RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/14/2016 5:48:09 PM

Canoerebel

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Well, that could be. If so, he'll probably commence landing at Satawal next turn. I have about 30 AV there, but they aren't "strong" troops - a New Caledonia unit detachment and a USAAF base force. They might hold for a day or two, though a big BB bombardment might be enough to neuter them. There's nothing further I'd do in regards to defending the base, other than moving the PBY squadron to New Guinea in time to prevent its destruction, if possible.

(in reply to Lokasenna)

Post #: 7951

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 1:46:34 AM

Canoerebel

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1/4/44 Part I

Roller Coaster: The fish rises to take the bait. John sent KB to the Marshalls, probably to chase down the BB Colorado TF that's been bombarding Kwajalein. But that TF had already bugged out, heading east.

If KB is covering merchant ships that are picking up garrisons from advanced, exposed bases, that makes a little bit of sense to me. But if it's actually hunting Colorado or other shipping....

There is some shipping at Maloelap and adjacent islands. See map.

Allied units at Kwaj stood down today and will probably rest one more day before resuming the assault. Kwaj really isn't important to either side now, but John may not see things that way.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 2:02:02 AM

Dirtnap86

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CR, what kind of LBA do you have in the Marshalls? You note that Wotje has 150 fighters, got anything that can sling torpedoes at the KB there?

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Post #: 7953

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 2:02:38 AM

Canoerebel

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1/5/44 Part II

Third Ring: 1st Australian Division takes Merauke today on a 10:1 attack. This base was reduced quickly (three attacks), thanks to prolonged bombing and an embargo enforced two weeks back by Death Star. Here's hoping that the Horn Island invasion goes as well. The fall of Merauke is the first big conquest of Third Ring.

Big Tent: Death Star is in a good position to cover the final supply distribution missions. Morotai and Manokwari will get another 40k each. Sorong already has 210k and only needs fuel, of which she'll get about 40k.

While that's going on, I'll try to unload the remaining supply and fuel at Boela, but the poor little port is currently over capacity in ships. I do intend to leave behind some xAKs with fuel and supply to handle needs as they arise. Big Tent will also have three of four combat TFs plus ASW TFs to provide protection from enemy combat ships. Protection from KB and LBA comes in the form of good fighter squadrons at the big airfields. Big Tent isn't immune from counterattack, but taking the big bases will be very difficult for John.

Fun House: I have a week or two before I must make a major decision. Initiate Fun House from Big Tent or from Hawaii. The latter is probably more fuel efficient (Hawaii having fast stockpiles), but the former allows me to keep DS in the vicinity of Big Tent, in case of emergency, and to continue whittling away John's bases, especially if he leaves KB out of position. I'm leaning towards the Big Tent orientation, but even if I swing that way, there are many sub-decisions to be made.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/15/2016 2:03:12 AM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 2:04:47 AM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Dirtnap86
CR, what kind of LBA do you have in the Marshalls? You note that Wotje has 150 fighters, got anything that can sling torpedoes at the KB there?

I have TBFs and Beauforts in the Marshalls, but I don't expect to use them. I doubt they'd get through even if I committed all fighters to escort duty. In all likelihood, I'd simply lose 125 or 150 aircraft. I think the better course is to use my fighters defensively to blunt KB's air arm if John keeps coming.

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Post #: 7955

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 3:46:01 AM

bradfordkay

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That TF has a reported northwest heading, so I don't think it's inbound to Satawal. But John is reconning the base daily, so he'll be there soon...just in time for Big Tent to wrap up. But taking the base will be a big help for him, as it will allow him to approach Big Tent from the north more surreptitiously.

Doesn't he need a 00 operative to take out your secret island base?

_____________________________

fair winds,
Brad

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Post #: 7956

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 7:43:56 AM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: bradfordkay

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That TF has a reported northwest heading, so I don't think it's inbound to Satawal. But John is reconning the base daily, so he'll be there soon...just in time for Big Tent to wrap up. But taking the base will be a big help for him, as it will allow him to approach Big Tent from the north more surreptitiously.

Doesn't he need a 00 operative to take out your secret island base?

Only if there's an extinct volcano. Satawal is a coral atoll.

It's in the rules.

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Post #: 7957

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 8:31:56 AM

Grollub

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DW

quote:

ORIGINAL: bradfordkay

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That TF has a reported northwest heading, so I don't think it's inbound to Satawal. But John is reconning the base daily, so he'll be there soon...just in time for Big Tent to wrap up. But taking the base will be a big help for him, as it will allow him to approach Big Tent from the north more surreptitiously.

Doesn't he need a 00 operative to take out your secret island base?

Only if there's an extinct volcano. Satawal is a coral atoll.

It's in the rules.

_____________________________

�Not mastering metaphores is like cooking pasta when the train is delayed"

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 12:35:11 PM

Cap Mandrake

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There has got to be a funny story in moving Pacific Fleet HQ to Boela from the vacation spot of Pearl Harbor. How did that go over with staff...wives..girlfriends/boyfriends, local bars, golf courses, etc.?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 12:56:10 PM

Cap Mandrake

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Boela, 1944...the Royal Boela Hotel (20 cent Mai Tais) and beach facilities with the surfing school are just beyond the picture in the foreground. You can see the pit BBQ for the luau in the background.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 12:58:14 PM

Canoerebel

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No doubt a clever storyteller could weave an interesting narrative about Pac HQ!

I included it in Big Tent because I needed naval support above all else. Many units were strategic-loaded aboard ships in order to economize on space. Coming ashore at size one (or less) ports was going to be a real issue. Too, I figured that Manokwari and Sorong would be the focal points of the campaign that would follow. That has changed, a bit, as Boela has become the key base - it's a little more protected from enemy raids than any of the other bases. But it doesn't have much naval support - I need more to unload the remaining supply and fuel before Death Star and the Herd depart.

Long explanation that isn't an interesting narrative but does explain how this high-value unit ended up in the midst of an operation behind the front lines.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 1:11:22 PM

Cap Mandrake

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Yes, unloading strat-loaded units without docking is painfully slow...and essentially stops when you get to heavy equipment.

Nothing wrong with making them work for their paycheck. Besides, tonic water has quinine and will help prevent malaria. They may have to relax the rules on dress whites.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 1:12:50 PM

Canoerebel

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See? A gifted storyteller!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 1:15:53 PM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

See? A gifted storyteller!

Ask him how dress whites came into fashion!

_____________________________

Intel Monkey: https://sites.google.com/view/staffmonkeys/home

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Post #: 7964

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 4:41:40 PM

Canoerebel

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1/6/44

It's a game of hexes, and today those hexes favored the Allies. Through a mixture of planning and luck and bad timing, the Kaigun suffers major attrition.

Big Tent: BBs Yamato and Mutsu flagged a TF that spent the turn a hex from Morotai, probably inbound on a bombardment mission. By shear chance, Death Star spent the turn six hexes away, protecting the herd at Sorong. All DS strike aircraft were set to range six, and this time the flew in numbers, encountering meager CAP that the American fighters wept aside. The end result was a bitter harvest for John, and a surprising victory for me.

The first big wave of strike aircraft put 20 bombs and 2 torps into Yamato, and 13 bombs and two torps into Mutsu. Smaller follow-up strikes finished off Mutsu with four more TT and left Yamato a "heavy fires, heavy damage" hulk with with two more TTs. One IJN DD took two bombs with "heavy fires, heavy damage."

It is probable that John will pull his shipping back in the face of Death Star. If so, the unfolding missions to Morotai and Manokwari should go smoothly. Morotai will come first, as the transports can move in tandem with DS, which will move to a point just north of Morotai in hopes of finishing off Yamato, if she's still afloat.

So the threat level to the logistics missions to Morotai, Manokwari and Sorong are dialed down a bit. These should be wrapped up inside of three or four days.

Four RN DDs sank a few xAKs and an SC at Dili.

What of KB? It's over near the Marshalls and didn't fly any strikes today. John did get a navsearch report about BB Colorado, which is some 18 hexes to the east of KB. He might pull the trigger on pursuit, since he's got to be mad as a wet dog, but I doubt it.

With KB out of position and with the Kaigun further attrited, there may not be any real deterrent to Death Star in the entire DEI at the moment. There are subs; there are some combat TFs; and there is LBA; but there's nothing that of itself can pose a threat to DS (I think).

Fuel supplies bear watching, and Allied troops are mostly committed now, but I'm pondering possibilities in the DEI. Yesterday I'd already changed prep to Alor, a base north of Dili, for one of the few units I have in reserve (and, for another unit, to Bathurst Island). It really is nearly time for Big Tent to wind down, and opening the Torres Strait remains critical. But the void that seems to exist in the DEI presents quite an opportunity.

To this point, John's been focusing on cauterizing Big Tent and preparing to attack forward. Eventually, I think, he'll realize that he no longer has the luxury of thinking "forward" when his rear is so vulnerable. Does he realize that or not?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 4:50:12 PM

Canoerebel

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Details regarding the strikes v. Yamato and Mutsu:

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Morotai at 81,100

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 29 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 3
N1K1-J George x 3
Ki-84a Frank x 4

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 169
SB2C-1C Helldiver x 60
SBD-5 Dauntless x 9
TBF-1 Avenger x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M8 Zero: 2 destroyed
N1K1-J George: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 3 destroyed
SB2C-1C Helldiver: 15 damaged
SBD-5 Dauntless: 1 damaged
TBF-1 Avenger: 2 damaged
TBF-1 Avenger: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese Ships
BB Yamato, Bomb hits 20, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires
BB Mutsu, Bomb hits 13, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires
DD Arashio
DD Haruzuki, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Asahikari
DD Natsukaze

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Morotai at 81,100

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 61 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 28 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84a Frank x 3

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 22
TBF-1 Avenger x 8

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
TBF-1 Avenger: 2 damaged
TBF-1 Avenger: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese Ships
BB Mutsu, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
BB Yamato, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Morotai at 81,100

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 5,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 38 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84a Frank x 2

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 8
TBF-1 Avenger x 10

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
TBF-1 Avenger: 1 destroyed

Japanese Ships
BB Yamato, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Natsukaze

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Post #: 7966

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 5:06:12 PM

paullus99

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There is a chance that Yamato won't sink, but not a very good one.

John is really going to feel that one & it'll definitely hurt. He either wasn't paying attention to where your carriers were or just assumed that they'd get in, bombard, and be gone....which is just a recipe for disaster.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 5:28:38 PM

Canoerebel

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Bombardments seem to cause a lot of consternation. I know SqzMyLemon's thread just addressed it in detail. Here is John's email comment (sent just a few minutes ago to avoid tipping off the surprise): "I have decided to give up on any and all forms of bombardments.� This is not THREE times (once in the Marshalls and once in this region) that my bombardment TF is set for FULL Speed to hit a location and then decides not to bombard and STAYS is prime strike range.� Paid for it severely and just want shake my fist at the gaming Gods."�

Bombardments work and are important, but getting them right can be ticklish. I use them, but I never use them at max range or setting my ships to full speed. If I can't orchestrate it so that my ships are at a range of six or seven (at the most), I just don't do it. Too much of a chance of having something like this happen. If I don't have good CAP or otherwise feel confident that enemy strike aircraft aren't present, I further dial down any thoughts about using a bombardment mission. There are plenty of chances to employ the mission under these more favorable circumstances.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 5:50:13 PM

Lokasenna

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If he was even 1 hex away from a single Full speed phase, they wouldn't have gone in to bombard. Likewise if the escorts reached the critical level of fuel for the run.

There are tricks to make your bombardments always go in when you want them to. The range on the day before is an important one. Another important one is setting Do Not Refuel... I'm not saying that's what happened to him here, but it's possible.

All that said, I think he made a mistake in trying it in this situation in the first place.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 6:26:40 PM

paullus99

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I think this goes back to John's overall playing style....he never plays the "long" game - he's always trying to win decisive victories without consideration if, things go badly, that the losses could be catastrophic (or at least heavily damaging) to his overall position.

Committing heavy ships in an area where one doesn't have air superiority - and in the face of multiple carriers, just fits into his pattern of always needing to "do something offensively" when the smart play would be to conserve resources and wait for a more opportune moment to strike.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

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Post #: 7970

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 6:27:56 PM

Cap Mandrake

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I thought "do not refuel" only worked at ports?

Interesting. Doesn't the AI override when you reach bingo fuel?

Other "tricks":

-Retire
-Chose a start hex that allow the TF to reach the objective at night
-Normal speed
-Set home base to something close so the AI calculates fuel reserves differently
-Choose the shortest ingress/egress (if it is a close call) even if you have to cross enemy hexes or coastal hexes
-Detach escorts that are too low on fuel

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Post #: 7971

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 6:30:13 PM

Cap Mandrake

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quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

I think this goes back to John's overall playing style....he never plays the "long" game - he's always trying to win decisive victories without consideration if, things go badly, that the losses could be catastrophic (or at least heavily damaging) to his overall position.

Committing heavy ships in an area where one doesn't have air superiority - and in the face of multiple carriers, just fits into his pattern of always needing to "do something offensively" when the smart play would be to conserve resources and wait for a more opportune moment to strike.

Sometimes being aggressive works and sometimes it doesn't. What would be really great is if you could tell ahead of time.

This seems to fall into the second category.

< Message edited by Cap Mandrake -- 11/15/2016 6:31:06 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 6:38:43 PM

jwolf

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Just from a risk/reward point of view, I would think the bombardment would be inadvisable under these conditions unless it were part of a larger operation for more widespread attacks and disruption on your bases. As it is, he was throwing a rock into a beehive. Best case, he kills a few and makes a clean escape. Worst case ... very painful.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 6:54:01 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Boela, 1944...the Royal Boela Hotel (20 cent Mai Tais) and beach facilities with the surfing school are just beyond the picture in the foreground. You can see the pit BBQ for the luau in the background.

That explains the black smoke at the top of the picture .... a crude-oil-fired BBQ!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 7974

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 6:57:37 PM

Canoerebel

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During lunch, my thoughts ran very much along the lines of what jwolf just said (and also touching on what others have said).

A single bombardment of a major Big Tent base wasn't going to accomplish anything (except perhaps venting some steam). John might be have been able to reduce one or more of the bases when Death Star left, but an occasional attack wasn't going to be meaningful. Moreover, by deploying KB far away, he gave me a bit of a cushion so that I moved Death Star forward. So rather than maximizing an environment in which he might succeed, he detracted from it by diverting his strongest asset, then moving another asset forward into an uncertain, unstable and potentially hostile environment.

I can understand John's desire to do something, anything, to effectively strike. I believe there was some merit to his plan to bushwhack Death Star in the Torres Strait, given what he knew at the time (but I think it was a mistake to assume that DS was involved in a relatively short-lived mission).

At this point, his best course of action (or the one that I would fear the most, though I wouldn't really "fear" it) would be to position KB somewhere in friendly waters simply to keep me honest while awaiting fortune to smile on him in the form of a sub crippling a carrier or LBA getting in a good strike. Then he might be able to configured a combined strike (combat ships, carriers, LBA) in an environment that might give him a fighting chance. There would even be a chance - slim but measurable - that something could go badly wrong for the Allies. (In that event, if John still controlled the Torres Strait, I might be in a real pickle with all my ships and men relatively isolated and perhaps having to fight it out.) But even if something didn't go seriously awry for the Allies, eventually Death Star would retire. Then John's assets would be in a position to attack into Big Tent in some meaningful way.

As for me, every time I stumble across that thought about "what would happen if I suffered a mishap before taking the Torres Strait?" it serves as a splash of cold water reminding me to attend to that sooner rather than later.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/15/2016 6:59:14 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 7:02:58 PM

Cap Mandrake

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The discussion about risk/reward implies a good data set and a dispassionate assessment.

The first part was probably true.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 7:05:47 PM

jwolf

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quote:

As for me, every time I stumble across that thought about "what would happen if I suffered a mishap before taking the Torres Strait?" it serves as a splash of cold water reminding me to attend to that sooner rather than later.

FWIW I agree completely. Other plays may have larger upsides, but this is the safety play to avoid the only type of disaster that is seriously possible at this point.

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Post #: 7977

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 7:06:01 PM

Cap Mandrake

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Sometimes you just can't help yourself from blipping the throttle on wet pavement.

I think John has that streak.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 7:18:02 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The discussion about risk/reward implies a good data set and a dispassionate assessment.

The first part was probably true.

The data has been there but John just does not have the imagination to put it together in a narrative about attending to logistics in a defined area. His hit and run style prompted him to believe CR would behave similarly and after dropping his troops in the DEI, head for the Torres Strait. CR's reversal of the DS course ruined his assumptions about where to set up an ambush.

I imagine he had some idea that DS went to Boela but by no means could he imagine that it would come back north to support a logistics mission - i.e. he would not have had such a follow-up to boost supply to troops left hanging so CR should not have either! He's a boxer dancing around looking for an opening when his opponent tries to strike, but his opponent is keeping his guard up and just going where he wants. I can only imagine his frustration ...

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 7979

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/15/2016 10:51:03 PM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I thought "do not refuel" only worked at ports?

Interesting. Doesn't the AI override when you reach bingo fuel?

Other "tricks":

-Retire
-Chose a start hex that allow the TF to reach the objective at night
-Normal speed
-Set home base to something close so the AI calculates fuel reserves differently
-Choose the shortest ingress/egress (if it is a close call) even if you have to cross enemy hexes or coastal hexes
-Detach escorts that are too low on fuel

So, after reading the manual on the fuel consumption... it is not actually the Full Speed setting itself that determines how much fuel your ships burn. It is the number of hexes moved. I will set to Full to make sure my guys retire as far as possible from the base, although typically the danger area is around only 3-5 hexes from the target base (assuming I knocked out its airfield) so Mission usually suffices.

Also, the home base changing to something else so you can control the direction of the retirement is good.

Direct/Absolute routing settings. Coastal as needed (e.g., to avoid certain hexes).

Do NOT use waypoints.

If you set to "Do Not Refuel", no ships will refuel ever. Even if they hit 0 Endurance.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)

Post #: 7980

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