Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

One of the perils every player must contend with is Victory Disease. We all have a general idea as to what it is: the idea that, after a victory or series of victories, further success is almost inevitable so that we let down our guard or forget to take the precautions necessary to avoid defeat and disaster.

Nearly every writer of an AAR is accused, from time to time, of suffering from Victory Disease. It can be a particularly noxious accusation, for oftentimes it's leveled by casual readers who are not fully aware of all the thinking and planning and precautions that went into the plan that went awry.

The Allies are about to engage in a new offensive operation. Since it follows so closely on the heals of Operation Circus, which I think has been fabulously successful, the setting is ripe for Victory Disease or accusation of Victory Disease. So I wanted to address my thinking as I transition from Circus to Roller Coaster.

The Allies have not become sufficiently powerful yet to meet Steriod KB head on. But the Allies are powerful enough to move strongly in less hostile environments, and failing to take advantage of favorable conditions would be counterproductive.

At present, at least seven Japanese BBs and a Mini KB are confirmed posted near Sabang, and a strong Half KB is posted in the Aluetians. This means that the Allies can achieve local superiority by concentrating elsewhere (if I am able to move under the current conditions), which is the plan behind Roller Coaster.

There of course is danger here. John will have interlocking bases with airfields, so enemy strike aircraft are a threat. At the moment, though, the enemy should be at a sizeable disadvantage in surface combat assets, and I don't think there is a concentration of IJ subs in the Roller Coaster area of operations. The Allies will target at least four bases and perhaps as many as seven. If successful, I'll then have my own interlocking network of bases in a position that threatens the flank of major Japanese bases to the southwest and which opens up CenPac to future moves.

We're about to transition into a new phase of the war (though, as any player knows, a defeat or major losses might setback the clock for months). In '42 and well into '43, it's very helpful to essential for the Allies to utilize suprise to attain temporary superiority of numbers at any point of attack. At some point in mid or late '43, however, the Allied OOB is strong enough that surprise, while still beneficial, is no longer critical. The Allies at that point can simply plan well, combine all available forces, and hit the enemy directly and hard. In that situation, using valuable time or bleeding off the assets needed to create feints required to achieve surprise can be counterproductive.

Barring major losses, I think Roller Coaster will be the last "early war" operation that requires surprise. If suprrise is achieved, the operation is worthwile and should succeed, and the risk is worth it. After Roller Coaster, the Allies may soon have enough power to face the enemy head on, as is the plan with Operation Carnival and the invasions of the remaining IJ bases in the Aleutians.

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Technical note: rebuild them with the oldest squads you can to use up those pools and then upgrade. Otherwise the old type squads will be wasted (they will upgrade slowly in the pools but it takes forever). You can't choose what squads they have when they are repurchased, but you can avoid upgrading. Might not be a factor, but check your pools before you decide.

quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Technical note: rebuild them with the oldest squads you can to use up those pools and then upgrade. Otherwise the old type squads will be wasted (they will upgrade slowly in the pools but it takes forever). You can't choose what squads they have when they are repurchased, but you can avoid upgrading. Might not be a factor, but check your pools before you decide.

You have no control over this. They will generally return set with the latest squads and devices. Too bad, but you can't roll them back.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

I am realizing more and more how hard it is to comment on anything on the board (or by commenting, not comment on something else) when reading both AAR's without maybe giving away information even subconsciously.

Fascinating read :]

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Night Time Surface Combat, near Adak Island at 162,52, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CB Kawachi
CA Haguro, Shell hits 29, Torpedo hits 1
CA Mikuma, Shell hits 10, Torpedo hits 1
CL Nagara
CL Isuzu
DD Kishinami, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Isokaze, Shell hits 5
DD Shiranui, Shell hits 5, heavy fires
DD Yamakaze

Allied Ships
CLAA San Juan, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
DD Fletcher
DD Abbot
DD Chevalier, Shell hits 3
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 1
DD Renshaw, Shell hits 1
DD Taylor
DD Frazier, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage later sank
DD Worden


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Night Time Surface Combat, near Adak Island at 162,52, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CB Kawachi
CL Nagara
CL Isuzu
DD Kishinami
DD Isokaze

Allied Ships
DD Worden, Shell hits 24, and is sunk


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Night Time Surface Combat, near Adak Island at 162,52, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CB Kawachi
CL Nagara
CL Isuzu
DD Kishinami
DD Isokaze

Allied Ships
xAK Bald Eagle, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
xAK Trade Wind, Shell hits 13, and is sunk

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 8 (8 destroyed, 0 disabled)


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Day Time Surface Combat, near Adak Island at 161,52, Range 6,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CB Kawachi, Shell hits 1
CL Nagara
CL Isuzu, Shell hits 4
DD Kishinami, Shell hits 17, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Isokaze, Shell hits 13, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Abbot, Shell hits 3
DD Chevalier
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
DD Renshaw, Shell hits 2
DD Taylor, Shell hits 1

quote:

Amchitka airfield hit again. P47 and P38G sweeps again get the best of the defenders (Tojos and Tonys), prompting John to remark how he likes fighting over his own bases since pilot losses are lower.