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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A)

 
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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/11/2019 2:30:29 AM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

One last thing. Here's what I did for that 20k supply per day at the beginning of the war. There is a lot of stuff that needs to be increased. I made sure that I never spent more than 10k a day on the infrastructure. That's 10 things increasing at any one time. If you try to do everything at once, you'll bankrupt yourself. I never had an issue doing that. I would recalculate every time I had a new conquest. Half of that conquest was available for infrastructure increases. That took bookkeeping, but it works. The only supply I ship out of Japan is ~150k for Miri. I want that oil building as soon as possible. It'll take 5 months to repair it all, assuming no damage when it's taken.

+1

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Post #: 4441
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/11/2019 2:33:29 AM   
jdsrae


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Everyone update your anti-virus before tomorrow

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Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to Mike Solli)
Post #: 4442
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/11/2019 1:56:26 PM   
Mike Solli


Posts: 15792
Joined: 10/18/2000
From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
Status: offline
21 Dec 43

Sub War

It was really weird. There was no sub/ASW activity at all by either side today. There was basically no night phase at all.

5 Fleet

So, today was the big day. I sent everyone in to assault Umnak Island. But, before that happened, my Sally sentai went in to soften the defenders up a bit. Later in the day, that US carrier fleet, far south of Umnak, sent in 22 Dauntlesses and 68 Avengers, their entire bomber inventory, to soften me up. I had 4x Oscar IIIas on LRCAP, and all they managed to do was to shoot one down. Apparently another crashed on the way home.

Here’s what happened:

Ground combat at Umnak Island (169,51)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 10238 troops, 152 guns, 180 vehicles, Assault Value = 294

Defending force 8183 troops, 41 guns, 165 vehicles, Assault Value = 68

Japanese adjusted assault: 120

Allied adjusted defense: 23

Japanese assault odds: 5 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Umnak Island !!!

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
Bolingbroke IV: 1 destroyed
P-400 Airacobra: 1 destroyed
C-47 Skytrain: 5 destroyed

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), preparation(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
187 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Allied ground losses:
7768 casualties reported
Squads: 133 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 835 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 22 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 39 (39 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 189 (189 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 5

Assaulting units:
19th/B Division
23rd Tank Regiment
19th/A Division
19th/C Division
4th Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
201st(Sep) Infantry Regiment
106th USN Base Force
North Pacific
Eleventh USAAF
802nd Engineer Aviation Battalion

Banzai! I suspect he pulled slices out of the units, but that’s still a lot of steps destroyed. I estimate this netted me over 500 VPs. I have a garrison and AS unit heading there. I’ll station a few fighters and 9 Judies to harass Dutch Harbor. I’m pulling out the division and tanks but will leave the artillery to support the garrison. The airfield and port are trashed (thanks Yamato TF!) so it’ll be a while before I can station the planes there.

The US carrier TF is heading SE toward Pearl. I have some subs vectoring in to try and get a shot off. It’s definitely worth the risk.

4 Fleet

I heard sinking sounds first thing and learned it was one of my xAPs that was torpedoed. Apparently it sank 1 hex shy of Saipan.

I have all of KB collecting 10 hexes east of Saipan. They’ll configure into 2 TF, and will be the most powerful carrier TF I’ve had to date. It is composed of 7 CVs and 2 CVLs. They have 282 Zeros (all armored), 117 Judies (18 are Y1, the rest Y3) and 138 Jills for 537 aircraft, with 73 reserve aircraft. They’re loaded for bear! I also have a replenishment fleet of 108k fuel to support them. Once everyone arrives (2 days) and refuels, they’ll disappear in the Pacific and wait.

SE Fleet

Almost 100 Allied bomber sorties hit Hollandia’s troops, disabling 5 squads. Not really worth it to me. Truk’s airfield was hit multiple times with some 200 sorties. Apparently, Ted wants to keep the airfield out of commission. My flak did kill 3x 4E bombers. On the down side, about 20 fighters were destroyed on the ground. I’ve written them off but it still pains me to see them destroyed in such a way.

SRA

Nothing to report. I continue to build defenses.

Burma

Over Akyab, 37 Tojos met 20 Hurricane IIcs. I lost 3 to his 8. I replaced that sentai with a Frank sentai for tomorrow. That should be a pleasant surprise for the Allies.

Nineteen Franks visited Kalemyo shooting down 3 of the remaining 7 Allied fighters (a mixture of Spitfire VIII, Hurricane IIc and Kittyhawk III).

China

My bombers flew, destroying 27 squads (2 infantry) and disabling another 227. The artillery bombardment added another 24 destroyed (21 infantry) and 31 disabled.

Yesterday’s attack (and possibly today’s bombardment/bombing) destroyed the following units:

Infantry: 76 remaining (-3)
Base force: 14 (-3)
Artillery: 0 (-1)
AT: 1 (no change)
AA: 2 (no change)
Construction: 0 (-1)
HQ: 10 (-12!)

They have 4 Corps (Group Army) HQs remaining, CAF (air) and 5 higher level HQs. Once I kill off either of the two categories, that will reduce the Chinese combat power.

Here are the Japanese army stats:

Fatigue: 72.1, -8.4
Disruption: 25.9, -14.0
Disablements: 15.5, -1.5

I don’t care about fatigue. They can rest when they die or conquer Chungking. Disruption is coming down nicely. My only concern is disablements. So far, I’ve been losing very few troops but this next attack is going to include everyone regardless of their state. I want as much power as I can muster. Tomorrow I’ll bomb/bombard, but probably will attack the day after.

Other Stuff

Reinforcement: DD Akishimo, (Yugumo class), KB escort

The Ki-84r R&D advanced to 5/44 (will become operational 2/44).

I got confirmation that the Grenadier sank off Truk on 8/17/43.

I have 3 IJN fighter sentai (all George) (Burma, Singapore and Saipan) that are front line fighters with 50+ experience, 70+ Air and 70+ def. They all are on 100% CAP, range 0, which boosts their experience nicely. When they get a pilot whose experience reaches 70, I pull him out and replace him with another, to build more experience. Those pilots are reserved for KB. I draw the pilots from the bottom of that pool for the land based fighters (and the top for KB). My goal going forward is to minimize the use of IJN LB fighters as much as possible. I need to start building up my IJN fighter pool. Its ok, but a couple big carrier battles will wipe it out. (And I know they are coming.)

I am excited about getting 4 new IJN fighter units in about 10 days. More trainers!


< Message edited by Mike Solli -- 2/11/2019 2:04:41 PM >


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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/12/2019 6:41:34 PM   
rustysi


Posts: 7472
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From: LI, NY
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Good to hear you're recovering. Stay healthy, or I won't be able to get my 'fix'.

NICE JOB at Umnak!!!! Would have liked to have been a fly on the wall when Ted received that news. Probably would've FOTWL (fell off the wall laughing).

quote:

boosts their experience nicely. When they get a pilot whose experience reaches 70, I pull him out and replace him with another, to build more experience. Those pilots are reserved for KB. I draw the pilots from the bottom of that pool for the land based fighters (and the top for KB). My goal going forward is to minimize the use of IJN LB fighters as much as possible.


Had an epiphany did we? Exactly what I attempt to do.

I wonder if that's a good thing.

_____________________________

It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

(in reply to Mike Solli)
Post #: 4444
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/12/2019 6:55:36 PM   
rustysi


Posts: 7472
Joined: 2/21/2012
From: LI, NY
Status: offline
BTW, is Dutch Harbor next??? Or do you think that's a 'bridge too far'.

_____________________________

It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

(in reply to rustysi)
Post #: 4445
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/12/2019 7:20:39 PM   
Mike Solli


Posts: 15792
Joined: 10/18/2000
From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
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quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

Good to hear you're recovering. Stay healthy, or I won't be able to get my 'fix'.

NICE JOB at Umnak!!!! Would have liked to have been a fly on the wall when Ted received that news. Probably would've FOTWL (fell off the wall laughing).

quote:

boosts their experience nicely. When they get a pilot whose experience reaches 70, I pull him out and replace him with another, to build more experience. Those pilots are reserved for KB. I draw the pilots from the bottom of that pool for the land based fighters (and the top for KB). My goal going forward is to minimize the use of IJN LB fighters as much as possible.


Had an epiphany did we? Exactly what I attempt to do.

I wonder if that's a good thing.


This is a good thing, I suspect. What I'm pondering is lowering my normal standard of 50+ exp, 70+ air, 70+ def. The def is what's killing me. I need to start bumping up my fighter pilot reserves in a big way. I'm thinking of lowering the def to 65+. What do you think?

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Post #: 4446
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/12/2019 7:24:06 PM   
Mike Solli


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From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
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quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

BTW, is Dutch Harbor next??? Or do you think that's a 'bridge too far'.


Originally, that was the plan. Not so sure now. I have no one prepped. I also have no idea what's there. Dutch Harbor's port is maxed out but the airfield is 0, so that's a plus. The nearest decent Allied airfield is at Kodiak.

I think it's too late, but if there isn't much there, I'll consider it.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/12/2019 7:28:43 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli


This is a good thing, I suspect. What I'm pondering is lowering my normal standard of 50+ exp, 70+ air, 70+ def. The def is what's killing me. I need to start bumping up my fighter pilot reserves in a big way. I'm thinking of lowering the def to 65+. What do you think?


I think it depends upon your opponent to a degree and the tempo of the game. I usually assign levels to pilots:

The best: KB pilots & Sweeper pilots
the good: front line layered defensive cap
the mediocre: escorts and rear base defense

however, some of the pilots that fly the lowest level of CAP are trained first to 70 def, I want them dancing in those Oscars. Same with escorts generally speaking...they never shoot down a lot of planes, but a decent defense means that they hopefully don't suffer too much.





(in reply to Mike Solli)
Post #: 4448
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/13/2019 6:39:03 PM   
rustysi


Posts: 7472
Joined: 2/21/2012
From: LI, NY
Status: offline
quote:

What I'm pondering is lowering my normal standard of 50+ exp, 70+ air, 70+ def. The def is what's killing me. I need to start bumping up my fighter pilot reserves in a big way. I'm thinking of lowering the def to 65+. What do you think?


I don't like to lower standards until absolutely necessary. To help get the defense up I've changed my training a bit. I now train 'Lowg' after 'air'. Once that's built up into the mid sixties I then switch to 'strafe'. Seems to speed defense up a bit. Or it could just be me. At any rate I like having the 'Lowg' higher in case there's the opportunity. Like you've been strafing in China. IIRC from 1k altitude you bomb then strafe.

_____________________________

It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 4449
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/13/2019 6:45:24 PM   
rustysi


Posts: 7472
Joined: 2/21/2012
From: LI, NY
Status: offline
BTW

quote:

I did learn that I can pull out the 8cm CD guns by air.


And now so have I, thanks.

quote:

They all are on 100% CAP, range 0, which boosts their experience nicely.


Never thought to try that, again thanks.

quote:

They have 282 Zeros (all armored),


All armored. Does that mean they're all A6M5c's. Isn't that the first armored Zero?



_____________________________

It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

(in reply to rustysi)
Post #: 4450
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/13/2019 6:50:39 PM   
rustysi


Posts: 7472
Joined: 2/21/2012
From: LI, NY
Status: offline
quote:

Dutch Harbor's port is maxed out but the airfield is 0, so that's a plus.


Should make the op easier.

But as you say...

quote:

I think it's too late,


quote:

I also have no idea what's there.


The second quote is the biggie.

I'd keep an eye out though, maybe Ted doesn't want to lose more LCU victory points after Umnak. He could be bailing on Dutch Harbor due to lack of air support. Just a thought.





_____________________________

It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

(in reply to rustysi)
Post #: 4451
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/13/2019 7:14:34 PM   
Mike Solli


Posts: 15792
Joined: 10/18/2000
From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli


This is a good thing, I suspect. What I'm pondering is lowering my normal standard of 50+ exp, 70+ air, 70+ def. The def is what's killing me. I need to start bumping up my fighter pilot reserves in a big way. I'm thinking of lowering the def to 65+. What do you think?


I think it depends upon your opponent to a degree and the tempo of the game. I usually assign levels to pilots:

The best: KB pilots & Sweeper pilots
the good: front line layered defensive cap
the mediocre: escorts and rear base defense

however, some of the pilots that fly the lowest level of CAP are trained first to 70 def, I want them dancing in those Oscars. Same with escorts generally speaking...they never shoot down a lot of planes, but a decent defense means that they hopefully don't suffer too much.



Very interesting. That's far more thought than I've ever given to this. But then, I've never come this far either.

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(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 4452
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/13/2019 7:15:19 PM   
Mike Solli


Posts: 15792
Joined: 10/18/2000
From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
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quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

What I'm pondering is lowering my normal standard of 50+ exp, 70+ air, 70+ def. The def is what's killing me. I need to start bumping up my fighter pilot reserves in a big way. I'm thinking of lowering the def to 65+. What do you think?


I don't like to lower standards until absolutely necessary. To help get the defense up I've changed my training a bit. I now train 'Lowg' after 'air'. Once that's built up into the mid sixties I then switch to 'strafe'. Seems to speed defense up a bit. Or it could just be me. At any rate I like having the 'Lowg' higher in case there's the opportunity. Like you've been strafing in China. IIRC from 1k altitude you bomb then strafe.


I absolutely agree with you. The concern is waiting too long....

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Post #: 4453
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/13/2019 7:24:31 PM   
Mike Solli


Posts: 15792
Joined: 10/18/2000
From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
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quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

Dutch Harbor's port is maxed out but the airfield is 0, so that's a plus.


Should make the op easier.

But as you say...

quote:

I think it's too late,


quote:

I also have no idea what's there.


The second quote is the biggie.

I'd keep an eye out though, maybe Ted doesn't want to lose more LCU victory points after Umnak. He could be bailing on Dutch Harbor due to lack of air support. Just a thought.


I've been focusing on Umnak. I have an Emily chutai up here keeping a nice eye on things, about a dozen of them. Until today, one was always reconning Umnak with the others looking for ships. I just switched the recon to Dutch Harbor today. It will give me an idea of what's there tomorrow. Not details, but something. I'll start "recon bombing" with the Sally sentai soon and when airfield repairs are complete, the Judy and Tojo chutais will join in as they can. If Ted decided to run from Dutch Harbor, he's already done it. There's no enemy shipping nearby. The US carriers are ~9-10 hexes south of Umnak (what's the range on an SBD-5 and Avenger?) and heading east. The US BBs were heading east last I saw them, about 7-8 hexes east of Umnak a couple days ago. My Emilies and subs lost track of them.

Finally, my BB TF up there is going to try and rearm at Adak this next turn. I have 2 AKEs and a Naval HQ there. We'll see if it's enough. If so, I'll probably pay Dutch Harbor a visit. Those BBs aren't staying long though, their sys damage is starting to build up.

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Post #: 4454
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/13/2019 7:27:48 PM   
Mike Solli


Posts: 15792
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From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
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quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

They have 282 Zeros (all armored),


All armored. Does that mean they're all A6M5c's. Isn't that the first armored Zero?




Not quite. A couple of the Unryus showed up with the A6M5b model. Amagi has some of them, so they're unarmored. They're almost identical to the A6M5. Two differences: 3mph slower and one of the 7.7mm was replaced with a 12.4mm. Now I remember why I didn't bother building any of them. They'll get replaced with the M5c next time she makes port.

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Post #: 4455
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/14/2019 6:03:03 PM   
rustysi


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From: LI, NY
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quote:

I have 2 AKEs and a Naval HQ there. We'll see if it's enough.


Should do the trick.

quote:

They'll get replaced with the M5c next time she makes port


How have you been dealing with their short range?

_____________________________

It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

(in reply to Mike Solli)
Post #: 4456
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/14/2019 6:34:10 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jdsrae

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Right now I have 4.3 million supply (up 100k from the beginning of the month), 3.2 million fuel (up about 25k), 22.5 million resources (up 600k) and 2.1 million oil (up 75k). That does not include convoys.

A lot can happen in 6 months, but I'm hoping to keep the SLOC open that long. My goal of stuff in the Home Islands is for June 1944. Edit: I'll discuss this soon.




Made me think of a question, so what size stockpile of Resources and Fuel is enough to stop convoy imports? The answer is probably never, just keep hauling until the allies start to interfere.
Assuming 30 day months to simplify the maths. Table below shows my working:



The answer is "when you have enough in Japan to last until March 1946 at your desired production levels", so the answer to that is not quite never but basically never.

You will likely lose access to Oil/Fuel before that occurs, causing you to have to begin to curtail production unless you want to run dry immediately and then adjust. I prefer to "glide" the economy down instead of running it at full capacity and then trying to rapidly reconfigure my brain space on the new situation when one of the liquids (Oil, almost certainly) runs dry in Japan.

(in reply to jdsrae)
Post #: 4457
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/14/2019 6:35:42 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli


quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

What I'm pondering is lowering my normal standard of 50+ exp, 70+ air, 70+ def. The def is what's killing me. I need to start bumping up my fighter pilot reserves in a big way. I'm thinking of lowering the def to 65+. What do you think?


I don't like to lower standards until absolutely necessary. To help get the defense up I've changed my training a bit. I now train 'Lowg' after 'air'. Once that's built up into the mid sixties I then switch to 'strafe'. Seems to speed defense up a bit. Or it could just be me. At any rate I like having the 'Lowg' higher in case there's the opportunity. Like you've been strafing in China. IIRC from 1k altitude you bomb then strafe.


I absolutely agree with you. The concern is waiting too long....


My preferred pilots are more like 65+ Exp, 70+ Air, and whatever level of Defense goes along with that. Higher is better. They're usually at least in the 60s.

The Exp is the hard part, not the rest.

(in reply to Mike Solli)
Post #: 4458
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/14/2019 8:41:35 PM   
Mike Solli


Posts: 15792
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From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
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quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

I have 2 AKEs and a Naval HQ there. We'll see if it's enough.


Should do the trick.

quote:

They'll get replaced with the M5c next time she makes port


How have you been dealing with their short range?


The 2 AKEs and HQ were enough to do the Yamatos and everything else except Nagato & Mutsu's main gun ammo before running out of OP points. More on all that in the replay below.

Their short range isn't difficult to deal with. Use drop tanks and set their range to 10, along with the Jills. No problem and no fatigue unless they fly. Some of the fighter units are set to no drop tanks and 100% CAP, range 0. That way, no real fatigue from CAP trying to fly out 10 hexes. Keep rotating units each day or two and everything is good.

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Post #: 4459
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/14/2019 8:42:34 PM   
Mike Solli


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: jdsrae

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Right now I have 4.3 million supply (up 100k from the beginning of the month), 3.2 million fuel (up about 25k), 22.5 million resources (up 600k) and 2.1 million oil (up 75k). That does not include convoys.

A lot can happen in 6 months, but I'm hoping to keep the SLOC open that long. My goal of stuff in the Home Islands is for June 1944. Edit: I'll discuss this soon.




Made me think of a question, so what size stockpile of Resources and Fuel is enough to stop convoy imports? The answer is probably never, just keep hauling until the allies start to interfere.
Assuming 30 day months to simplify the maths. Table below shows my working:



The answer is "when you have enough in Japan to last until March 1946 at your desired production levels", so the answer to that is not quite never but basically never.

You will likely lose access to Oil/Fuel before that occurs, causing you to have to begin to curtail production unless you want to run dry immediately and then adjust. I prefer to "glide" the economy down instead of running it at full capacity and then trying to rapidly reconfigure my brain space on the new situation when one of the liquids (Oil, almost certainly) runs dry in Japan.


Very true. I'm going to do an in depth analysis at the end of 43. State of the Empire, so to speak.

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Post #: 4460
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/14/2019 8:44:22 PM   
Mike Solli


Posts: 15792
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From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli


quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

What I'm pondering is lowering my normal standard of 50+ exp, 70+ air, 70+ def. The def is what's killing me. I need to start bumping up my fighter pilot reserves in a big way. I'm thinking of lowering the def to 65+. What do you think?


I don't like to lower standards until absolutely necessary. To help get the defense up I've changed my training a bit. I now train 'Lowg' after 'air'. Once that's built up into the mid sixties I then switch to 'strafe'. Seems to speed defense up a bit. Or it could just be me. At any rate I like having the 'Lowg' higher in case there's the opportunity. Like you've been strafing in China. IIRC from 1k altitude you bomb then strafe.


I absolutely agree with you. The concern is waiting too long....


My preferred pilots are more like 65+ Exp, 70+ Air, and whatever level of Defense goes along with that. Higher is better. They're usually at least in the 60s.

The Exp is the hard part, not the rest.

When I say 50+ experience, that is rarely when they are pulled from training. Also, if their experience is low like that, they end up in one of the 100% CAP training units (I have some 5-6 of them with half in Japan) to build up the exp levels.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/14/2019 9:02:17 PM   
Mike Solli


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22 Dec 43

Really short turn. Possibly the shortest yet.

Sub War

Nothing to report.

5 Fleet

It looks like Dutch Harbor has one small support unit there. (See screen shot below.) I have a Naval Guard at Adak that I started prepping for Dutch Harbor. It went immediately to 33%! Looks like he’s written the Aleutians off!

In addition, I see a small CVE TF with some 50 planes in it. Trying to vector some subs to check it out.

4 Fleet

Not much going on here.

KB and the Replenishment TF will come together tomorrow. They’ll refuel and form two Air TFs then disappear. Well, they’ve already disappeared because no one has spotted any of them.

SE Fleet

Hollandia received some 90 bomber sorties against the troops, with no real effect.

I’m pulling troops out of Truk in single ship TFs (as well as air transport) pretty successfully. I’m focusing mainly on the Guards Division, but am pulling slices out of as many as I can, prioritized by type and quality.

SRA

Nothing to report.

Burma

Six of 8 enemy fighters were shot down over Kalemyo for no Japanese loss.

China

Only 36 (of >160) 2E bombers (and 0 of 65 fighters flying ground attack) flew against Chungking today killing 4 infantry squads and disabling 11 more.

The artillery barrage killed 29 squads (28 infantry) and disabled another 30.

Rain over Chungking and in most of the airbases. The weather report for tomorrow shows clear weather in the region. I think I may go for another deliberate assault. The troops are far from ideal, but if the weather report is accurate, the bombers will all go in and do a number on the enemy before the assault.

Current status of the army:

Fatigue: 64.2 (-7.9)
Disruption: 21.5 (-4.4)
Disabled: 14.2 (-1.3)

Overall, raw AV changed as follows:

Chinese: 3874 (+102)
Japanese: 8320 (+303)

I currently have 7 of 26 divisions with >100 disabled infantry. The army isn’t in bad shape, but…

I feel that with good weather and full bomber participation, I may be able to achieve 2:1 odds tomorrow. It’s a risk though. Here’s the change in AV by day over the last week:

Day, Jp AV, Ch AV, Notes

12/16, 10138, 6972, barrage, no air (1.45:1 raw odds)
12/17, 10201, 6908, air, assault – 1:1 odds (1.48:1 raw odds, 1.91:1 adjusted odds)
12/18, 8814, 4957, air, barrage (1.78:1 raw odds)
12/19, 9348, 4965, air, barrage (1.88:1 raw odds)
12/20, 9412, 5055, no air, assault – 1:1 (1.86:1 raw odds, 1.79:1 adjusted odds), kept 3 divisions out of combat
12/21, 8017, 3772, air, barrage (2.12:1 raw odds)
12/22, 8320, 3874, 15% air, barrage (2.14:1 raw odds)
12/23, clear weather?????????

One infantry unit was resurrected, which probably accounts for a fair chunk of the Chinese AV increase this past turn.

Other Stuff

Reinforcement: MTB G-165





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Mike Solli -- 2/14/2019 9:03:05 PM >


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Post #: 4462
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/14/2019 10:35:12 PM   
Lowpe


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Short turn, eh? Check your sigint for the last couple of days and see if anything has been pinged at sea.

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Post #: 4463
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/15/2019 10:55:06 AM   
jdsrae


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quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

One last thing. Here's what I did for that 20k supply per day at the beginning of the war. There is a lot of stuff that needs to be increased. I made sure that I never spent more than 10k a day on the infrastructure. That's 10 things increasing at any one time. If you try to do everything at once, you'll bankrupt yourself. I never had an issue doing that. I would recalculate every time I had a new conquest. Half of that conquest was available for infrastructure increases. That took bookkeeping, but it works. The only supply I ship out of Japan is ~150k for Miri. I want that oil building as soon as possible. It'll take 5 months to repair it all, assuming no damage when it's taken.

+1


Looking forward to your 1943 industry update.
You guys are the Jedi masters at this, but those are the sort of numbers I’m crunching at the moment.
Only using 10k/day supply for industry expansion sounds like a good target for long term average, but for the first six months of the war too?
Keeping about 1M supply as the minimum to avoid industry hiccups, I’m thinking you can be a bit more aggressive with factory changes during the early war but definitely need to be careful not to crash it.
Especially setting up some late war fighters, as once initially setup they take so long for research factories to repair/use supply.
With the large surplus of supplies you have now, next time would you expand a few more factories earlier?

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Post #: 4464
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/15/2019 12:21:50 PM   
Mike Solli


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jdsrae

Looking forward to your 1943 industry update.
You guys are the Jedi masters at this, but those are the sort of numbers I’m crunching at the moment.
Only using 10k/day supply for industry expansion sounds like a good target for long term average, but for the first six months of the war too?
Keeping about 1M supply as the minimum to avoid industry hiccups, I’m thinking you can be a bit more aggressive with factory changes during the early war but definitely need to be careful not to crash it.
Especially setting up some late war fighters, as once initially setup they take so long for research factories to repair/use supply.
With the large surplus of supplies you have now, next time would you expand a few more factories earlier?


Pax and I are both minimalists. Speaking for myself, I try to produce only what I need, with a small buffer. I HATE having huge numbers of early war aircraft sitting around doing nothing. Think about it. What do you do with a 500 Ki-43-Ic aircraft sitting in the pool when you're using the Ki-43-IIIa? Yeah, some can be used as trainers, but that is primarily a Nate function. I'm currently using all my Nates as trainers and a small number of the Ic, but if I had 500 sitting in the pool, I'd be smacking myself silly.

Late war aircraft are potentially different, but I'll build up numbers of aircraft I intend to use either in normal operations or as Kamikazes. I still try to produce what I need with a buffer.

Here's my method for planning. Let's use the A6M2 as an example. (I'm a logistician for DoD and manage equipment repair parts, and this is one method we use to manage them.) I use a minimum and maximum stock on hand method (minSOH, max SOH). My goal was to have enough airframes on hand so that if KB's fighters got mauled, I could replace them. (Unlikely that would happen and I'd still have all the decks, but that's another discussion.) So, I set the min/max levels to 80/100. If I had at least 100 in the pool, my factories would be off. Once the pool dropped to 80, the factories came back on, until they reached 100. I rarely hit 100, however. There was another important draw on that pool, namely upgrading the front-line Claude units (carrier and land-based) that needed to be upgraded to the Zero. So, the pool was usually low, which was fine with me. (I believe I had 90 factories producing the A6M2.) When the next model was a couple of months from becoming operational (A6M3a), I stopped production on the M2 to draw the pool to as close to 0 as I could. As the A6M3a was built and assigned to KB/MKB, those A6M2s replenished the pool for all the units still using that model. So, in the end, there were probably a couple hundred A6M2 left, but that's inevitable. I just didn't want 500 or 1000 sitting there.

Yeah, using more than 10k a day might be possible, but once the economy starts spiraling downward, it's very difficult and takes a long time to fix. So, I stick with 10k for as long as I must.

Think about it. What do you REALLY need at the start of the war? Oscars and Zeros and some Vals and Kates for KB/MKB. Certain engines that you need more of now. That's about it. Do it in stages. List everything you need/want then prioritize it and do a little at a time. Take our A6M2 again, currently producing 56. I want 90, but increase it by 4 to 60. That uses 1k supply a day for 4 days. And so on.

I also try to make use of engines that already exist. Example: The B5N1 is not very different from the B5N2, especially early war. The N1 uses the Nakajima Hikari engine, which has 99 in the pool. The only other planes that use that engine are the Jean and Susie, neither of which will ever be produced. So, I convert a small factory, say the size 10 Nate factory, to the N1. I'll build out all 99 N1s, saving 1782 HI (99*18). Half price planes! MKB gets the N1 and KB gets the N2 supplemented by the N1 if needed. That will use 1k supply for ~6-7 days.

That's how I do it. The hard part is prioritizing, with so many needs for now and the future. I'll leave the Val as is for now. 24 in the pool with 12 production is sufficient. I want to get the Oscar Ic up to ~90 eventually, in stages, but it is pretty high along with the Zero.

And then there's engines. The Ha-35 needs to have >500 in the pool as soon as possible to accelerate the Zero and Oscar R&D lines. That turns out to be a lot of extra engines needed. At the start of the war, the surplus is 20 engines per month, and that starts dwindling on Day 1. So, that is a very high priority too. The Ha-35 factory is one of the few that I will keep increasing constantly, using 1k supply every day until it is where I want it.

It's a big juggling act. I love it!

One last comment. This is my main reason to take the SRA as soon as possible. As I capture HI/LI and refineries, that increases my supply production. That allows me to increase the speed of my infrastructure growth more quickly.

My motto: "We are not here to battle the Allies. We are here to loot South East Asia!"

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Post #: 4465
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/15/2019 1:20:23 PM   
Lowpe


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There is a lot more to supply consumption than factory and plane building.

I don't think it is that hard to repair a Japanese economy if the early war is going well as you can turn almost everything off or on.

You absolutely cannot recover from holes in your r&d production, fort building, or ship production. Your best chance of having a strong economy for the end game is by having the absolute best fighters and night fighters and balloons for that period.

At some point in 1944 Honshu will be bombed most likely. I agree that having 500 Oscar Ic is silly, but having the ability to produce 150 Oscar IV at the end game isn't all that silly. Or is having a deep pool of engines.

Producing a scant 56 A6M2 expanding to 90 absolutely won't win the early war resources against an Allied opponent that fights forward.

Now the A6M8 and Oscar IV are by no means great fighters, but they serve useful roles for the entire end game.

During the end game, those 500 Oscar Ic might be useless, but they look intimidating to the Allies when your pools are gone and they are guarding rear areas. It would be better if they had a cannon...but heck, I used Nates and was glad to have them against bombers in the end game (I think I even used them as CAP traps too)...after loosing something like 35,000 planes thru the game, Honshu invaded, all plane factories and engine factories reduced to 1.

It definitely is a juggling act though...you don't want to run out of supplies, but you absolutely don't want to run out of fighters, night fighters, FB, dive and torpedo bombers. Level bombers pretty much become ASW as Allied flak is impenetrable.








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Post #: 4466
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/15/2019 1:37:32 PM   
Mike Solli


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I totally agree with you, Lowpe. I'm just talking the first 4-6 months of the war. I'm very frugal at that stage, but definitely produce what I need to have. I didn't talk R&D because supply usage is different. You don't use supply to repair R&D factories, only to expand them. I set aside a certain amount of supply for R&D expansion.

Basically, much of your early actions depend on your opponent. Totally agree here too.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/15/2019 4:57:51 PM   
Mike Solli


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I just sent off the turn. I debated long and hard about the deliberate assault at Chungking. In the end, I decided to go ahead and do it, mainly because of the clear weather forecast for tomorrow. If all the bombers fly, I'm confident Chungking will be mine, with a 2000 point VP harvest. Usually, victories like that don't amount to much in the way of attacker losses. If all doesn't go well, the Chinese will still suffer more than the Japanese. They're just about gone. Either way, the end is near (or at hand).

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Post #: 4468
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/15/2019 7:06:06 PM   
jdsrae


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

My motto: "We are not here to battle the Allies. We are here to loot South East Asia!"


All good until someone like obvert makes you have to do both

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Post #: 4469
RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/15/2019 8:17:58 PM   
rustysi


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quote:

The 2 AKEs and HQ were enough to do the Yamatos and everything else except Nagato & Mutsu's main gun ammo before running out of OP points. More on all that in the replay below.


Not paying enough attention, you had a larger fleet than I realized. Still OK though if you can break it into two groups, one behind the other.

quote:

Their short range isn't difficult to deal with. Use drop tanks and set their range to 10, along with the Jills. No problem and no fatigue unless they fly. Some of the fighter units are set to no drop tanks and 100% CAP, range 0. That way, no real fatigue from CAP trying to fly out 10 hexes. Keep rotating units each day or two and everything is good.


Interesting, very interesting. I could go on with the reference to 'Laugh In', but I don't want to date myself.

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