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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 5:05:32 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2/12/43

After four nights of keeping watch, the settlers are exhausted. Some are even hallucinating, seeing "wagons" out on the praire and the like. The Comanchees had attacked that night and both sides had suffered casualties. But Clint wasn't sure exactly what had happened - there was too much danger to leave his post to ask around. For now, he'd have to make decisions based on incomplete and sometimes contradictory information.

Battle of Sumatra: I think I encountered a sync bug - or maybe not. Maybe I was hallucinating or dreaming. There were two things that I thought I witnessed in the replay that didn't match up with what I saw when I opened the next-turn file. To wit: I thought I saw Judys from an IJN carrier damage or sink an xAK west of Sabang, but now there's no sign of a carrier TF nor any sign of an xAK damaged or sunk. Very strange. More importantly (to me, in my mania), I thought the Allies well handled the third-successive day of sweeps at Sabang. I thought the Intel Screen would show lopsided losses for Japan. Instead, they show about 1:1 losses. That's tough.

The day began with three IJN destroyers raiding Sabang. They first encountered a TF of five USN destroyers (rickety old ones), sinking one. One Jap DD was badly damaged, another modestly so. The radiers also tangled with the BB Indiana TF to no real effect. I'm not impressed with how my ships handled these encounters (and one several days ago), so I've swapped them from "in port" to "patrol do-not-react."

These recon raids may mean John's ready to send his his BBs and other ships. He should win that battle simply by the weight of ships he can bring, though hopefully the Allies ships and mines will buy enough time time to bring in reinforcements. BB Washington is inbound from Capetown. CAs and CLAAs are either enroute or at Ceylon waiting for an all-clear (what about that mirage carrier sighting???). Also, the Allies have ten Fletchers at Colombo and Capetown upgrading. This was not an opportune time to upgrade....but they'll begin to come "on line" for service in about five days to 15 days. I think Arleigh Burke will take command of a stout Fletcher + CA TF in a few weeks.

Of course, the IJAAF sweeps are the most important thing. By my count, there were two groups of Tonys (30 and 14 aircraft, which is considerably less than yesterday) and 32, 36, 20 and 18 Tojos. I "think" (sync bug + FOW really have me confused) that the Allies downed about 45 of these aircraft. That's three consecutive days of sweeps. He's never done four, and I'm hoping he'll stand down for rest. But he might also send everything he's got. Very tense.

The Allied fighter corps is beat up. I "think" I lost about 30-35. At the start of the day, I had 278 ready to go (plus 100 in maintenance). Tomorrow there will be about 249. The losses are particularly worrisome for the P40Ks, which is generally a workhorse for the USAAF. Those are down to 55 from 69 yesterday (with lots in the shop). That's a steep decline. The F4Fs are down from 110 to 100. Not critical. The Corsairs, P38Gs, Buffaloes and Beaufighter numbers are steady. The P39Ds were roughed up (down from 27 to 17) as were the P40Es (29 to 21).

It'll be days before reinforcement squadrons are ready to move in. For instance, the Calcutta squadron that swapped a few P40Es for 11 P38Es two days back still have zero servicable aircraft. I have similar situations with Spit Vs, Kittyhawk IIIs, and some Buffaloes. I'm guessing three or four days before some of these can begin to move forward. That's one reason I'm hoping John will rest his fighters.

The raids are still reaching Sabang before the CAP scrambles. The Combat Report indicates things like "6 minutes to target." I dunno why. I have radar. The base is in magnificent condition and well staffed.

More merchant ships have reached Sabang (this last week has been suprisingly successful in that regard). The base now has 292k supply with two more small TFs just a day or two out. (But what about that mysterious carrier sighting????)

Sabang airfield is 8.92 - three or four days from reaching 9. The forts are at 4.24.

The Japanese are bombing Langsa airfield without opposition. But supply is flowing to the garrison and then flowing on to the big stack in the hex to the south. Allied forces in Sumatra are flush with supply.

DEI: The USN DD raiders are all out of harm's way and in the IO. They'll be back later to see if John is keeping house right. Meanwhile, the fuel is about sucked dry from Bandjermasin. There's 1.5k left and four subs are heading there to top off. I think there was 6k when the doughty Dutch guerillas took the vacant base two weeks ago. I'd like to use it all and leave John with nothing but a smile.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/22/2016 6:08:07 PM >

(in reply to Lecivius)
Post #: 4141
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 5:17:58 PM   
Alfred

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

The CPS-1 radar was not early radar. It was mid-late war radar. Used in Normandy, it was picking up German movement over Germany with high precision, and was in use into the early 50's. I found a reference to a thread in a Matrix forum on various radars. I'm gonna try to hunt it down today, work allowing.

<edit>

I have found the following, but it only refers to fire control, not air search.

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3684150&mpage=1&key=radar�

<edit>

I can't find it :( Hopefully Alfred will stumble across this, he is far better versed than I at such things.


For radar operation, this is a better thread to quote.

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3538438&mpage=1&key=radar�

As usual look for my posts and read the links I provide.

There is a possibility built into the algorithm that having a radar set present gives a worse outcome than if you had no radar present at all.

Alfred

(in reply to Lecivius)
Post #: 4142
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 5:19:22 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks Alfred.


(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 4143
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 5:49:22 PM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6685
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline 		I don't have time now to look closely at your setting etc but a few brief comments.

1.  As of patch 7, aviation support is:

(a) no longer capped at 250 for a human player
(b) doubled at a size 8+ airfield

3.  If all your aviation support is contained within the 2 USAAF and 1 USN Base Forces, you are seriously short of aviation support.  Those 3 BF will give you only at most 156 Av Sup.  Doubling it means you only have 312 Av Sup to service almost 400 fighters at Sabang plus whatever other aircraft you have located there.

4.  Radar performance depends in part on the experience level of the unit which has the radar set.

5.  The CAP settings you have mean there cannot be any defending fighters already in the air to meet the afternoon sweeps.  At 90% CAP you get a large mass to meet morning sweeps but nothing will be left for the afternoon.  A 50% CAP means a smaller mass to meet the morning sweeps but some available mass for the afternoon sweeps.

Alfred

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4144
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 6:10:38 PM   
Lecivius


Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline 		Thanks Alfred. I appreciate your insite. I sure wish I knew how you searched these out, but I'm glad your here

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 4145
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 6:34:05 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The Allies have tremendous AV support in Sumatra - 1170 (yes, 1170) at Sabang and 225 at Langsa. In part, this is because the Allies took other bases but have gradually pulled back into a final perimeter.

The AV support includes at least two Air HQ at Sabang and one at Langsa.

After receiving good insight from the Peanut Gallery yesterday, I modified CAP settings to 60% with 10% rest (with a few exceptions). I wanted to see how this change played out, but the possible Sync issues and FOW have me very confused about exactly how the sweep vs. CAP combat played out yesterday. I'm erring on the side of taking the "bad" numbers. If so, I'm wondering if the new settings played a part. But I'm going to give them at least one more day before coming to any early conclusions.

(in reply to Lecivius)
Post #: 4146
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 6:56:35 PM   
1EyedJacks


Posts: 2244
Joined: 3/12/2006
From: The Eastern Sierras
Status: offline 		I like to leave my high CAP at 80/20 or 90/10 when I'm covering against sustained enemy attacks and my low CAP at 50%. This means I get a better attack on the first phase but the second phase is light. Note that I always seem to get a few AC up in the event of a second phase attack.

When my High CAP starts building up fatigue/disruption I swap them out with a different air group. Do you have that luxury?

Just curious - can you get in a few AA units to help out in defending your airfield/base?

_____________________________

TTFN,

Mike

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4147
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 7:19:31 PM   
Lecivius


Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline 		I do not have the manual before me, so please bear with me for inaccuracies. And if I am hijacking this in any way, let me know and I will shut up. But these sweeps and raid times make no sense from what I am reading. Per the information provided in Alfreds link...

"Look for JWE's post. Pretty clear from his post that radar can impact on CAP and naval combat. Nothing else is covered. This is quite consistent with the manual.

5. On 28 September 2009, another key dev, TheElf stated the following:

"Radar detects Airplanes. The longer the range the sooner it does so. The higher the effect the more accurate the data and the better your CAP will perform. There really isn't much more to it."


So Longer range & higher alltitude should be providing better data in some type of format. And the CPS-1 radar was a darned good radar set for that time frame, some of the best of the war for mobile air search. I know in game terms that does not matter, just bearing it in mind.

This is from wiki, so my numbers may be off somewhat;
Cruise speed: 249 mph at 13,125 feet 400 km/h at 4000 meters

Assuming these fighters were at cruise speed on approach, and at or above angels 36

1st raid
5 minutes 21 miles out

2nd raid
12 minutes 50 miles out

3rd raid
4 minutes 17 miles out

4th raid
11 minutes 46 miles out

5th raid
3 minute 13 miles out

6th raid
4 minutes 17 miles out

So, with 6 quality air search radars over Sabang, and completely discounting the ones at Langsa (comms blackout, radio failure, asleep at the wheel, etc.) the best air search radar of the time, on full alert, really did diddly squat? I'm not screaming "BUG!!", but I can't help feeling we are missing a VERY important piece here in the defense of Sabang.

(in reply to 1EyedJacks)
Post #: 4148
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 7:24:32 PM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6685
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline 		Need to factor in experience.  A significant under the hood factor.

Another factor taken into account for warning times is the cruise speed of the enemy raid.  Another under the hood factor.

Alfred

(in reply to Lecivius)
Post #: 4149
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 7:30:44 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I'm adding your thoughts about CAP percentages and heights etc. to the grist mill. Lots of good suggestions/insights given the past few days. I'll be doing some experimenting. But I don't have the luxury of getting too fancy what with an all-out air war ongoing and crescendoing right now.

I have lots of AA units at Sabang. The base shows "Flak 101." By comparison, Ramree Island shows "Flak 33" and John's given up bombing it even though it doesn't currently have any fighter protection. However, most of the flak units at Ramree are "heavy" while only one at Sabang is "heavy." I'm hoping, though, that the presence of three or four USA "coastal artillery" flank units (I think that's the right term) will prove effective.

When John finally breaks through my CAP the AA is going to play a big role. But to this date, he hasn't broken through, so I don't have any feel for how the AA will perform.

quote:

ORIGINAL: 1EyedJacks

I like to leave my high CAP at 80/20 or 90/10 when I'm covering against sustained enemy attacks and my low CAP at 50%. This means I get a better attack on the first phase but the second phase is light. Note that I always seem to get a few AC up in the event of a second phase attack.

When my High CAP starts building up fatigue/disruption I swap them out with a different air group. Do you have that luxury?

Just curious - can you get in a few AA units to help out in defending your airfield/base?


(in reply to 1EyedJacks)
Post #: 4150
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 7:34:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Here's one thing I noticed. While I'm only getting 4-6 minutes notice of the IJAAF sweeps of Sabang, I'm getting 30 minutes notice of Japanese air strikes at Langsa (Helens, Sallys etc. escorted by Tojos and Zeroes)

At Lansgsa, I have one USAAF base force with two of those CPS-1 radar units. That's 1/3rd the number at Sabang, plus Langsa is much closer to the enemy bases. So the odds of getting good warning at Sabang should be much higher, shouldn't they?

Is the nature of the mission the difference? IE, are bombing missions getting detected much further out, sweeps much closer in? If so, is this WAD?

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/22/2016 8:49:31 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4151
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 8:00:20 PM   
Lecivius


Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline 		I would be curious as to any differences between the Sabang base forces and the one at Lansgsa. As I said, we have to be missing something. And only a fool argues with Alfred. So a line by line stare & compare would be helpful, even if it does give a small migraine. I know of no reason a sweep gets a lower detection threshold. Bombers are larger, but TheElf makes no mention of that. I need to look in the manual when I get home to be more sure.

Sorry I'm not being more helpful

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4152
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 8:12:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		You're being helpful -and kind to give it this much attention.

The USAAF base force at Langsa has two CPS-1 radar units. Three base force units at Langsa have two each of those same units. I'll check in a moment for any other differences (especially experience and morale), but I doubt there's anything noteworthy.

My hunch is that the radar are detecting bombing missions but not sweeps. Just a hunch, but it's a hypothesis that bears scrutiny.

(in reply to Lecivius)
Post #: 4153
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 8:34:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Here's a line-by-line comparison of Sabang and Langsa giving base force/radar information plus "time to target" info for raids this turn.

Langsa - only 30 base supply due to frequent bombing, but each unit is fully supplied

119 USAAF B.F. - 2 SCR 270 radar, Experience 58, Morale 97
175 USAAF B.F. - 2 CPS-1 radar, E. 48, M. 90
175 Wing (Aussie) - two observers, E. 64, M. 95
110 USA B.F. - one observor, E. 60, M. 64

The following raids occur in "Thunderstorms"

1. Sweep by 13 Zeroes at 29k, 10 minutes "time to target" (t2t)
2. 52 Helens and Sallies unescorted, 15 k, 30 min t2t
3. 9 Zeros, 40 Helens and Sallies, 11k, 21 min
4. 9 Z, 11 Sallies, 11k, 18 min.
5. Sweep by 5 Tojoes, 29k, 47 min
6. 9 Z, 8 Sallies, 15k, 8 min

Sabang - flush with supply and support and everything else a man could want

118 USAAF B.F. 2 CPS-1, 59 experience, 99 morale
138 USA B.F. 2 observers, 49, 99
139 USA B.F., 2 observers, 47, 99
140 USA B.F., 2 observers, 43, 99
178 USAAF B.F., 2 CPS-1, 41, 99
221 USN B.F., 2 CPS-1, 45, 99
Also several Aussie "Wings" with observers

The following raids occur in "Moderate Rain"

1. 30 Tony, 35k, 6 minutes
2. 32 Tojo, 32k, 6 min.
3. 36 Tojo, 32k, 6 min
4. 20 Tojo, 30k, 13 min
5. 14 Tony, 32k, 46 minutes

On average, the sweeps get far less notice. But there are the occasional exceptions, like that last Tony sweep.

I can't detect a hard and fast rule here. But it seems to me like sweeps aren't detected by radar as well as raids are. That could be a function of the game not WAD or a function of speed (sweeps faster than bombers) or something else.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/22/2016 9:37:08 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4154
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 8:58:40 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John told me this morning that he had done two turns (this game and his game with NYGiants) in a short time. So I don't think he got fancy - IE, probably no complicated set of orders issues. So I don't really expect a big naval battle at Sabang tonight. And he probably either left his fighter sweep settings as is or stood them down. I hope its the latter.

I made a mistake yesterday in setting height on my P40Ks at Sabang. I meant to set them at 20k (highest for optimal maneuverability) but they're all at 29k. That might explain why they suffered more losses than expected. I've re-set them and hope for better next turn.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 9:17:35 PM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		Could be a really dumb thought, is JIII using LRCAP on Sabang and Escort on Langsa???

I'm unsure about LRCAPing an enemy base.

_____________________________

Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4156
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 11:08:56 PM   
Lecivius


Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline 		I came home & did a cheesy 'sandbox'. I put a lvl 7 allied AF on Pagan, 100k supply, & 3 BF for 6 CPS-1 radars. No fighter coverage at all. I put a 36 group of Helen's, and a 32 group of Tojo's on Saipan. Five raids for each group, 1 at 28-33k to cause the algorithm to hopefully change. All 10 raids were seen 10 minutes out. Totally unscientific, but all I have time for.

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 4157
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 11:32:55 PM   
1EyedJacks


Posts: 2244
Joined: 3/12/2006
From: The Eastern Sierras
Status: offline 		Hey Alfred, will radar increase the effectiveness of Canoerebel's AA units also? Maybe this is something that you know is "under the hood" also? It seems like it should - especially if you get a feel for how far out the enemy aircraft are, the direction they are coming in from, and their altitude and speed...

I see a lot of info regarding Radar and CAP, Night Fighters, and Naval use but I didn't see anything in the manual regarding AA.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Need to factor in experience.  A significant under the hood factor.

Another factor taken into account for warning times is the cruise speed of the enemy raid.  Another under the hood factor.

Alfred



_____________________________

TTFN,

Mike

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 4158
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 11:36:47 PM   
1EyedJacks


Posts: 2244
Joined: 3/12/2006
From: The Eastern Sierras
Status: offline 		7.4.1.1 CAP AND RADAR.
Radar plays a significant role in the way CAP behaves. Historically, it allowed for more warning time to scramble, an optimum altitude for an intercept, and provided descriptive updates as to the position of a targeted raid.

When a raid is detected a “First Detection” message is generated and a time stamp, notes a T0. From T0, the cruise speed of the raid’s slowest component is used to generate a time until over target. When combined with the distance at which the raid was first detected. This time-distance routine is checked against the “time to climb” of the scrambling fighters and their various delays depending on their state of readiness. In game terms the EXP of the Radar operator can also positively or negatively modify the result of a CAP’s intercept. Additionally, Radar cannot detect raids below the horizon or without Line-of-Sight. This means altitude settings are important to first detection of a raid.

Without radar this time distance routine is absent and first Detection is usually when Coast Watchers, Observer Corps, or the Airborne CAP first sights a raid. Fighters in a ready status will be lucky to get airborne in time to hit the raid as they egress the target area, but follow on or subsequent raids will be more likely to face larger CAPs, once alerted, than the first raid of the day.

The altitude at which CAP is assigned is important in the game. As CAP and escorts engage, the individual planes will be scatter over several altitudes. For example if a CAP plane dives on an Escort at 10K’ from 15k’, the dive may take the CAP pass 10K’ leaving it open to be also dived on from an Escort at 15K’.

_____________________________

TTFN,

Mike

(in reply to 1EyedJacks)
Post #: 4159
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/22/2016 11:58:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I don't think radar affects AA. I read through much of the information suggested by Alfred. In several places there were clear statements to that effect.

Did you catch Alfred's comment that due to the peculiarities of the radar algorithm, there may be instances in which you're better off not having radar! (At least, that's what I understood him to say.) There's been no further explanation or elaboration on that point, but I hope there will be.

(in reply to 1EyedJacks)
Post #: 4160
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/23/2016 12:58:34 AM   
Mike McCreery


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quote:

There is a possibility built into the algorithm that having a radar set present gives a worse outcome than if you had no radar present at all.


I am guessing that the information would be coming in wrong such as a wrong altitude or wrong time to target and thus possibly causing planes to be out of location.
Just part of the equation of the game.

_____________________________


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Post #: 4161
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/23/2016 1:07:34 AM   
Alfred

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't think radar affects AA. I read through much of the information suggested by Alfred. In several places there were clear statements to that effect.

Did you catch Alfred's comment that due to the peculiarities of the radar algorithm, there may be instances in which you're better off not having radar! (At least, that's what I understood him to say.) There's been no further explanation or elaboration on that point, but I hope there will be.


Correct on both counts.

Re: being worse off with radar, look for theElf's post (#16) in this thread.

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2631648&mpage=1&key=radar

As to the experience levels. Those base forces overall have poor experience levels. I said it was an under the hood factor but in general terms, whenever anything in the game takes into account an experience level, 50% seems to be the minimum level for it to pass regularly whatever checks are in place.

I don't have the DaBabes cruise speeds but for scenario 1 there is a substantial delta between the Tony/Tojo at 249 mph and Sally/Helen at 202/210 with the Zero bracketed with the bombers.

There is another dev quote I'll see if I have time to track down.

Alfred

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4162
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/23/2016 1:54:21 AM   
BBfanboy


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From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		It's now obvious - your radar is being interfered with by your mountains of supply at Sabang (or maybe it's just the swarms of malarial mosquitoes).

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4163
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/23/2016 2:14:01 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2/13/43

The first thought upon awakening: It's quiet! Then: I got some sleep last night!

The Commanchee hadn't attacked. There had been a few alarms, but all the settlers had gotten much needed rest. So had Clint.

Battle of Sumatra: No IJA sweeps. John stands down his fighters, which gives the Allied fighters much need rest, time to repair aircraft that needed it, and lower fatigue levels for the pilots. Allied fighter numbers are back up to 400 - about 10 or so less than when all the shooting began four turns back. The number of available fighters for next turn:
1. F4F - 125
2. P40E - 26
3. Buffalo - 18
4. F4U-1 - 17
5. Beaufighter - 9
6. Kittyhawk III - 5
7. P40K - 72
8. P38G - 24
9. P39D - 22

Total fighters available 318, which is almost 70 more than last turn. Total fighters at the base (including those down for maintenance/repairs) is 400. And reinforcements are coming.

So, after three days of sweeps, the Allies are in about the same position they were when the sweeps began. IE, if the equation doesn't change, the Allies can hold out for a long time to come. And time is everything, as you know. But John is probably searching for a way to break the status quo - the logjam. And the more anxious he becomes, the more likely he is to pull the trigger on an all-out attack. And that's what has me nervous in Georgia.

The KB was no mirage. No hallucination. It shows up today and sinks an empty xAK or two outbound from Sabang (and Bettys from Sumatra sank two empty xAK). But 18k supply will arrive tonight. Right now, supply is 292k. Mouseover shows enemy carrier TF is the real thing - well over 300 aircraft (more like 400+).

Is this the anvil, positioned now to hit any ships fleeing Sabang as John is about to unleash an attack? Or is this simply a blocking maneuver to stop what must seem to John like an endless stream of traffic between Colombo and Sabang? I hope its the latter. The Allies can withstand any kind of siege or embargo strategy given the supply level. It's the hammer and anvil I'm worried about. John has a decent chance of prevailing in an all-out attack by sea.

4EB from Sabang targeted Mergui port and found the stricken Mutsu, damaged so very long ago in one of the naval battles of Assam. They scored nine hits against her - puny 500 pounders, but enough to show more fires. Bombs also hit two other ships.

John may flip the turn, so I may know tonight whether this is Hammer and Anvil or Blocking Position. Keep your fingers crossed that it's the latter. Each day now, the Allied fighter corps grows in strength.

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 4164
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/23/2016 5:06:34 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2/14/43

Today the wagons rolled for the first time in four days, though it had seemed like a month. Clint picked up Commanch sign here and there. He figured there was trouble ahead and behind. But now his people knew a bit about fighting.

Battle of Sumatra: The KB moved west, closing towards Diego Garcia. One squadron of Tojos (30 in number) swept Sabang and came out on the losing end. But I think these were scouts that served as sacrificial lambs. I think John wanted to make sure that my carrier fighters are still posted at Sabang. He might be thinking about raiding deeper into the Indian waters. I have enough separation to allow most ships at risk to clear out, though there would undoubtedly be some casualties if he moves fast enough.

NavSearch and recon show capital ships down around Medan and vicinity. Sightings in this area usually precede raids or bombardments. One of these days, maybe even next turn, the "big one" will come at Sabang.

The fact that John kinda sacrificed that one squadron of Tojos suggests that he wasn't saving up for a big sweep tomorrow (but I could be reading that wrongly). I hope he indeed stands down while he focuses on a carrier raid. The Allied fighter corps at Sabang is growing stronger. Here are the numbers ready for action tomorrow:

1. F4F - 113 (one squadron upgraded to F4U-1s)
2. P40E - 22
3. Buffalo - 18
4. F4U-1 - 17 (with 15 more being prepped by flight crews)
5. Beaufighter - 7
6. Kittyhawk III - 5
7. P40K - 79
8. P38G - 25
9. P39D - 23

Total fighters available is 309. Tomorrow I'll probably bring in the squadron at Calcutta that changed from P40E to P38E a few days back. Eight or 10 of the Lightnings should be ready. There's also a Buffalo squadron at Calcutta ready to make the jump, but I'll leave it in place until the KB threat ends. Overall, I currently have 396 fighters and 11 fighter-bombers at Sabang, which is almost identical to the numbers back on 9th, just before the sweeps began.

IJ subs sank a couple of inbound xAKs, but others arrived safely. For the first time, supply exceeds 300k. Sabang airfields is 8.97 and probably advances tomorrow. Forts are at 4.29. All effort goes into fort building beginning tomorrow.

John invaded Bandjermasin in numbers to take care of the KNIL partisans (AV - 2) there. This included a pre-invasion bombardment and bombing runs by Jills and Kates. I think he lost a Kate to ops. Two more Allied subs topped off with fuel. The Japanese will reclaim the base tomorrow.

We're half way through February. I feel a bit better about the air campaign (with much credit to the Peanut Gallery for so much helpful advice and input). It's still dicey to have limited fighters within range of a dozen or more big IJ air bases so that John can bring his entire air force to bear if he wishes to do so. I think he could overwhelm me by sustaining the campaign and feeding in Zeroes. But I hope he won't. If he doesn't, the air war can drag out a long, long time. So now thoughts turn to land and sea. I think the Allies can hold on the front line south of Langsa. So, to my way of thinking, John's either going to invade Langsa or he's going to bring the entire Japanese navy to Sabang. These are the feverish imaginings I contend with every turn. But overall things look okay at the moment.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/23/2016 6:08:10 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4165
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/23/2016 3:19:04 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John sent the wrong files this morning, so no turn until probably tonight. Hey, I can relax! Except...John included these comments in his email:

"I think it can be safely declared that we’ll know which way this fight in Sumatra will go by March 1st.

"What do you have against the good citizen’s of Tennant Creek? That last raid destroyed the lemonade stand on the corner of 1st Str and 2nd Ave. Considering there are only two streets and two avenues in the WHOLE hamlet, you might imagine the consternation and anger of the residents. Hope your bomber crews feel mighty bad about this!

"Don’t THINK I don’t see OTHER things happening..."

I evaluate this as genuine rather than misleading. I think he's decided he doesn't have time to win solely by waging an air war. Too, he probably knows a conventional ground campaign will take too long. So I think he's focusing on naval power (with John, doesn't it always come down to that?) My guess is either an invasion of Langsa or massive fleet action at Sabang. It'll be a combined arms thing, of course - meaning he'll employ everything - fighters, bombers, and probably KB posted as an anvil or in a blocking position.

Things will be dicey on the seas just as they have been in the air. The Allied fleet is badly outnumbered and surrounded by hostiles. But, again, help is on the way (though more slowly and in lesser numbers than I might hope for). Those Fletchers will be coming soon, and there are cruisers and fast BBs that will be coming.

I think John thinks the Tennant Creek bombing runs are a diversion. They aren't. They're intended to resemble a diversion.

As for his comment that he sees other things going on, I am as sure as I can possibly be that he's only picking up on those things he's intended to pick up on.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4166
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/23/2016 3:54:17 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

Canoerebel: As for his comment that he sees other things going on, I am as sure as I can possibly be that he's only picking up on those things he's intended to pick up on.


I had forgotten that you have pulled off some pretty slick maskarovkas and misdirections in the past. Looking forward to hearing about your current ones when you are ready to reveal!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4167
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/23/2016 4:10:29 PM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 8262
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline 		I can´t believe just how much information he is giving you via email! Its a gold mine!

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 4168
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/23/2016 5:25:44 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The next major Allied amphibious operation will take place in June. The exact size and location will depend upon what's going on in Sumatra. If the Allies still hold Sabang, then John's attention and military forces will still be there. Another major factor is the air war - or more particularly the Allied fighter and bomber pools and how limited they are.

I'm nearly certain the next major offensive will come out of SWPac (Oz) and hit either Timor and vicininity or Rabaul and the Admiralties. Either way, I'll bypass the outer crust of IJ defenses in western Oz and the New Hebrides, striking deep instead. Operatiions of this nature will be much easier if John has to keep his focus on on Sumatra between now and summer. If he doesn't and begins to spread out his forces, I'll probably shift over to a CenPac campaign, again bypassing the outer crust to strike deep.

These plans depend on the Allied carrier force being massive, or truly a Death Star. I get enough CVs, CVLs, CVEs, and CVE conversions (special to this mod, I can convert a handful of AOs). So the plans depend in part on mainting the carrier fleet intact.

I don't want another major land mass invasion like Java, New Guinea, Philippines or Home Islands only because my airforce is relatively weak. I'm going to have a hard time rebuilding it anytime soon.

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 4169
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/24/2016 12:05:17 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2/15/43

Clint spent the morning on the trail ahead of the wagon, scouting for signs of Commanchee war parties. He'd picked up a trace here and there, but he wasn't sure whether the clues had been left to mislead the settlers. They were depending on him. He hoped for their sake and his that he was up to the task.

Battle of Sumatra:

No enemy sweeps today. KB moves back to a more central position between Sabang and Diego Garcia, able there to block traffic between Ceylon and Sumatra. I had briefly worried that John might have designs on Ceylon (now wouldn't that be something?), but I think he's focusing on Sumatra.

Mulling over his email comments today, I'm nearly positive this means an all-out naval strike on Sabang. HIs prediction of the immediacy of an outcome indicates it's not a ground war nor even an invasion of Langsa. Those would drag out, I think. And the air war will drag too. The only thing that offers him real short-term finality is to take control of Sabang by sea so that he can bombard it to death. So that's what I'm focusing on, though still planning for other possibilities plus combinations.

The naval war is problematic short term. I don't have that much at Sabang, and the KB prevents me from brining in more short term (not to mention that the Fletchers won't be ready at Colombo for about five days). There is a host of combat shipping at nearby Medan, a setting that has always preceded a big raid on Sabang. I want to cross John up a bit - delay him and give him a scenario other than what he's expecting. So I'm disbanding all ASW and merchants. I'll leave the port guarded only by PT boats. The three combat TFs (the big Indiana TF, the 5 USN DD TF, and the RN CA Dorsetshire TF will head out of port tonight. Some of them might target enemy merchant shipping at close by ports (like Phuket). But mainly the idea is to clear Sabang overnight, allow enemy combat TFs to come in (facing mines and PT boats) and for the Allied ships to return in the morning. If successful, John has lost a day. Plus it adds to things he has to consider - does he then consider sending in a bombardment TF against such a strategy? If so, is that bombardment TF at a disadvantage?

As for tonight, vacating the port is risky. If John crosses me up by sending in a huge combo of combat TFs PLUS bombardment TFs, he'll rip the base to shreds. But I've considered this and think it's far more likely he'll want to joust via combat.

As for the air war, the Allied fighter corps at Sabang is now at its strongest:

1. F4F - 125
2. F4U-1 - 20
3. P40E - 33
4. Buffalo - 18
5. Beaufighter - 10
6. Kittyhawk III - 7
7. P40K - 91
8. P38G - 26
9. P38E - 7
10. P39D - 27

The Allies thus have 364 fighters ready this turn. The total fighter corps at the base is 438 (plus 11 fighter-bombers).

Sabang airfield is 8.99, forts at 4.32, supply at 302k. AV at the base is 600, with 1st Marines the backbone.
Langsa has 350 AV behind 3 forts. The adjacent hex blocking the land route to Langsa has 1500 AV in jungle terrain. Two divisions there are behind 3 forts. The rest are part of the rotating "march towards Langsa" effort that always keeps meaningful reinforcements just a day or two away from that key port.

DEI: The Japanese reclaim Bandjermasin.

NoPac: A USA infantry regiment long ago booted out of Cold Bay then retreated up the peninsula to the next dot hex. A few months back, I sent them back towards Cold Bay. The've just arrived in the adjacent hex. I think John noticed them. I think this is what prompted his "I know what's going on" comment in his last email.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/24/2016 1:22:57 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4170
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