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RE: Pelton vs 8421

 
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RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/26/2012 4:33:15 PM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
Joined: 4/9/2006
Status: offline 		Turn 75 - 84 Trends
56,000 armaments in pool
SHC OOB turn 75: 7,521,000 Turn 85: 8,144,000
Change: +623,000
GHC OOB turn 75: 3,375,000 Turn 85: 3,556,000
Change: +175,000

SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses
——-—028————–021———07—

GHC - Attacks———Wins—-Losses—–-
————00-—————00———0——–—-

Combat Losses only turns 75 - 85

SHC Loses: 90,000
GHC Loses: 41,000
Ratio: 2.2 to 1

Basicly a sleepy 10 turns. But

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RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/26/2012 4:40:06 PM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
Joined: 4/9/2006
Status: offline 		Turn 85

SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses
——-—011————–010———01—

GHC - Attacks———Wins—-Losses—–-
————01-—————01———0——–—-

8421 starts a general offensive from Velikie Luka north. SHC attacks 11 times and wins 91%, wow really high win %.
Amazingly none of my 9 fully rested and max MP units in reserve mode reacted to any of the battles, bad luck I guess.

If I had to pick and area where I would like the SHC to attack it would be this area for sure, good terrain and I can shorten front quick during mud and summer.

Reserves are being moved to this front.




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< Message edited by Pelton -- 6/26/2012 4:45:51 PM >

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RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/26/2012 4:41:19 PM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
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Status: offline 		Battle results chart for turn 85




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Post #: 153
RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/26/2012 5:30:46 PM   
Seminole


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quote:

Amazingly none of my 9 fully rested and max MP units in reserve mode reacted to any of the battles, bad luck I guess.


From his success rate it looks like he is carefully picking his fights. Reserves won't commit if the odds are already too bad, and also smaller units have a better chance of responding, so you might consider breaking down your reserves to increase their likelihood of seeing action.
I'm sure you're aware of these factors, but figured I'd include them for observers of the AAR:

quote:

A unit in reserve mode will never commit into a battle if the initial combat value (CV) odds ratio at the time the unit checks are over 10 to 1. A defending reserve unit will also never commit into a battle if the odds are less than 1 to 2.

...

Corps sized combat units are less likely to be committed offensively as they add one to the leader initiative roll. Brigades and Regiments are more likely to be committed as they subtract one from the leader initiative roll. In addition, as units in reserve mode from one side are committed to a battle, the chance of further commitments to the battle decline, based on the size of the combat units that have already been committed as follows:
Corps =15
Division = 9
Brigade = 5
Regiment = 3
Using the above values, as additional units attempt to be committed, they check to see if Die(18) is greater than the value of units already committed. If not, the unit is not committed.

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Post #: 154
RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/26/2012 5:43:04 PM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
Joined: 4/9/2006
Status: offline 		The 9 units are 3 divisions broken down.

He took his time building up his forses in this area, 10 turns basicly before starting the offensive.

I have reserves set up as they should be. They have been working (33%ish), but none this turn.



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Post #: 155
RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/26/2012 5:50:32 PM   
Seminole


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Status: offline 		What is the initiative of the leader(s) in this sector?
What die(x) are initiative rolls conducted on? I actually don't see this clearly delineated in the manual, but assumed 10 since the leadership ratings are 1-9.

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Post #: 156
RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/26/2012 5:58:32 PM   
Peltonx


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Status: offline 		No idea on the die rolls ect.

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RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/27/2012 5:56:36 PM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
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Status: offline 		Found the info someone sent me in a PM.

You need to structure your C&C and leaders to maximise initiative, and you need to rotate armoured units in a mix of regiments and divisions. Once I am on the defensive my standard army package is 2 infantry Korps of 4-5 divisions holding an 8-9 hex frontage, with a panzer korps of 4 divs in reserve split into 6 regiments and 2 divisions. This minimises the C&C penalties and maximises the chances of reserve activation.

With a 9 initiative leader in OKH and in 3 of the 4 Army groups, 8 initiative leaders in armies and 7 initiative leaders in PZ korps, you can trigger activations in 35%+ of battles and 80% of those will produce hold results, so 10+ hold results per turn from reserve activations is easily achieveable.

I ran 2 test 1942 campaigns against 115/95 AI for 100 turns i.e. to June1944, the first without reserves, the second with reserves maxed. The front lines in the 2nd test were 20 hexes east of the first test and Soviet casualties were 800k higher.

edit: Anyway, good luck with your 1943 offensive - I would just advise you to keep an eye on your german OOB - once your manpower goes below 3.4 million, offensive operations can tip the attrition balance against you. It nearly cost tarhunnas big time in his game.



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RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/27/2012 9:52:20 PM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
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Status: offline 		Turn 87

23,000 armaments in pool

GHC OOB: 3,589,000 men
Net: + 23,000

This turn:
SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses———%
——-—014————–11———03—–——-78%

Turn 85 to present trend
SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses———%
——-—034————–28———06—–——-82%

All attacks in the AGN area. As new units arrive they are sent north.

AGC and AGS areas are quite for now. I am not moving any units north as I do not beleive they are needed. I have 2 lines of defence with the 2nd being 3 layers of forts. Armys are the basic defensive package. 9 infantry divisions with 3 or 4 panzer division set in reserve mode to counter 33% of all attacks.

8421 keeps up his amazing win %, **** higher then Germans in 41.






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Post #: 159
RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/29/2012 12:46:02 AM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
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Status: offline 		Turn 88

30,000 armaments in pool

GHC OOB: 3,634,000 men
Net: +45,000

SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses———%
——-—016————–14———02—–——-87%

Turn 85 to present trend
SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses———%
——-—050————–42———08—–——-84%

Another good turn for 8421, 87% are wins.

6 more turns until mud hits and I can reset lines for summer. Most of 8421 wins at 2.6 to 2.2 to 1 to get retreats. Allot of good die rolls I guess.

I am not pulling any reserves from the rest of the front. All OKA reserves are headed to area in question and will arrive next turn and be set-up the following turn or 2. Hopefully reaction rolls will get to 35% at some point. Even a regiment would easly turn most of the retreats into a hold.

The area has bucketed the last 2 turns so I only have 2 divisions in reserve mode last 2 turns with zero reactions.

I will have 8 full divisons set up in reserve mode next turn and 13 the following turn, if I am still getting zero reactions per turn something is really really wrong with the game.




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< Message edited by Pelton -- 6/29/2012 12:47:24 AM >

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RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/29/2012 8:51:34 PM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
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Status: offline 		Turn 89

34,000 armaments in pool

GHC OOB: 3,614,000 men
Net: -20,000

SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses———%
——-—015————–12———03—–——-80%

4 hexes are reclaimed.

Turn 85 to present trend
SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses———%
——-—065————–54———11—–——-83%

Some new panzer and infantry units arrive. 5 panzer/mech divisions are broken down into 15 regiments and put in reserve mode this turn. Most are at 50 to 70% Mp's

Another good turn for 8421. Been same basic MO last few turns. He takes/clears 11-12 hexes and I reclaim 4. Lossing about 8 hexes a turn along a 30 hex front. He will be just about through my fort belt when the 6 turns of mud hits in 5 turns. I have several layers of LW units digging behind the front, but unit summer hits they cant keep up.

I am not going to bother putting down fort units until the next to last turn of mud so the combat units can fill up and I can static mode 60 divisions. I need to save 300 APish to reactive them in a single turn. That should save about 15k-20k men a turn.








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RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/30/2012 3:42:36 AM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
Joined: 4/9/2006
Status: offline 		Turn 90

Of the 12 regiments in reserve mode none reacted to any of the 15 battles
0-12.

23 regiments and 1 panzer/mech division in reserve this turn. Lets see how many react next turn. If none react then there can only be 2 reasons why.

38,000 armaments in pool

GHC OOB: 3,591,000 men
Net: -23,000

SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses———%
——-—018————–16———02—–——-89%

I was able to reclaim 4 of the 11 hexes that were lost.

Turn 85 to present trend
SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses———%
——-—083————–70———13—–——-84%

Units in reserve—————-units that reacted———% starting on turn 89.
———-12——————————0———————0%






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RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/30/2012 4:05:32 AM   
notenome

 

Posts: 608
Joined: 12/28/2009
Status: offline 		What's the C&C for the reserve units? If they belong to different armies/AGs then that might be the reason why. Also if the Soviets are using overwhelming odds then the divs won't participate.

< Message edited by notenome -- 6/30/2012 4:06:09 AM >

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Post #: 163
RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/30/2012 10:14:30 AM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
Joined: 4/9/2006
Status: offline 		Turn 91

54,000 armaments in pool

GHC OOB: 3,643,000 men
Net: +52,000

SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses———%
——-—017————–11———06—–——-65%

I was able to reclaim 5 of the 11 hexes that were lost. So the average is about 8 hexes lost per turn.

Turn 85 to present trend
SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses———%
——-—100————–81———19—–——-81%

Reserve units reacted to 35% of the battles, hmm what changed? :)

I think the issue has been lets say "fixed".




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RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/30/2012 10:15:29 AM   
Peltonx


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quote:

ORIGINAL: notenome

What's the C&C for the reserve units? If they belong to different armies/AGs then that might be the reason why. Also if the Soviets are using overwhelming odds then the divs won't participate.



It had nothing to do with any in game issues.

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RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/30/2012 10:32:30 AM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
Joined: 4/9/2006
Status: offline 		Turn 92


62,000 armaments in pool

GHC OOB: 3,645,000 men
Net: +2,000

SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses———%
——-—016————–11———05—–——-68%

GHC - Attacks———Wins—-Losses—–-
————02-—————02———0——–—-

I was able to reclaim 4 of the 11 hexes that were lost.
7 hexes lost.

Turn 85 to present trend
SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses———%
——-—116————–92———24—–——-79%

Looks like things are back to normal . This will be last post until turn 105 when I will start doing 10 turn averages. Mud is setting in in a few turns so there will be basicly no action other then digging new lines, rebalancing AG’s, army’s and reserves.

The rest should put my manpower some place near 3.8 million and jack up armament points.

German OOB increased by about 100,000 men, so the tempo of attack is about right with win % to drop german manpower numbers over time. The biggest advance was 30 miles closer to Berlin for that 10 turn time frame.

The real test will be from turns 105 to 115.

< Message edited by Pelton -- 6/30/2012 10:39:02 AM >

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RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/30/2012 1:25:48 PM   
heliodorus04


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton


quote:

ORIGINAL: notenome

What's the C&C for the reserve units? If they belong to different armies/AGs then that might be the reason why. Also if the Soviets are using overwhelming odds then the divs won't participate.



It had nothing to do with any in game issues.


Can you elaborate? I'm confused.

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Post #: 167
RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/30/2012 4:16:26 PM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
Joined: 4/9/2006
Status: offline 		No, sorry.

I am injoying the game, I have played allot of games into 1943 this being my 5th.

I dont beleive I can win, but a draw is still possible for sure.

My plans over the next 12 turns is to reorganize OKH this way

AGN: 3 armys with 7-9 hex frontage. Each army will have 10-12 infantry divisions with 3 mech units in reserve.
AGC: basicly the same.
AGA: Basicly the same, but with 9-10 hex frontage with 10 infantry and 4 mech
AGB: 2 armys 9-10 hex frontage with 3 mech. A Hun and Rumanian army with 3-5 hex frontage each. I will mix in 2 german infantry and 1 mech per army.

There will be a few extra units which will be put in a central location to be held in reserve(digging).

There also will be a small LW army of diggers under OKH which will dig forts and then FZ will be put on the location once it is to lvl 2 and the LW unit will move to next hex.

During the summer months digging atleast during 43 should be way faster then the advance of Red machine. The only time in the games I have played you cant keep up is during blizzard season.

It looks like I will not beable to keep him from crossing the rivers during 43/44 freeze. Unless things change allot during summer.

The biggest thing right now helping me is the amount of cav/mech/tank units I was able to pocket and destory in the 1942 summer. 8421 wasted 50+ mech units on poorly planned thrusts that resulted in gift pockets for me.

SHC army is basicly a very slow steam roller. I am 100% sure 8421 is rebuilding mech armys, but if he had not wasted 1000's of AP's he would have several very strong mobile army's for the coming summer. 158 total divisions pocketed during 42 summer plus support units. 12 tank Corp(several were guards) and 5 cav corp alone were pocketed early on. I did not keep count of the guard and infantry corp that were pocketed.


< Message edited by Pelton -- 6/30/2012 4:31:26 PM >

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RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/30/2012 7:05:56 PM   
Farfarer61

 

Posts: 713
Joined: 7/21/2004
Status: offline 		Good plan. I have wasted a of of Red Army strength prematurely as well - it is a natural tendency to try an change the strategic initiative earlier than happened. As for Reserve activiation ( or not ), I woudn't get to bent about it. I am pretty calculating when it comes to dealing with the Grigsby dice, but Reseve activation I have consigned it to the "set it up properly, but don't count on it" bin.

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Post #: 169
RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 6/30/2012 7:48:38 PM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
Joined: 4/9/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Farfarer

Good plan. I have wasted a of of Red Army strength prematurely as well - it is a natural tendency to try an change the strategic initiative earlier than happened. As for Reserve activiation ( or not ), I woudn't get to bent about it. I am pretty calculating when it comes to dealing with the Grigsby dice, but Reseve activation I have consigned it to the "set it up properly, but don't count on it" bin.


Its pretty much 100% to get you 25% to 45ish% IF you have it set up just right.

Its a pain in the ass to get it right and then over 15ish turns things can get mixed up. I use the mud season to get things right as they generally get ou t of normal as fighting seasons grind on.


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RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 7/1/2012 9:49:21 PM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
Joined: 4/9/2006
Status: offline 		Because of reoccurring non-game issues I am going to be nice and call this game a draw.

No need to explain, the powers that be know and a few other players that send texts or e-mails. reading this AAR.

No need in wasting my time.

Pelton

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RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 7/1/2012 10:01:24 PM   
juret

 

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Status: offline 		how big is red army now before mud?

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Post #: 172
RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 7/1/2012 11:05:05 PM   
Michael T


Posts: 4443
Joined: 10/22/2006
From: Queensland, Australia.
Status: offline 		We should start a recommended opponents thread. That way we can be fairly sure that if we get in to a game with someone on the list all should be ok.

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Post #: 173
RE: Pelton vs 8421 - 7/2/2012 10:10:11 PM   
Troy6677

 

Posts: 26
Joined: 9/2/2007
Status: offline 		I know What Pelton is talking about because I had the exact same thing happen to me in my last game. No need to further elaborate but my suggestion is playing server based games (especially if you don't know your opponent very well). They are very easy to set up lot's of challenges to choose from and you can be sure the combat result's are true and correct.

Mark

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Post #: 174
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