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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/15/2015 5:28:08 PM   
Lecivius


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Please allow me to join in in welcoming you back. I have always enjoyed your thoughtful and intelligent presence, posts, and strategies.

Now go beat that Colorado muffin maker back into the stone age

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/15/2015 5:34:05 PM   
witpqs


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/15/2015 5:52:43 PM   
jwolf

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

That ratio doesn't look good. Not sustainable for you.

Naive question: the Allies have done pretty well in the air war, or so it seems, with losses about 8 to 5 in their favor. If that isn't good enough, then what is?

(in reply to KenchiSulla)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/15/2015 6:30:03 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf
...If that isn't good enough, then what is?


I think it's hard for the Allies to "win" the air war in '42 and '43 in any version of AE, but even more so in some of the Mods. This is the Reluctant Admiral Mod. My opponent is one of the creators of the Mod and is also a well-known JFB. So it's slanted towards Japan (I think that's fair to say, though JFB's may disagree.)

I didn't fully understand the disparity when I began the game, so I defended aggressively in the air. I've done well, I think, but it isn't sustainable. My figher pools are empty. I don't even have any Wildcats in the pools! I'm in a bit of a pickle even though the Sumatra invasion was a success and even though the Allies have done well in the air war.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/15/2015 6:37:16 PM   
KenchiSulla


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Hi Jwolf,

What is winning the air war? Shooting down aircraft? Or being able to achieve and keep air supremacy wherever you want.... At the moment the air war, over Sumatra at least, is a stalemate, with heavy losses on both sides. The Japanese can adjust production of aircraft, the allies can not..

Victory point wise, Canoerebel is winning... What I think is happening here is that the allied position is so threatening the Japanese player will throw anything he has at Sabang to force the Allies out of the base...

Strategically, John doesn't have a choice.. If he doesn't attack he'll lose Palembang, the single most important oil source.. Balikpapan alone is not enough...

A solution might be shutting down the bases the Tojo's are operating from. To do this the allies will need to use a trump card... Heavy bombers.. In order to deploy heavy bombers the allies need secure bases within range of important targets..

The Allies need to expand... or retreat

EDIT: At least that is what I think... Ofcourse

< Message edited by Cannonfodder -- 12/15/2015 7:39:44 PM >


_____________________________

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"It happened, therefore it can happen again: this is the core of what we have to say. It can happen, and it can happen everywhere.”
¯ Primo Levi, writer, holocaust survivor

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/15/2015 6:40:00 PM   
Canoerebel


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Here's the gordian knot I have to unravel.

1. I agree that the air war probably isn't sustainable at Sabang.
2. Without air cover, I'll have to withdraw the ships.
3. Currently many of my carrier F4F squadrons are at Sabang. I have to reunite them.
4. The F4Fs have limited range. To reunite carriers and fighters, I have two options:
(a) bring carriers close enough to Sabang to receive fighters (range is 23 hexes). This is the quickest method. I could do so as soon as January 6, 1943 (two turns). That would them allow me to vacate shipping from Sabang, giving carrier cover to my capital ships.
(b) safer option is two stage withdrawal - F4Fs from Sabang to Ramree Island (level 8 airfield) to carriers. Then carriers cover withdrawal of ships from Sabang.
5. 4(b) probably seems wiser, but that means Sabang is without USN fighters for at least two turns. The base could be easily overwhelmed and capital ships at much higher risk.
6. There is a third option - keep carriers back and send all ships from Sabang naked.
7. If John sends the KB forward into the Bay of Bengal (a very John-like thing to do) the damage inflicted to the Allied fleet and every other ship in area will be immense.
8. All of this is also an admission to John that Sabang is a lost cause. Losing Sabang means losing tons of troops and a certain amount of prestige. Fortunately, I am on the Allied side and therefore not subject to the Bushido Code. But as soon as he detects the withdrawal, he'll probably pounce with everything including KB.
9. My 4EB pools are in worse shape than fighter pools due to prolonged campaigning in Burma. Besides, John has umpteen airfields in range.
10. Taking additional airfields is problematic isn't a viable option. It would take too long too organize, the situation would by then be far worse, and I don't have the PP to devote in all likelihood.

A challenging situation!

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 12/15/2015 7:50:49 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/15/2015 6:49:58 PM   
KenchiSulla


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Hi Dan,

Can you avoid detection with your carriers? If you can then you could bring the carriers in range, evacuate, and dash your surface assets at full speed out of Sabang towards your carriers...

John is limited to the same speed as your naval ships and if he sniffs your intentions he'll have to worry about an ambush...



_____________________________

AKA Cannonfodder

"It happened, therefore it can happen again: this is the core of what we have to say. It can happen, and it can happen everywhere.”
¯ Primo Levi, writer, holocaust survivor

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/15/2015 7:15:21 PM   
witpqs


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My gut sense strategic reaction is "Keep him tied to Sabang with your main assets now working the area. Use CVE and other forces to push in other places."

Everything is easier said than done, so I ain't sayin' it's gonna be easy!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/15/2015 10:29:30 PM   
Canoerebel


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Very hard decision given the many variables. Truly a gordian knot. Eventually, decisions made as follows:

1. I think it more likely that John would employ the KB air against Sabang than to send the KB sprinting into the Bay of Bengal. If I guess wrong...well, it will be ugly.
2. Allied carriers to move to within 23 hexes of Sabang in preparation for retrieving F4Fs day next turn.
3. All fighters to remain in place at Sabang to provide another day's full protection. Will John come full bore again? Might he rest his fighters?
4. Some Allied shipping to flee Sabang, including two vulnerable CVEs, one fast BB, one slow BB, and a mismash of merchants. These ships are truly in harm's way, but they have to leave and the risk will only increase.

Ugh.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/15/2015 10:59:04 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Very hard decision given the many variables. Truly a gordian knot. Eventually, decisions made as follows:

1. I think it more likely that John would employ the KB air against Sabang than to send the KB sprinting into the Bay of Bengal. If I guess wrong...well, it will be ugly.
2. Allied carriers to move to within 23 hexes of Sabang in preparation for retrieving F4Fs day next turn.
3. All fighters to remain in place at Sabang to provide another day's full protection. Will John come full bore again? Might he rest his fighters?
4. Some Allied shipping to flee Sabang, including two vulnerable CVEs, one fast BB, one slow BB, and a mismash of merchants. These ships are truly in harm's way, but they have to leave and the risk will only increase.

Ugh.


I don't recall the map in detail, but there's always the maxim "Stop worrying about what he can do to you. What can you do to HIM?"

Given your supply states and what is being generated, if any, in your holdings on Sumatra, can you move forward on the ground? IO side maybe? Can you get to a position where you can support the northern offshore islands' build-up? It's a lot easier to dash in from the far west than come down the pipe from Colombo.

Once you get your ships out what air do you REALLY need to fight on the ground in the next 90 days? The terrain isn't good for ground bombing. Make him stop worrying about your navy.

Easier said than done, but don't get air-tunnel-vision.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 12:36:41 PM   
Canoerebel


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This is what happens when Gordian Knot meets KB.....




Attachment (1)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 12:43:11 PM   
Canoerebel


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I guess wrong on every count last turn ... and came out smelling like a rose. For this one turn, anyhow.

I predicted that John was less likely to send the KB into the Bay of Bengal than to employ it against Sabang in a combined land-air attack. As you can see, I was wrong. The map in the previous post shows the KB arriving right amidst the host of shipping fleeing Sabang. That shipping is beyond vulnerable without fighter cover. It includes one fast BB TF (Washington wtih two-DD escort), one slow BB TF (Mayland and West Virginia with four-DD escort), two CVE TFs (Long Island and another accompanied by riff-raff - nothing as much as a DD in either TF), a mish-mash of merchant TFs and some cripples. They are all sitting ducks!

And what does the KB do? It launches a single strike of Vals against BB Washington, scoring one hit. That's it.

A sub picks off a nice AK (not xAK) and that's the sum total of the loss by the fleeing chicks ... for this turn at least.

And as for predicting that John would continue attacking Sabang's air defenses en masse? He stood down his Tojos. A modest raid of Zeroes and Bettys came in and got chewn up by the CAP.

That's the main action this turn.

But the Gordian Knot is tighter than ever. Discussion to follow later about (1) what is John likely to do next, and (2) what in the heck am I going to do with my carriers and the fleeing chicks of Sabang?


(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 12:53:02 PM   
Canoerebel


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What does John do with the KB next? I know John like the back of my hand (as proven last turn when he did something I didn't think he'd do - IE, John is predictable and unpredictable and I don't know what he's going to do). But here's the options:

1. Pull KB back - not because he's timid, but becuase he deduces that I will take the opportunity to send shipping due west (true: south) out of Sabang. This would be an astute move, but he's not likely to take it.
2. Push the KB forward into the center of the Bay of Bengal while chasing my carriers - he spotted them last turn. He probably knows my carrier F4Fs are at Sabang. He'll probably figure out the carriers are just within range to retrieve those fighters. Blood lust!
3. Most likely of all, he'll move those carriers towards Ceylon to continue ravaging the vulnerable chicks that fled Sabang. He'll have his blood lust up having seen Washington. He may have seen that there are CVEs present.

So (a) what indeed do I do with the fleeing chicks; (b) what do I do with my carriers, and (c) what do I do with the ships at Sabang?

Wtih regard to the latter, this probably creates a window to send fast combat ships due west (true: south) towards Diego. Yet I want them at Sabang as long as the air battle is tenable. It's tenable at the moment. Did John give his Tojos one day's rest to recover fatigue? Is he hurting for pilots? What do I do with my F4Fs?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 2:31:24 PM   
Canoerebel


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Sub and surface battle highlights, plus single air attack on Sabang, this turn:

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 05, 43
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Tandjoengbalai at 47,77

Japanese Ships
CL Kiso, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
DD Namikaze

Allied Ships
SS Haddock

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Submarine attack near Truk at 110,107

Japanese Ships
TK Takane Maru, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS Gato

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Submarine attack near Trivandrum at 27,42

Japanese Ships
SS I-30

Allied Ships
TK British Trader, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Victoria Point at 51,66, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CM Kyosai, Shell hits 10, and is sunk
CM Ukishima, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CA Frobisher
CL Sumatra
CLAA Van Heemskerck
DD Balch

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Amami Oshima at 97,61

Japanese Ships
xAK Meigen Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
PB Seki Maru #3
SC CHa-35
xAK Yoneyama Maru
xAKL Bunzan Maru
xAKL Shinrei Maru
xAKL Unyo Maru
PB Rokko Maru #2

Allied Ships
SS Pollack

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Great Nicobar at 40,67

Japanese Ships
SS I-174

Allied Ships
AK Procyon, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
DMS Lamberton

SS I-174 launches 2 torpedoes at AK Procyon

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Submarine attack near Pescadores at 85,62

Japanese Ships
TK Ryuei Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire

Allied Ships
SS Halibut

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Little Andaman at 42,59

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 24 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 15
D3A1 Val x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
D3A1 Val: 6 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
BB Washington, Bomb hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
3 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
8 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb

Carrier support unable to supply air cover..


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Sabang at 44,70

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 75 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3b Zero x 24
G4M1 Betty x 8

Allied aircraft
P-38G Lightning x 13
P-39D Airacobra x 16
P-40E Warhawk x 23
P-40K Warhawk x 67
F4F-4 Wildcat x 89

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3b Zero: 8 destroyed
G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-39D Airacobra: 1 destroyed
P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed
F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 destroyed


(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 2:57:42 PM   
jwolf

 

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quote:

Carrier support unable to supply air cover..


This line was in the report on the air attack on BB Washington. What does it mean, and to which side did it apply?

BTW subs on both sides seemed pretty aggressive.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 3:13:22 PM   
ny59giants


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Since you were gone Dan, RA and the other mods now have JuanG's Allied aircraft puchase program. It can be costly, but you can use PPs to by airframes which might be helpful right now, I don't think this can be added to your current game vs John.

This mod and the others follow John's passion when it comes to the naval side of the game. While the IJN is stronger, I've had either John or me add some things for the Allies that do help (old CL to CLAA conversion, AKV and AOs to CVEs, 18 plane FP groups upgradeable to SBDs, etc.). So, IMO the mod gives Japan more to be competative longer, but the Allies are not without their toys increasing.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 3:54:23 PM   
Canoerebel


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There are two single-CVE TFs close to the BB Washington TF. Neither CVE is carrying fighters, hence neither could offer CAP to Washington. Both CVEs are "fleeing chicks" placed in riff-raff TFs (see screen shot for Copahee TF makeup). Long Island is just to the SW. Both TFs are six or seven hexes away from KB. Neither shows detection. Washington TF is just to their NE two hexes.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 12/16/2015 4:54:47 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 4:03:12 PM   
Canoerebel


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I think it 70% likely John will move KB a bit to the NE to position it between Sabang and Colombo, thus interdicting "fleeing chicks." Exact position will be determined by his evaluation as to what I'm most likely to do with those vulnerable ships - especially Washington. He'll wonder if I'll send them NE towards Diamond Harbor, towards Colombo, or back towards Sabang. He won't be sure. And he isn't sure what I'll do with my carriers. There's a 20% likelihood he'll leap NE towards Diamond Harbor in pursuit of my carriers, which he just sighted this turn. There's a 10% chance he'll move closer to Sabang or retire towards the IO.

So how do I counter? Major options: (1) Move my carriers towards Diamond Harbor to keep them safe, dispersing the "fleeing chicks" in no-man's-land as best I can but really leaving them to the wolves; (2) Reuniting the F4Fs with the carriers and moving the carriers to a position between Sabang and Colombo, closer to the latter (to eliminate threat of any LBA); sending the "feeling chicks" towards them both for safety, such as it is, and to "confuse the radar screen" as far as the KB is concerned; seeking a full-fledged carrier battle on the supposition that KB is a long way from home and that damaged enemy carriers would have to negotiate sub-choked waters on the long, long way back to Singers, Batavia or Soerabaja; (3) Reunite F4Fs with carriers and send carries towards Sabang (at flank speed???), probably catching John off guard and possibly out of position; sending some fleeing chicks back towards Sabang and others towards Colombo.

Those are probably my three options. Thoughts?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 4:42:49 PM   
JocMeister

 

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Tough situation is probably an understatement!

I´m not sure what kind of ships you have besides those mentioned? But among those you mentioned only BB Washington and CA Frobisher is of true value (IMO and all that). You don´t have to worry about VPs as you already have so much VPs a Japanese AV will never happen. So VP wise (although this will be costly) its not a matter of life and death.

What I would probably do is try to save the most important stuff. Washington and any CAs should be able to sprint to safety using full speed? Same should be true for some of the faster AUX ships which should be able to do the same. Again I have to stress the dangers of seeking a CV battle at this point. If I were you I would probably retire my CVs with a full speed run with their air groups aboard.

For the rest...well. The two slow BBs could easily draw the majority of the KB strikes and are tough to sink which should give some of the shipping a means to escape. In the process they do pretty much the only thing they are good for (besides consuming vast quantities of fuel ) which is to be a TT magnets.

Its a tough decision and no matter what you do you will lose ships. I think the most important thing is to avoid losing anything critical to the war effort. My reasoning for this is that I quite strongly believe that the KB is out of your reach at this point in the war. Obviously anything is possible with the right amount of luck but losing your CVs at this point would surely doom your forces on Sumatra. Not a gamble I would take!

PS. Writing on the phone so not the most eloquent text!

< Message edited by JocMeister -- 12/16/2015 5:44:04 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 4:55:33 PM   
witpqs


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Where is safety? Do you have CAP & AA at Colombo that can stop a KB strike?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 6:09:46 PM   
Canoerebel


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John won't want to tackle Colombo. He's got to fear breaking the back of his naval air power against a hardened target. Colombo is level 9 airfield, level 9 port. It has 253 fighters (about equal parts Hurricanes, Marlets, and P-39s, which is not optimal but John doesn't know what's there - besides, those fighters are manned by high-experience pilots). Plus I can transfer some land fighters in from Calcutta vicinity. So I don't think John will tackle Colombo.

My inclination is to send my carriers to a point close to Trincomalee (but closer to the Indian coast). John can succeed in getting battle if he comes that far, but if he does he's so far into Indian country that things become disastrous for him if he loses or breaks even in a carrier fight.

Also figuring into this, I have lots of extra F4F squadrons involved, including one unit (not one of the main carrier fighter squadrons) with 47 aircraft. I can also put smaller squadrons on the CVEs, which would further confuse the radar screen for John.

The bottom line here is that I don't want to get hemmed into the Bay of Bengal. For one thing, an RN CV is due for withdrawal (two days back). But I need sea room to pose threats to John from multiple vectors.

Decisions, decisions.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 7:26:56 PM   
Insano

 

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Speaking as JFB: in this situation I fear surface action. Just saying. Yes the attacking surface units are doomed when the sun comes up but the chance to take carriers under naval gunfire is juicy. Even if Japan wins any surface engagement decisively, you're likely to cause some damage to the precious KB. Is that the slow BB TF just 2 hexes NW of KB? Typing on phone so won't elaborate.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 8:06:52 PM   
Canoerebel


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No, that's USN DD Dent two hexes NW of KB. I'll vector some of my combat vessels towards KB.

I also just discovered that Copahee is carrying 17 F4Fs. I don't think they flew due to the type of TF. I'll have to reconfigure the TF so that CAP will fly (or send the F4Fs elsewhere if I can).

I'm currently leaning towards sending the Allied carriers to a point near Trincomalee, but won't make the final decision for several more hours.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 8:33:23 PM   
KenchiSulla


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Using some surface assets against KB (react 6 is best) might also disrupt any intercept plan he sets up....

_____________________________

AKA Cannonfodder

"It happened, therefore it can happen again: this is the core of what we have to say. It can happen, and it can happen everywhere.”
¯ Primo Levi, writer, holocaust survivor

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 8:46:22 PM   
Canoerebel


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I'm vectoring in DD Dent, CL Helena, and a combat TF with CL/DD on patrol/react 6. BB Washington TF and the two slow BB TFs will head due north (towards Madras) at flank speed. If John moves KB that way, which I think he will, there's a chance the courses will collide or that the BBs will draw lots of attention. If KB doesn't go that way, the BBs will be in the clear.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 9:46:22 PM   
Andav

 

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I will also add how glad I am to have you back and playing and writing again. I typically do not read Allied AARs but yours is a must read.

My guess is John will not venture too far into the Bay of Bengal unless he can stay within a day of LBA cover.

I think the surface TFs are a great plan. You will have plenty to replace any losses (eventually) and it will definitely be something he needs to respect. witpqs did this type of thing to me often. Most annoying.

Wa


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 10:00:41 PM   
Canoerebel


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The KB replenishment TF is due west of Sabang about 15 hexes or so. Two Allied TFs are heading that way also.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/16/2015 10:28:56 PM   
Canoerebel


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Wilcats have returned to the roost. Death Star to move WNW towards Trincomalee. They are within range of the KB if John guesses right and penetrates deep enough (might have to use flank speed to do that, not quite sure). I don't think he will. I hope he won't. But the Allied carriers are in pretty good shape. Lots of fighters.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 12/16/2015 11:29:53 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/17/2015 12:26:49 AM   
zuluhour


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I can't picture jumping right back in this one Dan, It's not like you can plan very far ahead yet. Kudos. I agree with Herr C.Fodder as well.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/17/2015 2:45:52 PM   
Canoerebel


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This is what happens with the KB meets with the Gordian Knot.





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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 12/17/2015 3:46:40 PM >

(in reply to zuluhour)
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