11

Aircraft Attacking:
16 x Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy bombing from 6000 feet *
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR December 12, 44
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ASW attack near Naha at 93,68

Japanese Ships
E No.28
E No.132
E No.56

Allied Ships
SS Paddle, hits 20, heavy damage

SS Paddle is sighted by escort
E No.132 attacking submerged sub ....
E No.132 fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Submarine attack near Kiungshan at 72,63

Japanese Ships
E Shonan
E Iki
E Manju

Allied Ships
SS Sablefish, hits 17, heavy fires, heavy damage

SS Sablefish is sighted by escort
E Shonan fails to find sub, continues to search...
E Shonan attacking submerged sub ....
SS Sablefish forced to surface!
E Iki firing on surfaced sub ....
E Manju firing on surfaced sub ....
Sub slips beneath the waves

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Taihoku at 87,63

Japanese Ships
DD Matsu
BB Yamashiro
BB Mutsu
DD Take
DD Kashi
DD Hinoki

Allied Ships
SS Pogy, hits 13, heavy damage

SS Pogy launches 2 torpedoes at DD Matsu
Pogy bottoming out ....
DD Kashi attacking submerged sub ....
DD Kashi fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Ishigaki at 88,69

Japanese Ships
SC Ch 32
SC Ch 29
SC Ch 28
SC Ch 30

Allied Ships
SS Narwhal, hits 6

SS Narwhal launches 2 torpedoes at SC Ch 32
Narwhal diving deep ....
SC Ch 32 fails to find sub and abandons search
SC Ch 30 attacking submerged sub ....
SC Ch 30 fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at Endeh (65,113)

TF 79 troops unloading over beach at Endeh, 65,113

Allied ground losses:
44 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 3 (0 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Vehicles lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Motorized Support accidentally lost during unload of 3rd Australian Div /6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Iriomote at 89,64

Japanese Ships
E Yashiro
SC Ch 51
SC Ch 5
AK Kosei Maru
AK Naruto Maru
AK Nako Maru
xAP Kashima Maru
DD Hatakaze
E W-38

Allied Ships
SS Plaice, hits 3

SS Plaice launches 2 torpedoes at E Yashiro
Plaice diving deep ....
DD Hatakaze fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Hatakaze fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 33rd Division, at 55,59 , near Tavoy

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 38 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 26
Liberator GR.VI x 11
B-24D Liberator x 5
B-24D1 Liberator x 12
B-24J Liberator x 84
B-25D1 Mitchell x 3
B-25G Mitchell x 3
B-25H Mitchell x 18
B-25J1 Mitchell x 5
B-25J11 Mitchell x 5
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 26
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 11

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 1 damaged
Liberator GR.VI: 2 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 1 damaged
B-24D1 Liberator: 2 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 7 damaged
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
782 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 38 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 67 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
11 x PBJ-1D Mitchell bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 18th Cavalry Regiment, at 62,62 , near Ubon

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B7A2 Grace x 11
D4Y1 Judy x 25
D4Y4 Judy x 18

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
14 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x D4Y4 Judy releasing from 1000'
Ground Attack: 1 x 800 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Mauban (80,78)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 7274 troops, 18 guns, 286 vehicles, Assault Value = 406

Defending force 3343 troops, 24 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 97

Allied adjusted assault: 122

Japanese adjusted defense: 137

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker: fatigue(-)

Japanese ground losses:
129 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
29 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled

Assaulting units:
754th Tank Battalion
I Corps Cmbt Engineer Regiment
192nd Tank Battalion

Defending units:
8th Exped. Force

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Ubon (62,63)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 2619 troops, 18 guns, 279 vehicles, Assault Value = 242

Defending force 679 troops, 1 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 28

Allied adjusted assault: 73

Japanese adjusted defense: 1

Allied assault odds: 73 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied forces CAPTURE Ubon !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), experience(-)
Attacker: disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
637 casualties reported
Squads: 13 destroyed, 7 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 1

Allied ground losses:
14 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
50th Tank Brigade
18th Cavalry Regiment

Defending units:
79th Garrison Battalion

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reinforcements: More NF go to Tokyo. There should be 40-50 planes in both Tokyo and Osaka within the week, and a few more dotted around the HI.

16th I.F.Chutai Det arrives at Tokyo
18th Tank Regiment arrives at Tokyo
1st Ind. Field Artillery Battalion arrives at Tokyo
210 Ku S-1 arrives at Bihoro
210 Ku S-2 arrives at Bihoro
210 Ku S-3 arrives at Bihoro
I.11-1 arrives at Fukuoka
31st Army arrives at Tokyo
88th Infantry Regiment arrives at Tokyo
36th Field AA Battalion arrives at Tokyo
59th Field AA Battalion arrives at Tokyo
227th Naval Construction Battalion arrives at Tokyo

Losses:

Loss of E No.2 on Dec 11, 1944 is admitted
Loss of APD T-3 on Dec 11, 1944 is admitted
Loss of APD T-7 on Dec 11, 1944 is admitted
Loss of LST T-133 on Dec 11, 1944 is admitted
Loss of LST T-136 on Dec 11, 1944 is admitted
Loss of LST T-137 on Dec 11, 1944 is admitted
Loss of LST T-141 on Dec 11, 1944 is admitted

Ships Sunk:

SS Sablefish is reported to have been sunk near Kiungshan on Dec 12, 1944
LST-16 is reported to have been sunk near Talaud-eilanden on Sep 02, 1944
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

A lot will depend on these slow old NF. At least the radar version has been heavily built now and equips most IJN NF groups.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 10/11/2013 12:36:51 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2296
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/11/2013 12:32:24 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		AIR HRs AGAIN
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

We're still thinking about the HR of 2nd best maneuver band. It's an abstract that we've had all game and Jocke is still interested in changing this now that I have a plane that can take advantage of it.

I almost proposed a set 31k limit to altitude during our previous exchange, but now he's come back with a similar idea. He proposes a set 32k limit or an unlimited defensive CAP with 32k limit on sweeps. Either of these would reduce my offensive ability but both could add to my defense.

What do you all think?

My response included a more strategic overview of the air research and production side of the Japanese game. I emphasized the Frank 'r' as early as 41 by adding factories to research it, knowing it would likely be the first available plane to be able to get over 31k. It's a good plane, and I can't complain, but I would have likely made difference choices if we hadn't had this HR.

From other games I'd seen I knew the Frank 'b' is the best bomber-killer in game and I would have added more of those, plus more Ki-83 and J7W research as those are arguably the most able of the Japanese planes in the late war with their higher speeds. As is I will only be able to build 90 K-83 a month now, won't get it as early, won't get the J7W1 until later in 45, and won't get the Frank 'b' at all. (This one I screwed up, but most likely wouldn't have if it had already started production, as I simply didn't know it would 'upgrade' from R n D to production into the Frank 'r' without finishing it's research. )

So, it's not just tactics we're talking about. It's a whole plan that I am considering altering, with unknown consequences, simply because the Allies have concentrated on using certain airframes exclusively and prodigiously, using the possible extreme pacing in game to it's fullest extent, and now are most likely feeling the pinch in their pools of the several chosen planes. (Jocke has intimated as much without breaking OPSEC by telling me so, but I also know from my air losses screen that certain airframes are stretched thin).

Do I concede, as I did on China, denying my entire strategic focus for the game to be able to continue when the Allied player was feeling it was pointless? Do I concede as I did in allowing the continued use of the game version with the coordination bug that allowed 300+ Allied 4Es to perfectly coordinate for the beginning phase of the Allied offensive through mid-43? (This version also allowed the extra intel on Japanese air placements pre-turn that meant I couldn't often jump a strike without my opponent seeing this about to happen).

What do you all think?
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2297
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/11/2013 1:34:44 PM   
MBF

 

Posts: 140
Joined: 3/25/2008
Status: offline 		I think my thought process is he is not realizing that the HR you agreed on at the start of the game affected your R&D and production - all decisions that have to be made early. Maybe conveying that to your opponent (without giving anything away) would help the discussion ?

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2298
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/11/2013 1:54:02 PM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline 		I would just say that the HR change now would be too challenging for you to adapt to. Leave it at that. You know I am a BIG fan of the 84b/Shinden combination in the late war for exactly the reasons you give. Your current HR mitigates that somewhat, changing it exacerbates it. As IJ at this point you can't afford to concede something this big unless he is willing to concede something equally as big like NO SOV activation.

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to MBF)
Post #: 2299
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/11/2013 5:40:06 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		Since you guys are talking HR's regarding altitude. Jocke has suggested this for our game. Any thoughts?

> 42 - 20k
> 43 - 25k
> 44 - 30k
> 45 - no limit



_____________________________

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Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 2300
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/11/2013 7:53:02 PM   
Yaab


Posts: 4552
Joined: 11/8/2011
From: Poland
Status: offline 		Just an observation about the B-29 attack on Tokyo. It is ironic that you got those raging fires when it was heavy rain in the hex.

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 2301
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/11/2013 11:18:06 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Yaab

Just an observation about the B-29 attack on Tokyo. It is ironic that you got those raging fires when it was heavy rain in the hex.


Right?

I don't think any of that is built in. The fires went on for three days! Only 56 B-29s but causing amazing devastation.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Yaab)
Post #: 2302
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/12/2013 12:02:07 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Since you guys are talking HR's regarding altitude. Jocke has suggested this for our game. Any thoughts?

> 42 - 20k
> 43 - 25k
> 44 - 30k
> 45 - no limit




I think it might be fine. It's going to be better for his P40E early. You'll still have th abetter climbers for defensive CAP, and if you have radar they'll go up over sweeps and get a dive. Especially Jacks and Tojos. Your sweeping will be reduced, but you won't get dusted by 100+ P-47s from 42k either.

In 45 I would counter propose a still fixed limit or else you face a sudden transition to mega-strato sweeping by ALL Allied fighters. Why not 35k? Still allows all planes to fly up there, the Allies have better ratings in the final band (meaning Japanese fighter's maneuver advantage is reversed and the speed disadvantage thus magnified) but the Japanese have more good climbers with the Jack, Sam and Tojo if still in use.

I'm still not really there though so my thoughts might be off a bit.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 2303
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/12/2013 12:06:02 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

I would just say that the HR change now would be too challenging for you to adapt to. Leave it at that. You know I am a BIG fan of the 84b/Shinden combination in the late war for exactly the reasons you give. Your current HR mitigates that somewhat, changing it exacerbates it. As IJ at this point you can't afford to concede something this big unless he is willing to concede something equally as big like NO SOV activation.


Do you think it will lead to Allied domination over even these later planes? I've just been thinking it would tone down P-47 sweeps to all arrive at 32k, and my fighters on defense all have good climb rates, mostly better than the Allied. Where it would hurt is offensively. No more sweeping for Mr. R. Frank.

Any other thoughts? Please respond even if you're reading both sides. I need feedback. I won't change without getting some more thoughts as I don't really have time to test right now. If you have opinions please share whatever they are.



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Post #: 2304
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/12/2013 12:07:11 PM   
koniu


Posts: 2763
Joined: 2/28/2011
From: Konin, Poland, European Union
Status: offline 		Obvert, because You reach another milestone in game - Home Islands are bombed by B-29,
can You show us how Your economy is looking. Supplies, resources HI. Planes production and reserve, engines, pilot pools.

It will be very appreciate by players that like me are ~1 year behind You

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RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/12/2013 12:11:50 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: koniu

Obvert, because You reach another milestone in game - Home Islands are bombed by B-29,
can You show us how Your economy is looking. Supplies, resources HI. Planes production and reserve, engines, pilot pools.

It will be very appreciate by players that like me are ~1 year behind You


Definitely. I plan to reinstall tracker and do some massive updating on everything when I get to 45. In the meantime I'll try in the next few days to use the in game screens to show the basics. Might be able to do some tomorrow.

Just in brief, I have plenty of HI, and I'm more worried about supply. It is apparently wrecked by fires too, so having a ton in the HI saved up might not work out so well since it all sits in the big bases which will be bombed. Then of course if you want to keep making things that get wrecked you need more supply to do some repairs.

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RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/12/2013 12:26:39 PM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline 		Supply is very susceptible to bombing. You have to be sure that you have dispersed it thoughout the HI. It will naturally pool in Tokyo and you can lose a lot in one bomb strike.

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RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/12/2013 12:41:48 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		Most bases in the Home Islands are set to accumulate between 15-30k supplies (set at 5k-10k which of course means x3), just to share it around and make sure that factories always have some to repair. I may have to find bases I think will not be bombed and start some stores there. Places with no factories, big enough field/port to accommodate lots of supply, and no other fancy attractive things like HI/LI.

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RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/13/2013 1:12:33 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		INFO
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I'll start getting some information out here about the state of things nearing 45. Some areas are looking bleak, but others seem decent for a while.

Here is a screen showing the HI and OIL production still left. The reserves are steadily disappearing, and the noose is closing around the DEI. No incursions yet to raid oil transportation except by subs. I have one convoy loading now of 55k and another fuel convoy about to load of 75k. A third big TF is approaching and will bring fuel and oil back. These will literally be the last 'planned' major convoys. Not that I won't keep trying, but this is the cutoff I had aimed for and I have sneaking suspicions he will try more here soon. Northern Borneo or just naval raids across, or potentially even a bigger move somewhere else.

The HI at Tokyo was severely cut in the one 56 plane raid so far. The base now has literally double the flak from newly arrived units, plus 75 night fighters. Another 50 are in Osaka and one group each in Nagoya and Hamamatsu. I'm starting to also turn on more and more daylight fighters. My first training group arrived yesterday for fighters, and those will help.

There is plenty of HI savings as I made my goal of 3 million and should get to 3.1 million by 45. That feel good.

Now I just have to make sure I've got factories left to build things.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 10/13/2013 10:02:05 AM >

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"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/13/2013 2:50:14 AM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline 		Erik,

That's why I kick out key engines and ARM/VEH points like crazy. Once built and in pools, they are safe from bombing. Ha-45 and some others, you know you will use all you build, so I just build. Same with ARM/VEH, you can't have too many. If you assume the avg device is LoadCost=12, that means 12 ARM/VEH or 72 HI per device. You need a lot of ARM/VEH to fill up your losses in 45/46.

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