Slitherine

quote:

Morning Air attack on 24th Port Unit , at 64,97 (Balikpapan)

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 26 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 12
B-24J Liberator x 25
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 6

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
272 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 22 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Morning Air attack on 1st Infantry Regiment, at 64,97 (Balikpapan)

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 38 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 3
B-17E Fortress x 6
B-24D Liberator x 6
B-24D1 Liberator x 7
B-24J Liberator x 61
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 25

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 damaged
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
404 casualties reported
Squads: 15 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 13 destroyed, 25 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 4 (2 destroyed, 2 disabled)

quote:

Ground combat at Balikpapan (64,97)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 20192 troops, 326 guns, 820 vehicles, Assault Value = 808

Defending force 13156 troops, 93 guns, 38 vehicles, Assault Value = 284

Allied adjusted assault: 512

Japanese adjusted defense: 90

Allied assault odds: 5 to 1 (fort level 6)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 5

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), disruption(-), preparation(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1812 casualties reported
Squads: 72 destroyed, 55 disabled
Non Combat: 40 destroyed, 48 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 38 disabled
Guns lost 34 (15 destroyed, 19 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
426 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 38 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Vehicles lost 15 (1 destroyed, 14 disabled)

Assaulting units:
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
124th Cavalry Regiment
711th Tank Battalion
706th Tank Battalion
632nd Tank Destroyer Battalion
2nd USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
96th Infantry Division
148th Field Artillery Battalion
160th USA Base Force
165th USA Base Force
2nd Medium Regiment

Defending units:
7th Ind.Infantry Brigade
454th Ind.Infantry Battalion
83rd Infantry Brigade
1st Infantry Regiment
24th Port Unit
22nd JAAF AF Bn
14th Air Fleet
205th Naval Construction Battalion
206th Naval Const Bn /2
74th Infantry Rgt /1

quote:

Morning Air attack on Jesselton , at 68,86

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 29 NM, estimated altitude 34,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-61-Id Tony x 10
Ki-100-I Tony x 16

Allied aircraft
P-51B Mustang x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-61-Id Tony: 3 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-51B Mustang: 1 destroyed

Morning Air attack on Jesselton , at 68,86

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 12 NM, estimated altitude 32,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-61-Id Tony x 1
Ki-100-I Tony x 3

Allied aircraft
P-51B Mustang x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-61-Id Tony: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 1 destroyed

No Allied losses


Morning Air attack on TF, near Jesselton at 68,86

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 54 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 25
SB2C-3 Helldiver x 23

Allied aircraft losses
SB2C-3 Helldiver: 7 damaged

Japanese Ships
CA Chokai, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CA Atago, Bomb hits 1
DD Arashio, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires

Morning Air attack on TF, near Jesselton at 68,86

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Allied aircraft
SBD-5 Dauntless x 16

Allied aircraft losses
SBD-5 Dauntless: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
CA Chokai, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA Atago, Bomb hits 2, on fire
DD Arare

Morning Air attack on TF, near Jesselton at 68,86

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 57 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Allied aircraft
SB2C-1C Helldiver x 21

Allied aircraft losses
SB2C-1C Helldiver: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
CA Atago, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA Chokai, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Arashio, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Arare

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Jesselton at 68,86

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 66 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 28 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-61-Id Tony x 8
Ki-100-I Tony x 1

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 24
SB2C-3 Helldiver x 22

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-61-Id Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
SB2C-3 Helldiver: 8 damaged

Japanese Ships
DD Arare
CA Chokai, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA Atago, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage

quote:

Morning Air attack on Kendari , at 70,106

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 34 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-61-Id Tony x 1

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 70

Japanese aircraft losses
H8K2-L Emily: 13 destroyed on ground
L2D2 Tabby: 20 destroyed on ground
H8K2 Emily: 5 destroyed on ground
Ki-49-II KAI Helen: 16 destroyed on ground
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 3 destroyed on ground

Morning Air attack on Kendari , at 70,106

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 26 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-61-Id Tony x 1

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 30

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-49-II KAI Helen: 4 destroyed on ground
L2D2 Tabby: 4 destroyed on ground
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 1 destroyed on ground
H8K2-L Emily: 1 destroyed on ground

quote:

Ground combat at Guam (106,95)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 42027 troops, 911 guns, 1458 vehicles, Assault Value = 1479

Defending force 24731 troops, 425 guns, 177 vehicles, Assault Value = 314

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 0

Allied adjusted assault: 524

Japanese adjusted defense: 889

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1011 casualties reported
Squads: 25 destroyed, 86 disabled
Non Combat: 72 destroyed, 97 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 41 disabled
Guns lost 73 (11 destroyed, 62 disabled)
Vehicles lost 146 (119 destroyed, 27 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
467 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 54 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 36 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled
Guns lost 36 (2 destroyed, 34 disabled)
Vehicles lost 76 (8 destroyed, 68 disabled)

quote:

My units are really worn down now though and will need months of rest. Especially the Amphib tank unit and the US IDs are in bad shape.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

So Inspiration is the stat that affects restoring disabled to ready status? It seems Admin affects the labeled Disruption/Fatigue values only. I've always noticed that my split divisions recuperate at different rates between the sub-units, so regularly recombine/re-split, but never figured out which aspects affected the die roll on that.

quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

So splitting the divisions will help with disablements too? Sorry for being dense!

quote:

Bug or was it really really stupid to shock attack and that caused it?

quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Wow, well I got Balikpapan. All for nothing.

Every single oil and every single refinery got trashed. Has anyone ever seen this happen? There is 0 undamaged oil or refinery. 300 of each is disabled.

Bug or was it really really stupid to shock attack and that caused it?

quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Whats next?
______________________________________________________________________________

Thanks to Bullwinkle and Lokasenna I realised I have been putting this off for too long. I need to decide what to do next.

There are currently two scenarios.

1. Erik stays.
2. Erik bugs out with his superstack. Most likely via rail to China.

Number one is a kind of given answer to. We stay and fight with most of what is currently in place. I will probably transfer out one or two of the US Divisions and probably the OZ ones as well.

Number two on the other hand is the interesting one. What do I do then?

Well, first of all I would pull a large portion of the AV out. Probably somewhere around 10.000AV. The rest (about 5k) would liberate Indochina and Malaya. These places are almost completely empty and would probably be fairly easy to secure even using Indians and Chinese mostly.

So what to do with 10.000 AV? Well as I see it its not necessarily a bad thing if Erik bugs out. He will then have to scatter his forces to cover many potential targets. Formosa, Okinawa, Korea, China, Manchuria, Bonins, Kuriles and Hokkaido. I on the other hand can concentrate my 10.000 AV in a single powerful thrust.

So where?

-China? Has its merits. Almost 30.000 Chinese AV is sitting at Chungking waiting for supply. If I could get them that they would probably wipe China clean in a couple of months and end up on the Soviet border. This thrust could easily turn into a slog though. Lots of defensible terrain and sketchy supply.

-Hokkaido/Kuriles? This one is currently looking the most interesting. It would give me excellent bases to pound Japanese industry. Question here would be if I can actually get the troops ashore. And is 6-8k AV enough for that? This would require complete naval supremacy and rely on the navy alone. Bonus with this move is that I think this would be the last thing Erik expects.

-Bonins? Would give me fighter bases within sweep range. But that doesn´t do much unless I have a level 9 AF within normal range of B29s. And I don´t like atolls and SLs. This would actually prevent me from focusing the power into a massive blow. This is my least favorite.

-Okinawa? Certainly a possibility. With no SL I can just land a couple of thousand AV per island and grab it. But is it worth the effort? Do the gains weight up the effort?

-Korea Can be done either by sea or land. But by sea requires Okinawa first. Would be great but is probably not doable. By land would require the complete defeat of Japanese ground forces in China. Would require Chinese forces currently trapped on the Chungking plains. Very unlikely scenario.

-Formosa A landing is already under consideration.

Lots of possible targets to chose from if Erik leaves Malaya/Indochina to its fate. Choices, always choices.

quote:

ORIGINAL: House Stark

Look on the bright side Joc, as the Allies you don't desperately need Balikpapan's fuel, and more importantly, you can afford to dump several hundred thousands of supply there to repair it. While it won't be fully repaired until almost the end of the game, it should be producing a decent amount by the time your 1945 offensives start.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

FWIW, I don't think you should pull that 10k AV out all at once if scenario 2 above comes to pass. Ff you pull it out, you've got to be able to ship it and land it. Can you do so? How far are we talking about shipping that? All of your targets would require sailing around Sumatra and Java and then north. That would take a while.

If he pulls all the way back, is it really more advantageous to you to pull 2/3 of your forces out and leave the conquering of Indochina to the rest rather than marching it all through? I'm not being adversarial here; I'm genuinely curious.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I don't know what you should do. But I'll add one more wrinkle.

Consider 10,000 high-qual AV, with tanks and arty, liberating Chungking, with supply via HK. Then a move on the garrison limits in Manchuria, where he's probably right at the Soviet activation limit. Knock out a few LCUs, and poof! Soviet activation months early.

Or, even if not, when they do activate in August you've got the whole Chines army plus 10,000 AV right there to help them roll through Korea for the ports which carry you across to the HI.

Almost Mongol-like.

quote:

ORIGINAL: House Stark

Look on the bright side Joc, as the Allies you don't desperately need Balikpapan's fuel, and more importantly, you can afford to dump several hundred thousands of supply there to repair it. While it won't be fully repaired until almost the end of the game, it should be producing a decent amount by the time your 1945 offensives start.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

It is 1k per point, and you need at least 12k there to repair both an oil and refinery point each turn. It is worth repairing, IMO. At even 50-100 points you'll be loving the extra fuel.