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RE: Defending Mother Russia

 
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RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/19/2012 5:10:14 PM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		Saper and I have now completed turn 6 but I have been too busy to post. I’ll do some catching up now.

T5 North.

Below are the screen shots of the situation in the North before (but after recon) and after my moves. As you can see Saper did not make any big progress here this turn. But I was worried that he had a few of his panzer/motorized gassed up. In addition to the fully gassed and ½ way gassed motorized circled in blue 94 bombers flew supply to the motorized circled in red. Accordingly, I retreated back to the Luga. The bigger decision was what to do with my units lined up along the Shelon. Leave them where they are or retreat them to the river lines south of Lake Ilmen. These were some of my best units in the area, they were fortified and they there were in favorable terrain behind a river. I knew they were in danger of encirclement if I left them where they were but I figured if I didn’t move them and Saper didn’t attack them that was good and if he did attack them at least they could defend themselves better than my units along the Luga and it would delay the assault on the Luga for a turn or two. So as you can see I left them. I’ll let you know how that turned out.





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< Message edited by Harrybanana -- 11/19/2012 5:19:22 PM >

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Post #: 31
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/19/2012 5:11:10 PM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T5 North After moves




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Post #: 32
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/19/2012 5:12:41 PM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T5 Centre

Below are the screenshots of the action in the centre. Rather than attempting to encircle my units lined up along the Dnepr Saper chose instead to advance into the area I had largely vacated in the landbridge. You can see from the first screenshot that, thanks to a large number of airsupply missions, Saper has several panzer/motorized units in fair to excellent supply of fuel. So I gave the 2 regiments of the 14th motorized (circled in red) a bloody nose and then I ran





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Post #: 33
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/19/2012 5:13:39 PM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T5 Centre after my moves.




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Post #: 34
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/19/2012 5:14:52 PM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T5 South

My worries about my position in the South were unfounded as Saper didn’t even try to cross the Dnepr. Instead he contented himself with a drive towards D-Town and expanding the size of the area he controls on the west bank of the river. The most worrisome unit is, of course, the Wiking SS motorized circled in red. There was no way I could hold the entire river line so I abandoned most of it in effort to hold the southern portion of it.





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Post #: 35
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/19/2012 5:15:50 PM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T5 South After My Moves




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Post #: 36
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/21/2012 7:01:18 PM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		To all the devoted followers of this AAR (all 5 of you):

Saper is very quick at returning turns and I am very busy so I have not been able to keep this AAR current. Saper has just sent me his turn 8 and so I have the choice of either playing my turn or else keeping you all informed of the progress of the war. An easy choice for me. I'll post unpdates as soon as I can. In the meantime enjoy Saper's AAR which I assume (because I am slow at returning turns) is current.

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Post #: 37
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/21/2012 7:50:55 PM   
schascha


Posts: 295
Joined: 1/3/2012
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana
I'll post unpdates as soon as I can.



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Post #: 38
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 6:35:54 AM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T6 North

Below are the before and after pictures of the situation in the North. As you can see Saper elected to deal with my units along the Shelon and almost succeeded in isolating them. Another 4 of my best units (and 1 not so good) will soon be bagged. The good news is that it did delay his attack towards Leningrad and his panzer/motorized units are now mostly out of gas. So did I make a mistake in not retreating these units last turn or not?





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Post #: 39
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 6:37:18 AM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T6 Centre Before Moves

My several hex retreat last turn was not enough to prevent Saper from surrounding a few more units in the Centre. The unit in Smolensk was expected, the others not so much. Though I’m not terribly surprised either.





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Post #: 40
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 6:38:57 AM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T6 Centre After Moves

I free my units (temporarily) and retreat some more, what else can I do. I would like to have attacked the 10 strength panzer, but not enough units in range





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Post #: 41
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 6:40:28 AM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T6 South Before Moves

The crossing of the Dnepr by the SS Motorized circled in red caught me by surprise. Luckily I had enough units in the area with enough mobility to deal with this threat





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Post #: 42
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 6:42:16 AM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		As the Russians I like to get at least 3:2 odds on attack. My experience is that if I can get these odds and there is no reserve commitment I will win a high percentage of the time. How high I’m not sure as I’ve never kept track but I would say around 90% of the time with 1:1 and 80% even after 2:1 kicks in. Have others experienced similar results?

I did the math and calculated that I could get 3:2 odds on both the DR SS Mot. (the unit on the west side of the river) and on the Wiking SS Mot (the unit on the east bank). My attack on the DR Mot was successful, barely, but instead of retreating into the open hex to the west as expected it retreated east across the major river to stack with the Wiking Mot. Does anyone understand the retreat rules? If so could you please explain them to me. In any event this reduced my attack to a 1:1 which, as you can see below, was successful. But believe me I had some anxious moments.





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Post #: 43
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 6:44:46 AM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		Saper’s very narrow advance in the Centre gives my cavalry (circled in red) an opportunity to attempt a raid on his rail lines. If you’ve been reading Saper’s AAR you already know how it turned out




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RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 7:08:35 AM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T7 North After my moves. Only a limited advance by Saper this turn.






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< Message edited by Harrybanana -- 11/28/2012 7:12:59 AM >

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Post #: 45
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 7:14:28 AM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T7 Centre before most of my moves.

Saper’s panzers and motorized charged SE this turn. Note that despite the great distances travelled and my cutting of his rail lines, 2 of Saper’s motorized (circled) have lots of gas due to supply airlifts





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< Message edited by Harrybanana -- 11/28/2012 7:15:09 AM >

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Post #: 46
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 7:16:16 AM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		A wide angle view of the Centre after my moves. Note the destroyed rail lines marked with the red Xs. This may have helped, but not nearly enough




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RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 7:17:39 AM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T7 South after my moves




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Post #: 48
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 10:06:42 AM   
schascha


Posts: 295
Joined: 1/3/2012
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

As the Russians I like to get at least 3:2 odds on attack. My experience is that if I can get these odds and there is no reserve commitment I will win a high percentage of the time. How high I’m not sure as I’ve never kept track but I would say around 90% of the time with 1:1 and 80% even after 2:1 kicks in. Have others experienced similar results?


Personaly I like 1(+2):1 against the panzers and 1(+3):1 against infantry. But before to take my decision, I do some bomb on the unit and this HQ (if Iknow it), I put the combat screen on 7 to know how many and which units I have killed, disrupted. I have very good results with this method


< Message edited by schascha -- 11/28/2012 10:10:18 AM >

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Post #: 49
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 2:22:21 PM   
timmyab

 

Posts: 2044
Joined: 12/14/2010
From: Bristol, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana
As the Russians I like to get at least 3:2 odds on attack. My experience is that if I can get these odds and there is no reserve commitment I will win a high percentage of the time. How high I’m not sure as I’ve never kept track but I would say around 90% of the time with 1:1 and 80% even after 2:1 kicks in. Have others experienced similar results?

The game favors the attacker too much.Ignoring the 1:1 rule, I'd say 90% retreats at 2:1 initial CV is pretty close to my experience as well.This is a bit much even for the Germans but for the Soviets I think it should be more like 4:1 before you see that kind of success rate.Even at 1:1 the Soviets attacks are successful probably 60 - 70% of the time.
To my mind a Soviet 1:1 (after 1941) attack should be more like 10% success rate with very heavy casualties, basically only used to wear down and pin German defenses.2:1 maybe 50%, 3:1 maybe 70ish and 4:1 90ish.

< Message edited by timmyab -- 11/28/2012 2:23:42 PM >

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Post #: 50
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 4:43:14 PM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T8 North after my moves.

Again Saper only makes minimal progress and his panzer/motorized are almost all out of gas. I decide to hold my ground





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RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 4:44:16 PM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T8 Centre from Rzhev to South of Tula after my moves




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Post #: 52
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 4:45:12 PM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T8 Centre after my moves from Orel to Belgorod.

You can see that Saper has split his AGS panzer/motorized forces. Some are driving towards Voronezeh while the others advance towards the Donbas





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Post #: 53
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 4:46:20 PM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T8 South after my moves.




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Post #: 54
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 4:47:55 PM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T9 North after my moves.

Saper gassed up a couple of his motorized to 56% to 70% full and also had another motorized and one panzer at 41% to 55% full. So I retreated to the Valdai Hills and the river line to the north. At this point I was feeling pretty confident about my position in the North. Indeed it was the only place on my entire line that I was feeling comfortable. Unfortunately I made a big mistake here as I had woefully inadequate forces between the hills and the river. What can I say, it was late at night and I rushed my turn. A poor excuse but the only one I’ve got.





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RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 4:49:22 PM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T9 Moscow area after my moves.

Note the huge concentration of infantry grinding it’s way straight towards Moscow.





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RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 4:50:25 PM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T9 Tula to Kursk after my moves.




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RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/28/2012 4:51:28 PM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		T9 South.

Mud hits at an opportune time for me in the far south. But Saper flies several airsupply missions in this area this turn.





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RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/29/2012 12:06:49 AM   
hooooper_slith

 

Posts: 540
Joined: 10/26/2012
Status: offline 		How are you doing in the Crimea? Do you have a line in mind here you're going to try and dig in? Also, what is your OOB at the moment?

< Message edited by hooooper -- 11/29/2012 12:07:07 AM >

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Post #: 59
RE: Defending Mother Russia - 11/29/2012 6:28:52 AM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 4097
Joined: 11/27/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		I have nothing in the Crimea. I simply could not afford any units to defend it.

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Post #: 60
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