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RE: 1945! - 11/7/2013 2:22:55 PM   
JocMeister

 

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I´ve tried Nagoya. But its simply not worth it. I lost 18 B29s for 49 LI. Only thing worth hitting with the losses I´m suffering are Osaka/Tokyo. They are the only places with big enough MAN/HI/LI to cause the fires to do damage. Remember that fires have almost zero chance to damage the actual factories. And hitting the factories directly is very, very hard even in daylight. During nighttime its impossible. Or very close too.

I´m bombing from 9k. Any higher and the hits simply drop off to almost nothing. I´m working on getting within Sweep range. But right now it wouldn´t matter even I was close enough. I don´t have the fighters to sweep the HI anyway.

Regarding the pilots I´m not sure you can conserve them. Most of the pilots now flying the B29s have been around since 42-43 flying the 4Es. EXP gain is terrible slow for them. Most have 200-400 Missions but still "only" 70-80 EXP

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 2581
RE: 1945! - 11/7/2013 4:47:11 PM   
House Stark

 

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Although your bomber force is paying a heavy price, you do seem to be doing a lot of damage. From your screenshots it looks like you have disabled 4500 worth of supply production from his HI/LI. Considering that the Japanese home islands only produce ~26,000 supply (maybe a little more if he expanded industry), you've decreased his home islands supply production by almost 20%. That's going to hurt if he tries to rebuild ground units, take on massive amounts of replacement aircraft in his squadrons, or if he has to repair or expand any more factories.

I agree that flying long range night missions into intense opposition with inexperienced bomber crews is a probably a bad idea. Are there any isolated Japanese outposts which you can safely use as live target practice for a couple months to give your new pilots some experience as you rebuild aircraft pools?

You mentioned that the B29-B is coming online soon, but will probably be useless do to its lack of defensive armament. Are there any cities which lack night fighter coverage? If so they could be useful, since with the bigger bomb load even 45exp pilots might be able to hit something if they made it to the target.

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Post #: 2582
RE: 1945! - 11/7/2013 6:32:37 PM   
JocMeister

 

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From: Sweden
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quote:

ORIGINAL: House Stark

Although your bomber force is paying a heavy price, you do seem to be doing a lot of damage. From your screenshots it looks like you have disabled 4500 worth of supply production from his HI/LI. Considering that the Japanese home islands only produce ~26,000 supply (maybe a little more if he expanded industry), you've decreased his home islands supply production by almost 20%. That's going to hurt if he tries to rebuild ground units, take on massive amounts of replacement aircraft in his squadrons, or if he has to repair or expand any more factories.

I agree that flying long range night missions into intense opposition with inexperienced bomber crews is a probably a bad idea. Are there any isolated Japanese outposts which you can safely use as live target practice for a couple months to give your new pilots some experience as you rebuild aircraft pools?

You mentioned that the B29-B is coming online soon, but will probably be useless do to its lack of defensive armament. Are there any cities which lack night fighter coverage? If so they could be useful, since with the bigger bomb load even 45exp pilots might be able to hit something if they made it to the target.


Hey HR!

Yeah, I shouldn´t complain really. The results are good indeed. But I´m worried losing those pilots will in the end make me unable to continue with the bombing campaign.

I actually have a perfect training ground for aspiring pilots...A tiny outpost called Manila... On a more serious note though I will never be able to get them up to near close to the levels the pilots I currently have in the B29s. As I mentioned earlier most of those pilots have 300 missions flown or more and have been around from 42/43. Simply takes to long to get them there.

About the B29Bs I´m not sure I´ll find any targets for them. Perhaps places like Shanghai and in Korea? It seems impossible to hit factories at night but I might give it a go anyway just to have them do something.

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Post #: 2583
RE: 1945! - 11/7/2013 7:23:17 PM   
Lokasenna


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What if you bomb from really, really high on days when the weather forecast is clear or clear-ish, and during the day? If you bomb somewhere he isn't expecting, he probably won't have a CAP up, and if you bomb from high enough you should (theoretically) be above his flak ceiling.

Ok, so Nagoya may not have been a good example. I haven't loaded up the game to check. But I know Nagasaki has quite a lot of industry.

At this point, he won't be repairing any HI/LI. Anything you damage may as well be destroyed, except for the difference in VPs of 20 vs. 2. So if you're just going for damaging his economy, you could bomb during the day and target industries directly rather than relying on fires from Manpower hits, which are harder to get at the smaller Manpower centers like Nagoya even though they still have plenty of factories. What if you targeted, for example, his Ha-45 factories? You may achieve less overall destruction but more effect in his ability to resist as you reduce the number of Franks he's able to produce, etc.

IMO, if you bomb from 9k you're going to take pretty damn heavy losses. There's a reason the historical strat bombing campaign occurred at high altitudes (...right?).

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 2584
RE: 1945! - 11/7/2013 7:30:25 PM   
JocMeister

 

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1st February -44
______________________________________________________________________________

Yet another slow one.

------------------------
Luzon/Manilagrad
------------------------

Damage from bombardments have really taken off now! Lack of supply?

quote:

Night Naval bombardment of Manila at 79,77

Allied Ships
BB Missouri
BB Wisconsin
BB New Jersey
BB Iowa


Japanese ground losses:
567 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 17 destroyed, 42 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 13 (6 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Vehicles lost 20 (5 destroyed, 15 disabled)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 105th Division, at 79,77 (Manila)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 25
B-24J Liberator x 10
B-17F Fortress x 4
B-24D Liberator x 3
B-24D1 Liberator x 3
B-24J Liberator x 91
B-25D1 Mitchell x 3
B-25G Mitchell x 10
B-25H Mitchell x 31
B-25J1 Mitchell x 4
B-25J11 Mitchell x 5
P-38L Lightning x 15
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 26
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 7
PBJ-1H Mitchell x 7


Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 3 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 2 damaged
B-17F Fortress: 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 18 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 8 damaged
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 1 damaged
PBJ-1D Mitchell: 2 damaged
PBJ-1H Mitchell: 4 damaged


Japanese ground losses:
286 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 25 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 58 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 13 (1 destroyed, 12 disabled)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 7049 troops, 693 guns, 462 vehicles, Assault Value = 8023

Defending force 117298 troops, 1525 guns, 1060 vehicles, Assault Value = 2816

Japanese ground losses:
148 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 4 disabled


Allied ground losses:
8 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 18 (4 destroyed, 14 disabled)
Vehicles lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)




Despite the damage the Jap defenders increase their RAW AV with 2 while the allied AV goes +170. The real effect on the defenders will hopefully be in disruption though and not AV.

Big day tomorrow. Time for another attack. Everything goes after Manila. B29s will bomb MAN burning supply, ALL the BBs will bombard and every bomber in range will attack... fingers crossed. I have high hopes we can drop the forts and really start inflicting some damage!

An interesting side notification here is that looking at the AC losses Erik has lost a lot of Franks in OPS losses this turn. I´m guessing he has flown them in to Luzon to try something. Put LRCAP up over the BBs and increased CAP everywhere. Put everything on sweep over Manila. If I´m right there will be a lot of planes falling out of the sky tomorrow over Manila.

Pulled the CVs back a bit too just in case. My strike package is a bit beat up.

------------------------
Fletcher raids
------------------------

Goes well but we only sink small ships. Some 10 Jap ships sunk. Most AKLs and Es.

Well...thats it. I hope I got some positive news regarding Manila shortly...


< Message edited by JocMeister -- 11/7/2013 8:33:23 PM >

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Post #: 2585
RE: 1945! - 11/7/2013 7:36:13 PM   
ny59giants


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FP training or warships goes NavS and then either ASW or Recon for their second. How are they for your BBs going into Manila?? I set them for night with the target as Manila and Recon even if out of range when set.

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Post #: 2586
RE: 1945! - 11/7/2013 7:40:37 PM   
JocMeister

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

FP training or warships goes NavS and then either ASW or Recon for their second. How are they for your BBs going into Manila?? I set them for night with the target as Manila and Recon even if out of range when set.


Recon in the 60ish. Letting them train whenever I get a chance too. Night recon is set for Manila!

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Post #: 2587
RE: 1945! - 11/7/2013 8:10:33 PM   
JocMeister

 

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Manila 5th attack
______________________________________________________________________________

Well, allied losses were a lot heavier than I wished for... But Manila is starting to crack!

quote:


Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 218119 troops, 3742 guns, 6397 vehicles, Assault Value = 8111

Defending force 115599 troops, 1511 guns, 1048 vehicles, Assault Value = 2763

Allied adjusted assault: 3060

Japanese adjusted defense: 2955

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 3

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
8632 casualties reported
Squads: 102 destroyed, 728 disabled
Non Combat: 18 destroyed, 211 disabled
Engineers: 44 destroyed, 169 disabled
Guns lost 346 (46 destroyed, 300 disabled)
Vehicles lost 49 (6 destroyed, 43 disabled)
Units destroyed 1


Allied ground losses:
8225 casualties reported
Squads: 49 destroyed, 906 disabled
Non Combat: 15 destroyed, 235 disabled
Engineers: 9 destroyed, 154 disabled
Guns lost 137 (6 destroyed, 131 disabled)
Vehicles lost 406 (38 destroyed, 368 disabled)


Japanese adjusted AV has dropped from almost 13.000 to 3000 from the last attack. If that is not progress I don´t know what is!

More good news is 6th and 107th Jap IDs are completely wrecked together with some smaller BDEs. Only the 8th and 56th ID still seems to be holding. Looks like about 1000 AV was shaved off both sides with this attack. But the Japanese defenders are starting to run out of AV...

The big question is how wrecked the allied troops are. How many days of rest this time? I predict 8-10. The heavy allied losses was quite unexpected actually. Had hoped for half what I suffered.




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 2588
RE: 1945! - 11/7/2013 9:22:22 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Urban plus forts makes the attack numbers really, really big.

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Post #: 2589
RE: 1945! - 11/8/2013 5:06:08 AM   
JeffroK


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

What if you bomb from really, really high on days when the weather forecast is clear or clear-ish, and during the day? If you bomb somewhere he isn't expecting, he probably won't have a CAP up, and if you bomb from high enough you should (theoretically) be above his flak ceiling.

Ok, so Nagoya may not have been a good example. I haven't loaded up the game to check. But I know Nagasaki has quite a lot of industry.

At this point, he won't be repairing any HI/LI. Anything you damage may as well be destroyed, except for the difference in VPs of 20 vs. 2. So if you're just going for damaging his economy, you could bomb during the day and target industries directly rather than relying on fires from Manpower hits, which are harder to get at the smaller Manpower centers like Nagoya even though they still have plenty of factories. What if you targeted, for example, his Ha-45 factories? You may achieve less overall destruction but more effect in his ability to resist as you reduce the number of Franks he's able to produce, etc.

IMO, if you bomb from 9k you're going to take pretty damn heavy losses. There's a reason the historical strat bombing campaign occurred at high altitudes (...right?).

Wrong, the USAAF finally begans seeing results when Curtis LeMay pushed through the low level, night fire bombing campaign.

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Post #: 2590
RE: 1945! - 11/8/2013 5:13:29 AM   
witpqs


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I think he was talking about flak.

You are right about the bombing results. High altitude did not work well over Japan because of the Jet Stream, which was unknown when the campaign started.

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Post #: 2591
RE: 1945! - 11/8/2013 7:09:50 AM   
JocMeister

 

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From: Sweden
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

What if you bomb from really, really high on days when the weather forecast is clear or clear-ish, and during the day? If you bomb somewhere he isn't expecting, he probably won't have a CAP up, and if you bomb from high enough you should (theoretically) be above his flak ceiling.

Ok, so Nagoya may not have been a good example. I haven't loaded up the game to check. But I know Nagasaki has quite a lot of industry.

At this point, he won't be repairing any HI/LI. Anything you damage may as well be destroyed, except for the difference in VPs of 20 vs. 2. So if you're just going for damaging his economy, you could bomb during the day and target industries directly rather than relying on fires from Manpower hits, which are harder to get at the smaller Manpower centers like Nagoya even though they still have plenty of factories. What if you targeted, for example, his Ha-45 factories? You may achieve less overall destruction but more effect in his ability to resist as you reduce the number of Franks he's able to produce, etc.

IMO, if you bomb from 9k you're going to take pretty damn heavy losses. There's a reason the historical strat bombing campaign occurred at high altitudes (...right?).


Sorry Lokasenna. Missed your post last night and didn´t see it until Jeff quoted you this morning.

We are playing with advanced weather off so I have no way of predicting it! I have tried some extreme high altitude bombings in sandbox. You simply don´t hit anything from 30k. I tried over 10 times with 200 B29s and not one hit was scored. And thats trying to hit MAN. Specific factories are very, very hard to hit even in daylight at 9k. Also it seems that despite the CAP being down at 10k and just a 10 minute warning they could get up to the bombers at 30k on several occasion causing massive losses to the B29s.

This might be the only use for the "B" model though but at night. Max alt at night and hope for a fluke hit!

Going at day simply isn´t an option. The results would be the same as over Manila with the accidental strike that wiped out almost 100 4Es. I would probably destroy the entire B29 force in just a day.

I´ve tried it a lot in sandbox and the only viable targets looking at the results are the MAN/HI/LI heavy Tokyo and Osaka. I think it because it simply so much of it in those two places. Anything outside those places simply doesn´t cause enough damage (at night). Not sure why but possibly something to do in which way the damage is calculated.

Its quite boring having your options so limited by the game. Perhaps in a couple of months if I can get within sweep range and my fighter pools have recovered enough a short (2-3 days) sweep offensive over the HI might open a window for the B29s to try a daylight attack. I find that quite unlikely though as I don´t think the Japanese air force will collapse in this game.

But who knows. Anything can happen!

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 2592
RE: 1945! - 11/8/2013 7:14:06 AM   
JocMeister

 

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From: Sweden
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As I understand it based on very limited knowledge what JeffK and witpgs says is true. The B29s had very limited success early on. LeMay then ordered them to go to low ALT. According to one B29 pilot they were so low that the Jap heavy AA couldn´t hit them because they couldn´t set their fuses for that low alt. Fighters wasn´t an issue as they couldn´t catch the bombers anyway so they ditched their guns too.

Going lower meant they spent less fuel giving room for more bombs. This is when results started to show. I guess this is what the different B29 models in the game is representing?

An interesting tidbit: During the firebombing of Tokyo one of the B29s pilots said the upwinds caused by the fires caused the worst turbulence he have EVER encountered and he saw at least on B29 being broken into bits by that turbulence. Talk about shaky ride!

< Message edited by JocMeister -- 11/8/2013 8:19:04 AM >

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Post #: 2593
RE: 1945! - 11/8/2013 9:57:58 AM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 8262
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
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2nd February -44
______________________________________________________________________________

Manila was obviously the main show.

------------------------
Manilagrad
------------------------

Allied troops obviously took a beating. But FAT/DIS wasn´t as bad as last time. Its in the 40s with the units worst off. I could perhaps go as early as in 5-6 days depending on recovery.

The supply modifier on the Japanese troops were encouraging. Looks like the bombardments are burning supply faster than Erik can get it there. Flak was almost non existant. I´m still up at 12k but I don´t dare drop the altitude incase he suddenly can get supply to flow again.

A ground bombardment is ordered for tomorrow to gauge the damage done to the Japanese troops. With the adjusted AV dropped from 13k to 3k between the attacks it shows that the bombardments are taking its toll on the defenders.

------------------------
Java
------------------------

We secured a second base here. All looks abandoned. I´m heading straight for Soerabaja. I want the repairyard ASAP.

------------------------
Indochina/Thailand
------------------------

Still moving towards the next set of objectives. Looks like Erik is abandoning Hanoi and Haiphong. Probably a smart move considering the clear hexes. Allied troops will probably push due East from here and then south before reaching Nanning. The follow up forces will deal with Nanning. If an opportunity shows I will go straight North towards the Chinese troops though.

------------------------
Bomber squadron resize
------------------------

I don´t know if I should laugh or cry. The B29 squadrons resized from 7 or 10 to 15 planes. The rest from 12/16 to 24. Thats really nice except it would require hundreds of airplanes that has never been available. I will never be able to fill those squadrons out. Not a chance. Not even in 46.

Really, really slow and boring period in the game right now. Waiting, waiting and more waiting. I´ve started preparing for the March amphibious OPS but there is only so much to prepare. Mainly just moving supply, engineers and and fuel around. Boring!


< Message edited by JocMeister -- 11/8/2013 11:16:50 AM >

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Post #: 2594
RE: 1945! - 11/8/2013 11:17:22 AM   
JeffroK


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

As I understand it based on very limited knowledge what JeffK and witpgs says is true. The B29s had very limited success early on. LeMay then ordered them to go to low ALT. According to one B29 pilot they were so low that the Jap heavy AA couldn´t hit them because they couldn´t set their fuses for that low alt. Fighters wasn´t an issue as they couldn´t catch the bombers anyway so they ditched their guns too.

Going lower meant they spent less fuel giving room for more bombs. This is when results started to show. I guess this is what the different B29 models in the game is representing?

An interesting tidbit: During the firebombing of Tokyo one of the B29s pilots said the upwinds caused by the fires caused the worst turbulence he have EVER encountered and he saw at least on B29 being broken into bits by that turbulence. Talk about shaky ride!

I'll find the link, but the previous commander of 21 Air Force (or was it 20 AF) continually pushed for the same tactic, but before he could put it in place LeMay and substantial reinforcements arrived so he was shunted back to the USA and LeMay got all of the credit

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Post #: 2595
RE: 1945! - 11/8/2013 11:19:14 AM   
JeffroK


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From the unfortunately static Hyperwar site;
http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/AAF/Hansell/index.html

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Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

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Post #: 2596
RE: 1945! - 11/8/2013 2:56:44 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

According to one B29 pilot they were so low that the Jap heavy AA couldn´t hit them because they couldn´t set their fuses for that low alt. Fighters wasn´t an issue as they couldn´t catch the bombers anyway so they ditched their guns too.


I might propose that the game mechanics do not model this behavior. My experience is that the algorithms break down effectiveness in bands starting with some definition of the lowest band and extending upwards to maximum effective range. So, far my experience is the lower you go the more deadly the flak ...

_____________________________

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

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Post #: 2597
RE: 1945! - 11/8/2013 4:42:10 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

What if you bomb from really, really high on days when the weather forecast is clear or clear-ish, and during the day? If you bomb somewhere he isn't expecting, he probably won't have a CAP up, and if you bomb from high enough you should (theoretically) be above his flak ceiling.

Ok, so Nagoya may not have been a good example. I haven't loaded up the game to check. But I know Nagasaki has quite a lot of industry.

At this point, he won't be repairing any HI/LI. Anything you damage may as well be destroyed, except for the difference in VPs of 20 vs. 2. So if you're just going for damaging his economy, you could bomb during the day and target industries directly rather than relying on fires from Manpower hits, which are harder to get at the smaller Manpower centers like Nagoya even though they still have plenty of factories. What if you targeted, for example, his Ha-45 factories? You may achieve less overall destruction but more effect in his ability to resist as you reduce the number of Franks he's able to produce, etc.

IMO, if you bomb from 9k you're going to take pretty damn heavy losses. There's a reason the historical strat bombing campaign occurred at high altitudes (...right?).


Sorry Lokasenna. Missed your post last night and didn´t see it until Jeff quoted you this morning.

We are playing with advanced weather off so I have no way of predicting it! I have tried some extreme high altitude bombings in sandbox. You simply don´t hit anything from 30k. I tried over 10 times with 200 B29s and not one hit was scored. And thats trying to hit MAN. Specific factories are very, very hard to hit even in daylight at 9k. Also it seems that despite the CAP being down at 10k and just a 10 minute warning they could get up to the bombers at 30k on several occasion causing massive losses to the B29s.

This might be the only use for the "B" model though but at night. Max alt at night and hope for a fluke hit!

Going at day simply isn´t an option. The results would be the same as over Manila with the accidental strike that wiped out almost 100 4Es. I would probably destroy the entire B29 force in just a day.

I´ve tried it a lot in sandbox and the only viable targets looking at the results are the MAN/HI/LI heavy Tokyo and Osaka. I think it because it simply so much of it in those two places. Anything outside those places simply doesn´t cause enough damage (at night). Not sure why but possibly something to do in which way the damage is calculated.

Its quite boring having your options so limited by the game. Perhaps in a couple of months if I can get within sweep range and my fighter pools have recovered enough a short (2-3 days) sweep offensive over the HI might open a window for the B29s to try a daylight attack. I find that quite unlikely though as I don´t think the Japanese air force will collapse in this game.

But who knows. Anything can happen!



Does he really have a CAP up everywhere that's worth hitting? It may seem like I'm pushing you on this, but I really think there are more options and possibly some viable day bombing targets, or even unopposed night bombing targets. Or maybe you should just hold off for some weeks and then hit him out of the blue, somewhere you haven't hit him before.

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 2598
RE: 1945! - 11/8/2013 5:26:48 PM   
JocMeister

 

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From: Sweden
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
Does he really have a CAP up everywhere that's worth hitting? It may seem like I'm pushing you on this, but I really think there are more options and possibly some viable day bombing targets, or even unopposed night bombing targets. Or maybe you should just hold off for some weeks and then hit him out of the blue, somewhere you haven't hit him before.


Probably not! But do I dare take a chance and lose a month or two worth of replacements? The option is there of course. But I just don´t dare to take the chance!

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Post #: 2599
RE: 1945! - 11/8/2013 6:31:06 PM   
Lokasenna


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Do you have any long range recon to figure out where he might be basing fighters? Not that he couldn't LRCAP something, but if you can establish where he's got his fighters based you can figure out where there might be weak points that are vulnerable to bombing, with fewer losses to your pilots... Just a thought. You're down to less than 10 months .

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Post #: 2600
RE: 1945! - 11/8/2013 6:37:27 PM   
JocMeister

 

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From: Sweden
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Oh, his fighters are on all bases alright. But I doubt they are all on CAP. Some are probably training.

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Post #: 2601
RE: 1945! - 11/8/2013 7:39:41 PM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 8262
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From: Sweden
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3rd-4th February -44
______________________________________________________________________________

Still very boring turns.

------------------------
Manilagrad
------------------------

We are starting to get some spectacular results from the bombardments. Here are some gems.

quote:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Manila at 79,77

Allied Ships
BB Alabama
BB Massachusetts
BB Indiana
BB South Dakota


Japanese ground losses:
607 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 20 disabled
Non Combat: 23 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 17 (13 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Vehicles lost 5 (3 destroyed, 2 disabled)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 102nd Division, at 79,77 (Manila)

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 46
Liberator GR.VI x 23
B-24J Liberator x 5
B-17E Fortress x 7
B-17F Fortress x 7
B-24D Liberator x 6
B-24D1 Liberator x 9
B-24J Liberator x 151
B-25D1 Mitchell x 3
B-25G Mitchell x 11
B-25H Mitchell x 43
B-25J1 Mitchell x 19
B-25J11 Mitchell x 6
P-38J Lightning x 16
P-38L Lightning x 46
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 30
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 11
PBJ-1H Mitchell x 3
PBJ-1J Mitchell x 3


Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 10 damaged
Liberator GR.VI: 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 1 damaged
B-17F Fortress: 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 14 damaged
B-25G Mitchell: 1 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 10 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 1 damaged
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 1 damaged
PBJ-1H Mitchell: 1 damaged
PBJ-1J Mitchell: 1 damaged


Japanese ground losses:
700 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 30 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 71 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 12 (1 destroyed, 11 disabled)
Vehicles lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled
)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 7033 troops, 693 guns, 462 vehicles, Assault Value = 7323

Defending force 105493 troops, 1455 guns, 1036 vehicles, Assault Value = 1940

Japanese ground losses:
353 casualties reported
Squads: 18 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Vehicles lost 5 (2 destroyed, 3 disabled)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Manila , at 79,77

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 24
Liberator GR.VI x 17
B-17F Fortress x 3
B-24D Liberator x 3
B-24D1 Liberator x 12
B-24J Liberator x 145
B-25D1 Mitchell x 3
B-25G Mitchell x 6
B-25H Mitchell x 52
B-25J1 Mitchell x 17
B-25J11 Mitchell x 14
P-38J Lightning x 32
P-38L Lightning x 83
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 14
PBJ-1H Mitchell x 10
PBJ-1J Mitchell x 3


Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 4 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 19 damaged
B-25G Mitchell: 1 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 14 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 1 damaged
PBJ-1H Mitchell: 5 damaged
PBJ-1J Mitchell: 1 damaged


Japanese ground losses:
795 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 21 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 125 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Guns lost 16 (1 destroyed, 15 disabled)




Things are looking real good. After the last attack the raw AV ratio is 1:3,78 compared to 1:2,7 before the attack. Can´t complain about that. Still, the heavy allied losses are worrisome. But we are recovering nicely, about 150 AV per turn while the Japanese are losing about 30 per day. So we are getting there. Its just taking a bit longer then I wanted...

------------------------
Indochina
------------------------

We will reach Hanoi tomorrow. Looks empty!

Again...thats it. No more to report.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by JocMeister -- 11/8/2013 9:07:26 PM >

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 2602
RE: 1945! - 11/9/2013 9:23:55 AM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 8262
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline
Manilagrad
______________________________________________________________________________

Here is the latest news from what actually turned out to be a Japanese Stalingrad. As can be seen in the screenshot Japanese AV has dropped again (-79) while Allied AV increased (+192)

Fatigue is down to 27 on the most fatigued unit. Next attack in about 4 days. This time against level two forts (hopefully!)

Out of curiosity (and boredom) I decided to track down Japanese losses at Manilagrad. I didn´t bother to look at the smaller units but here is a list of Japanese Divisions that are already wrecked or are about to.

Already wrecked at Manila:
6th ID
102nd ID
105th ID
107th ID
4th Tank division

About to be wrecked:
56th ID (50%)
8th ID (50%)
1st Tank Division (30%)

Thats 8 divisions minimum. I think I have missed one or two from the first attack. Against this are 10 Allied divisions. Considering we have about the same number of divisions and Erik have had the benefit of forts and terrain we have done very well.

Together with the Superstack outside Tavoy this will have cut the Japanese OOB with 22 IDs if I´ve counted correctly. That has to be devastating for Erik ability to defend what he has left.

I´m not sure it was the best of moves for Erik to reinforce Manila as heavily as he has done. He would probably have made a better stand somewhere that wasn´t so close to allied main facilities. I have 5 level 9 AF within range of Manila. Erik on the other hand can´t really support Luzon once he lost his only level 9 AF. I´m not going to give away anything to you Japanese players reading this () but I know exactly where I would have put at least 5 of those 8 divisions instead! Either somewhere else or he should have built up inland Luzon with good airfields. There are two level 9 potential AFs outside naval gun range. Now he only had Manila at level 9 and Clark at level 8. That turned out to be the achilles heel of Luzon. For once I was right about something!

Stackinglimits
I´m starting to think not agreeing to stackinglimits earlier may have been a mistake on my part. If we had, I think I could have overcome this a lot faster. I could simply have overstacked like crazy eating the supply penalty (I have 3 million on Luzon so no problem). And/or rotated units in and out. Erik on the other hand couldn´t have built these superstacks which he has done so far. Good lesson for my other game with SL.

My reasoning behind not wanting to switch to SL in early 43 is that I also wanted to reap the benefit of doing "deathstars". Erik did this in China and massed a 350.000 army just taking base after base in China. I thought I would just do the same against him later on. But it doesn´t work like that. Because the Chinese sucks even more than the Japanese do. And in China I had zero supply across the board. Erik has (so far) been able to keep his units in supply and he proved in Burma that with supply and defensive terrain all you need is about 1/3rd of allied AV on the defensive to hold. Besides advancing as the allies is just as much about prepping and sea lift as numbers. Taking a deathstar and moving it from base to base with Amphibious landings simply takes too long.

I think with SL the allied ability to burn almost unlimited supply will really start to shine.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by JocMeister -- 11/9/2013 10:35:13 AM >

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 2603
RE: 1945! - 11/9/2013 1:09:19 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline
22 Divisions is a lot! Taking replacements for surviving LCU's, and buying LCU's and having them take replacements takes a whole lot of supplies. I believe the Moose commented early in this discussion of exactly how much stuff has to go into each division replaced. Plus drawing aircraft replacements from the pool requires supply. Eventually this has to put a strain on the IJ's ability to resist.

The ahistorical IJ aircraft OOB I suspect has come to some cost, and this cost is being balanced in other areas. Plus Strat bombing and attacking ports/airfield/airbases consumes supply. I also suspect that some dramatic tipping point will be reached where resistance will collapse due to a lack of supplies. At the very least I might suggest that the IJ are making some strategic decisions regarding supplies. At least in my last game at this point ..the IJ complained a whole heck of a lot that supplies were borked

I might suggest that The battle in Manila is such an example. The AV was drastically affected once the (-) supply indicator affected combat.

_____________________________

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

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Post #: 2604
RE: 1945! - 11/9/2013 1:39:08 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline
In the beginning of the war, as an Allied player, I don't care about how many hits my AF takes at Manila and Singapore. Its the number of supply hits that worries me. Having 90 bombers get double digit supply hits hurt.

_____________________________


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Post #: 2605
RE: 1945! - 11/9/2013 3:03:34 PM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 8262
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
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Interestingly enough Erik seems to have taken a keen interest in supply expenditure lately. He wrote this in another AAR recently. This he said during a discussion on how much supply planes use:
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
All from Alfred's Logistics guide. Amazing how we can play through years of game and not really know these basics! Unless we have to, like I do now.


It was Pax actually who made a great post about the cost of rebuilding an ID.

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
Now, the player has choices as to how and most especially WHEN to spend this HI. The easiest way to look at this is in 100K HI chunks. 100K HI will 'buy' you about 2800 1E ac equivalents or about 1 ID or 1 accelerated CV. OK, nice and easy.


So those 20ish divisions could have built him 56000 fighters. Wonder how much supply it will cost on top of that to get the IDs back to strength? I know the Chinese Corps gurgle supply when the respawn.

As Michael says the constant bombings of Manila should burn supply like crazy. Recently flak lessened a bit and the (-) supply modifier seems a good indication I´m burning his supply faster than he can get it to Luzon.

It will be really interesting to see what happens when the dormant Japanese army in China starts moving around and get into combat...

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 2606
RE: 1945! - 11/9/2013 3:27:25 PM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 8262
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline
Japanese divisions - known status
______________________________________________________________________________

Manila
1st Tank Division - 30% strenght
4th Tank division - wrecked
6th ID - wrecked
8th ID -50% strenght
56th ID -60% strenght
102nd ID - wrecked
105th ID - wrecked
107th ID - wrecked


Outside Tavoy
2nd Tank Division - Wrecked
2nd ID - Wrecked
2nd Guards ID - Wrecked

3rd Tank division - Destroyed
5th ID - Wrecked
16th ID - Wrecked
18th ID - Wrecked
21st ID - Wrecked
33rd ID - Wrecked
38th ID - Wrecked
39th ID - Wrecked
55th ID - Wrecked


Cam Ranh Bay (completely cut off)
9th ID - 100% strenght
4th ID - 100% strenght


Unknown
48th ID - 100% strength. Last seen at Bangkok. Probably in China now.


< Message edited by JocMeister -- 11/9/2013 6:06:10 PM >

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Post #: 2607
RE: 1945! - 11/9/2013 7:05:29 PM   
Spidery

 

Posts: 1821
Joined: 10/6/2012
From: Hampshire, UK
Status: offline
quote:

Wonder how much supply it will cost on top of that to get the IDs back to strength?


About 300,000

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 2608
RE: 1945! - 11/10/2013 6:52:39 AM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 8262
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Spidery
About 300,000


Thanks, I´m assuming here that 300.000 supply for the Japanese player at this stage is quite a large amount?

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Post #: 2609
RE: 1945! - 11/10/2013 7:17:40 AM   
Quixote


Posts: 773
Joined: 8/14/2008
From: Maryland
Status: offline
You assume correctly, sir.

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