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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/3/2016 4:13:37 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Keeping track of Big Tent/Third Ring Fuel and Supply:

1. Fuel: Boela ships have 105k to unload; 75k is aboard xAKs inbound from Cooktown; AOs with Death Star have 20k remaining; Boela itself has 7k; and Normanton will draw some from Oz in a pinch. Total reserves approximately 207k. Most combat and carrier TFs just topped off. There should be enough fuel to permit ops in Big Tent for another month, primarily dealing with Merauke and Ambon and then, during egress, with Horn Island. I'll need to leave some fuel behind for combat ships and other shipping that will remain with Big Tent. Conclusion: fuel stores are okay, but bear monitoring.

2. Supply: 240k remains aboard ships at Boela. Boela has 110k; Sorong 170k; Manokwari 38k; Morotai 48k; all other bases have lesser amounts (some - especially Ambon - will require a decent amount; Merauka-bound ships are carrying enough to stock that base, once taken). Sorong no longer has a supply limit, and Boela won't fairly soon. Once Death Star returns, supply distribution will recommence. I think it can be wrapped up in a week to ten days. I'll leave some supply aboard ships at Boela to meet emergency future needs. Conclusion: supply distribution won't take very long.

3. Bases: the primary remaining mission is to take Ambon.

4. Conclusion: if John doesn't slow down the tempo, Big Tent is definitely on schedule to wrap up in January; if he does attack, there's the opportunity to attrition Kaigun. How to entice him to attack? Planning is in progress.

(in reply to BillBrown)
Post #: 7861
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/3/2016 6:04:34 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		Man, talk about an Allied wet dream of a unit. 432 Naval Support!

(in reply to BillBrown)
Post #: 7862
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/3/2016 2:53:38 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		I think earlier there was a posting discouraging shock attacks. Besides the mandatory conditions .. I can think of at least one reason to shock. Giving blood for time. Given an adequate firepower or AV advantage, Some certain advantage exists, especially combinations of disruption, supply, leadership, movement mode etc and those conditions might be fleeting.
So the idea is maximizing a shock(+) advantage against one or more disadvantages that will/might be changing with time. Certainly the casualties will be higher but with enough advantages it can be devastating turning a possibly defensible position with simple combat rolls into a rout ..with a higher loss to the attacker ..

One other observation at this point in this game .. I have no clue about the OOB for the I but it has been mentioned that the IJ get more "toys" in 1944 ... I might propose given John's ADHD and propensity to chase shiny objects .. this might be an ironic petard to fall on ...
My experience with just scenario ones toys (forget the IJN wet dream) is that the IJ begins to think about rationing fuel between production and using the navy to project power sometime in 1944 .. more toys means more fuel expenditure .. I might even suggest that CanoeRebel's push into the DEI sets an earlier date for this crucial decision.
More (naval) toys and less fuel what a sudden and I feel certain destiny very soon given this particular scenario ...

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 7863
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/3/2016 8:22:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/26/43

Third Ring: Sometimes when I encounter reams of information in running a turn, I'm uncertain about what to do next and tentative in issuing orders. At other times, an inspiration strikes; a plan comes together; and issuing the orders is easy. That doesn't mean the plan is the right one, only that it seems "right" at the time. Such was the case with this turn. Tons of information. Lots to process. But I quickly happened upon a plan that I like.

The turn began with this email message from John: "Looks like Christmas (for one side or the other) might come just a day or two late. The truly sad part about this moment is that I have to work all day.  The next few turns might be quite fun Mr. Roper."

Fully alerted by John's playful comments, I sat up to watch the turn unfold. Little if anything came to light to confirm his intentions, so I deduced as best I could and, as stated, devised a plan of my own.

Horn Island is ringed by IJN subs. Death Star is posted just to the SW, Micro Death Star just to the SE. The natural thing for John would be to conclude that Horn Island is the immediate objective. Perhaps he'll flood the Torres Straits with combat ships. Maybe he's loading up his closest airfields. Perhaps KB is close enough to pounce.

That's the most likely scenario. I don't want to take undo risks in those tight waters with my CVEs and merchant ships, but I do want to force passage to test John's preparation. (Doing so will help me when DS egresses at the conclusion of Big Tent). So an RN DD TF will move out from Portland Roads, followed by a stronger USN cruiser TF. They will make for the Gulf of Carpentaria, aiming to rendezvous with Death Star. Micro Death Star, a combat TF, and merchantmen will remain at Portland Roads under a decent CAP umbrella, partly to serve as bait and to distract enemy strike aircraft if they're out there.

Death Star and the Herd will veer strongly northwest and make for Merauke. I'm hoping this will leave the subs behind at Horn, temporarily providing a clear route of ingress. It still looks to me like Merauke is shut down and hasn't been reinforced. D-Day will be the day after tomorrow.

Big Tent: It is possible that John is decoying the Torres Strait while preparing to move in Big Tent (or, far less likely, in the Marshalls, which would be a misallocation of force beyond my wildest dreams). John is persistently reconning Manokwari and Sorong, while mostly ignoring Boela and other bases. So my hunch is that those would be the targets for lightning strikes - bombardments and attacks by KB strike aircraft being most likely. He might also invade Biak or other smaller bases (I can't imagine he'd try to take on the bigger ones). My chief concern is the shipping at Boela, where 300+ ships are in port. So I'm beefing up CAP and leaving the major combat TFs in place.

Today, four USN DDs raided Ambon (again), sinking a PB at Namlea and then tangling with CL Nagara and three DD at the target hex. DD Oite is set afire. No other ships on either side take serious damage. This behavior is a little odd - John's not ganging up on my little TFs and he's risking what seem to me to be high-value assets. Hmm.

SigInt continues to provide plentiful information as to where John's reinforcements are going; what he deems important.

Let's see what tomorrow holds.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 7864
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 1:03:22 PM   
dave sindel

 

Posts: 488
Joined: 3/13/2006
From: Millersburg, OH
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/26/43

Third Ring: Sometimes when I encounter reams of information in running a turn, I'm uncertain about what to do next and tentative in issuing orders. At other times, an inspiration strikes; a plan comes together; and issuing the orders is easy. That doesn't mean the plan is the right one, only that it seems "right" at the time. Such was the case with this turn. Tons of information. Lots to process. But I quickly happened upon a plan that I like.




I can certainly relate to this sentiment. After watching the combat replay, usually I will stare at the strategic map and say to myself "now what do I do?". That's the norm - inspirations are more rare. Plus a couple of my inspirations turned into unmitigated disasters, so I am a lot less inclined to follow them...

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7865
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 1:34:57 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		Horn Island - Maybe its too late, but I would have used fast DM, subs, and other minelaying warships to mine both shallow hexes to NE and SW. With the reef hexsides to west of base, you would make it hazardous for John to send anything through the area. I would have placed DBs at Portland Roads set to cover any attempts by John to sweep them away since your B-24s have closed the AF.

_____________________________


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Post #: 7866
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 1:46:41 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Horn Island - Maybe its too late, but I would have used fast DM, subs, and other minelaying warships to mine both shallow hexes to NE and SW. With the reef hexsides to west of base, you would make it hazardous for John to send anything through the area.


Isn't it likely that the Japanese have already done the exact same thing? I'm wondering if Allied ships can get through there very easily, or get through at all.

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 7867
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 1:48:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		You wouldn't if you were me. If you were me, you would have already depleted your mine stocks trying to protect Boela, Sorong and Morotai (and, before that, the bases in the Marshalls). But even if I did have mines, I wouldn't sew them in ocean waters unless I had plenty in stock or was fairly certain that John would send combat ships that way. I do have DMs at Boela, but they are currently drumming their fingers, hoping U.S. production will generate new stockpiles of mines.

I rotate dive bombers, Beauforts, reconnaissance aircraft, and PBYs out of Portland Roads for the reason you mention.

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 7868
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 1:50:55 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf
Isn't it likely that the Japanese have already done the exact same thing? I'm wondering if Allied ships can get through there very easily, or get through at all.


Yes! That's one reason I wanted to force a passage through the Torres Strait - to see how John has configured his defenses there. So I'm risking some USN combat ships (DDs plus a CL and a CA or two) to make the passage this turn. That will help me know how to approach the Strait a month from now, when the Herd prepares to egress into the Coral Sea. (I hope, in the meantime, that John has shot his wad early, mistaking the current deployment as a move on Horn Island).

(in reply to jwolf)
Post #: 7869
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 2:03:06 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You wouldn't if you were me. If you were me, you would have already depleted your mine stocks trying to protect Boela, Sorong and Morotai (and, before that, the bases in the Marshalls). But even if I did have mines, I wouldn't sew them in ocean waters unless I had plenty in stock or was fairly certain that John would send combat ships that way. I do have DMs at Boela, but they are currently drumming their fingers, hoping U.S. production will generate new stockpiles of mines.

I rotate dive bombers, Beauforts, reconnaissance aircraft, and PBYs out of Portland Roads for the reason you mention.


You should also be able to drop aerial mines as of 44.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7870
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 2:03:38 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Only if you know what you're doing. I don't.


(in reply to obvert)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 4:11:54 PM   
Bearcat2

 

Posts: 577
Joined: 2/14/2004
Status: offline 		After 43, Aircraft must have city attack chosen, [bottom left] mine port button

_____________________________

"After eight years as President I have only two regrets: that I have not shot Henry Clay or hanged John C. Calhoun."--1837

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7872
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 4:15:28 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		One day, I want to play in a game of poker with John. He has more "tells" than any player that I have seen.

_____________________________

I am the Holy Roman Emperor and am above grammar.

Sigismund of Luxemburg

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Post #: 7873
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 4:30:50 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

One day, I want to play in a game of poker with John. He has more "tells" than any player that I have seen.


John I think would be the kind of player all in before the flop .. thus not much opportunity for play ..
Pair over pair ..(5-1) 2 high cards over lower pair ..(about 50/50) 1 high card high over 2 cards... 2 high cards over 2 high cards ..
Pretty much every poker hand with the exceptions of the flushes and straights ...

Maybe a tell which one of the above and whether to call the all in ..

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 7874
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 5:57:53 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

One day, I want to play in a game of poker with John. He has more "tells" than any player that I have seen.


You don't need the quote marks. He would say "I have three jacks. Banzai!"

And mean it.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 7875
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 6:42:27 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/24/43

Third Ring: John's email comment: "This was a fun turn." That gave me heartburn, suggesting he liked what he saw. But the turn was quiet, favorably so for the Allies. Most of the details are on the map, but the important things:

1. Death Star and the Herd arrive safely and unmolested near Merauke. Invasion tomorrow.
2. Reinforcing TFs (four RN DDs and a USN CA/CL/DD TF) run the straits without incident and join Death Star. These are much needed, very welcome reinforcements. Go, boys, go!
3. John is trying to push reinforcements into Ambon, but they were turned back today by four USN DDs. CA Baltimore goes back to Ambon tonight.

What's John doing? Where? When?




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 7876
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 7:12:16 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		In flipping the turn back to John, I belatedly thought of something I wish I'd considered earlier.

My 4EB strikes at Tagula Island encountered 23 A6M8 Zero fighters. But the recon still reports no fighters there. I wonder if that's bleed-over CAP from KB? I checked, and here's what I found on the combat report:

CAP engaged:
Hiyo-1/B with A6M8 Zero (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(8 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Soryu-1 with A6M8 Zero (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(8 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Shokaku-1 with A6M8 Zero (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(4 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Ryukaku-1 with A6M8 Zero (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Taikaku-1 with A6M8 Zero (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Renkaku-1 with A6M8 Zero (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead

So KB is lurking out somewhere near Tagula. John must've been waiting for a chance to engage, hoping that his defenses at Horn Island might create cripples.

I think it might take him a high speed run to close on Death Star (not certain, but probably). He's pretty jazzed right now, so he might do something like that. But I'm guessing he won't. Perhaps he'll gang up on Micro Death Star.

I'm just guessing now. I don't know how desperate John is. But I am glad to know that KB is way out there. It won't be in position to interfere when the Ambon operation takes place.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7877
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 7:59:19 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline
quote:

Perhaps he'll gang up on Micro Death Star.


This appears the most likely to me. Do you have enough fighter support around there to make it painful for him?

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7878
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 8:05:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		If Micro DS makes it to Cooktown (no reason to think it won't), it'll have CAP of 177 fighters. That's not enough to withstand KB, of course. I'd probably lose those carriers and some combat ships. But KB would pay a toll in aircraft. It would be painful to have good ships sunk, but ultimately it might well be worth it.

John is probably operating on the assumption that the Allies were about to leave Big Tent. After all, the ships have been there for six weeks now. He's probably salivating at the prospects, both in the DEI and in the Coral Sea. But I think ops in Big Tent will take another three weeks or so. He might grow weary of waiting out there, bereft as an amorous husband hoping that his irritated wife will come to bed...eventually.

(in reply to jwolf)
Post #: 7879
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 9:03:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/28/43

Third Ring: A fine day for the Allies. See the map for many details. I haven't begun issuing orders yet, as I still have decisions to make. KB is near Milne Bay. John may be pursuing battle. Do I accept battle or retire to Big Tent waters?

Big Tent: John lost at least 20 merchantmen today at Namlea and Ambon. I am puzzled at his willingness to take punishment without (to this point) using it as an ambush generator. He's lost a heckuva lot of shipping without gain, as best I can tell. (The map reference to a tank unit attack took place at Ambon.)

Fun House: Many, many units are prepping now for the next big thing, just in case Big Tent/Third Ring continue to go well and then end well. Lots of fighting to come first, but a "best case scenario" isn't out of the question.

India: Both sides are moving a bit and feeling a bit. I've used my bombers to get John's attention a bit. Rather than wait and hope for an overwhelming sneak attack vs. Magwe on January 1, I wanted to tip John off. I do want to destroy his fuel, but I prefer for it to drag out and draw plenty of his air force this way.






Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/4/2016 9:08:39 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7880
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 10:53:16 PM   
bradfordkay

 

Posts: 8683
Joined: 3/24/2002
From: Olympia, WA
Status: offline 		If I had all my troops ashore at Merauke with enough supply to hold them a few days I would try to draw him into Big Tent where your LBA will come into play. Staying at Merauke seems like a setup to face both the KB and his LBA, which could be problematic for you. How up to date are your ship and carrier aircraft upgrades?

_____________________________

fair winds,
Brad

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7881
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/4/2016 11:50:14 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The decision is made, but first I'll answer Brad's questions: the troops are ashore - 1st Australian Div. (70% prepped, 37% fatigue, low disablements), Aussie I Corps, US 147 Arty, plus a small engineer unit and light AA. However, they don't have much supply. 1st Div. needs 1.1k and has 1.5k. So they can't stand on their own for long. Merauke is actually tough for his LBA. The only field he has that is open and close (8 hexes) is Gove. The others (Wau, Nadzab, Lae) are distant 10 hexes or so. So I don't think he can work a KB + LBA trap in any meaningful sense. My carriers are all 100% sorties, all fighter squadrons are full strength, pilot fatigue is low. Upgrades are complete on half the carriers and BB; the other half are due the 10/43 upgrades.

I think I won't offer battle here. The higher priority is still (temporarily) security for Big Tent and Third Ring. If I did lose a lopsided battle (unlikely but possible), I probably wouldn't be able to finish off Ambon or Merauke. My LOC would not be secure. Everything could come to naught.

What will things look like if I do move west? First, the empty transports that carried 1st Aussie Div. will move to Dobo to embark 2nd Marine Div., which will serve as reinforcements at Ambon. Second, I have a bunch of TFs loaded with the reinforcing troops slated for the Babar/Saumlaki/Taberfane complex (engineers, some infantry) and additional base forces for Boela. Some of these could probably unload even as Death Star moves west. There is also a possibility of detaching a small amphibious TF to make for Wessel Island, which I think is vacant.

The setting is complicated - a mixture of opportunity and risk. It's just been a lot of fun working all the angles of Big Tent and Third Ring.

John's email with this last turn was filled with vexation over work, but I think the larger part of that was over the ship losses at Ambon (and possibly with KB's position being revealed for no good purpose, or so I think).

(in reply to bradfordkay)
Post #: 7882
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/5/2016 12:15:22 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		Interesting situation. Some observations:

- The plethora of subs that were in Torres Strait seem to have gone into hiding. I thought they would be clustering at Merauke. One of the two subs that were at Gove the day previous ins not showing there any more.

- There is a TF of some kind next to the words "TIMOR SEA" - heavy ships perhaps?

- I think John has been waiting for you to get the DS pinned in place where he can reach with KB, LBA and perhaps SCTFs to use up all your strikes. Having to stay at Merauke does that. He will probably try to set up an eight-hex strike.
What he may not be paying attention to is that you have Portland Roads and Coen to support you and could easily move DS into the Gulf of Carpentaria behind Coen/Portland Roads and have LBA supporting you. Heck you could even use your Micro DS to nip at his heels and distract him.

The big question is when can you get some other kind of CAP over Merauke's invasion shipping?

EDIT: was typing up the above before your post about proceeding with your BT operation. I did not think you would be able to up anchor at Merauke so soon, but since you can - I concur with your priorities. Now the pressure will be on John to decide whether to pass through Torres Strait seeking battle.


< Message edited by BBfanboy -- 11/5/2016 12:19:53 AM >

_____________________________

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7883
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/5/2016 12:53:55 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The TF in the Timor Sea looks like transports (and has been acting like that too). John may have a combat TF presence in the DEI, but I think the recent attrition at Ambon and the torpedoing of Nagato left him shy. At least, he's acting like he doesn't have anything there.

It does look like he was primed to pounce at the Torres Straits. I don't think he forces the straits, but I'll be watching raptly.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 7884
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/5/2016 1:07:49 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The TF in the Timor Sea looks like transports (and has been acting like that too). John may have a combat TF presence in the DEI, but I think the recent attrition at Ambon and the torpedoing of Nagato left him shy. At least, he's acting like he doesn't have anything there.

It does look like he was primed to pounce at the Torres Straits. I don't think he forces the straits, but I'll be watching raptly.

Looks like John gets a (belated) lump of coal for Christmas 1943!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7885
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/5/2016 7:41:46 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

CAP engaged:
Hiyo-1/B with A6M8 Zero (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(8 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Soryu-1 with A6M8 Zero (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(8 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Shokaku-1 with A6M8 Zero (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(4 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Ryukaku-1 with A6M8 Zero (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Taikaku-1 with A6M8 Zero (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Renkaku-1 with A6M8 Zero (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead

So KB is lurking out somewhere near Tagula. John must've been waiting for a chance to engage, hoping that his defenses at Horn Island might create cripples.



Obvert, take note. This is one enormous reason to not run range on your CAP, although the "Carrier support unable to supply air cover" message will still show up if you have groups set to 0% CAP and within their range setting (i.e., your carrier strike escorts). The key tell here is the "diverted to support" message - that shows up when CAP leaks over. I call it LeakyCAP .

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7886
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/5/2016 4:21:39 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		By late 43 you are pretty sure if zeros show up in a fight that KB is nearby. As a land based fighter they are more of a last ditch thing and I rarely find them in the front lines. As the Allies, you get about four reserve VF squadrons of Hellcats by late 43. I like to spread them around the map to keep my opponent guessing. Difference is that they are Hellcats and still pretty good for front line use so not uncommon. But Zeros-not as likely.

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(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 7887
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/5/2016 6:36:31 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John has a busy Saturday and has been courteous in giving notice of when turns aren't coming and when they are, which is much appreciated. I don't think I'll have a turn until late tonight or tomorrow morning.

His body language suggests that the events of the past few days might've taken some of the wind out of his sails - the debacle at Ambon, where he's lost so much shipping (partly he attributes this to oversight in giving orders to retire that he meant to give, but which he lost track of amidst a hectic work schedule) and the failure to spring the long-awaited ambush in the Torres Straits.

The next turn will have a large bearing on what happens next. If KB passes through the straits, Death Star will have its hand full for the foreseeable future. The order of the day will then be more defensive than offensive. But if KB stays east of the straits - and if SigInt continues to show that John has his heart set on creating a ring of steel around Big Tent extending as far as the Coral Sea...then Death Star will be in an offensive mode.

My preference remains to secure the Torres Straits, as it is the most efficient LOC from Death Star to friendly waters. But if John keeps lurking there, making passage risky, there is another option that I am evaluating. With KB out of the way, the Timor Sea offers a route of egress to southwestern Oz. Big bases at Darwin and Koepang (and probably a few on the Oz coast, as at Broome and Exmouth) are threats, but not grave ones without KB's assistance. I could move on several likely-vacant bases - Bathhurst Island, Roti, Waingapoe, and the Flores Island bases, and perhaps Wyndham. Doing so would further isolate Darwin and elevate the crisis in the DEI. Doing so would put KB further out of position and probably force John to react sharply in the DEI, where he'd have to risk the Kaigun to stop the infection.

As stated, my preference remains the Torres Strait, but this option is one worth considering.

There is also an "in between" - taking a few of these bases - Bathhurst chief among them - springing many of my empty transports into the Indian Ocean (where they could begin the long journey home to Pearl, where they'll be used for Fun House), and then keeping Death Star in the DEI for at least a month, maybe longer, before wrapping things up. And I can even see one possibility where DS remains in Big Tent until Fun House, keeping John focused here until DS was needed. It would be shorter to Fun House from Big Tent than from Hawaii.

The ultimate objective is to keep the pressure on, forcing John to react in less than favorable circumstances, so that the bleeding of his navy continues. I think the current situation - the lack of combat ships in the DEI - proves that his navy is in brittle condition.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/5/2016 6:40:13 PM >

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 7888
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/5/2016 7:50:17 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Taking a page out of Sherman's book - the defensive offensive...putting yourself in a position where your opponent has no choice but to attack you, which serves your ultimate purpose in bleeding him.

I don't understand why he's being so cavalier with his carriers, especially after what happened off Wake.

I swear, if John isn't the living embodiment of John Bell Hood, I don't know who is....

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7889
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/5/2016 8:36:33 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

Taking a page out of Sherman's book - the defensive offensive...putting yourself in a position where your opponent has no choice but to attack you, which serves your ultimate purpose in bleeding him.

I don't understand why he's being so cavalier with his carriers, especially after what happened off Wake.

I swear, if John isn't the living embodiment of John Bell Hood, I don't know who is....


Even leading up to Wake he was jaunting all over the place burning up fuel and probably collecting some OP damage. Inside the DEI fule wont be an issue (for now) but the KB is all over the place and every drop of fuel is one less air-frame in 6 months

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 7890
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